Burshane LPG (Pakistan) Limited (BPL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research
Dec 5 2024
Taurus Securities
BPL reported FY24 sales revenue of ~PKR 2.3Bn, reflecting a
33%YoY decrease from PKR 3.5Bn in FY23, primarily due to a 66% decline in sales
volume, which totaled 11,867MT. This reduction in volume is attributed to a
reduced local LPG quota and the higher prices of imported LPG. The Company
recorded loss of ~PKR 73Mn in FY24; depicting LPS of PKR 3.28/sh.
Regarding margins, BPL reported that their margins typically
range between 10%-11%, but when factoring in plant and other operational costs,
these margins reduce to 6%.The Management also noted an increase in other
expenses, primarily due to a bad debt provision of ~PKR 18Mn, which they
classified as a non-cash item.
Despite the drop in sales, BPL's market share remained
stable at 3%, amid increasing competition in the sector. The total LPG demand
is 2Mn tons, with 800,000MT met by local production and 1.2Mn tons by imports.
The Management expects LPG demand to grow at 20% annually and projects a 10-20%
increase in the Company’s sales moving forward.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY
compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP:
PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research
Jul 7 2025
HMFS Research
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the
United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While
both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is
expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other
trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at
risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The
agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US
goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in
Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the
weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for
any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s
tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those
three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering
above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters
to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to
take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably
12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to
which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His
comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on
Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect
on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research
Jul 7 2025
Vector Securities
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have
concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that
could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in
Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement
that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily
textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was
at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The
agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of
Pakistan.
Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during
June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the
Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in
June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said
Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Pakistan Cement: Cement demand to rise on PSDP push and construction revival in FY26 - By AKD Research
Jul 3 2025
AKD Securities
Cement dispatches reached 46.22mn tons in FY25, an increase of 2%YoY, driven
by higher export volumes, while domestic sales fell to eight-year low.
Industry-wide capacity utilization increased to 54.8% during FY25 (up 0.2ppt
YoY).
We expect domestic offtakes to grow by 6%YoY in FY26, amid easing interest
rates, pick-up in government spending, and sustained demand from the real
estate sector.
Pakistan Economy: Jun-2025 CPI of 3.2% takes FY25 average to 4.5% - By JS Research
Jul 2 2025
JS Global Capital
CPI for Jun-2025 clocked in at 3.2%. This takes FY25 average to 4.5%, down from FY24 average of 23.4%. Urban core
inflation eased to 6.9% YoY in Jun-2025, while rural core inflation declined to 8.6% YoY.
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11% in the last MPC meeting, citing rising imports and
tensions in the Middle East as key risks adding uncertainty to the commodity outlook and inflation.
Despite the 11ppt decline in the policy rate over the past 12-months, the real interest rate (RIR) still hovers around ~7.8ppt,
advocating the case for further rate cut during FY26.
Economy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2HCY25 - By AHCML Research
Jul 1 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 2.68% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26. Pakistan’s economy is expected to recover modestly in
FY25, with services growing 2.9% YoY, supported by commodity sectors. Industrial growth is forecasted at 3.2% YoY, driven by LSM recovery, though energy-related challenges
pose risks. Agriculture is set to grow 1.8% YoY, led by livestock and forestry despite a decline in major crops. A shift to renewable energy is expected to cut costs and ensure
stable power supply, boosting efficiency.
This growth is supported by lower interest rates backed by lower inflation and a stable PKR. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in FY26, aided by improving supply of
food related commodities, stability in PKR and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
The IMF agreement has boosted investor confidence, while a clear roadmap for debt management, FDI commitments from friendly countries, and ambitious privatization
efforts signal an economic turnaround. High-impact projects like Reko Diq and energy sector reforms under the SIFC enhance Pakistan's appeal as an investment destination,
creating opportunities for investors to leverage these developments at the PSX.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same
period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to
increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected
at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil
(16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Strong interest from potential buyers… Dec’25 TP of PKR 352, warrants a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research
Jun 30 2025
Taurus Securities
We reiterate our ’BUY’ rating for Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) with a Dec’25 target price of PKR 352/sh. offering
an upside of 26% over the last day’s close. Our investment thesis
primarily focuses on the Company’s strategic business advantages like: i) Presence in the South (2nd largest producer in
the South) and the export market (15% share of Pakistan’s cement exports); and ii) Cost advantages (low dependence on the
National Grid); coupled with an attractive valuation.
