Cement: Local cement dispatches likely to be down by 3% MoM in Nov-2024 5MFY25 local sales likely to be down by 13% YoY – By Topline Research

Dec 3 2024


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan local cement dispatches are likely to be down by 3% MoM to clock in at 3.19mn tons in Nov-2024. Dispatches are anticipated to decline by 2% YoY. Our analysis is based on the provisional numbers of 17 days, based on which local sales stands at 1.87mn tons, while as per our channel checks in 24 days of the month, sales was 2.55mn tons.
  • MoM decrease in local cement dispatches is due to seasonal winter impact mainly in North and political party protest in last week of the month. However, government led construction activity in South is likely to lead to MoM increase of 7%, according to channel checks.
  • Nov-2024 domestic sales are likely to be 3.19mn tons compared to 4MFY25 average of 2.85mn tons.

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Annual Strategy: Market Strategy 2025 Inflation likely to remain in single digits for most of CY2025 – By Chase Research

Dec 20 2024



  • Inflation expected to remain in single digits for most of CY2025.
  • Central Bank to continue easing. We consider single digit interest rates a high possibility in 2025.
  • Current Account should not present a challenge as improved remittances, recovering exports and administrative measures to keep balance in check.
  • Pakistan Credit Ratings could improve in 2025 unlocking flows and strengthening PKR.

Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 20 2024


Taurus Securities


  • Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF) is a subsidiary of Packages Limited which holds 69.3% of the Company. TRIPF produces Biaxially Oriented and Cast Polypropylene (BOPP & CPP) packaging films for food and beverage applications such as snacks, confectionery, dairy food, fresh cut vegetables, beverages etc., and non-food applications such as overwrapping, lamination, bag making etc. TRIPF has annual capacities of 78,000 tons for BOPP, 14,400 tons for CPP, and 32,600 tons for Metallizers.
  • TRIPF boasts a product portfolio of 19 specialized films, these include: Low Sealing Temperature Film, Ultra Low Temperature Sealable Film, Tobacco Non-Coated Transparent Wrap, Anti-Fog Films, Perforated Film, Matt Film, In Mould Labels, Low Density Label Film, High Gloss Label Film, Broad Seal High Barrier, Ultra High Barrier Metallized Film, Heat Resistive BOPP Film, Cold Seal, BOPE, BOPP Super Barrier Film, CPP High Speed Lamination Film, Paper Bond Film, CPP Metallized Low Temperature Heat Sealable Film, and CPP Metallized High Barrier Film.
  • As of 9MCY24, TRIPF’s revenue increased to PKR 21.8Bn compared to PKR 18.5Bn during the SPLY. Gross margin was recorded at 13% compared to 18% during the SPLY. The loss for the period was recorded at PKR 291Mn compared to a net profit of PKR 830Mn in the SPLY. The main reason cited for the loss during the year by the management was finance costs. Finance costs during 9MCY24 were recorded at PKR 1.7Bn compared to only PKR 700Mn in the SPLY. In addition to these, the gas tariff also increased by 110%.

Annual Strategy: Pakistan Market Strategy 2025 Breaking Barriers: KSE-100 Marches Toward 148K – By Sherman Research

Dec 20 2024


Sherman Securities


  • Pakistan’s KSE 100 index is all set to generate total return of 40%, breaching 148k level during CY25. Market is expected to reach target PE of 8x in line with last 10-year average PE versus current PE of 6.1x. Target PE of 8x is justified considering Pakistan’s economic outlook as most of the indicators are in line with average of last 10 years.
  • After meeting all the key performance indicators specially during last 2 years (maintaining primary budget surplus, tight monetary policy, energy sector reforms and regulating FX market), Pakistan is now looking at raising tax to GDP which is expected to be key performance criterion for timely disbursement under new IMF Program of US$7bn.
  • With inflation to remain below historical average and lower risk to external accounts during IMF Program, we expect policy rate to remain around 10% during next 2 years. Considering ample institutional liquidity, we expect diversion of Rs1.2-1.5trn funds (40% of the free float of KSE-100 Index) during CY25 from fixed income to equity market. Not only this, stable currency and cheap valuations will induce Foreigners’ interest in Pakistan market as they have been net sellers so far.

