Morning News: IMF-govt talks conclude – By Darson Research

Nov 18 2024


Darson Securities


  • The IMF team, the sources said, stressed the need to implement tax targets and the National Fiscal Pact. The talks covered a wide range of economic issues, including provincial budgets, tax reforms, and foreign financing arrangements, where the Fund was convinced by provincial budget surplus. IMF stressed upon accelerating tax revenue collection to meet the tax target of Rs12,970 billion for the current financial year. The IMF team also urged for the collection of taxes on agricultural income starting January 2025.
  • The IMF shared its "preliminary findings" through the press release and stated that the detailed findings in the shape of the report would be presented before the Executive Board. The IMF's mission chief stated that Pakistan and the IMF staff "agreed with the need to continue prudent fiscal and monetary policies, revenue mobilization from untapped tax bases, while transferring greater social and development responsibilities to provinces". The issues that Nathan mentioned after the emergency visit are the ones where Pakistan is lagging behind the commitments, said the sources.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked Pakistan to decrease State intervention in the economy and enhance competition, which will help foster the development of a dynamic private sector. After conclusion, the Fund issued a statement which noted that based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

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Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Morning News: Govt to stay firm on IMF commitments: Aurangzeb - By Darson Research

Jan 29 2025


Darson Securities


  • Minister for Finance Mohammad Aurangzeb made it clear on Tuesday that the government would stick to the commitments made with the IMF under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). He also hinted that the tax burden on salaried class might be rationalised in the coming budget.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday advised Pakistan to stay on course and show some patience amid growing demand from the private sector to open up the economy to create jobs and reduce unemployment.
  • The World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, emphasised on Tuesday that the $20 billion lending will be insufficient to achieve the 10 years' development goals, and Pakistan will have to mobilise more resources to overcome its challenges.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern that recently saw a breakdown. Price has moved below the lower trendline, signaling a possible bearish continuation.
  • Pivotal point around 115,345 is acting as a major resistance, CPR resistance at upper band around 114410. On the flip side CPR support at lower band around 113250. If it fails to honor, then it may retest Support around 112675 or even 111625.
Morning News: Bulk of Pakistan’s foreign debt repayment for FY25 already repaid: SBP chief - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • In a press conference held to announce the key interest rate, the SBP chief also said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided on a cut of 100 basis points, keeping in mind the inflation outlook and other developments. Meanwhile, responding to a query after the briefing, the SBP governor said Pakistan’s foreign debt that was due to be repaid during the current fiscal year was $26.1 billion. Out of this, an amount to the tune of $16 billion in loans will either be rolled or repaid. “An amount of $12.3 billion is rollovers agreed with the lenders, whereas $3.7 billion are commercial loans, which will also be repaid and refinanced,” he said.
  • Pakistan’s central bank is progressing with the issuance of new design currency notes, with the first new banknote expected to be released by the end of this year. The release of the new notes would occur in phases but did not disclose which specific denomination would be released first. “All currency notes will be issued gradually, but we are still in the final stages of approval,” he stated.
  • The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has facilitated the energy sector by opening gas market for the private sector, which is expected to contribute Rs71 billion per year to circular debt reduction. Additionally, the government will collect Rs13 billion annually on account of sales tax. Circular debt, which has plagued the energy sector for decades, has now crossed Rs1.6 trillion. Exploration and production (E&P) companies are owed $700 million owing to delay in payments by clients and gas curtailment. The recent decision of selling 35% gas, found by exploration firms, to a third party will help to resolve such non-payment issues. Earlier, oil and gas exploration companies were allowed to sell 10% of gas to third parties, which the current government increased to 35% in a bid to open the market and improve cash flow for energy firms.
Morning News: Policy rate cut hopes rise as weekly inflation hits decade’s low - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan’s inflationary pressures appear to be easing at a fast pace, as the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of just 0.52 percent for the week ending January 23, raising hopes of a possible policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan next week.
  • Pakistan must simplify regulations and make its economic outlook predictable to attract more investment and significantly spur growth, according to a senior official from the World Bank quoted by Bloomberg. The South Asian country can see its annual growth rate accelerate to as much as 8pc if it doubles investment and better utilizes its assets and human capital, Martin Raiser, the bank’s vice president for South Asia, said in an interview in Islamabad on Friday.
