Morning News Govt reaffirms commitment to complete 37th IMF programme – By Darson Research

Dec 6 2024


Darson Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to ensuring a smooth and successful completion of the thirty-seven month IMF programme. He was talking to IMF’s new Resident Representative for Pakistan Mahir Binici in Islamabad Thursday.
  • Saudi Arabia has agreed to extend the $3 billion deposit held in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for another year, providing critical support to Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves.
  • Pakistan's total liquid foreign reserves reached $16.6 billion as of November 29, 2024, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). These reserves include $12 billion held by the SBP and $4.6 billion held by commercial banks. The SBP reserves increased by $620 million during the week, primarily due to an official inflow of $500 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW) held it's corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results for 3QFY25 and share the company's future outlook.
  • SAZEW plans to complete its four-wheeler manufacturing expansion by March 2026 and introduce new NEV models. The company will also focus on expanding its export markets (mainly three wheelers) and the local dealership network. Sazgar currently has a network of 20 four-wheeler dealers, with expansion underway as new centers in Mardan and Peshawar are set to open soon.
  • The production capacity of the company will increase from 40-50 cars a day to 90-100 cars a day post expansion.
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Economy: Pakistan Federal Budget FY26 Preview Fiscal consolidation to continue; Third consecutive year of primary surplus - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Fiscal consolidation to continue: Pakistan is set to announce Federal Budget FY26 on Jun 02, 2025. We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net. Furthermore, we believe, this Budget FY26 hold high importance from policy point of view as various additional legislative engagements are likely to be undertaken i.e. inclusion of Section 114c, National Tariff Policy, Captive Power Levy Ordinance, removing cap on Debt Servicing Surcharge (DSS) amongst others.
  • Government’s commitment to IMF for FY26 Budget: Government has committed with IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability. The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for third consecutive year after 2 decades. The govt. has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt.
  • FBR FY26 Tax revenue growth target could be lowest in 6 years: FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3tn, up 16-18% YoY, which will be a lowest % growth in last 6 years. FBR has achieved 5-year revenue CAGR of 25% from FY21-25. We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, ~12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600bn, we estimate.
Power: Apr’25 generation up 22%YoY / 25%MoM - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Power generation in Apr’25 clocked in at 10,511GWh, reflecting a 22%YoY increase and a 25%MoM jump, driven by seasonal recovery in demand as temperatures rose. This marks a significant rebound from Mar’25, when generation stood at 8,409GWh, following a dip to 6,945GWh in February due to winter-related slowdown in both household and industrial consumption.
  • Cumulatively, 10MFY25 power generation stood at 100,658GWh, reflecting a slight 0.3% YoY decline compared to 100,966GWh in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation saw a sharp rebound, increasing by 78%MoM and 11%YoY, contributing 2,306GWh—driven by higher power demand. Coal-based generation, which was the highest contributor in the mix, surged 1.9xYoY to 2,579GWh and rose 33%MoM— likely due to improved plant availability and lower global coal prices. However, nuclear generation declined by 8%YoY and 15% MoM, contributing 1,882GWh. Meanwhile, generation from expensive sources like furnace oil and HSD dropped to just 1% of the mix, in line with the Government’s continued shift toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Pakistan Power: Power generation marks highest YoY growth since Apr-2022 - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per latest data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Power generation during Apr-2025 clocked in at 10,513GWh, posting a significant increase of 22% YoY. Cumulatively, power generation during 10MFY25 remained flat with a marginal dip of 0.4% YoY, clocking-in at ~100,661GWh.
  • Average cost of generation for Apr-2025 stood at Rs8.95/kWh, remaining flat YoY. Nevertheless, on a sequential basis, average cost dipped 3%.
  • The sequential decline in generation cost is mainly attributable to higher contribution from Hydel plants in generation which stood at 22% in the energy mix during Apr-2025 compared to 15% during the last month.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 entering the resistance range - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 119,931, up 960 points DoD. Volumes stood at 668mn shares compared to 438mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to face resistance at 120,797 (all-time intraday high) as a break above may start a new momentum towards 123,375 and 125,947 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support between 118,740 and 119,340 levels. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ’Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below 118,527. The support and resistance levels are at 119,338 and 120,315, respectively.
Morning News: IMF yet to decide on budget relief request - By Vector Research

