Bolan Castings Limited (BCL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Nov 22 2024



  • Tractor industry sales expected between 2.5-4k per month in 6 months’ time.
  • Impact of green tractor scheme has begun.
  • Cash flow situation is improving for BCL
Bolan Castings Limited (BCL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Nov 22 2024


Taurus Securities


  • BCL specializes in the production of castings for the tractor and automobile parts sectors in Pakistan. The company serves a broad customer base within the truck and tractor casting segments. In the tractor segment, BCL counts the two leading industry players, Millat Limited and Al-Ghazi Limited, among its customers. Additionally, in the truck and bus segment, BCL supplies castings to major players such as Ghandhara Industries Limited, Hinopak Motors Limited, and Ghandhara Automobiles Limited, accordingly supporting its position in the market.
  • For FY24, BCL reported a PAT of ~PKR 118Mn, up 3.5%YoY compared to a loss of ~PKR 24Mn in the same period last year. The positive growth in earnings is primarily attributed to increase in demand for tractors driven by favorable agricultural yields, as well as a recovery in truck and bus casting sales, which benefitted from improved sales volumes from the assemblers. Consequently, EPS rose to ~PKR 10.34 in FY24, compared to a Loss Per Share (LPS) of ~PKR 2.16 in FY23.
  • The Company’s management has also been commended for its successful cost-cutting initiatives, including a shift to locally sourced raw materials rather than imports. This strategic move led to a reduction in the cost of sales, resulting in an improvement in profit margins, which increased from 10% in FY23 to 17% in FY24. Management expects BCL’s margins to improve in the years ahead.
Bolan Castings Limited (BCL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Nov 22 2024



  • Tractor industry sales expected between 2.5-4k per month in 6 months’ time.
  • Impact of green tractor scheme has begun.
  • Cash flow situation is improving for BCL
Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
  • Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
  • FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports remained flat at US$4.8bn during Mar’25. This stability was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum and food sectors on a weighted average basis, while agriculture imports increased.
  • On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$42.7bn (up 9%YoY) during 9MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of machinery, textile and agriculture, while petroleum and food imports declined.
  • Exports increased to US$2.6bn (up 6%MoM) during Mar’24. Likewise, during 9MFY25, exports clocked in at US$24.7bn (up 8%YoY), mainly due to growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Pakistan Economy: Power sector circular debt resolution plan in the offing - By Foundation Research

Apr 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan's power sector has become a key challenge in the country's macroeconomic balancing act. Stabilizing the economy hinges on resolving power sector issues, which took center stage in recent IMF negotiations for the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. In a bid to settle the amount in a single go, the government has plans to inject Rs1.5 trillion to tackle the circular debt crisis, clearing overdue liabilities and paving the way for sector stability.
  • Commercial banks will provide nearly Rs1.275 trillion of the bailout package, despite already having significant exposure to the power sector's circular debt. The deal, negotiated between the government and banks, offers below-KIBOR interest rates, potentially saving the government 3-5% on debt servicing costs. Contrary to news flow of banks being pressured into the deal, top banking executives and government officials have assured that the agreement was reached mutually.
  • According to news flow, a term sheet was signed between the government and banks at a large commercial bank in Karachi, with disbursements slated to begin next month. This financial intervention aims to curb the energy crisis and prevent further debt accumulation.
Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.
  • Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.
  • We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.
Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY
  • In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By Vector Research

Apr 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s current account posted a record all-time high monthly surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, fueled by historic inflows of home remittances, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by 14 percent during the first nine months of this fiscal year (FY25). According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country fetched FDI amounting to $1.644 billion in July-March of FY25 compared to $1.442 billion in the same period of last fiscal year (FY24), showing an increase of $202 million. During the period under review, FDI inflows were $2.472 billion as against $828 million outflow.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $127 million to $10.57 billion during the week ended April 11 due to external debt repayments, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also decreased by $91 million to $15.66 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks increased by $36 million to $5.09 billion.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025



  • Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.
  • Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Chashma Sugar Mills Limited (CHAS): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Mar 19 2025



  • CHAS reported a net loss of PKR 2.64 billion (LPS: PKR 91.92) in SY24, compared to a net profit of PKR 1.70 billion (EPS: PKR 59.22) in the previous year. The loss was primarily driven by higher sugarcane prices and increased finance costs due to higher carryover stock and a lower recovery rate.
  • In 1QSY25, CHAS crushed 1,484,965 MT of sugarcane, producing 144,654 MT of sugar and 9,170 MT of ethanol. The crushing season concluded on March 3, 2025. Gross profit declined to PKR 2.22 billion, impacted by elevated sugarcane prices in SY24.
  • For SY24, CHAS produced 171,591 MT of sugar (SY23: 211,871 MT) and crushed 1,726,610 MT of sugarcane (SY23: 1,963,169 MT), with a recovery rate of 9.9% (SY23: 10.8%). Molasses consumption stood at 176,201 MT (SY23: 173,139 MT), while molasses production reached 34,443 MT (SY23: 33,899 MT) with a recovery rate of 19.55% (SY23: 19.58%).
Faran Sugar Mills Limited (FRSM): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Feb 26 2025



  • In SY24, FRSM reported a net loss of PKR 1.53 billion (LPS: PKR 61.30), compared to the previous year's net profit of PKR 1.22 billion (EPS: PKR 48.79).
  • Management reported that sugar prices remained depressed throughout the year due to the imposition of FED and an increase in WHT. Similarly, ethanol prices and demand in international markets remained subdued, keeping molasses prices under pressure.
  • In SY24, USC withheld PKR 529 million in payments and halted further lifting of goods worth PKR 579 million, causing liquidity constraints and higher finance costs. However, most payments were later received, except for bid money. The company has also recovered a major portion of overdue payments from USC, amounting to over PKR 400 million.
Loads Limited (LOADS): The Year of Alpha Loads Limited: Back on Track? - By Chase Research