  • Currency market experts have warned that the absence of channels for attracting dollar inflows could pressure the rupee as the government may need to borrow from commercial banks at higher interest rates to meet its debt repayment obligations. They also noted that the US dollar is gaining strength against major Asian and European currencies following Donald Trump’s taking over as the 47th president of the world’s largest economy. This could further contribute to weakening the rupee, which has remained stable against the greenback for over a year thanks to some stringent measures, including restricting outflows and a crackdown against smuggling.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Daily Chart 27 January 2025, Monday - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index is currently trading around 114880 after making high of 115779 within strong rejection, and Failed to re-enter into Ascending channel on Hourly chart, mentioned in previous post.
  • Now it’s moving in a Symmetrical triangle on daily time frame in which Breakout trajectory (BT) is Between 114990 and 115870. The market is currently in a range-bound phase within CPR levels, Upper Band (UB) 114720, Middle Band (MB) 114300 and Lower Band (LB) 113660.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 23 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 23 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index has broken the ascending trendline, after a strong rejection around 115040 at Pivotal point, led to a sharp decline. Short-term bearish pressure is dominant after breaking CPR support around 114725, Indicating a potential short-term bearish move.
  • Currently, it is testing trendline support near CPR support around 113,640. Support Levels:(Trendline Support) around 113,060 (Lower Support) 111,600 (Pivotal Point) RSI at 31.68, approaching the oversold zone, suggesting a possible pull back.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 16 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index remains in a consolidation phase, and hovering around the CPR levels Upper Band (UB) around 114,680, Middle band (MB) around 113935 and Lower Band (LB) around 113190. A sustained move below these levels could trigger further downside.
  • Index is still facing rejection from the descending trendline resistance at 115,820, indicating strong selling pressure near this level, while 114300 is a decisive level for further upside or more downside.
  • Support levels at 113,935 (marked by yellow dotted lines) may act as key levels to watch for potential reversals. Volume: Declining volume indicates reduced participation, signaling caution.
Morning News: World Bank approves $20 billion loan – By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank board has approved a $20 billion loan package for Pakistan, but the framework document stated there will be challenges in its successful implementation due to political divisions and a worsening security situation in two provinces. The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the 2025-2035 period lists the political divide in Pakistan and the deteriorating security situation in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) as "critical" risks to the successful implementation of the $20 billion official lending package.
  • Saudi Development Fund (SDF) could invest over $100 million in Pakistan's mining infrastructure, said kingdom Mining Minister Bandar Alkhorayef on Wednesday. He also confirmed that Saudi mining company Manara Minerals was looking at investing in Pakistan's Reko Diq mine.
  • Pakistan’s model of growth — dominated by (public) consumption, high levels of debt, low productivity and poor capital accumulation — is increasingly unsustainable and requires measures to increase investment and productivity, while heavily investing in human capital accumulation to increase the country’s long-term growth potential, says the World Bank.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto Industry Showing Signs Of Recovery – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) released latest production and sales data for the month of Dec-24. The passenger car sales enhanced by 60% on YoY for Dec-24 (not including Jeeps, IMV’s, Pickups) as 7,864 units were sold as compared to 6,410 units in Dec-23. Further on MoM basis there was a decline seen of 1% as 7,864 cars were sold against 7,909 cars in the previous month. The incline on (YoY) sales was due to higher consumer demand amid declining interest rates.
  • Honda Atlas Cars posted stable figures on MoM for Dec-24 as the company sold 1,110 units as compared to 1,112 units in previous month. The company grew by an impressive 23% on YoY basis as 1,110 cars were sold in Dec-24 as compared to 901 in the SPLY. This growth was due to the increase in Civic/City category and BR-V and HR-V variants which both grew by 23%.
  • Indus Motors showed a decline of 25% on YoY basis as the company sold 1,655 units as compared to 2,194 units in the previous period of Dec-23. The company posted an impressive growth of 142% on YoY basis as 1,655 units were sold as compared to 684 in the SPLY. This was driven by the Corolla, Yaris Cross category which went ↑109% and by the Fortuner category ↑ 284%. This impressive growth was due to the reasons mentioned above plus Corolla Cross has had a positive response from the market which should provide support to the company's sales moving forward.
Morning News: WB pledges $40bn to Pakistan under 10-year framework – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank (WB) has pledged to provide $40 billion to Pakistan under the 10-year Country Partnership Framework (CPF), according to sources in the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Out of the total $40 billion, $20 billion would be provided through International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
  • Saudi Arabian mining company Manara Minerals could invest in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine in the next two quarters. Manara, a joint venture between state-controlled miner Ma’aden and the $925-billion Public Investment Fund (PIF), was set up as part of the kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil, including by buying minority stakes in assets overseas.
  • Pakistan plans to issue Yuan-denominated Panda Bonds by June 2025 to enhance its capital market integration with China, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb said.