In addition, the location of the Company’s plant offers it immense strategic advantages like proximity to major projects like
CPEC-Phase-II, Reko Diq and other mining & highway projects
etc.; specially in the context of Balochistan, along with access to
sea ports like Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. Other triggers
also include savings due to lower finance costs, going forward.
Moreover, recently the Company has also attracted strong interest from potential buyers in light of its sponsor’s intentions of a
potential sale of the Company. The latter can be a strong catalyst
for the current share price of the Company as it continues to
trade at a massive discount on a replacement cost basis. Hence, a
potential acquisition offer may be well above the current price.
Morning News: Sovereign default risk; Pakistan most improved economy: Bloomberg - By Vector Research
Jun 30 2025
Vector Securities
Pakistan stands out globally as the most improved economy in terms of reduction in
sovereign default risk, as measured by CDS-implied probability. As per the latest data posted
by Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan leads the world in sovereign risk improvement and tops
global EM rankings. Pakistan topped Global EM Rankings in Default Risk Reduction, as the
country has recorded the largest drop in sovereign default risk globally over the last 12
months.
In a timely supportive move, China has extended rollover and refinancing of its $3.4 billion
commercial loans, facilitating Islamabad to meet the IMF condition of keeping the foreign
reserves at over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30. China has rolled
over $2.1 billion, which has been lying in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the last three
years, and also refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid
back two months ago. Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500
million from multilateral financing has also been received, an official confided.
Flood project; Govtseeks $31m financing boost from WB
The government of Pakistan has requested the World Bank for increasing the financing
envelope by $31 million as well as restructuring of Integrated Flood Resilience and
Adaptation Project.
Economy: Pakistan-US Trade Talks Near Conclusion: Major Breakthrough on Tariffs Expected Next Week - By AHCML Research
Jun 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan and the United States are set to conclude trade negotiations next week, aiming to address reciprocal
tariffs and strengthen bilateral economic ties. The talks, led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, reflect a strategic push to reset relations amid evolving global alignments. A
key focus is easing the 29% US tariff on Pakistani exports, imposed under former President Trump, as Pakistan
posted a USD3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024.To rebalance trade and attract US goodwill, Pakistan has
offered to increase imports of American goods, including crude oil, and provide investment incentives, particularly
in the mining sector.
A joint webinar this week showcased Pakistan’s USD7 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project, drawing interest from
US investors and officials. The US Export-Import Bank is currently evaluating financing proposals worth USD500mn
to USD1 billion for the project.
As the U.S. maintains high tariffs on key textile-exporting countries like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Pakistan
faces relatively moderate tariffs, higher than Egypt and Turkey, but far more favorable than many others. This
creates a strategic opening for Pakistan to increase its market share in the U.S., particularly in high-demand
categories where it already has a foothold. These include cotton trousers, knit shirts, denim, towels, bed linen, and
curtains.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to
an all-time intraday high of
133,862.01, driven by optimism
over trade negotiations,
macroeconomic stability, and a
strong corporate earnings outlook.
Falling inflation, strengthening FX
reserves, and capital inflows are
enhancing investor confidence,
while higher taxes on alternative
assets are redirecting capital into
equities. With earnings season
ahead and technical indicators
breaking new ground, we expect the
bullish momentum to persist in the
near term, supported by favorable
macro trends and reallocation from
fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research
Jul 7 2025
HMFS Research
The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862
mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed
investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific
momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the
U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline.
While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable
deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC
reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at
Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational
strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by
expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The
KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session.
Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders
included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term
breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall
sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic
improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound
stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05
through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k
bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of
the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been
implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned
development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY
compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP:
PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd
(INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM,
reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative
budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units,
supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at
131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously.
The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target
133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in
the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive
outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate
support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research
Jul 7 2025
HMFS Research
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the
United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While
both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is
expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other
trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at
risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The
agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US
goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in
Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the
weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for
any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s
tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those
three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering
above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters
to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to
take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably
12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to
which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His
comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on
Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect
on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research
Jul 7 2025
Vector Securities
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have
concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that
could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in
Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement
that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily
textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was
at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The
agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of
Pakistan.
Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during
June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the
Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in
June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said
Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research
Jul 7 2025
Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif,
Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing
investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the
Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by
Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential
American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude
fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia
driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a
show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research
Jul 4 2025
HMFS Research
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session,
with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before
closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by
sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants
continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive
macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index
posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at
199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included,
WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the
primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling
P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS)
spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk,
catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the
market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term
consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the
medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued
IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue
to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient
fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation
discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain
critical in navigating market dynamics.
