AGP Ltd (AGP): Unlocking value through strong growth; Buy – By JS Research
Nov 19 2024
JS Global Capital
- We reinstate coverage on AGP Ltd (AGP) with a Target Price of Rs220/share; implying an upside of 48% from current levels
- strong growth trajectory - AGP is well-positioned for 5-year revenue CAGR of 16% (CY24-CY29E), driven by its robust product portfolio, expanding distribution network, and strategic acquisitions (Sandoz and Viatris).
- cost optimization and industry-leading margins – with expectations to maintain next 5-year average gross margins at 59%, vis-à-vis historical 5-year average gross margins of 55%.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Recovery to continue – By JS Research
Dec 23 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index after making a low of 105,601 recovered during the day, closing in at 109,513 level, up 3,238 points DoD. Volumes stood at 755mn shares versus 1,167mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test resistance at 109,847 (Friday's high) where a break above that will target 111,320, followed by 114,591. However, any downside will find support between 106,800 and 108,320 levels where a fall below that will target 105,601 level. We recommend investors to view any downside as an opportunity to 'Buy', with risk defined below 105,601. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 106,793 and 111,040, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, China capital markets to deepen ties – By Vector Research
Dec 23 2024
Vector Securities
- A high-level delegation from Pakistan's capital markets, led by Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) Chairman Akif Saeed, visited China recently. During the one-week visit, the delegation engaged with key Chinese financial institutions, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and others.
- Chinese company ADM Group has unveiled a major investment of $350 million in Pakistan, with backing from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). As part of the initiative, ADM Group plans to establish more than 3,000 electric vehicle (EV) charging stations across the country. The project will see 1,000 stations set up in Sindh, 1,500 in Punjab, and 750 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
- The Punjab government is seeking a loan of $210 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for developing resilient environments and advancing municipal services in the province.
Morning News: Pakistan, China capital markets to deepen ties – By Darson Research
Dec 23 2024
Darson Securities
- A high-level delegation from Pakistan's capital markets, led by Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) Chairman Akif Saeed, visited China recently. During the one week visit, the delegation engaged with key Chinese financial institutions, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and others
- Chinese company ADM Group has unveiled a major investment of $350 million in Pakistan, with backing from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). As part of the initiative, ADM Group plans to establish more than 3,000 electric vehicle (EV) charging stations across the country. The project will see 1,000 stations set up in Sindh, 1,500 in Punjab, and 750 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
- The Punjab government is seeking a loan of $210 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for developing resilient environments and advancing municipal services in the province.
Annual Strategy: Market Strategy 2025 Inflation likely to remain in single digits for most of CY2025 – By Chase Research
Dec 20 2024
- Inflation expected to remain in single digits for most of CY2025.
- Central Bank to continue easing. We consider single digit interest rates a high possibility in 2025.
- Current Account should not present a challenge as improved remittances, recovering exports and administrative measures to keep balance in check.
- Pakistan Credit Ratings could improve in 2025 unlocking flows and strengthening PKR.
Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research
Dec 20 2024
Taurus Securities
- Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF) is a subsidiary of Packages Limited which holds 69.3% of the Company. TRIPF produces Biaxially Oriented and Cast Polypropylene (BOPP & CPP) packaging films for food and beverage applications such as snacks, confectionery, dairy food, fresh cut vegetables, beverages etc., and non-food applications such as overwrapping, lamination, bag making etc. TRIPF has annual capacities of 78,000 tons for BOPP, 14,400 tons for CPP, and 32,600 tons for Metallizers.
- TRIPF boasts a product portfolio of 19 specialized films, these include: Low Sealing Temperature Film, Ultra Low Temperature Sealable Film, Tobacco Non-Coated Transparent Wrap, Anti-Fog Films, Perforated Film, Matt Film, In Mould Labels, Low Density Label Film, High Gloss Label Film, Broad Seal High Barrier, Ultra High Barrier Metallized Film, Heat Resistive BOPP Film, Cold Seal, BOPE, BOPP Super Barrier Film, CPP High Speed Lamination Film, Paper Bond Film, CPP Metallized Low Temperature Heat Sealable Film, and CPP Metallized High Barrier Film.
