United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025

Insight Securities

• UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.

• Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.

• Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.

United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025

Topline Securities

• United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.

• UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.

• The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).

United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025

Taurus Securities

• 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.

• Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.

• Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24

Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025

Taurus Securities

• Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.

• Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively

• Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.

Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025

Ismail Iqbal Securities

• We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.

• Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.

Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025

Taurus Securities

• Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025

• 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.

• Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards

Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025

Pearl Securities

• We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.

• Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.

• Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025

JS Global Capital

• The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.

Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025

Taurus Securities

• 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.

• Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.

• Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.

Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025

AKD Securities

• AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.

• We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.

• Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.