KseAlert | Morning News: IMF reveals stringent conditions for second loan tranche

Morning News: IMF reveals stringent conditions for second loan tranche – By WE Research

Dec 3 2024

The Pakistani finance ministry has acknowledged its failure to meet three key targets under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the IMF, including revenue collection targets for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and spending on health and education. Provincial governments missed the deadline to amend agriculture income tax legislation by October 2024. The legislation aims to align provincial agricultural income tax regimes with federal tax policies, with implementation set for January 2025. Additional reforms include introducing a Federal Excise Duty on pesticides and fertilizers, expanding tax efforts at the provincial level, and increasing contributions for higher education and social protection. Provinces are also required to improve tax compliance, reduce corruption, and enhance digitalization. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stressed the urgency of simultaneous reforms in population control, climate change, and education, while working on a 10-year partnership with the World Bank. Meanwhile, the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance debated the IMF programme, with opposition protests over asset declaration requirements for government officials. The committee was briefed on the 22 structural benchmarks of the EFF, with most focusing on federal and State Bank of Pakistan reforms.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reviewed the progress of Saudi Arabia's $2.8 billion investment in Pakistan, highlighting the conversion of seven out of 34 signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) into formal contracts, worth $560 million. During a meeting to assess bilateral cooperation, the prime minister praised Saudi Arabia’s continued support for Pakistan, especially in challenging times. This update follows Saudi Arabia's October announcement to increase its investment by an additional $600 million, bringing the total commitment to $2.8 billion. The investment surge followed discussions between PM Shehbaz and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with Saudi Investment Minister Khalid bin Abdulaziz Al Falih noting that 34 MoUs were signed, initially valued at $2.2 billion before the additional investment.

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Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025

Taurus Securities

We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.

During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.

Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.

Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025

AKD Securities

AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.

Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.

FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY

Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 18 2025

Sherman Securities

A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports remained flat at US$4.8bn during Mar’25. This stability was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum and food sectors on a weighted average basis, while agriculture imports increased.

On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$42.7bn (up 9%YoY) during 9MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of machinery, textile and agriculture, while petroleum and food imports declined.

Exports increased to US$2.6bn (up 6%MoM) during Mar’24. Likewise, during 9MFY25, exports clocked in at US$24.7bn (up 8%YoY), mainly due to growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.

Pakistan Economy: Power sector circular debt resolution plan in the offing - By Foundation Research

Apr 18 2025

Foundation Securities

Pakistan's power sector has become a key challenge in the country's macroeconomic balancing act. Stabilizing the economy hinges on resolving power sector issues, which took center stage in recent IMF negotiations for the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. In a bid to settle the amount in a single go, the government has plans to inject Rs1.5 trillion to tackle the circular debt crisis, clearing overdue liabilities and paving the way for sector stability.

Commercial banks will provide nearly Rs1.275 trillion of the bailout package, despite already having significant exposure to the power sector's circular debt. The deal, negotiated between the government and banks, offers below-KIBOR interest rates, potentially saving the government 3-5% on debt servicing costs. Contrary to news flow of banks being pressured into the deal, top banking executives and government officials have assured that the agreement was reached mutually.

According to news flow, a term sheet was signed between the government and banks at a large commercial bank in Karachi, with disbursements slated to begin next month. This financial intervention aims to curb the energy crisis and prevent further debt accumulation.

Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025

JS Global Capital

Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.

Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.

We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.

Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025

Taurus Securities

Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY

In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.

Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By Vector Research

Apr 18 2025

Vector Securities

Pakistan’s current account posted a record all-time high monthly surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, fueled by historic inflows of home remittances, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by 14 percent during the first nine months of this fiscal year (FY25). According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country fetched FDI amounting to $1.644 billion in July-March of FY25 compared to $1.442 billion in the same period of last fiscal year (FY24), showing an increase of $202 million. During the period under review, FDI inflows were $2.472 billion as against $828 million outflow.

Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $127 million to $10.57 billion during the week ended April 11 due to external debt repayments, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also decreased by $91 million to $15.66 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks increased by $36 million to $5.09 billion.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.

Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025

Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.

Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.

Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025

Insight Securities

LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.

In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.

Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.

Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025

Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.

Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.

Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025

Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.

In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.

Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.

Morning News: Oil extends decline as US-China trade war weighs on global growth outlook - By WE Research

Apr 14 2025

Oil prices dropped on Monday due to concerns that the intensifying trade war between the United States and China could slow global economic growth and reduce fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell by 0.45% to $64.47 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude decreased by 0.44% to $61.23. Both have lost approximately $10 a barrel since the beginning of April. Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will remain lower for the rest of 2025 and 2026, citing weak global demand, particularly in petrochemical feedstocks. The trade war has escalated, with China raising tariffs on U.S. imports and the U.S. imposing new duties on Chinese technology products. Concerns about a declining Chinese economy, highlighted by falling inflation and producer prices, have led to fears of reduced oil demand. U.S. energy firms have responded by cutting oil rigs, marking the largest weekly reduction since June 2023. However, potential pressure on Iran’s oil exports could offer some support to oil prices.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb shared Pakistan's vision for economic growth, focusing on high-potential sectors like IT and minerals, inspired by Singapore’s export-driven model. He emphasized that copper, like nickel for Singapore, could be a significant export driver for Pakistan. The government is addressing barriers to investment and aims to ease the tax burden on salaried individuals while ensuring inflation reduction and improved industrial growth through lower financing costs and power tariffs. Aurangzeb also mentioned the privatisation of 24 national entities and efforts to improve tax policies. He highlighted the government's commitment to consulting the private sector and resolving systemic issues to boost confidence and ensure the benefits of economic policies reach the common man. The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) commended the government's progress in lowering inflation and interest rates, while also calling for reforms in tariff structures and long-term economic planning to support sustainable growth.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has stated that Pakistan has no plans to retaliate against the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In an interview with the BBC, he acknowledged concerns about the uncertainty created by these tariffs and emphasized the importance of dialogue moving forward in the current global trade environment. He clarified that Pakistan would not respond with countermeasures, despite the potential challenges posed by the U.S.-China trade tensions. While recognizing the U.S. as a long-time strategic partner, Aurangzeb highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relations with China as well. Although former President Donald Trump had initially announced a 29% tariff on Pakistani exports, its implementation has been delayed by 90 days, with a minimum tariff of 10% still affecting all countries

Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By WE Research

Apr 11 2025

A technical team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Pakistan starting April 14, 2025, to engage in discussions with senior officials of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) regarding taxation proposals for the FY2025-26 budget. The talks will focus on expanding the tax base by bringing retailers and other untaxed sectors under the tax net, while the government is also considering reducing tax rates for the salaried class. Both parties are expected to explore the inclusion of high-income pensioners in the tax framework. Meanwhile, the IMF’s governance and anti-corruption diagnostic team will be concluding its visit. Additionally, a high-level Pakistani delegation, headed by Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb, will attend the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., from April 21 to 26, 2025.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has halted a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS), due to concerns over potential objections from the IMF. The proposal, originally put forth by a committee led by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, aimed to restore tax exemptions and reintroduce insurance guarantees to address anomalies that favor imports over local procurement—an issue impacting domestic industries like ginning factories. While some officials suggested revisiting the matter with the IMF, the Prime Minister rejected the idea, instead calling for a balanced solution that does not disadvantage local producers. The government is considering imposing the same 18% tax on imports to level the playing field. The PM emphasized boosting exports remains a top priority and urged the committee to incorporate industry feedback and develop consensus-based recommendations. The EFS, launched in 2021, has undergone stricter controls in recent months to curb misuse, including reduced utilization periods and enhanced monitoring.

Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $173 million during the week ending April 4, 2025, reaching $15.75 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This rise includes a $23 million gain in SBP-held reserves, which stood at $10.699 billion, up from $10.676 billion the previous week. Additionally, net reserves held by commercial banks saw a notable increase of $150 million, reaching $5.053 billion compared to $4.903 billion the week before.

Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By WE Research

Apr 3 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months, subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board. This follows a staff-level agreement reached on March 25, 2025, after the first review of Pakistan's 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was approved in September 2024 for $7 billion. The RSF disbursements, which are spread over the duration of the arrangement, will be provided alongside a $1 billion disbursement from the EFF once the Executive Board approves the first review.

Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion in cash deposits to Pakistan to fund the construction of the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, following a request from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during his recent visit. The proposal includes two options: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund placing a term cash deposit with Pakistan’s State Bank, which would then lend the money to the National Highway Authority (NHA), or Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank, directly funding the project. Pakistan has also sought financing for the Hyderabad-Karachi motorway (M-9), estimated to cost $600 million. Despite this offer, there is a lack of consensus among Pakistani government departments, with the Finance Ministry opposing the cash deposit route. The NHA is exploring options, including public-private partnerships, to move forward with the projects, but delays are expected due to limited fiscal space. This comes amid ongoing efforts to secure foreign investments and address Pakistan's infrastructure needs while grappling with political and economic instability.

The federal government has announced a reduction in the price of petrol by Rs1 per litre, effective from March 29, lowering the price to Rs254.63 from Rs255.63. However, the price of High-Speed Diesel remains unchanged at Rs258.64 per litre. The price adjustments, recommended by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), were made based on fluctuations in international market rates, with the aim of providing relief to consumers.

Morning News: IMF team due in May to finalise FY26 budget: PM ecstatic as IMF deal to unlock $2.3bn for Pakistan - By WE Research

Mar 27 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) on the first review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new climate finance arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The agreement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, could unlock approximately $2.3 billion in funding for Pakistan by early May 2025. The deal focuses on fiscal discipline, energy sector reforms, climate resilience, and structural changes to foster economic growth. Despite challenges such as geopolitical shocks and global financial tightening, the IMF acknowledged progress in restoring macroeconomic stability in Pakistan. The Pakistani government has committed to advancing reforms to ensure long-term stability, with an emphasis on tax reforms, controlling inflation, and improving energy sector efficiency. Additionally, Pakistan is exploring new financial avenues, including potentially issuing Panda Bonds in Yuan to tap into China's capital market.

The Reko Diq copper and gold project in Balochistan, with reserves valued at over $60 billion, has seen three state-owned energy companies—Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL), and Government Holdings (Pvt) Ltd (GHPL)—more than double their funding commitments from $900 million to $1.88 billion. The project, which will be the world's first fully solarpowered copper-gold operation, is expected to yield 13.1 million tonnes of copper and 17.9 million ounces of gold over its 37-year life. The updated feasibility study also confirmed a 25% rate of return on investment. Phase 1 of the project, set to begin in 2028, will process 45 million tonnes of material annually, with Phase 2 doubling that by 2034. The project's funding will include a mix of shareholder equity and up to $3 billion in project financing. OGDCL, PPL, and GHPL, which hold a collective 25% stake in the project, have approved increased funding to reflect their proportional shares in the capital investment, with Barrick Gold Corporation holding the remaining 50% stake.

Pakistan's economy grew by just 1.7% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, with the livestock and services sectors driving growth due to lower inflation. However, the agriculture and industrial sectors faced significant challenges, including high interest rates, rising energy costs, and adverse weather conditions. Agriculture saw a sharp decline, with key crop production falling by 7.7%, while industrial output contracted by 0.2%, particularly in mining, large-scale manufacturing, and construction. The services sector performed best, growing by 2.6%, supported by a decline in inflation from 29% to 6.3%. Despite efforts to reduce electricity prices and offer fiscal stimulus, tight economic conditions, including record tax impositions and high interest rates, hindered broader economic progress. The government's target of 3.6% annual growth for FY2024-25 now seems unlikely to be met.