Cement: June’25 dispatches down 26%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jul 3 2025
Taurus Securities
Total Cement dispatches in June’25 down 26%MoM on the back
of lower construction demand and rise in geo-political conflict,
declining exports i.e. domestic and export sales dropped by 29%
MoM and 13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, total domestic sales were down 16% in June’25 as higher taxes along with
higher FED and increase in the cost of construction materials
has reduced construction demand compared to the SPLY. However, exports during June’25 surged massively by 82%YoY on
account of increase in clinker and cement demand from the regional/exporting countries during the period.
North-based domestic sales decreased 26%MoM in June’25 due
to decline in the construction activities amid bad weather conditions and lower construction demand. Wherein, export sales
were down 14%MoM amid escalation of war in the MiddleEast. South-based domestic sales dropped significantly by 44%
MoM in June’25. On the export front, South-based exports were
down 13%MoM, respectively.
On a YoY basis, North-based domestic sales down 14%YoY in
June’25 due to lower construction demand i.e. impact of higher
taxes and surge in construction material cost. However, Northbased exports were up significantly by 91%YoY, reflecting higher demand from the export regions. On the South front, domestic sales during June’25 decreased by 23%YoY. However, export
sales surged by 79%YoY to 0.65Mn tons, respectively.
Economy: Jun’25 Volumes surge 2%MoM, up 8%YoY - By Taurus Research
Jul 2 2025
Taurus Securities
Petroleum products off-take for Jun’25 stood at approximately
1.56Mn tons, reflecting a monthly growth of 2%. Similarly, on a
yearly basis, sales were up 8%YoY. The increase in volumes on a
MoM basis was primarily driven by lower POL prices along with
controlled smuggling activities.
Specifically, volumes for MS increased 5%MoM and 5%YoY. HSD
volumes grew 9%YoY growth but declined 8%MoM. However,
FO sales increased 62%MoM but increased 22%YoY, primarily
due to low RLNG consumption and excess of LNG supply and
heightened electricity demand.
Moreover, FY25 saw a surge in POL sales which were up 7%YoY
primarily due to higher demand for MS, HSD, HOBC and KERO,
up 6%, 10%, 1.7x and 19%YoY, respectively.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Strong interest from potential buyers… Dec’25 TP of PKR 352, warrants a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research
Jun 30 2025
Taurus Securities
We reiterate our ’BUY’ rating for Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) with a Dec’25 target price of PKR 352/sh. offering
an upside of 26% over the last day’s close. Our investment thesis
primarily focuses on the Company’s strategic business advantages like: i) Presence in the South (2nd largest producer in
the South) and the export market (15% share of Pakistan’s cement exports); and ii) Cost advantages (low dependence on the
National Grid); coupled with an attractive valuation.
In addition, the location of the Company’s plant offers it immense strategic advantages like proximity to major projects like
CPEC-Phase-II, Reko Diq and other mining & highway projects
etc.; specially in the context of Balochistan, along with access to
sea ports like Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. Other triggers
also include savings due to lower finance costs, going forward.
Moreover, recently the Company has also attracted strong interest from potential buyers in light of its sponsor’s intentions of a
potential sale of the Company. The latter can be a strong catalyst
for the current share price of the Company as it continues to
trade at a massive discount on a replacement cost basis. Hence, a
potential acquisition offer may be well above the current price.
TRG Pakistan Limited (TRG): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research
Jun 25 2025
Taurus Securities
The principal activity of TRG Pakistan is to manage a portfolio of investments in the business process outsourcing sector
through its associate, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL). TRG Pakistan invests in the Technology, IT enabled
services, and medicare insurance sectors. Its clients include companies from The Global 100. Through TRGIL, TRG Pakistan
owns a 13% stake in both Afiniti and IBEX. Afiniti focuses on AI-based contact center optimization and IBEX specializes in
outsourced customer interactions. Afiniti is controlled by Vista Lend Consortium. IBEX was listed on NASDAQ in 2020.
IBEX recorded 3QFY25 topline growth of 11%YoY at USD 540Mn, while 1QFY25 and 2QFY25 toplines recorded a growth of
4%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively. IBEX continues to outperform its peers with a 75% increase in its share price during the LTM,
breaking the USD 30 level. Afiniti halved its senior debt by converting 50% of it into convertible preferred stock.
