Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Nov 28 2024


Taurus Securities


  • NCL is vertically integrated and one of the largest textile manufacturers of Pakistan. NCL was established in 1990. NCL has four subsidiaries: i) Nishat Chunian USA Inc.; ii) Sweave Inc. USA for e-commerce retail of home textile products; iii) Nishat Chunian Properties (Private) Limited for real-estate development; and iv) TLC Middle-East Trading LLC in UAE.
  • Sales clocked in at PKR 88.8Bn compared to PKR 67.6Bn, up 31% attributable to the spinning and weaving divisions. Gross margins increased ~3ppts arriving at 12% from 10%. Whereas, other income declined by 8% arriving at PKR 865Mn compared to PKR 937Mn in the SPLY.
  • Finance cost arrived PKR 7.7Bn compared to PKR 5.4Bn, up 43% attributable to the higher interest rates. PAT clocked in at PKR 691Mn as compared to a loss of PKR 998Mn over the SPLY, resulting in an EPS of PKR 2.88/sh
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC offtakes conclude FY25 on strong footing - By AKD Research

Jul 2 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC volumetric sales for FY25 reached 16.3mn tons, higher by 7%YoY. Specifically, MS/HSD offtakes stood at 7.6mn/6.9mn tons for the full year, up 6%/10%YoY.
  • We have a ‘BUY’ call for PSO and APL with Dec’25 TP of PkR729/850 per share, with DY of 5.1%/6.1% for FY26E
  • Our reasons for liking include anticipated revision in OMC margins during FY26 alongside volumetric recovery, while resolution of circular debt is to favorably impact the state-owned OMC i.e. PSO.
Economy: Pakistan-US Trade Talks Near Conclusion: Major Breakthrough on Tariffs Expected Next Week - By AHCML Research

Jun 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan and the United States are set to conclude trade negotiations next week, aiming to address reciprocal tariffs and strengthen bilateral economic ties. The talks, led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, reflect a strategic push to reset relations amid evolving global alignments. A key focus is easing the 29% US tariff on Pakistani exports, imposed under former President Trump, as Pakistan posted a USD3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024.To rebalance trade and attract US goodwill, Pakistan has offered to increase imports of American goods, including crude oil, and provide investment incentives, particularly in the mining sector.
  • A joint webinar this week showcased Pakistan’s USD7 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project, drawing interest from US investors and officials. The US Export-Import Bank is currently evaluating financing proposals worth USD500mn to USD1 billion for the project.
  • As the U.S. maintains high tariffs on key textile-exporting countries like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Pakistan faces relatively moderate tariffs, higher than Egypt and Turkey, but far more favorable than many others. This creates a strategic opening for Pakistan to increase its market share in the U.S., particularly in high-demand categories where it already has a foothold. These include cotton trousers, knit shirts, denim, towels, bed linen, and curtains.
Morning News: $350m loan agreement signed with ADB to boost women’s financial inclusion - By WE Research

Jun 25 2025



  • The Government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II),” aimed at advancing women’s economic empowerment. The agreement, signed by representatives from the Economic Affairs Division, ADB, and the State Bank of Pakistan, underscores Pakistan’s commitment to fostering inclusive growth. Building on reforms from Subprogram I, the initiative focuses on enhancing policy and regulatory frameworks, increasing access to finance for women, supporting women’s entrepreneurship, and promoting equitable workplaces in the financial sector. The financing includes a $300 million policy-based loan and a $50 million Financial Intermediary Loan.
  • In Q4 FY2024-25, Pakistan's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 9.2% from the previous quarter and 24.6% year-on-year, reaching 96.2 points—the highest level since tracking began in 2022. The report, jointly issued by Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan, highlights improved public sentiment regarding both current financial conditions and future economic prospects. Notably, the Future Confidence Index crossed the 100-point mark for the first time, indicating a shift toward optimism. Key improvements were seen in household income expectations, financial outlook, and savings sentiment. However, concerns about rising unemployment persist, with 61% noting job losses in the past six months. Confidence gains were broad-based, with the most significant increases among individuals under 30. The findings underscore a cautiously optimistic economic outlook, though continued reforms are needed to address labor market challenges.
  • The Power Division has requested a positive adjustment of 10 paisa per unit in electricity tariffs for May 2025 under the monthly Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) mechanism to recover Rs 1.255 billion from consumers of Distribution Companies (Discos). This request, submitted by CPPA-G, will be reviewed in a public hearing by NEPRA on June 29, 2025. In May 2025, total electricity generation rose by 1.2% yearon-year to 12,755 GWh, with a basket price of Rs 7.7739 per unit. Hydel power contributed 37% of total generation, increasing 24% from the previous year. Local coal and imported coal generation rose by 3% and 108% respectively, while RFO-based generation declined by 68%. Nuclear power and gas-based generation both fell, while RLNG contributed 17% at a high cost of Rs 23.73 per unit. Renewable sources like wind and solar contributed modestly. Overall, generation costs and energy mix shifts have prompted the proposed tariff adjustment.
Morning News: Pakistan, ADB sign $350m “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program - By HMFS Research