Feb 6 2025



  • We are initiating coverage on Loads Limited (LOADS) with a Dec-25 fair value estimate of PKR 29.17 per share, derived using a discounted cashflow model. At its current price, the stock offers a compelling 55% upside potential. It is currently trading at a FY26 P/E of 4.7x. BUY.
  • Our investment thesis is driven by several compelling factors:
  • SBP, driven by declining inflation, is expected to boost auto sales, especially in the sub-1000cc segment. LOADS, as a key parts supplier to OEMs in this category, is wellpositioned to benefit disproportionately from this recovery.
JDW Sugar Mills Limited (JDWS): CORPORATE BRIEFING NOTES - BY Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • JDW Sugar Mills Limited achieved earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 225.2 in SY24, marking a substantial increase compared to PKR 37.1 in SY23.
  • 0In 9MSY24, the company reported an EPS of PKR 144.9, a significant improvement from PKR 25.3 recorded during the same period last year (SPLY).
  • The company’s corporate farms contribute 7-10% of the group’s total annual sugarcane requirement.
Noon Sugar Mills Limited (NONS): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • In FY24, Noon Sugar Mills Limited (NONS) reported a net loss of PKR 619.45 million (LPS: PKR 37.50), a significant decline from the net profit of PKR 419.31 million (EPS: PKR 25.39) recorded in FY23. The loss was attributed to a higher sugarcane price of PKR 470 per maund and volatility in the USD-PKR exchange rate, as molasses was procured at elevated rates before the exchange rate reversed, compounding the losses.
  • The company crushed 712,164 M.Tons of sugarcane in FY24, compared to 807,367 M.Tons in FY23. Despite the reduction, NONS achieved its highest-ever average sucrose recovery of 10.30%, ranking second or third in Punjab for FY24. Sugar production stood at 73,597 M.Tons, slightly lower than the 75,717 M.Tons produced in FY23. Alcohol production also declined to 13,429 M.Tons in FY24 from 18,334 M.Tons in FY23.
  • Total assets increased significantly to PKR 9.08 billion in FY24, up from PKR 6.17 billion in FY23, primarily due to major capital expenditures, including the acquisition of a 100 M.Tons boiler from HMC and a 10MW turbine. The management anticipates improved fuel and cost efficiency regarding bagasse usage.
Chenab Limited (CHBL): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 27 2025



  • In FY24, Chenab Limited (CHBL) reported a net loss of PKR 326.21 million (LPS: PKR 2.84) compared to a net loss of PKR 405.14 million (LPS: PKR 3.52) in the SPLY. In 1QFY25, the company recorded a net loss of PKR 111.82 million (LPS: PKR 0.97), higher than the net loss of PKR 45.03 million (LPS: PKR 0.39) in the SPLY.
  • The management disclosed that Chenab Limited is operating at 25% unit utilization. To optimize production capacity, the company is engaged in toll manufacturing of fabrics for the local market.
  • Gross profit for FY24 stood at PKR 10.87 million, impacted by higher fixed costs. The increase in freight costs, driven by the Red Sea crisis, further escalated selling and distribution expenses.
Annual Strategy: Market Strategy 2025 Inflation likely to remain in single digits for most of CY2025 – By Chase Research

Dec 20 2024



  • Inflation expected to remain in single digits for most of CY2025.
  • Central Bank to continue easing. We consider single digit interest rates a high possibility in 2025.
  • Current Account should not present a challenge as improved remittances, recovering exports and administrative measures to keep balance in check.
  • Pakistan Credit Ratings could improve in 2025 unlocking flows and strengthening PKR.
Emco Industries Limited (EMCO): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Dec 13 2024



  • Emco Industries reported net sales of PKR 4,192 million for FY24, reflecting an 18% year-over-year (YoY) increase compared to PKR 3,546 million in FY23. However, 1QFY25 sales sharply declined by 40% YoY to PKR 756 million, down from PKR 1,260 million in 1QFY24, due slowdown in demand.
  • Gross profit grew 17% YoY to PKR 1,124 million, maintaining a stable gross margin of 27%. Gross profit plummeted by 83% to PKR 70 million. This led to a significant contraction in the gross margin to 9%, from 32% in 1QFY24.
  • EPS declined by 25% YoY to PKR 6.26 in FY24 from PKR 8.37 in FY23, while no dividends were declared for the year, compared to a payout of PKR 0.50 per share in the prior period. In 1QFY25, EPS turned negative at PKR -1.96, reflecting the net loss during the quarter.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Dec 5 2024



  • Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM) reported a net profit of PKR 2.66 billion (EPS: PKR 1.76) in 9MCY24. This represents a 45% decline from a net profit of PKR 4.84 billion (EPS: PKR 3.20) in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • Revenue for 9MCY24 increased by 43% year-on-year to PKR 88.98 billion, compared to PKR 62.14 billion in 9MCY23. The trading of Acetic Acid contributed gross profit of PKR 358 million during 9MCY24. The price of Acetic Acid ranged between $450 and $500 per ton during the period.
  • LOTCHEM is the sole producer of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Pakistan, with an annual production capacity of 500 KT. Approximately 40% of the company’s sales are made to Novatex Limited.
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