During 9MFY25, TRG recorded interest income of PKR 1.7Mn compared to PKR 1.8Mn during the SPLY. The Company
recorded administrative and other expenses of PKR 456Mn compared to PKR 199Mn during the SPLY. This resulted in an
operating loss of PKR 454Mn during 9MFY25 compared to PKR 196Mn during the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jun 24 2025
Taurus Securities
We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at
3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation.
Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at
4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general
price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables
like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes
(up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17%
MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the
prices of other food items for the month.
However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming
months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10
FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Morning News: In another twist, Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire - By Taurus Research
Jun 24 2025
Taurus Securities
US President Donald Trump
said late on Monday that a ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran.
Pakistan has announced to extend its airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft for another month until July
23, 2025.
The potential closure of
the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints —could
deal a devastating blow to Pakistan’s already fragile economy, with soaring production,
shipping, and insurance costs threatening industrial output, exports, and employment.
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Limited (JDMT): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research
Jun 20 2025
Taurus Securities
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Ltd was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public Company in 1960. The Company is mainly
engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of yarn.
In 9MFY25, sales clocked in at PKR 1.5Bn as compared to PKR 4.5Bn, down 67% over the SPLY mainly due to the suspension
of production activities, weak demand, limited availability of cheaper imported yarn and inability to pass on price impact.
The Company recorded gross loss of 29ppts arriving at -26% compared to 3% in the SPLY driven by the significant increase in
its fuel & power costs from 18% to 20% during the period.
Finance costs arrived at PKR 218Mn compared to PKR 266Mn, down 18% over the SPLY driven by lower interest rate. Loss
after tax arrived in at PKR 595Mn as compared to PKR 150Mn, up 3.0x over the SPLY primarily attributable to lower sale price
of yarn and higher energy prices.
Economy: May’25 CAB posts a deficit of USD 103Mn - By Taurus Research
Jun 18 2025
Taurus Securities
Trade deficit continues to widen (up 16%MoM and 22% over the
SPLY) as Pakistan’s CA posted a deficit of USD 103Mn during
May’25. Goods exports fell 6% on a sequential basis. Whereas,
goods imports increased 5%MoM. Services deficit recorded a
contraction of 8% during the month to arrive at USD 2.7Bn in
11MFY25, up 1% over the corresponding period last year.
Remittances were the savior yet again, reflecting a growth of 16%
over the previous month and 29% overall FYTD, clocking-in at
USD 34.9Bn during 11MFY25. Consequently, 11MFY25 current
account remains in a surplus of ~USD 1.8Bn. State Bank of Pakistan expects overall CAB for FY25 to post a sizeable surplus.
A dissection of the surge in imports shows that while petroleum
imports posted a 7%MoM drop, machinery and transport group
imports were up 17%MoM and 30%MoM, respectively. The latter
is a strong indicator of uptick in economic activity. However, the
situation poses a serious risk in case petroleum imports also
surge on the back of soaring oil prices due to the evolving geopolitical situation. Resultantly, trade deficit is likely to widen further over the next few months, driving an even higher deficit.
Cement : Lahore High Court upholds 6% Royalty on Punjab Manufacturers - By Taurus Research
Jun 17 2025
Taurus Securities
In a recent development, the Lahore High Court has upheld its decision, to maintain the
higher royalty charge i.e. 6% of the ex-factory cement price (PKR 1,250-1,350 per ton) –
previously PKR 250/ton in FY24 for Punjab based manufacturers - ruling against the
cement companies. We believe the affected Companies are likely to file on appeal against
the judgment in the Supreme Court.
Hence, the decision cannot be considered final as yet. Nevertheless, cement companies
operating out of Punjab are already providing for the higher royalty charge. However,
encashment of bank guarantees for securing on earlier stay order may have slight impact
on cash flows for these companies.
In contrast, KPK based cement producers are already enjoying high margins on selling
cement bags at the discounted prices in Punjab. To recall, the KPK government
announced provisional budget where they increased royalty charge from PKR 250/ton to
PKR 350/ton. Resultantly, the disparity remains huge in the royalty charges of KPK and
Punjab cement manufacturers i.e. PKR 950-1,050 per ton difference.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research
Jun 16 2025
Taurus Securities
State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting
today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with
expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation
in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward –
albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent
budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation,
although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction
next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also
noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade
deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed
FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil
prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East.
Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as
susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions,
volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed
budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
