Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Post merger 2025 consolidated EPS likely around Rs76 and SOTP at Rs474 BUY stance maintained – By Topline Research

Dec 12 2024


Topline Securities


  • On Dec 04, 2024, the Honorable Lahore High Court (LHC) has sanctioned the merger by way of amalgamation of FFBL with and into FFC.
  • The swap ratio worked out by auditor is 4.29 shares of FFBL for 1 share of FFC.
  • The record date to determine identities of FFBL shareholders for their respective entitlements shall be Thursday Dec 26, 2024.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • To recall, FFC posted its CY24 results for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The company demonstrated its financial performance in CY24 post merger, with equity and reserves rising to PKR 132 billion (vs. PKR 62 billion SPLY), long term investments reaching PKR 77 billion (vs. PKR 49 billion SPLY), short term investments increasing to PKR 216 billion (vs. PKR 96 billion SPLY), and property, plant & equipment expanding to PKR 58 billion (vs. PKR 40 billion SPLY). However, as a result of the merger, audit adjustments related to receivables and other items in 4QCY24 impacted profitability, leading to lower earnings than anticipated.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited has conducted its CY24 analyst briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • FFC has posted PAT of PKR64.7bn (EPS: PKR45.5) in CY24 vs. PKR29.7bn (EPS: PKR23.32) in SPLY, amid higher offtakes coupled with increase in product prices. Additionally, the CY24 income statement includes two quarters of FFBL's financials. Along with the result, company has also announced dividend of PKR36.5/sh in CY24 vs. PKR15.5/sh in SPLY.
  • On lower gross margins management mentioned that’s its mainly attributable to audit adjustment amid amalgamation of of FFBL into FFC. However, we await detailed account for further clarity on this front.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): Dividend Below Expectations, But Overall Performance Holds Steady - By IIS Research

Jan 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • FFC posted its CY24 results today for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On an unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on a consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter against our expectation of PKR 25/sh, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The results also reflect a PKR 4 billion impairment loss on the company's investment in its subsidiary. Gross profit and net profit margins stood at 34% and 17%, respectively, while the effective tax rate was recorded at 42%.
  • CY23 figures have not yet been restated to incorporate the FFBL amalgamation. A more detailed breakdown is awaited to allow for a comprehensive review, performance comparison, and clarity on specific financial line items.
Fertilizer: FFC & EFERT: Volume led EPS growth expected in 4Q – By JS Research

Jan 24 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 4QCY24 earnings estimates for Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), where we expect FFC to report EPS of Rs17.6 post-merger with Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL), while EFERT is likely to post an EPS of Rs8.4 for the quarter.
  • Alongside the result, we also expect FFC to announce a cash dividend of Rs24.5/share (2HCY24E DPS), resuming the payout post amalgamation of FFBL into FFC. To recall, FFC did not announce any cash dividend during 3QCY24 to ensure equitable distribution of dividends post-merger. Cumulatively, dividend payout during CY24 is likely to hover around Rs40/share.
  • We expect EFERT to announce Rs8.2 DPS for 4QCY24, taking CY24 DPS to Rs21.7. We believe EFERT will remain on investors radar due to its decent double-digit dividend yield of 13% for CY25E.
Pakistan Market: SAZEW, GLAXO, AIRLINK, FFC & MARI top performer in KSE 100 Basket – By Topline Research

Dec 30 2024


Topline Securities


  • Benchmark KSE 100 Index jumped 85% in PKR (87% in USD) in 2024, with only one trading session left. Market value (market capitalization) of listed companies at PSX also increased by 61% to reach Rs14.6trn.
  • Pharmaceuticals, Jute and Transport were the best performing sectors in 2024 as their market cap increased by 198%, 182%, and 130% respectively. On the other hand, chemicals, Modarabas, and Textile Weaving sectors remained the worst performing sectors posting decline of 54%, 33% and 2%, respectively in 2024.
  • Pharmaceuticals posted a strong performance due to the improved financial results after decline in raw material prices, stable currency, lower inflation and deregulation of non-essential drugs. Haleon Pakistan (HALEON) saw its market capitalization rise by 409%, followed by GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (GLAXO) with a 385% increase, and Macter International (MACTER) with a 274% rise in 2024.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Post merger 2025 consolidated EPS likely around Rs76 and SOTP at Rs474 BUY stance maintained – By Topline Research

Dec 12 2024


Topline Securities


  • On Dec 04, 2024, the Honorable Lahore High Court (LHC) has sanctioned the merger by way of amalgamation of FFBL with and into FFC.
  • The swap ratio worked out by auditor is 4.29 shares of FFBL for 1 share of FFC.
  • The record date to determine identities of FFBL shareholders for their respective entitlements shall be Thursday Dec 26, 2024.
Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
  • Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
  • FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports remained flat at US$4.8bn during Mar’25. This stability was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum and food sectors on a weighted average basis, while agriculture imports increased.
  • On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$42.7bn (up 9%YoY) during 9MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of machinery, textile and agriculture, while petroleum and food imports declined.
  • Exports increased to US$2.6bn (up 6%MoM) during Mar’24. Likewise, during 9MFY25, exports clocked in at US$24.7bn (up 8%YoY), mainly due to growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Pakistan Economy: Power sector circular debt resolution plan in the offing - By Foundation Research