Economy: Recent PSX rally led by local funds buying Thanks to the falling return on fixed income instruments – By Topline Research

Dec 20 2024


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Market since Sep 2024 to-date has returned 35% in both Rs and US$ terms, thanks to the strong net inflows of Rs58bn (US$207mn) of local mutual funds during the same period mainly due to conversion from fixed income to equities. In this note, we have tried to gauge the expected quantum of further liquidity market can receive due to conversion from fixed income to equities.
  • The funds/investors are converting from Fixed income to equities as yields on fixed income instruments have fallen by 1253bps-1261bps from peak of 24.73% and 24.51% on 12M and 6M Treasury Bills in Sep 2023 to 12.20% and 11.9% on Dec 19, 2024.
  • Equities will remain the preferred choice for investors: Unlike previous years where investors use to buy dollars, real estate, gold, prize bonds etc. for earning higher returns, we believe, in this cycle equities will get some portion of liquidity due to (1) higher restrictions on purchase of dollars, (2) increase in taxations, compliance and FBR valuation rates of properties, and (3) discontinuation of high denomination unregistered prize bonds.

Textiles: Increased imports vital for export growth – By JS Research

Dec 20 2024


JS Global Capital


  • The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised cotton demand forecasts for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, likely offsetting the projected decline in Chinese demand as Western importers continue diversifying their sourcing away from China and Bangladesh. Consequently, Pakistan's prospects for value-added exports, such as knitwear and ready-made garments, have improved, albeit at the expense of lower yarn exports to China.
  • During 5MFY25, exports of knitwear, bedwear, and garments are up ~20% YoY while yarn exports are down 39%. On the other hand, Pakistan’s domestic cotton output is expected to fall to around 6-8mn bales (-36% to -17% YoY) due to 17% decline in cotton sowing area and lower crop yields.
  • To meet the cotton requirement for the export demand, Pakistan is expected to import 5mn bales of raw cotton, costing ~US$2bn (at current avg import prices) compared to merely 1.2mn bales or US$0.45bn in FY24.

Morning News: Pakistan’s exports rise 9.06% in five months, imports edge up 1.06%: PBS – By WE Research

Dec 20 2024



  • Exports from Pakistan increased by 9.06% in the first five months of FY2024-25, reaching Rs. 3,816,094 million, compared to Rs. 3,499,216 million in the same period last year. In November 2024, exports rose 7.17% year-on-year to Rs. 787,152 million. Key export commodities included knitwear, rice, readymade garments, and bedwear. Imports during July–November FY2024-25 totaled Rs. 6,248,611 million, a 1.06% increase from the previous year. November imports declined by 1.03% to Rs. 1,255,209 million. Key imports included petroleum products, LNG, palm oil, plastic materials, and mobile phones. Month-on-month, both exports and imports showed modest changes.
  • Pakistan and China agreed to build an expressway linking Gwadar Port with the new Gwadar International Airport and initiate feasibility studies for new motorways, including the Mirpur-Muzaffarabad and Karachi-Hyderabad routes, under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The agreement was made during a meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and China’s Vice Minister of Transport Li Ying in Beijing. Iqbal emphasized expediting major projects, including the KarachiHyderabad Section and ML-1 railway upgrade. He also proposed the Mashkhel-Panjgur Highway in Balochistan. Iqbal later met the President of the Export-Import Bank of China to discuss economic recovery and space projects. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the CPEC partnership for sustainable development and prosperity.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research

Dec 20 2024


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed another negative session, closing at 106,275, down 4,795 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,167mn shares compared to 1,112mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at 105,937; a fall below this level will extend the decline towards 105,510, followed by 103,048. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 107,980-110,040 levels. The Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI are heading down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 104,226 and 110,034, respectively.

Morning News: Pakistan, Türkiye Set Sights on $5 Billion Bilateral Trade Target – By Vector Research

Dec 20 2024


Vector Securities


  • Prime Minister Mohammad Shehbaz Sharif held a bilateral meeting with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of 11th D-8 Summit in Cairo today
  • The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors is likely to approve “Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project” worth $450 million on Friday (Dec 20), aimed at delivering beneficiary-driven, multi-hazard resilient reconstruction of core housing units affected by the 2022 floods in select districts of Sindh.
  • Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus said Thursday he had “agreed to strengthen relations” with Pakistan, a move likely to further test his country’s frosty relations with India.