May 22 2025


Vector Securities


  • Seeking effective and practical steps for the realisation of agriculture income tax and improvements in retail sector taxation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to take a position on Pakistan’s request for relief measures in the upcoming budget, due on June 2.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan’s exports to United States of America (USA) is $4.4 billion as compared to imports of US$1.9 billion with the trade surplus of $2.5 billion during current Financial Year 2024-25 (up to March).
  • Pakistan’s total investment plunged into the lowest range despite a slight improvement in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25, mainly due to the assumption of reliance on increased public investments. Private sector investment stagnated, standing at 9.1 percent in the current fiscal year compared to 9 percent in the last financial year.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:
  • To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.
  • Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton
Morning News: Govt to stay firm on IMF commitments: Aurangzeb - By Darson Research

Jan 29 2025


Darson Securities


  • Minister for Finance Mohammad Aurangzeb made it clear on Tuesday that the government would stick to the commitments made with the IMF under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). He also hinted that the tax burden on salaried class might be rationalised in the coming budget.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday advised Pakistan to stay on course and show some patience amid growing demand from the private sector to open up the economy to create jobs and reduce unemployment.
  • The World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, emphasised on Tuesday that the $20 billion lending will be insufficient to achieve the 10 years' development goals, and Pakistan will have to mobilise more resources to overcome its challenges.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern that recently saw a breakdown. Price has moved below the lower trendline, signaling a possible bearish continuation.
  • Pivotal point around 115,345 is acting as a major resistance, CPR resistance at upper band around 114410. On the flip side CPR support at lower band around 113250. If it fails to honor, then it may retest Support around 112675 or even 111625.
Morning News: Bulk of Pakistan’s foreign debt repayment for FY25 already repaid: SBP chief - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • In a press conference held to announce the key interest rate, the SBP chief also said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided on a cut of 100 basis points, keeping in mind the inflation outlook and other developments. Meanwhile, responding to a query after the briefing, the SBP governor said Pakistan’s foreign debt that was due to be repaid during the current fiscal year was $26.1 billion. Out of this, an amount to the tune of $16 billion in loans will either be rolled or repaid. “An amount of $12.3 billion is rollovers agreed with the lenders, whereas $3.7 billion are commercial loans, which will also be repaid and refinanced,” he said.
  • Pakistan’s central bank is progressing with the issuance of new design currency notes, with the first new banknote expected to be released by the end of this year. The release of the new notes would occur in phases but did not disclose which specific denomination would be released first. “All currency notes will be issued gradually, but we are still in the final stages of approval,” he stated.
  • The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has facilitated the energy sector by opening gas market for the private sector, which is expected to contribute Rs71 billion per year to circular debt reduction. Additionally, the government will collect Rs13 billion annually on account of sales tax. Circular debt, which has plagued the energy sector for decades, has now crossed Rs1.6 trillion. Exploration and production (E&P) companies are owed $700 million owing to delay in payments by clients and gas curtailment. The recent decision of selling 35% gas, found by exploration firms, to a third party will help to resolve such non-payment issues. Earlier, oil and gas exploration companies were allowed to sell 10% of gas to third parties, which the current government increased to 35% in a bid to open the market and improve cash flow for energy firms.
Morning News: Policy rate cut hopes rise as weekly inflation hits decade’s low - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan’s inflationary pressures appear to be easing at a fast pace, as the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of just 0.52 percent for the week ending January 23, raising hopes of a possible policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan next week.
  • Pakistan must simplify regulations and make its economic outlook predictable to attract more investment and significantly spur growth, according to a senior official from the World Bank quoted by Bloomberg. The South Asian country can see its annual growth rate accelerate to as much as 8pc if it doubles investment and better utilizes its assets and human capital, Martin Raiser, the bank’s vice president for South Asia, said in an interview in Islamabad on Friday.
  • Currency market experts have warned that the absence of channels for attracting dollar inflows could pressure the rupee as the government may need to borrow from commercial banks at higher interest rates to meet its debt repayment obligations. They also noted that the US dollar is gaining strength against major Asian and European currencies following Donald Trump’s taking over as the 47th president of the world’s largest economy. This could further contribute to weakening the rupee, which has remained stable against the greenback for over a year thanks to some stringent measures, including restricting outflows and a crackdown against smuggling.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Daily Chart 27 January 2025, Monday - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index is currently trading around 114880 after making high of 115779 within strong rejection, and Failed to re-enter into Ascending channel on Hourly chart, mentioned in previous post.
