Morning News: Rs190bn lost daily due to opposition’s protest call – By Taurus Research

Nov 25 2024


Taurus Securities


  • Finance minister: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said that Rs190 billion are lost daily due to the opposition’s call for protest.
  • Pakistan has signed as many as 82 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with friendly countries to export defence products and equipment including advanced drones, fighter jets, commercial and logistic ships, electronic warfare equipment and radars worth US$30 billion.
  • Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal has directed the concerned authorities to complete Balochistan’s road infrastructure projects at a cost of Rs400 billion within next three years.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW) held it's corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results for 3QFY25 and share the company's future outlook.
  • SAZEW plans to complete its four-wheeler manufacturing expansion by March 2026 and introduce new NEV models. The company will also focus on expanding its export markets (mainly three wheelers) and the local dealership network. Sazgar currently has a network of 20 four-wheeler dealers, with expansion underway as new centers in Mardan and Peshawar are set to open soon.
  • The production capacity of the company will increase from 40-50 cars a day to 90-100 cars a day post expansion.
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Economy: Pakistan Federal Budget FY26 Preview Fiscal consolidation to continue; Third consecutive year of primary surplus - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Fiscal consolidation to continue: Pakistan is set to announce Federal Budget FY26 on Jun 02, 2025. We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net. Furthermore, we believe, this Budget FY26 hold high importance from policy point of view as various additional legislative engagements are likely to be undertaken i.e. inclusion of Section 114c, National Tariff Policy, Captive Power Levy Ordinance, removing cap on Debt Servicing Surcharge (DSS) amongst others.
  • Government’s commitment to IMF for FY26 Budget: Government has committed with IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability. The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for third consecutive year after 2 decades. The govt. has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt.
  • FBR FY26 Tax revenue growth target could be lowest in 6 years: FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3tn, up 16-18% YoY, which will be a lowest % growth in last 6 years. FBR has achieved 5-year revenue CAGR of 25% from FY21-25. We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, ~12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600bn, we estimate.
Power: Apr’25 generation up 22%YoY / 25%MoM - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Power generation in Apr’25 clocked in at 10,511GWh, reflecting a 22%YoY increase and a 25%MoM jump, driven by seasonal recovery in demand as temperatures rose. This marks a significant rebound from Mar’25, when generation stood at 8,409GWh, following a dip to 6,945GWh in February due to winter-related slowdown in both household and industrial consumption.
  • Cumulatively, 10MFY25 power generation stood at 100,658GWh, reflecting a slight 0.3% YoY decline compared to 100,966GWh in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation saw a sharp rebound, increasing by 78%MoM and 11%YoY, contributing 2,306GWh—driven by higher power demand. Coal-based generation, which was the highest contributor in the mix, surged 1.9xYoY to 2,579GWh and rose 33%MoM— likely due to improved plant availability and lower global coal prices. However, nuclear generation declined by 8%YoY and 15% MoM, contributing 1,882GWh. Meanwhile, generation from expensive sources like furnace oil and HSD dropped to just 1% of the mix, in line with the Government’s continued shift toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Pakistan Power: Power generation marks highest YoY growth since Apr-2022 - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per latest data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Power generation during Apr-2025 clocked in at 10,513GWh, posting a significant increase of 22% YoY. Cumulatively, power generation during 10MFY25 remained flat with a marginal dip of 0.4% YoY, clocking-in at ~100,661GWh.
  • Average cost of generation for Apr-2025 stood at Rs8.95/kWh, remaining flat YoY. Nevertheless, on a sequential basis, average cost dipped 3%.
  • The sequential decline in generation cost is mainly attributable to higher contribution from Hydel plants in generation which stood at 22% in the energy mix during Apr-2025 compared to 15% during the last month.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 entering the resistance range - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 119,931, up 960 points DoD. Volumes stood at 668mn shares compared to 438mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to face resistance at 120,797 (all-time intraday high) as a break above may start a new momentum towards 123,375 and 125,947 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support between 118,740 and 119,340 levels. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ’Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below 118,527. The support and resistance levels are at 119,338 and 120,315, respectively.
Morning News: IMF yet to decide on budget relief request - By Vector Research