Morning News: Pakistan, Türkiye Set Sights on $5 Billion Bilateral Trade Target – By Darson Research

Dec 20 2024


Darson Securities


  • Prime Minister Mohammad Shehbaz Sharif held a bilateral meeting with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of 11th D-8 Summit in Cairo today
  • The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors is likely to approve “Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project” worth $450 million on Friday (Dec 20), aimed at delivering beneficiary-driven, multi-hazard resilient reconstruction of core housing units affected by the 2022 floods in select districts of Sindh.
  • Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus said Thursday he had “agreed to strengthen relations” with Pakistan, a move likely to further test his country’s frosty relations with India.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024


Alpha Capital


  • We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.
  • Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.
  • Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.

Economy: Recent PSX rally led by local funds buying Thanks to the falling return on fixed income instruments – By Topline Research

Dec 20 2024


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Market since Sep 2024 to-date has returned 35% in both Rs and US$ terms, thanks to the strong net inflows of Rs58bn (US$207mn) of local mutual funds during the same period mainly due to conversion from fixed income to equities. In this note, we have tried to gauge the expected quantum of further liquidity market can receive due to conversion from fixed income to equities.
  • The funds/investors are converting from Fixed income to equities as yields on fixed income instruments have fallen by 1253bps-1261bps from peak of 24.73% and 24.51% on 12M and 6M Treasury Bills in Sep 2023 to 12.20% and 11.9% on Dec 19, 2024.
  • Equities will remain the preferred choice for investors: Unlike previous years where investors use to buy dollars, real estate, gold, prize bonds etc. for earning higher returns, we believe, in this cycle equities will get some portion of liquidity due to (1) higher restrictions on purchase of dollars, (2) increase in taxations, compliance and FBR valuation rates of properties, and (3) discontinuation of high denomination unregistered prize bonds.

Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGP): Gas price hike to help E&Ps and PSO to retire previous receivables backlog - By Topline Research

Dec 18 2024


Topline Securities


  • OGRA has announced its decision on the review petition filed by Sui Companies for the revenue requirement for FY25. OGRA has recommended to increase gas prices by 8.8% and 26% for SNGP and SSGC, respectively. As part of the IMF program, adjusting gas tariffs is a structural benchmark, and the revised tariffs are due before February 15, 2025.
  • Average Operating Assets (AOA): Sui companies' profitability is determined through return on average operating assets; therefore, rate of return and quantum of average operating assets holds high importance in analysis. SNGP in its review petition dated Oct 28, 2024 requested for AOA of Rs147bn vs. previously approved AOA of Rs108.2bn on May 20, 2024. However, OGRA has allowed AOA of Rs108.57bn, largely same as approved on May 20, 2024. While, required return on assets is 25.92%.
  • 50% of Finance cost allowed now as compared to 25% in previous determination of FY25: OGRA has now allowed 50% of the finance cost on running finance as pass through vs. earlier approval of 25% in May 20, 2024 review decision against request of 100% pass through.

Pakistan Economy: Dec 2024 CPI expected in range of 4.0-4.5% Likely to bottom out in Mar 2025 with reading of 2.75-3.25% - By Topline Research

Dec 17 2024


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Dec 2024 is expected to clock in at 4.0-4.5% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 1HFY25 average to 7.35% compared to 28.8% in 1HFY24.
  • During Dec 2024, Food Inflation is expected to decline by 0.45% MoM mainly on the back of decline in chicken, pulses, wheat flour, tomatoes and fresh vegetable prices by 1-14%. However, prices of edible oil, potatoes and sugar have gone up by 1-11%.
  • Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness decline of 0.5% MoM, led by significantly lower Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) of Rs0.19/kwh, replacing previous QTA of Rs1.74/kwh.

Pakistan Economy: SBP reduced policy rate by 200bps Nov 2024 to witness higher current account surplus – By Topline Research

Dec 16 2024


Topline Securities


  • Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced fifth consecutive rate cut and reduced the policy rate by 200bps to 13%, in line with the market expectations and poll conducted by Topline research. This takes cumulative interest rate cut to 900bps from peak of 22% in May/Jun 2024.
  • The real interest rate post this rate cut now stands at 810bps vs earlier 1010bps. To highlight, this is still higher than Pakistan’s historic average of 200-300bps.
  • External Debt Repayment in FY25: SBP reiterated that, debt repayments for FY25 are US$26.1bn. Till Dec 15, 2024, US$10.4bn are either paid or rolled over. While for remainder part of the FY25, the repayable amount is US$5bn (excluding rollovers).