  • Now it’s moving in a Symmetrical triangle on daily time frame in which Breakout trajectory (BT) is Between 114990 and 115870. The market is currently in a range-bound phase within CPR levels, Upper Band (UB) 114720, Middle Band (MB) 114300 and Lower Band (LB) 113660.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 23 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 23 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index has broken the ascending trendline, after a strong rejection around 115040 at Pivotal point, led to a sharp decline. Short-term bearish pressure is dominant after breaking CPR support around 114725, Indicating a potential short-term bearish move.
  • Currently, it is testing trendline support near CPR support around 113,640. Support Levels:(Trendline Support) around 113,060 (Lower Support) 111,600 (Pivotal Point) RSI at 31.68, approaching the oversold zone, suggesting a possible pull back.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 16 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index remains in a consolidation phase, and hovering around the CPR levels Upper Band (UB) around 114,680, Middle band (MB) around 113935 and Lower Band (LB) around 113190. A sustained move below these levels could trigger further downside.
  • Index is still facing rejection from the descending trendline resistance at 115,820, indicating strong selling pressure near this level, while 114300 is a decisive level for further upside or more downside.
  • Support levels at 113,935 (marked by yellow dotted lines) may act as key levels to watch for potential reversals. Volume: Declining volume indicates reduced participation, signaling caution.
Morning News: World Bank approves $20 billion loan – By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank board has approved a $20 billion loan package for Pakistan, but the framework document stated there will be challenges in its successful implementation due to political divisions and a worsening security situation in two provinces. The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the 2025-2035 period lists the political divide in Pakistan and the deteriorating security situation in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) as "critical" risks to the successful implementation of the $20 billion official lending package.
  • Saudi Development Fund (SDF) could invest over $100 million in Pakistan's mining infrastructure, said kingdom Mining Minister Bandar Alkhorayef on Wednesday. He also confirmed that Saudi mining company Manara Minerals was looking at investing in Pakistan's Reko Diq mine.
  • Pakistan’s model of growth — dominated by (public) consumption, high levels of debt, low productivity and poor capital accumulation — is increasingly unsustainable and requires measures to increase investment and productivity, while heavily investing in human capital accumulation to increase the country’s long-term growth potential, says the World Bank.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto Industry Showing Signs Of Recovery – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) released latest production and sales data for the month of Dec-24. The passenger car sales enhanced by 60% on YoY for Dec-24 (not including Jeeps, IMV’s, Pickups) as 7,864 units were sold as compared to 6,410 units in Dec-23. Further on MoM basis there was a decline seen of 1% as 7,864 cars were sold against 7,909 cars in the previous month. The incline on (YoY) sales was due to higher consumer demand amid declining interest rates.
  • Honda Atlas Cars posted stable figures on MoM for Dec-24 as the company sold 1,110 units as compared to 1,112 units in previous month. The company grew by an impressive 23% on YoY basis as 1,110 cars were sold in Dec-24 as compared to 901 in the SPLY. This growth was due to the increase in Civic/City category and BR-V and HR-V variants which both grew by 23%.
  • Indus Motors showed a decline of 25% on YoY basis as the company sold 1,655 units as compared to 2,194 units in the previous period of Dec-23. The company posted an impressive growth of 142% on YoY basis as 1,655 units were sold as compared to 684 in the SPLY. This was driven by the Corolla, Yaris Cross category which went ↑109% and by the Fortuner category ↑ 284%. This impressive growth was due to the reasons mentioned above plus Corolla Cross has had a positive response from the market which should provide support to the company's sales moving forward.
Morning News: WB pledges $40bn to Pakistan under 10-year framework – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank (WB) has pledged to provide $40 billion to Pakistan under the 10-year Country Partnership Framework (CPF), according to sources in the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Out of the total $40 billion, $20 billion would be provided through International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
  • Saudi Arabian mining company Manara Minerals could invest in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine in the next two quarters. Manara, a joint venture between state-controlled miner Ma’aden and the $925-billion Public Investment Fund (PIF), was set up as part of the kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil, including by buying minority stakes in assets overseas.
  • Pakistan plans to issue Yuan-denominated Panda Bonds by June 2025 to enhance its capital market integration with China, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb said.