Jun 25 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II).” The agreement was signed by Sabina Qureshi, Additional Secretary of the Economic Affairs Division, and Dinesh Raj Shiwakoti, Head Project Administration Unit at ADB. The Project Agreement for the Financial Intermediary Loan (FIL) was signed by the State Bank of Pakistan, as per the press release issued. The signing reaffirms Pakistan’s commitment to fostering women’s economic empowerment through improved access to finance, expanded entrepreneurship, and increased job creation. Subprogram-II builds on the reforms of Subprogram-I and focuses on four key areas: creating an enabling regulatory environment for women’s financial inclusion, increasing financial access for women, enhancing women’s entrepreneurship, and promoting inclusive workplaces in the financial sector. The total financing includes a $300m policy-based loan and a $50m FIL.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, finding some respite after plummeting in the last two sessions, as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Brent crude futures rose 75 cents, or 1.1%, to $67.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 71 cents, or 1.1%, to $65.08. Brent settled on Tuesday at its lowest since June 10 and WTI since June 5, both before Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13.
  • China has shown willingness to reschedule $1.8 billion debt for a period of two years, which is about half of the amount that Pakistan had requested last year but is still critical for meeting requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. Islamabad sought the rescheduling of the government's concessional loans, preferential buyer credit, and the buyer's credit from the Export-Import (Exim) Bank of China, according to government officials. China has not agreed to reschedule the buyer's credit loans, they added. There is now a possibility that China may reschedule $1.8 billion worth of government concessional loans and the preferential buyer credit by next month, they added. These loans have been taken for various projects and are over and above the commercial financing that Chinese banks have given to Pakistan.
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 1QCY25 Result Review — Higher NII led to earnings incline -- By AKD Research

Apr 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 1QCY25 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR36.1bn (EPS: PkR28.8) for the quarter, up 126%YoY/39%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher than expected NII and provisioning reversal. In addition to the result, bank announced an interim cash payout of PkR11/sh and stock split in the ratio of 2 shares for 1 share held.
  • NII recorded at PkR84.2bn in 1QCY25, up by 200%YoY/30%QoQ, primarily due to higher investment book, up 60%YoY/27%QoQ and advances, up 7.1%YoY, compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR17.0bn in 1QCY25, down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, on the back of 55%YoY/69%QoQ dropped in gain on sale of securities. However, fee income increased to PkR7.5bn during the quarter, up 26%YoY/113%QoQ
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL): 2QFY25 Result Review — Earnings rebound on lower finance cost with surprise dividend - By AKD Research

Feb 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Nishat Chunian Ltd. (NCL) announced its 2QFY25 results, reporting earnings of PkR231mn (EPS: PkR0.96), compared to loss of PkR911mn (LPS: PkR3.80) in SPLY. The said turnaround is attributed to the lower finance cost and improved gross margins. Earning came largely in line with our expectations. Alongside the result, company announced an interim dividend of PkR1.0/sh.
  • Revenue increased by 3%YoY to PkR20.7bn, compared to PkR20.1bn in SPLY, driven by higher prices. On a sequential basis, revenue declined by 11%QoQ due to seasonal export slowdown.
  • Gross margins improved to 11.5% vs. 10.7% in SPLY, as higher retention prices and lower energy cost outweighed increased salary expenses.
Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.96 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • NCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR231mn (EPS: PKR0.96) vs. LAT of PKR911mn (LPS: PKR3.8) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to higherthan-expected tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR20.7bn (US$74.2mn) compared to PKR20.1bn (US$71.0mn) in SPLY, up by ~3% YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales. However, same is down by ~11% on QoQ basis.
  • Gross margins clocked in at ~11% depicting an increase of ~2.3ppts QoQ, possibly due to operational efficiency and lower cotton prices.
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Sharp rise in NFI income leads earnings incline - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR25bn (EPS: PkR20.4) for the quarter, up 85%YoY/36%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher gain on sale of securities expense and higher NII. This brings full-year profitability to PkR74.2bn (EPS: PkR60.3), reflecting a 34%YoY increase. In addition to the result, bank announced a final cash payout of PkR11/sh, taking total dividends during CY24 to PkR44/sh (payout: 73%)
  • NII recorded at PkR64.7bn in 4QCY24, up by 74%YoY/25%QoQ, primarily due to higher advances and investment book compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR27.2bn in 4QCY24, up 155%YoY/62%QoQ, on the back of PkR18.5bn in gain on sale of securities (up 16xYoY/3xQoQ). However, fee income dropped to PkR3.5bn during the quarter, down 31%YoY/45%QoQ.
Nishat Chunian Ltd (NCL): Earnings growth contingent on better spinning margins – By JS Research