Morning News: Furnace oil exports hit record 933,000 tonnes in eight months - By WE Research

Mar 19 2025

Pakistan exported a record 933,000 tonnes of furnace oil in the first eight months of the current financial year, as the country's power sector phases out its use due to high costs and environmental concerns. Exports dropped to 39,000 tonnes in February but rebounded in March, driven by a government decision allowing refineries to sell surplus oil internationally. Furnace oil's role in power generation has diminished significantly, with little contribution to electricity production in February. Refineries are working to reduce high-sulphur furnace oil output, but delays in upgrades due to sales tax issues have hampered progress. Despite rising exports, refineries face challenges in disposing of furnace oil, affecting their operations.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is set to reduce the power tariff by Rs8 per unit, effective from April 1, 2025, following approval from the IMF. The reduction includes a permanent Rs4.73 per unit cut due to agreements with independent power producers (IPPs), currency adjustments, and changes in government power plants’ returns. An additional Rs1.30 per unit relief will be provided temporarily due to the non-reduction of petroleum prices, amounting to an estimated Rs168 billion. The government is also working on further reducing the tariff by Rs2 per unit. However, the electricity duty will remain intact, as the Punjab government opposed its removal, and the IMF blocked a proposed reduction in GST from 18% to 12%. Additionally, the PTV fee will be removed from bills starting July 2025, with the government planning to allocate a separate budget for it in FY2026.

The government’s renegotiation of agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) has resulted in lifetime savings of Rs1.3 trillion, with the aim of passing these savings on to consumers. Previously, consumers were paying up to Rs2.8 trillion annually to IPPs, some of which received payments without producing electricity due to flawed agreements. The renegotiations have already led to a Rs7 per unit reduction in electricity tariffs. Over the past eight months, tariffs were reduced by Rs4.96, and agreements with 14 IPPs and eight bagasse-based IPPs secured savings of Rs1.33 trillion. Planned reforms include converting coal plants to Thar coal, improving efficiency in Distribution Companies (DISCOs), and promoting solarisation of tubewells in Balochistan. Additionally, IPPs have agreed to return Rs31 billion in excess profits, and various LPI claims have been waived as part of the agreements.

Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): Poised for Continued Growth - Market Weight - By WE Research

Mar 18 2025

Since Jan’2024, the Pakistan cement sector has witnessed a swift recovery on the back of anticipated interest cut, where the industry stock performance increased by 46%. Among the local peers, FCCL has been the key driver on this rally, delivering an 92% return, with its share price surging from PKR 18.95/sh on January 1, 2024, to PKR 36.4/sh on January 1, 2025. However, despite this strong market performance, cement dispatches in CY24 remained stagnant/low, where local demand reached at 38.2 Mn tons, depicting a decline of 4.5% YoY. However, we expect FY25 to be a strong year for the industry, driven by lower interest rates and enhanced purchasing power across both consumer and industrial sectors, where we anticipated local dispatches to clock in at 38Mn tons 4% YoY increase from FY25.

We have a Market Weight stance on FCCL, with a DCF-based target price of PKR 64.40 per share for DEC’25 offering 40% upside potential. FCCL is currently valued at ~US$39.17EV/ton compared to 5-year average of ~US$32.65EV/ton. On EV/EBIDTA basis, stock is trading at ~11.07x as compared to 5-year average of ~6x.

Our liking for the stocks emanate from 1) Healthy gross margins driven by cost efficiency initiatives, 2) Recent capacity expansion to enhance market footprint, 3) Strong cash flow led to higher payouts & 4) Reducing interest rate to increase profitability.

Morning News: Chinese PM to visit Pakistan next month: envoy - By WE Research

Mar 13 2025

Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong emphasized the importance of Pakistan and China working together as key partners in modernization, economic growth, and international stability during a seminar organized by the China Pakistan Study Centre. He highlighted the deep and enduring friendship between the two nations, China's economic resilience, and its investments in tech and green initiatives. Zaidong underscored Pakistan's crucial role in China's strategic initiatives, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and space cooperation. He also outlined China's focus on poverty alleviation, job creation, and global peace. Other speakers, including Ambassador Sohail Mahmood and Masood Khan, discussed China's leadership in global development, the success of initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, and the evolving role of CPEC. They also highlighted the significance of media and think tanks in fostering understanding and the need for continued collaboration on regional security and global challenges.

Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has successfully restored hydrocarbon production at the Rajian-11 heavy oil well in Punjab’s Chakwal district after a four-year suspension. The company achieved this by installing an electrical submersible pump (ESP), in line with its strategy to boost production through advanced artificial lift techniques. Rajian-11, which reaches a depth of 3,774 meters, had been inactive since 2020 due to formation challenges. With the ESP installation, the well now produces 1,000 barrels per day (BPD) of oil. The Rajian Oil Field, discovered in 1994 and fully owned by OGDCL, is part of the company’s effort to maximize hydrocarbon recovery and improve operational efficiency. This development follows a 44% year-on-year decline in OGDCL’s profit for the quarter ending December 31, 2024, attributed to lower sales and higher taxes.

K-Electric (KE) has requested a provisional negative adjustment of Rs 4.84 per unit in the Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for January 2025, which would result in a financial impact of Rs 4.695 billion for consumers. Additionally, KE is seeking to adjust Rs 13.5 billion from previous months. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) will hold a public hearing on March 20, 2025, to review this request. KE's submission includes an adjustment for fuel cost variations, considering factors like partial load, open cycle, degradation curves, and startup costs for the period from July 2023 to January 2025. The hearing will deliberate on whether the FCA adjustment is justified, KE's adherence to the merit order in dispatching power, and the reasonableness of the accumulated fuel costs. KE's response highlights concerns over low demand in December 2024 and underutilization of its own plants, which led to higher costs. KE also emphasized the need to resolve interconnection issues with the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) to improve cost-efficiency and system performance.

Morning News: Uzbek-Pak ties get boost: leaders eye $2bn trade - By WE Research

Feb 27 2025

Pakistan and Uzbekistan have agreed to boost bilateral trade from $400 million to $2 billion and explore opportunities in investment, connectivity, and tourism. During a two-day visit by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Uzbekistan, both leaders discussed the Trans-Afghan Railway project, which aims to connect Central Asia with South Asia and could transform regional trade. The leaders also emphasized the importance of regional stability, including a peaceful Afghanistan, and the need to prevent its soil from being used by militant groups. Prime Minister Sharif highlighted Pakistan’s economic progress and invited President Mirziyoyev to visit Pakistan, a proposal that was accepted. Both leaders agreed to establish a High-Level Strategic Council to further promote cooperation, especially in areas like energy, mines, and rail connectivity.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Oil & Gas Company Limited (KPOGCL) signed an exploration agreement for the Miran Block in North Waziristan with a consortium including Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL). KPOGCL will hold the majority stake with 51% ownership, while the remaining 49% will belong to the OGDCL-led consortium, which will also bear the investment of Rs 20 billion over the next three years. The project aims to explore significant oil and gas reserves, with strong prospects for addressing Pakistan’s energy crisis. Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur highlighted the project’s strategic importance, emphasizing its potential to bring development, create jobs, and reduce militancy in the region. He also criticized past policies for not fully exploiting KP’s natural resources and reaffirmed the province’s key role in Pakistan’s energy production.

The government has decided to pass on the reduction in electricity prices due to fuel cost adjustments (FCA) to the agriculture sector and domestic consumers using up to 300 units per month. The Ministry of Energy has asked the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) to implement this decision, which aligns with past policy guidelines but adjusts for recent tariff rationalizations. The decision aims to provide relief to these consumers, reversing previous exclusions of agricultural and unprotected domestic consumers from negative FCA adjustments. Separately, K-Electric (KE) consumers will receive a tariff relief of Rs 4.95 per unit for December 2024 FCA, amounting to Rs 4.94 billion, which will be reflected in March 2025 bills. This marks the fourth consecutive negative FCA for KE customers since September 2024. The relief is attributed to factors like zero furnace oil use and increased power supply from CPPA-G. Various stakeholders, including consumer representatives, discussed the FCA's impact, with some requesting FCA adjustments in the summer months to offset higher electricity bills.