- As of 9MCY24, TRIPF’s revenue increased to PKR 21.8Bn compared to PKR 18.5Bn during the SPLY. Gross margin was recorded at 13% compared to 18% during the SPLY. The loss for the period was recorded at PKR 291Mn compared to a net profit of PKR 830Mn in the SPLY. The main reason cited for the loss during the year by the management was finance costs. Finance costs during 9MCY24 were recorded at PKR 1.7Bn compared to only PKR 700Mn in the SPLY. In addition to these, the gas tariff also increased by 110%.
Annual Strategy: Pakistan Market Strategy 2025 Breaking Barriers: KSE-100 Marches Toward 148K – By Sherman Research
Dec 20 2024
Sherman Securities
- Pakistan’s KSE 100 index is all set to generate total return of 40%, breaching 148k level during CY25. Market is expected to reach target PE of 8x in line with last 10-year average PE versus current PE of 6.1x. Target PE of 8x is justified considering Pakistan’s economic outlook as most of the indicators are in line with average of last 10 years.
- After meeting all the key performance indicators specially during last 2 years (maintaining primary budget surplus, tight monetary policy, energy sector reforms and regulating FX market), Pakistan is now looking at raising tax to GDP which is expected to be key performance criterion for timely disbursement under new IMF Program of US$7bn.
- With inflation to remain below historical average and lower risk to external accounts during IMF Program, we expect policy rate to remain around 10% during next 2 years. Considering ample institutional liquidity, we expect diversion of Rs1.2-1.5trn funds (40% of the free float of KSE-100 Index) during CY25 from fixed income to equity market. Not only this, stable currency and cheap valuations will induce Foreigners’ interest in Pakistan market as they have been net sellers so far.
Economy: Recent PSX rally led by local funds buying Thanks to the falling return on fixed income instruments – By Topline Research
Dec 20 2024
Topline Securities
- Pakistan Market since Sep 2024 to-date has returned 35% in both Rs and US$ terms, thanks to the strong net inflows of Rs58bn (US$207mn) of local mutual funds during the same period mainly due to conversion from fixed income to equities. In this note, we have tried to gauge the expected quantum of further liquidity market can receive due to conversion from fixed income to equities.
- The funds/investors are converting from Fixed income to equities as yields on fixed income instruments have fallen by 1253bps-1261bps from peak of 24.73% and 24.51% on 12M and 6M Treasury Bills in Sep 2023 to 12.20% and 11.9% on Dec 19, 2024.
- Equities will remain the preferred choice for investors: Unlike previous years where investors use to buy dollars, real estate, gold, prize bonds etc. for earning higher returns, we believe, in this cycle equities will get some portion of liquidity due to (1) higher restrictions on purchase of dollars, (2) increase in taxations, compliance and FBR valuation rates of properties, and (3) discontinuation of high denomination unregistered prize bonds.
Textiles: Increased imports vital for export growth – By JS Research
Dec 20 2024
JS Global Capital
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised cotton demand forecasts for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, likely offsetting the projected decline in Chinese demand as Western importers continue diversifying their sourcing away from China and Bangladesh. Consequently, Pakistan's prospects for value-added exports, such as knitwear and ready-made garments, have improved, albeit at the expense of lower yarn exports to China.
- During 5MFY25, exports of knitwear, bedwear, and garments are up ~20% YoY while yarn exports are down 39%. On the other hand, Pakistan’s domestic cotton output is expected to fall to around 6-8mn bales (-36% to -17% YoY) due to 17% decline in cotton sowing area and lower crop yields.
- To meet the cotton requirement for the export demand, Pakistan is expected to import 5mn bales of raw cotton, costing ~US$2bn (at current avg import prices) compared to merely 1.2mn bales or US$0.45bn in FY24.
