Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Discovery of Bettani-2 in Wali Block – By AKD Research

Dec 13 2024


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC), the operator of Wali Block, has discovered a second well i.e. Bettani-2, having a flow rate of 2.1mmcfd/74bpd of gas and oil, respectively. To note, Bettani-1 well is presently yielding 14.6mmcfd/978bpd of gas and oil as per Oct’24 data, and has been in production since Jun’23. Additionally, a third well Bettani Deep-1 is under drilling as well. In summary, the following discovery is expected to contribute an annualized EPS impact of PkR0.16/sh for OGDC.
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • OGDC is Pakistan’s largest exploration and production company. It is a market leader in terms of its exploration acreage (covering around 39%), oil and gas reserves, and production. OGDC holds 33% of Pakistan Minerals Private Limited (PMPL), 25% of Pakistan International Oil Limited (PIOL), and 20% of Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI). OGDC owns 112 Development & Production Leases, with 79 operated and 33 non-operated, respectively.
  • In 1HFY25, OGDC contributed 48%, 28% and 34% in total production of Oil, Natural Gas and LPG, respectively. Where, average daily saleable crude oil, gas and LPG production was 31.4K barrels, 672MMCF and 629 tons, respectively. In 1HFY25, remaining recoverable reserves (on net basis) were 491.41MMBOE on 1P basis and 710.74MMBOE on a 2P basis. Further, four wells were spud and three gas condensate discoveries were made during 1HFY25.
  • The management discussed operational highlights of the Company where they shared new developments i.e. acquisition of 174 line KM of 2D, 131 Sq.Km of 3D seismic survey. Four wells were spud (comprising of 3 exploratory wells and 1 development well. Exploratory efforts yielded three new gas condensate discoveries namely: i) Chak 202-1 (Sui Main Limestone), Mari East EL in district Rahim Yar Khan; ii) Baloch-2 (Sember), Baloch D & PL in district Sanghar; and iii) Bettani-2 (Samana Suk), Wali EL in district Laki Marwat in KPK, respectively.
Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY, DPS PKR 4.05 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.05/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 clock in at PKR 100.4bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 13% YoY mainly on the back of a lower oil prices (-10.2% YoY), and an appreciating exchange rate (+5% YoY).
  • Exploration expenses climbed to PKR 4.0bn (+68% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Exploration Companies: Reko Diq feasibility update: Long-term value emerges for OGDC & PPL - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • Barrick Gold Corporation, the 50% operating partner in the Reko Diq Mining project, recently provided an update on the highly anticipated revised feasibility study in its latest press release for the project.
  • The updated feasibility study for Reko Diq estimates a 37-year mine life, with total capital investment estimated at US$8.83bn (Phase-1 requiring US$6.0bn).
  • Factoring in OGDC/PPL’s pre-divested 8.33% stakes, we estimate the mining project to contribute PkR51/81 per sh to respective valuations before adjusting for the minority stake discount.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Discovery of Bettani-2 in Wali Block – By AKD Research

Dec 13 2024


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC), the operator of Wali Block, has discovered a second well i.e. Bettani-2, having a flow rate of 2.1mmcfd/74bpd of gas and oil, respectively. To note, Bettani-1 well is presently yielding 14.6mmcfd/978bpd of gas and oil as per Oct’24 data, and has been in production since Jun’23. Additionally, a third well Bettani Deep-1 is under drilling as well. In summary, the following discovery is expected to contribute an annualized EPS impact of PkR0.16/sh for OGDC.
Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
  • Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
  • FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports remained flat at US$4.8bn during Mar’25. This stability was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum and food sectors on a weighted average basis, while agriculture imports increased.
  • On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$42.7bn (up 9%YoY) during 9MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of machinery, textile and agriculture, while petroleum and food imports declined.
  • Exports increased to US$2.6bn (up 6%MoM) during Mar’24. Likewise, during 9MFY25, exports clocked in at US$24.7bn (up 8%YoY), mainly due to growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Pakistan Economy: Power sector circular debt resolution plan in the offing - By Foundation Research

Apr 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan's power sector has become a key challenge in the country's macroeconomic balancing act. Stabilizing the economy hinges on resolving power sector issues, which took center stage in recent IMF negotiations for the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. In a bid to settle the amount in a single go, the government has plans to inject Rs1.5 trillion to tackle the circular debt crisis, clearing overdue liabilities and paving the way for sector stability.
  • Commercial banks will provide nearly Rs1.275 trillion of the bailout package, despite already having significant exposure to the power sector's circular debt. The deal, negotiated between the government and banks, offers below-KIBOR interest rates, potentially saving the government 3-5% on debt servicing costs. Contrary to news flow of banks being pressured into the deal, top banking executives and government officials have assured that the agreement was reached mutually.
  • According to news flow, a term sheet was signed between the government and banks at a large commercial bank in Karachi, with disbursements slated to begin next month. This financial intervention aims to curb the energy crisis and prevent further debt accumulation.
Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.
  • Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.
  • We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.
Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY
  • In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By Vector Research