May 22 2025


Vector Securities


  • Seeking effective and practical steps for the realisation of agriculture income tax and improvements in retail sector taxation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to take a position on Pakistan’s request for relief measures in the upcoming budget, due on June 2.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan’s exports to United States of America (USA) is $4.4 billion as compared to imports of US$1.9 billion with the trade surplus of $2.5 billion during current Financial Year 2024-25 (up to March).
  • Pakistan’s total investment plunged into the lowest range despite a slight improvement in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25, mainly due to the assumption of reliance on increased public investments. Private sector investment stagnated, standing at 9.1 percent in the current fiscal year compared to 9 percent in the last financial year.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:
  • To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.
  • Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton
Power Cement Limited (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of POWER highlighted that the Company turned into profit after five years amid massive developments i.e. successful plant turnaround, significant payment of a finance cost, improving operational efficiency through better fuel mix and capturing huge market share in high grade cement.
  • On the production and sales front, the management told that net sales dropped 16%YoY in 9MFY25 due to drastic decline in production and sales of Clinker on the back of significant decline in international Clinker prices. However, they expect some recovery in Clinker export prices until Dec’25 i.e. in between USD 35-37 per ton. This will improve profitability of the Company. Further, Operating profit surged 24%YoY in 9MFY25 on account of drop in finance cost (35%YoY) due to lower interest rates along with reduction in operational costs i.e. fuel saving of around 10% by using Agricultural Waste as alternative fuel. Moreover, the management is expecting to pay off significant portion of dividends to preference shareholders (Currently 74.5Mn as outstanding) once it has settled large amount of debt during FY26.
  • According to the management, the Company is using 100% imported coal (mainly from US) with a total cost of around PKR 35-37K per ton. Whereas, total export price per ton of Clicker (70% of total exports) and Cement is currently at USD 35-37 and USD 40-47, respectively. They shared that the recent Plant turnaround made it operating at 100% capacity (capable of utilizing high Sulphur coal to make high grade cement). The current retention price is ~PKR 775-800 per bag.
Pakistan Economy: IMF releases its Country Report on Pakistan - By Taurus Research

May 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest Country Report (or staff report) on Pakistan, following conclusion of the first review under the 37-month USD 7Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF), leading to the immediate disbursement of ~USD 1Bn (SDR 760Mn). In addition, Pakistan also secured approval for a Resilience & Sustainability Facility (RSF) amounting to USD 1.4Bn for the purposes of tackling climate change.
  • Overall, policy efforts have continued to bear fruit. Wherein, financial and external conditions have continued to improve, with a current account surplus in 10MFY25 and FX reserves exceeding the IMF’s projections. NCPI has also declined to historical lows, albeit core inflation remains elevated. Economic recovery is continuing. Hence, Pakistan’s capacity to repay has improved too.
  • According to the Staff Report, Pakistan’s GDP growth is expected to arrive at 2.6% for FY25 (revised down from earlier forecast of 3.2%). Similarly, GDP growth for FY26 has also been revised down from 4% to 3.6%. However, the IMF’s forecast for headline inflation has been revised down substantially from the earlier estimates; to 5.1% and 7.7% for FY25 and FY26, respectively— expected to arrive within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%.
Textile: Apr’25 Textile exports down 1%YoY/15%QoQ - By Taurus Research

May 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.22Bn in Apr’25 as compared to USD 1.23Bn in the SPLY, a decline of ~1%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it has significantly decreased by 15%MoM. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in exports of cotton yarn, cotton cloth, bed wear, tents & canvas, arts & silk and other textiles, down 31%YoY, 6%YoY, 3%YoY, 15%YoY, 3%YoY, and 10% YoY, respectively. However, 10MFY25 textile exports increased 8%YoY to USD 14.8Bn as compared to USD 13.6Bn in the SPLY.
  • In Apr’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 166Mn, a significant decline of ~13%YoY, mainly attributed to the decline in exports of cotton yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed an increase of 2%YoY with a 4%YoY decline in other textiles.
Textile: Apr’25 Textile exports down 1%YoY/15%QoQ - By Taurus Research

May 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.22Bn in Apr’25 as compared to USD 1.23Bn in the SPLY, a decline of ~1%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it has significantly decreased by 15%MoM. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in exports of cotton yarn, cotton cloth, bed wear, tents & canvas, arts & silk and other textiles, down 31%YoY, 6%YoY, 3%YoY, 15%YoY, 3%YoY, and 10% YoY, respectively. However, 10MFY25 textile exports increased 8%YoY to USD 14.8Bn as compared to USD 13.6Bn in the SPLY.
  • In Apr’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 166Mn, a significant decline of ~13%YoY, mainly attributed to the decline in exports of cotton yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed an increase of 2%YoY with a 4%YoY decline in other textiles.
TPL Properties Limited (TPLP): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management conducted an analyst briefing on Friday 16, 2025 to provide an update on the March 29, 2025 fire incident at the Mangrove Project and shared updates on its progress.
  • On March 29, 2025, a minor fire occurred at the construction site of the Mangrove project due to an underground gas pocket encountered during deep borehole drilling for water.
  • In response, on April 8, 2025, the Government formed a technical team comprising of representatives from PPL, OGDCL and PRL to oversee the assessment and containment efforts.
Rafhan Maize Products Company Limited (RMPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Rafhan Maize Products Company Limited (RMPL) is an affiliate of Ingredion Incorporated, USA. Ingredion is one of the world’s leading corn refiners and carries a 71% stake in RMPL. RMPL considers itself to be an ingredients solution provider and serves more than 50 industries domestically and internationally. RMPL operates three manufacturing facilities in Punjab and Sindh.
  • RMPL primarily produces Starch (40%), Glucose (40%), and Dextrose (20%). RMPL operates in the following product categories and their respective segments: Food (confectionery, bakery, dairy, beverages, snacks, savory); Pharmaceuticals (Pharma-grade starches and glucose syrups for a wide range of applications); Industrial (textile, paper and corrugation, chemical and allied, and home and personal care); and Animal Nutrition (poultry, livestock, and aquaculture).
  • The Management noted that RMPL carries over 90% market share in its primary segments.
Pak Elektron Limited (PAEL): Exciting prospects ahead Initiating Coverage with a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research