Apr 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan's power sector has become a key challenge in the country's macroeconomic balancing act. Stabilizing the economy hinges on resolving power sector issues, which took center stage in recent IMF negotiations for the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. In a bid to settle the amount in a single go, the government has plans to inject Rs1.5 trillion to tackle the circular debt crisis, clearing overdue liabilities and paving the way for sector stability.
  • Commercial banks will provide nearly Rs1.275 trillion of the bailout package, despite already having significant exposure to the power sector's circular debt. The deal, negotiated between the government and banks, offers below-KIBOR interest rates, potentially saving the government 3-5% on debt servicing costs. Contrary to news flow of banks being pressured into the deal, top banking executives and government officials have assured that the agreement was reached mutually.
  • According to news flow, a term sheet was signed between the government and banks at a large commercial bank in Karachi, with disbursements slated to begin next month. This financial intervention aims to curb the energy crisis and prevent further debt accumulation.
Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.
  • Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.
  • We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.
Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY
  • In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By Vector Research

Apr 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s current account posted a record all-time high monthly surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, fueled by historic inflows of home remittances, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by 14 percent during the first nine months of this fiscal year (FY25). According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country fetched FDI amounting to $1.644 billion in July-March of FY25 compared to $1.442 billion in the same period of last fiscal year (FY24), showing an increase of $202 million. During the period under review, FDI inflows were $2.472 billion as against $828 million outflow.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $127 million to $10.57 billion during the week ended April 11 due to external debt repayments, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also decreased by $91 million to $15.66 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks increased by $36 million to $5.09 billion.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025



  • Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.
  • Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Pakistan Bank: Banks earnings to fall 19% YoY and 12% QoQ in 1Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post a 12% QoQ decline in earnings in 1Q2025, amid a fall in Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to decrease by 11% QoQ to Rs279bn due to (1) a decline in the average policy rate from 15.2% in 4Q2024 to 12.3% in 1Q2025, and (2) 10% QoQ decline in advances growth.
  • As per SBP’s weekly publication, advances of the banking sector declined by 10% QoQ from Rs15.6trn as of Dec 27, 2024, to Rs13.9trn as of Feb 28, 2025
Economy: Falling Commodity Prices amidst tariff war Impact on Pakistan Economy and Stock Market - By Topline Research

Apr 8 2025


Topline Securities


  • In the aftermath of tariff war, initiated by US and retaliated by other nations, the Bloomberg commodity index has declined 8% in last 3 sessions. Within this, crude oil prices (brent) and Richards Bay Coal Future (April) are down by 14.3% to US$64.2/bbl and 6.1% to US$88.5/ton.
  • The falling commodity prices shall impact on Pakistan’s macros including external accounts mainly current account, inflation, and fiscal accounts amongst others. We have run sensitivity analysis of decline in oil prices by US$10/barrel, this brings down oil related import bill (including RLNG) to the extent of US$2-2.1bn. In addition to oil, Pakistan can also save US$250- 300mn annually from coal, LPG and Palm oil, if lower levels of prices persists. Oil prices also affects inflation directly and with US$10/barrel decline in oil, the inflation will be directly impacted by 20bps, assuming benefit passed on to the consumers. Details are below;
  • Pakistan Imports 20mn tons of crude and refined oil annually: During FY24, Pakistan imported 9mn tons of crude and 10.3mn tons of refined oil (HSD, Petrol etc.), translating into total ~145mn barrels of equivalent oil. Every US$1/barrel decline in oil prices will reduce import bill by US$145-150mn and every US$10 per barrel will bring savings of US$1.5bn on petroleum oil front.
Insurance: Listed Non-Life Insurance profits up 35% in 2024 to Rs17.4bn - By Topline Research

Apr 7 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's listed Non-Life (General) Insurance companies reported profits of Rs17.4bn in 2024 which is up by 35% YoY compared to 2023 and better than last 5-year CAGR of 19%.
  • Higher profits are led by better underwriting results, and higher Investment Income.
  • In 2024 Net Premiums increased by 25% YoY to reach Rs68.6bn compared to 2023. Net premiums have increased due to growth in all major segments including Fire & Property, Motor, Marine.
Fertilizer: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308K tons, down 54% YoY - By Topline Research

Apr 4 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024.
  • Similarly, Urea sales is expected to decline by 11% MoM. This will take 1Q2025 offtake to 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY compared to 1.8mn tons in 1Q2024.
  • This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 837k tons in Mar-2025, up from 536k tons in Feb-2025.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Pharmaceuticals: Pakistan Listed Pharma Sector Analysis 2024 Deregulation improved sales and margins - By Topline Research

Mar 27 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan listed pharmaceuticals sector’s earnings were up 3.1x to Rs24.8bn in calendar year 2024. This jump in profitability is primarily attributed to higher net sales and improved gross margins.
  • Net sales increased by 15% YoY to Rs318bn in 2024, primarily driven by a increase in drug prices.
  • To recall, in Feb-2024 the government approved the deregulation of non-essential drug prices, which allowed companies to increase prices without any cap as it was under previous drug policy to increase the prices of all other non-essential drugs by up to the full increase in CPI (with a cap of 10%). While prices of essential drugs are still capped with formula of up to 70% of the increase in CPI (with cap of 7%).
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases
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