Morning News: Pakistan’s exports rise 9.06% in five months, imports edge up 1.06%: PBS – By WE Research
Dec 20 2024
- Exports from Pakistan increased by 9.06% in the first five months of FY2024-25, reaching Rs. 3,816,094 million, compared to Rs. 3,499,216 million in the same period last year. In November 2024, exports rose 7.17% year-on-year to Rs. 787,152 million. Key export commodities included knitwear, rice, readymade garments, and bedwear. Imports during July–November FY2024-25 totaled Rs. 6,248,611 million, a 1.06% increase from the previous year. November imports declined by 1.03% to Rs. 1,255,209 million. Key imports included petroleum products, LNG, palm oil, plastic materials, and mobile phones. Month-on-month, both exports and imports showed modest changes.
- Pakistan and China agreed to build an expressway linking Gwadar Port with the new Gwadar International Airport and initiate feasibility studies for new motorways, including the Mirpur-Muzaffarabad and Karachi-Hyderabad routes, under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The agreement was made during a meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and China’s Vice Minister of Transport Li Ying in Beijing. Iqbal emphasized expediting major projects, including the KarachiHyderabad Section and ML-1 railway upgrade. He also proposed the Mashkhel-Panjgur Highway in Balochistan. Iqbal later met the President of the Export-Import Bank of China to discuss economic recovery and space projects. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the CPEC partnership for sustainable development and prosperity.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research
Dec 20 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed another negative session, closing at 106,275, down 4,795 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,167mn shares compared to 1,112mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at 105,937; a fall below this level will extend the decline towards 105,510, followed by 103,048. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 107,980-110,040 levels. The Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI are heading down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 104,226 and 110,034, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Recovery to continue – By JS Research
Dec 23 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index after making a low of 105,601 recovered during the day, closing in at 109,513 level, up 3,238 points DoD. Volumes stood at 755mn shares versus 1,167mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test resistance at 109,847 (Friday's high) where a break above that will target 111,320, followed by 114,591. However, any downside will find support between 106,800 and 108,320 levels where a fall below that will target 105,601 level. We recommend investors to view any downside as an opportunity to 'Buy', with risk defined below 105,601. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 106,793 and 111,040, respectively.
Textiles: Increased imports vital for export growth – By JS Research
Dec 20 2024
JS Global Capital
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised cotton demand forecasts for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, likely offsetting the projected decline in Chinese demand as Western importers continue diversifying their sourcing away from China and Bangladesh. Consequently, Pakistan's prospects for value-added exports, such as knitwear and ready-made garments, have improved, albeit at the expense of lower yarn exports to China.
- During 5MFY25, exports of knitwear, bedwear, and garments are up ~20% YoY while yarn exports are down 39%. On the other hand, Pakistan’s domestic cotton output is expected to fall to around 6-8mn bales (-36% to -17% YoY) due to 17% decline in cotton sowing area and lower crop yields.
- To meet the cotton requirement for the export demand, Pakistan is expected to import 5mn bales of raw cotton, costing ~US$2bn (at current avg import prices) compared to merely 1.2mn bales or US$0.45bn in FY24.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research
Dec 20 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed another negative session, closing at 106,275, down 4,795 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,167mn shares compared to 1,112mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at 105,937; a fall below this level will extend the decline towards 105,510, followed by 103,048. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 107,980-110,040 levels. The Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI are heading down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 104,226 and 110,034, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Momentum indicators generated Sell signal – By JS Research
Dec 19 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index extended the decline, closing at 111,070, down 3,790 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,112mn shares compared to 1,253mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's low of 110,896; a fall below this level will set the target at 109,708 which can later extend to 107,711. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 112,730-114,570; a break above these levels will target 117,039 (recent high). The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have generated a Sell signal, supporting a corrective view. Investors are advised to stay cautious on the higher side. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 109,232 and 114,573, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day December 18, 2024 – By JS Research
Dec 18 2024
JS Global Capital
- KSE-100 witnessed a significant decline, losing 3.3% DoD and closing in at 111,070 (down 3,790 points) after briefly reaching intraday high of 116,237 level. This decline is mainly attributable to the profit-taking activities observed in key sectors including automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas exploration, and refineries. WTL, CNERGY, BOP, PRL and PAEL were the leading volume drivers today. Concerns on the revenue collection shortfall, weak global crude oil prices, and unresolved IMF issues contributed to this bearish activity. Despite this decline, the market’s resilience and positive long-term fundamentals continue to offer a promising outlook for investors looking ahead.