May 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We initiate coverage on Pak Elektron Limited (PAEL) with a ‘BUY’ rating based on a Dec’25 target price of PKR 65/sh., reflecting an upside of 41% over the LDCP. PAEL is currently trading at a forward P/E of 9.5x, a 36% discount to its peers.
  • Our investment thesis is primarily based upon: i) Volumetric growth and uptick in utilization levels for both Power & Home Appliances divisions on the back of recovering demand; ii) Commencement of Transformer exports to the US along with strategic partnerships with Electrolux and Panasonic; iii) Relatively high & stable gross margins; iv) Strong presence in both Power and Home Appliances; v) Benefits from lower inflation & interest rates and a stable outlook for the Rupee; and vi) Sufficient capacity to deliver on new contracts, including exports.
  • Moreover, we believe PAEL could also be a major beneficiary of Government sponsored megaprojects and initiatives, broadening demand for its Power division. Finally, PAEL also enjoys unrivaled international technical collaborations and strategic partnerships which support innovation, helping it target new markets and segments both in Power and Home Appliances.
Economy: Apr’25 CAB posts USD 12Mn surplus - By Taurus Research

May 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 21%MoM surge in the trade deficit along with a 22%MoM decrease in remittances, have reduced Pakistan Current Account Surplus in Apr’25 ~1xMoM, to USD 12Mn (USD 1.2Bn in Mar’25). However, cumulatively CA remains in a surplus of USD 1.9Bn during 10MFY25, as against a deficit of USD 1.3Bn in 10MFY24.
  • Trade deficit for the month clocked-in at USD 2.6Bn, up 21% MoM; amounting to USD 21.3Bn for 10MFY25, up 19%YoY. Exports were down 6%MoM owing to 9%MoM drop in Food Exports mainly Rice which fell ~12% during the month. Whereas, textile exports were flat. In addition, exports of Carpets, Sports Goods, Leather Goods and Engineering Goods were down too.
  • Conversely, Imports were up 6%MoM driven by across the board growth including Transport (25%MoM), Agri & Chemicals (14% MoM); and Machinery (up 12%MoM), respectively. This is a likely outcome of pick-up in economic activity in the country. Overall, 10MFY25 exports are up 5% and imports are up 12%, compared to the corresponding period last year. 10MFY25 services deficit stands at ~USD 2.5Bn, up 4% over the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Mar’25 LSMI down 4.6%MoM/up 1.8%YoY - By Taurus Research

May 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) was down 4.6%MoM in Mar’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Machinery & Equipment (-72%), Furniture (-60%) and Tobacco (-24%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (27%), Food (20%), Automobiles (19%) and Wood Products (8%), respectively. 9MFY25 LSMI was down 1.5%YoY.
  • Textile production increased by ~5.15%YoY in Mar’25 attributable to increase in production of yarn, cloth, woolen & carpet yarn, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 8.81%YoY, 0.74%YoY, 9.12%YoY, 1.1xYoY and 97.36%YoY, respectively— driven by higher demand during the period amid festive season. Whereas, on a monthly basis it increased by ~5.39%MoM, mainly due to the increase in production of yarn, jute goods, woolen & carpet yarn, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 3.32%YoY, 26.08%YoY, 14.93%YoY, 7.59%YoY and 23.0xYoY, respectively.
Chemical: GCIL & GCWL: 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • GCIL is a key player in Pakistan’s industrial gases and chemicals sector. The Company primarily manufactures medical and industrial gases, along with bulk chemicals including sulfuric acid and allied products. Its operations cater to a range of critical sectors including healthcare, textiles, steel, and pharmaceuticals.
  • The Company’s net revenue stood at PKR 1,668Mn, a 41% YoY increase from PKR 1,181Mn in 3QFY24. Consequently, gross profit margin rose to 60.8% from 25.8% in the same quarter last year. Net profit after tax (PAT) increased significantly by ~1.45x YoY, reaching PKR 514Mn compared to PKR 210Mn in 3QFY24. EPS for the quarter stood at PKR 1.03, up from PKR 0.42 in the same period last year.
  • Management indicated that solar systems and batteries are currently being deployed across all plants, with the long-term goal of achieving 10MW in solar capacity. For context, the company’s total power demand is 30MW.
  • GCWL is a newly incorporated public limited company, established on July 31, 2024, as a wholly owned subsidiary of Ghani Chemical Industries Limited (GCIL). The Company was created to house the Calcium Carbide Project carved out of GCIL under a demerger scheme sanctioned in February 2025. Positioned in the Hattar Special Economic Zone, GCWL will focus on import substitution through domestic production of calcium carbide and related products. The Company was successfully listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange on April 24, 2025, and is now a standalone entity with a focused mandate in chemicals.