Nov 29 2024


JS Global Capital


  • Nishat Chunian Ltd (NCL) conducted its analyst briefing session yesterday. The management highlighted 28% YoY jump in spinning revenues and shift to coal power plant as key reasons for earnings turnaround in FY24 (EPS: Rs2.69 vs LPS of Rs0.63 in FY23).
  • During 1QFY25, NCL gross margins decreased by 3ppts QoQ to 9%, while earnings declined by 95% QoQ to Rs0.15/sh. due to unfavorable fluctuations in international cotton and yarn prices and increase in tax rates for the company.
  • Going forward, the company believes better inventory management, cost benefit of operating on coal and bio-mass, BMR in spinning segment and expansion in retail network – should bode well for the company. The management aims at crossing the Rs100bn revenue mark this year (vs. Rs89bn in FY24).
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Cement: June’25 dispatches down 26%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jul 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total Cement dispatches in June’25 down 26%MoM on the back of lower construction demand and rise in geo-political conflict, declining exports i.e. domestic and export sales dropped by 29% MoM and 13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, total domestic sales were down 16% in June’25 as higher taxes along with higher FED and increase in the cost of construction materials has reduced construction demand compared to the SPLY. However, exports during June’25 surged massively by 82%YoY on account of increase in clinker and cement demand from the regional/exporting countries during the period.
  • North-based domestic sales decreased 26%MoM in June’25 due to decline in the construction activities amid bad weather conditions and lower construction demand. Wherein, export sales were down 14%MoM amid escalation of war in the MiddleEast. South-based domestic sales dropped significantly by 44% MoM in June’25. On the export front, South-based exports were down 13%MoM, respectively.
  • On a YoY basis, North-based domestic sales down 14%YoY in June’25 due to lower construction demand i.e. impact of higher taxes and surge in construction material cost. However, Northbased exports were up significantly by 91%YoY, reflecting higher demand from the export regions. On the South front, domestic sales during June’25 decreased by 23%YoY. However, export sales surged by 79%YoY to 0.65Mn tons, respectively.
Economy: Jun’25 Volumes surge 2%MoM, up 8%YoY - By Taurus Research

Jul 2 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Petroleum products off-take for Jun’25 stood at approximately 1.56Mn tons, reflecting a monthly growth of 2%. Similarly, on a yearly basis, sales were up 8%YoY. The increase in volumes on a MoM basis was primarily driven by lower POL prices along with controlled smuggling activities.
  • Specifically, volumes for MS increased 5%MoM and 5%YoY. HSD volumes grew 9%YoY growth but declined 8%MoM. However, FO sales increased 62%MoM but increased 22%YoY, primarily due to low RLNG consumption and excess of LNG supply and heightened electricity demand.
  • Moreover, FY25 saw a surge in POL sales which were up 7%YoY primarily due to higher demand for MS, HSD, HOBC and KERO, up 6%, 10%, 1.7x and 19%YoY, respectively.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Strong interest from potential buyers… Dec’25 TP of PKR 352, warrants a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research