Economy: 4th consecutive Current account surplus in Nov-2024 – By JS Research
Dec 18 2024
JS Global Capital
- Pakistan's current account balance continued its positive streak for the 4th consecutive month in Nov-2024, reporting surplus of US$729mn, taking 5MFY25 CA balance to US$944mn, primarily driven by higher remittances and controlled trade deficit.
- Combined with a positive Current account, the breakeven Capital account helped the Balance of Payments (BoP) remain in positive territory for 5MFY25, despite loan repayments. Consequently, SBP foreign exchange reserves reached a close to three-year high of US$12bn, and import cover improved to over 2.6x.
- For FY25, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) expects a current account balance within the lower end of the projected range of 0%–1% of GDP. The SBP's target for FY25 appears achievable in our view, given balanced trade deficit and stable remittance inflows.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Engulfing Bear - stay cautious – By JS Research
Dec 18 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session, closing at 114,861, down 1,309 points. Volumes stood at 1,253mn shares compared to 1,471mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's low of 113,689; a fall below this level will initiate a corrective trend with 112,375 and 109,708 in sight. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 115,200-116,700 as a break above that will target 118,330. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have shown weakness, suggesting a corrective trend ahead. Investors are recommended to stay cautious on the higher side. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 113,353 and 116,703, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: Fifth consecutive rate cut brings Policy rate to 13% - By JS Research
Dec 17 2024
JS Global Capital
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) sticks to its easing monetary policy, reducing the Policy Rate by an additional 200bps to 13% mainly influenced by declining inflation. This marks the fifth consecutive rate cut in the ongoing monetary easing cycle bringing cumulative reduction to 900bps from its peak of 22%.
- SBP Governor, in the post monetary policy briefing session, apprised that key economic indicators have been improving and external sector sustainability is strengthening. On the other hand, Forex reserves continue to rise, supported by robust remittances and increased exports. The FX inflows have so far exceeded previous projections, and it is likely that SBP's FX reserves clock in around US$13bn by Jun-2025.
- Continued growth in workers' remittances and exports, coupled with favorable international commodity prices, is expected to keep the current account deficit close to 0% of GDP for FY25.
Cement: Local dispatches show recovery in Nov-2024 – By JS Research
Dec 16 2024
JS Global Capital
- Cement dispatches for Nov-2024 stood at 4.15mn tons, reflecting a 6% YoY increase. On a MoM basis, however, dispatches declined by 6%, primarily due to a slowdown in local dispatches in the North, impacted by smog and political unrest/protests in the region. Additionally, export dispatches saw a significant decline, dropping 26% MoM.
- Despite a 2% YoY recovery in local cement dispatches in Nov-2024, 5MFY25 local dispatches fell 11% YoY due to subdued demand amid high prices. Consequently, total dispatches fell 5%YoY during 5MFY25 despite surge in exports (+ 29%YoY).
- We expect a rebound in domestic demand during latter part of FY25 mainly led by ongoing monetary easing, stable cement prices and other construction material prices. Nevertheless, the dispatches are likely to remain in negative territory during FY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Range bound activity expected – By JS Research
Dec 16 2024
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session, closing at 114,302, up 121 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,119mn shares compared to 1,470mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test resistance at Friday's high of 115,172; a break above this level will set the target at 118,330. However, any downside will find support in the range of 112,880-114,030; where a fall below these levels may initiate a corrective trend. Investors are recommended to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 112,883 and 115,446, respectively.
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