Pakistan Economy: Sep-24 LSM declines, hopes pinned on ongoing easing – By JS Research

Nov 18 2024


JS Global Capital


  • According to the latest report by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) recorded a 1.9% YoY decrease in Sep-2024, second month of negative growth after a YoY increase in Jul-2024.
  • The overall growth was negative, however, notable improvement continued in many pivotal sectors during Sep-2024. Negative growth in sectors like Non-Metallic Minerals (-18.1%), Iron & Steel (-10.7%), and Chemical Products (-14.6%) reflects ongoing challenges within the sectors.
  • A disinflation trend creates a favorable environment for prospective LSM growth by likely improving demand, and stabilizing production. Rationalized imports and continuing increase in energy costs remain key downside risks to LSM growth outlook.

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United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: FCCL & KOHC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) and Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC).
  • We expect FCCL and KOHC to post earnings of Rs1.02/share and Rs12.89/share, reflecting growth of 41% and 23% YoY, respectively. This improvement is primarily driven by higher gross margins — up 3.3ppt YoY for FCCL and 8.5ppts for KOHC — supported by higher retention prices and lower coal costs during 3QFY25 compared to 3QFY24.
  • The proposed increase in limestone royalty rates in KPK, aligning them with those in Punjab, is expected to weigh negatively on both companies. However, reduction in power tariffs may partially offset this impact, given both companies' significant reliance on the national grid.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 expected to test support at the 50-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index remained under pressure throughout the session as it closed at 114,853 level, down 1,336 points DoD. Volumes stood at 459mn shares compared to 638mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at the 50-DMA currently at 114,300; a fall below will cause the downtrend to resume. However, any upside will face resistance at 115,473 (30-DMA) where a break above that targeting the 115,930-116,650 range. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay ‘long’ above the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 114,350 and 115,647 levels, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Apr 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed down 1.2% at 114,853, snapping Thursday's rally. The index hit a session low of 114,640 points, marking intraday decline of 1.3%. The market slid amid global economic uncertainty, declining cement sales, rupee instability, and falling crude oil prices, all compounded by concerns over the US-China trade war. Despite the broader market dip, the pharma sector outperformed, closing entirely in the green. Looking ahead, investor focus remains on the trajectory of the IMF program, upcoming budget policies, and int’l commodity price trends, which will shape market sentiment.
SYS Limited (SYS): Eyes strong growth in the MENA region - By JS Research

Apr 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • SYS Limited (SYS) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss CY24 financial performance and outlook. On a consolidated basis, the company reported a 1.15x decline in EPS to Rs25.55, largely attributable to exchange losses. SYS also announced a stock split in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
  • SYS reported 26% YoY growth in revenue during CY24 where revenue contribution from MENA region (59% share in the revenue pie) jumped by 35% YoY led by timely expansions to exploit the growth opportunity in the region, mainly Saudi Arabia.
  • Strengthening of workforce, diversification of labour with locations in MENA through Egypt and scaling its ‘Capability Centers of Excellence’ (COEs), should enable the company to achieve 26% YoY growth in revenues (CY25E) and gradually improve gross margins by up to 5% in the next few years, as per the management guidelines.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue 100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a recovery closing at 116,189, up 2,036 points. Volumes stood at 638mn shares compared to 449mn shares traded in the previous session. The support is present at the 30-DMA currently at 115,455, followed by the 50-DMA at 114,300. However, any upside will revisit yesterday’s high of 117,484; a break above can fill the upward gap at 118,718, followed by 120,797. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,718 and 117,072 levels, respectively.
Cement: Mar-2025 Local dispatches decline 11% YoY - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches for Mar-2025 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, reflecting a 9% YoY decline, primarily due to an 11% drop in local dispatches in both the North and South regions amid Ramadan season. While export dispatches remained relatively flat YoY during the month as a 23% YoY increase in Southern exports was offset by an 85% decline in North exports.
  • Cement prices in the North region continued their upward trend during the month, rising by Rs50–60/bag to approximately Rs1,400/bag – taking the cumulative increase to approximately Rs90/bag.
  • Additionally, the government’s announced power tariff reduction of Rs7.59/unit is expected to benefit grid-reliant players such as FCCL, KOHC, and ACPL having an impact of 6.8%, 4.6% and 8.6% on FY26E EPS.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 fall below key averages; cautious - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bears dominated the session as the KSE-100 index posted a loss of 1,379 points to close at 114,153 level. Volumes stood at 449mn shares versus 531mn shares traded previously. The Index has dropped below the 50-DMA and the 30-DMA that will now restrict upside at 114,257 and 115,342 levels, respectively. However, a fall below 112,891 will extend the decline to the recent low of 110,104 level. The RSI and MACD have shown weakness, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to remain cautious at higher levels and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 112,999 and 115,200 levels.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.