Jun 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We reiterate our ’BUY’ rating for Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) with a Dec’25 target price of PKR 352/sh. offering an upside of 26% over the last day’s close. Our investment thesis primarily focuses on the Company’s strategic business advantages like: i) Presence in the South (2nd largest producer in the South) and the export market (15% share of Pakistan’s cement exports); and ii) Cost advantages (low dependence on the National Grid); coupled with an attractive valuation.
  • In addition, the location of the Company’s plant offers it immense strategic advantages like proximity to major projects like CPEC-Phase-II, Reko Diq and other mining & highway projects etc.; specially in the context of Balochistan, along with access to sea ports like Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. Other triggers also include savings due to lower finance costs, going forward.
  • Moreover, recently the Company has also attracted strong interest from potential buyers in light of its sponsor’s intentions of a potential sale of the Company. The latter can be a strong catalyst for the current share price of the Company as it continues to trade at a massive discount on a replacement cost basis. Hence, a potential acquisition offer may be well above the current price.
TRG Pakistan Limited (TRG): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The principal activity of TRG Pakistan is to manage a portfolio of investments in the business process outsourcing sector through its associate, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL). TRG Pakistan invests in the Technology, IT enabled services, and medicare insurance sectors. Its clients include companies from The Global 100. Through TRGIL, TRG Pakistan owns a 13% stake in both Afiniti and IBEX. Afiniti focuses on AI-based contact center optimization and IBEX specializes in outsourced customer interactions. Afiniti is controlled by Vista Lend Consortium. IBEX was listed on NASDAQ in 2020.
  • IBEX recorded 3QFY25 topline growth of 11%YoY at USD 540Mn, while 1QFY25 and 2QFY25 toplines recorded a growth of 4%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively. IBEX continues to outperform its peers with a 75% increase in its share price during the LTM, breaking the USD 30 level. Afiniti halved its senior debt by converting 50% of it into convertible preferred stock.
  • During 9MFY25, TRG recorded interest income of PKR 1.7Mn compared to PKR 1.8Mn during the SPLY. The Company recorded administrative and other expenses of PKR 456Mn compared to PKR 199Mn during the SPLY. This resulted in an operating loss of PKR 454Mn during 9MFY25 compared to PKR 196Mn during the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at 3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation. Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at 4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
  • During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes (up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17% MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the prices of other food items for the month.
  • However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10 FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Morning News: In another twist, Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • US President Donald Trump said late on Monday that a ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran.
  • Pakistan has announced to extend its airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft for another month until July 23, 2025.
  • The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints —could deal a devastating blow to Pakistan’s already fragile economy, with soaring production, shipping, and insurance costs threatening industrial output, exports, and employment.
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Limited (JDMT): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Ltd was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public Company in 1960. The Company is mainly engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of yarn.
  • In 9MFY25, sales clocked in at PKR 1.5Bn as compared to PKR 4.5Bn, down 67% over the SPLY mainly due to the suspension of production activities, weak demand, limited availability of cheaper imported yarn and inability to pass on price impact. The Company recorded gross loss of 29ppts arriving at -26% compared to 3% in the SPLY driven by the significant increase in its fuel & power costs from 18% to 20% during the period.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 218Mn compared to PKR 266Mn, down 18% over the SPLY driven by lower interest rate. Loss after tax arrived in at PKR 595Mn as compared to PKR 150Mn, up 3.0x over the SPLY primarily attributable to lower sale price of yarn and higher energy prices.
Economy: May’25 CAB posts a deficit of USD 103Mn - By Taurus Research

Jun 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Trade deficit continues to widen (up 16%MoM and 22% over the SPLY) as Pakistan’s CA posted a deficit of USD 103Mn during May’25. Goods exports fell 6% on a sequential basis. Whereas, goods imports increased 5%MoM. Services deficit recorded a contraction of 8% during the month to arrive at USD 2.7Bn in 11MFY25, up 1% over the corresponding period last year.
  • Remittances were the savior yet again, reflecting a growth of 16% over the previous month and 29% overall FYTD, clocking-in at USD 34.9Bn during 11MFY25. Consequently, 11MFY25 current account remains in a surplus of ~USD 1.8Bn. State Bank of Pakistan expects overall CAB for FY25 to post a sizeable surplus.
  • A dissection of the surge in imports shows that while petroleum imports posted a 7%MoM drop, machinery and transport group imports were up 17%MoM and 30%MoM, respectively. The latter is a strong indicator of uptick in economic activity. However, the situation poses a serious risk in case petroleum imports also surge on the back of soaring oil prices due to the evolving geopolitical situation. Resultantly, trade deficit is likely to widen further over the next few months, driving an even higher deficit.
Cement : Lahore High Court upholds 6% Royalty on Punjab Manufacturers - By Taurus Research

Jun 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • In a recent development, the Lahore High Court has upheld its decision, to maintain the higher royalty charge i.e. 6% of the ex-factory cement price (PKR 1,250-1,350 per ton) – previously PKR 250/ton in FY24 for Punjab based manufacturers - ruling against the cement companies. We believe the affected Companies are likely to file on appeal against the judgment in the Supreme Court.
  • Hence, the decision cannot be considered final as yet. Nevertheless, cement companies operating out of Punjab are already providing for the higher royalty charge. However, encashment of bank guarantees for securing on earlier stay order may have slight impact on cash flows for these companies.
  • In contrast, KPK based cement producers are already enjoying high margins on selling cement bags at the discounted prices in Punjab. To recall, the KPK government announced provisional budget where they increased royalty charge from PKR 250/ton to PKR 350/ton. Resultantly, the disparity remains huge in the royalty charges of KPK and Punjab cement manufacturers i.e. PKR 950-1,050 per ton difference.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward – albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation, although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
  • Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
  • Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East. Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions, volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
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