Pakistan Market: 2024: Good year for IPO’s Companies raised Rs8.4bn for 7 IPOs, highest amount in last 3-Years – By Topline Research

Dec 13 2024


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan market (PSX) saw an increase in offerings in 2024, with the bourse witnessing 7 IPOs (including 2 GEM Board offerings), compared to just 1 IPO in the previous year.
  • The total amount raised from investors through the 7 offerings in 2024 stood at Rs8.4bn, marking the highest level since 2021, when there were 8 offerings that raised a total of Rs19.9bn.
  • The market saw immense enthusiasm in these offerings during the year as all of them were oversubscribed.

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Post merger 2025 consolidated EPS likely around Rs76 and SOTP at Rs474 BUY stance maintained – By Topline Research

Dec 12 2024


Topline Securities


  • On Dec 04, 2024, the Honorable Lahore High Court (LHC) has sanctioned the merger by way of amalgamation of FFBL with and into FFC.
  • The swap ratio worked out by auditor is 4.29 shares of FFBL for 1 share of FFC.
  • The record date to determine identities of FFBL shareholders for their respective entitlements shall be Thursday Dec 26, 2024.

Treet Corporation (TREET): Set to capitalize on business diversification – By Topline Research

Dec 12 2024


Topline Securities


  • TREET Group is composed of the holding company Treet Corporation (TREET) and its subsidiaries First Treet Manufacturing Modaraba (FTMM), Treet Battery (TBL), Renacon Pharma, Treet Trading and Treet Holdings.
  • In FY24, on consolidated basis, revenue stood at Rs25.09bn with Blades, Battery, Corrugated Boxes, Pharma Products, and Soaps contributing 43.6%, 34.8%, 10.8%, 5.5%, and 5.3% to the revenue respectively.
  • Manufacturing Capacity: TREET has a manufacturing capacity of 2,230mn units of Blades, 30K MT of Corrugated Boxes, 18k units of bikes, 1.2mn units of Batteries and 2.4mn session of Hemodialysis concentrates

Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Haval Monthly 4-wheelers sales down 42% MoM amidst year end effect; Likely to recoup in Jan 2025 – By Topline Research

Dec 11 2024


Topline Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) reported four-wheeler sales of 584 units in Nov 2024, reflecting a 42% MoM decline. This drop is primarily attributed to the typical year-end effect, where buyers prefer vehicles with a new-year registration. Customers often delay purchases as they prefer deliveries with print of the new year as newer registrations tend to enhance resale value.
  • As a result, car sales typically slow down in November and December, with many buyers postponing deliveries until the new year. This pattern is a common trend in Pakistan's auto sector.
  • Contrary to sales decline, production numbers remained almost flattish MoM (down by mere 1%), signaling robust demand of the product to be delivered in Jan 2025. Our channel checks in dealerships suggest that dealers are offering 2025 registrations to customers.

Bank: Morning News: Government efforts to collect more tax from banks on income from Govt. Securities – By Topline Research

Dec 9 2024


Topline Securities


  • In a recent development, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif constituted a committee to resolve the issue of the Advances to Deposit Ratio.
  • The committee, led by Deputy Prime Minister (Ishaq Dar), includes other members such as the Minister for Finance and Revenue (Mohammad Aurangzeb), Law Minister, Minister of State for Finance and Revenue, Attorney General of Pakistan, Finance Secretary, Chairman of the FBR, Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, and Ms. Asma Hamid.
  • To review the existing legal framework of fiscal measures related to Advance to Deposit Ratio of Banking Sector.

Engro Corporation: (ENGRO): Engro to acquire tower assets of Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited (PMCL) – By Topline Research

Dec 6 2024


Topline Securities


  • Engro Corporation (ENGRO) has notified exchange that, company has entered into an Amalgamation Agreement with PMCL and by way of this arrangement PMCL’s tower assets of its wholly owned subsidiary, Deodar Private Ltd, will vest into Engro Connect, a 100% subsidiary of ENGRO.
  • Based on the agreement, company will provide amount of US$187.7mn to PMCL alongside repayment of Deodar debt of US$375mn, taking total enterprise value to US$563mn. Reportedly, Deodar has total tower count of 10,500, translating into per tower price of US$53,590.
  • To note, Engro’s existing tower count under Engro Enfrashare is 4,063 with asset base of Rs69bn or US$250mn, translating into per tower asset value of US$61,545.