Apr 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s current account posted a record all-time high monthly surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, fueled by historic inflows of home remittances, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by 14 percent during the first nine months of this fiscal year (FY25). According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country fetched FDI amounting to $1.644 billion in July-March of FY25 compared to $1.442 billion in the same period of last fiscal year (FY24), showing an increase of $202 million. During the period under review, FDI inflows were $2.472 billion as against $828 million outflow.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $127 million to $10.57 billion during the week ended April 11 due to external debt repayments, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also decreased by $91 million to $15.66 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks increased by $36 million to $5.09 billion.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025



  • Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.
  • Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
  • Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
  • FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Oil Marketing Companies: PSO & APL 3QFY25E Result Previews - By AKD Research

Apr 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC players under our coverage universe i.e. PSO and APL are anticipated to report a combined NPAT decline of 17%YoY/28%QoQ during 3QFY25E.
  • The earnings dip is due to i) lower volumetric sales during the period, ii) lower effective taxes during SPLY, and iii) modest inventory losses due to softening oil prices.
  • Our coverage universe is expected to record a 37%YoY decline in finance costs during 3QFY25E, with the bulk of the relief from PSO (finance cost ↓39%YoY).
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 1QCY25 Result Review — Higher NII led to earnings incline -- By AKD Research

Apr 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 1QCY25 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR36.1bn (EPS: PkR28.8) for the quarter, up 126%YoY/39%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher than expected NII and provisioning reversal. In addition to the result, bank announced an interim cash payout of PkR11/sh and stock split in the ratio of 2 shares for 1 share held.
  • NII recorded at PkR84.2bn in 1QCY25, up by 200%YoY/30%QoQ, primarily due to higher investment book, up 60%YoY/27%QoQ and advances, up 7.1%YoY, compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR17.0bn in 1QCY25, down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, on the back of 55%YoY/69%QoQ dropped in gain on sale of securities. However, fee income increased to PkR7.5bn during the quarter, up 26%YoY/113%QoQ
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Fourth discovery at Spinwam-1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Apr 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a milestone fourth discovery at the Spinwam-1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 70.3mmcfd of gas and 310bpd of oil (at choke size of 64/64”). The latest discovery is anticipated to push cumulative output from the field to 127.6mmcfd of gas and 569bpd of oil.
  • We estimate Spinwam-1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR13.35/sh for MARI and PkR2.37/sh for OGDC. Notably, the incremental EPS impact from the latest find comes out to be PkR7.4/1.3 per share for MARI and OGDC, respectively.
Economy: IMF supplements EFF program with Resilience and Sustainability Facility - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The IMF team has reached SLA with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of EFF and a new 28-month arrangement of US$1.3bn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Fund recognizes Pakistan's substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite a challenging global environment.
  • Successful completion of first review would pave the way for KSE-100 to reach 165,215 by Dec’25.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
Systems Limited (SYS): 4QCY24 Result Review - Earnings up 32% YoY, with MENA region at the helm - By AKD Research

Mar 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4QCY24 financial results today, wherein the company posted Profit after Tax (PAT) of PkR2.0bn (EPS: PkR6.9) vs. PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY, up 31.5%YoY. However, earnings were below our estimate, primarily due to higher than anticipated operating expenses and impairment losses. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR6.0/sh and announced a share split in a 5:1 ratio.
  • Company reported revenue of PkR19.2bn in 4QCY24, compared to PkR16.1bn in SPLY, up 19.0%YoY. The growth in topline is attributed to robust growth of 17.4%/13.6%/84.3%YoY in the MENA/North America/Europe regions, respectively.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 24.4%, up from 22.0% in 4QCY23. This increase can primarily be attributed to improvement in gross margins in North America region to 30.2% from 25.7% in 4QCY23. In contrast, MENA region saw a drop in gross margins to 26.8%, declining from 28.0% in 4QCY23.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Second discovery at Spinwam -1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a second discovery at the Spinwam -1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 20.5mmcfd of gas and 117bpd of oil. Notably, first discovery at Spinwam -1 was announced in late Feb’25, with the latest find bringing cumulative production potential to 33.4mmcfd of gas and 137bpd of oil. We estimate Spinwam -1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR3.48/sh for MARI and PkR0.62/sh for OGDC.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
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