Pakistan Economy: SBP Post Monetary Policy Announcement Briefing Takeaways Dec’24 – Taurus Research

Dec 16 2024


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation is likely to remain volatile over the short-term, given that core inflation continues to remain sticky, along with expectations of hike in inflation in the earlier part of next year. Nevertheless, Nov’24 NCPI eased significantly. Elsewhere, compared to advanced economies and emerging economies, inflation is coming down faster in Pakistan.
  • Meanwhile, GDP growth in FY25 is expected to be better than anticipated earlier. Wherein, latest high frequency indicators show a broad-based improvement in economic activity. Similarly, downside risks to Agriculture output have also subsided. Uptick in economic activity is also supported from satellite-based imagery. Performance is also reasonable compared to peers.
  • Exports and remittances remain strong. Imports are also growing, though favourable global commodity prices and low domestic oil demand have kept the growth in check. Consequently, FX reserves have more than tripled since Jan’23. Moreover, SBP’s forward liabilities have also reduced considerably. Pakistan’s FX debt composition has also improved.

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Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research

Apr 18 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
  • Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
  • FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports remained flat at US$4.8bn during Mar’25. This stability was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum and food sectors on a weighted average basis, while agriculture imports increased.
  • On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$42.7bn (up 9%YoY) during 9MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of machinery, textile and agriculture, while petroleum and food imports declined.
  • Exports increased to US$2.6bn (up 6%MoM) during Mar’24. Likewise, during 9MFY25, exports clocked in at US$24.7bn (up 8%YoY), mainly due to growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Pakistan Economy: Power sector circular debt resolution plan in the offing - By Foundation Research

Apr 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan's power sector has become a key challenge in the country's macroeconomic balancing act. Stabilizing the economy hinges on resolving power sector issues, which took center stage in recent IMF negotiations for the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. In a bid to settle the amount in a single go, the government has plans to inject Rs1.5 trillion to tackle the circular debt crisis, clearing overdue liabilities and paving the way for sector stability.
  • Commercial banks will provide nearly Rs1.275 trillion of the bailout package, despite already having significant exposure to the power sector's circular debt. The deal, negotiated between the government and banks, offers below-KIBOR interest rates, potentially saving the government 3-5% on debt servicing costs. Contrary to news flow of banks being pressured into the deal, top banking executives and government officials have assured that the agreement was reached mutually.
  • According to news flow, a term sheet was signed between the government and banks at a large commercial bank in Karachi, with disbursements slated to begin next month. This financial intervention aims to curb the energy crisis and prevent further debt accumulation.
Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.
  • Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.
  • We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.
Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY
  • In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By Vector Research

Apr 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s current account posted a record all-time high monthly surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, fueled by historic inflows of home remittances, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan rose by 14 percent during the first nine months of this fiscal year (FY25). According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country fetched FDI amounting to $1.644 billion in July-March of FY25 compared to $1.442 billion in the same period of last fiscal year (FY24), showing an increase of $202 million. During the period under review, FDI inflows were $2.472 billion as against $828 million outflow.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $127 million to $10.57 billion during the week ended April 11 due to external debt repayments, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also decreased by $91 million to $15.66 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks increased by $36 million to $5.09 billion.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.
Morning News: March C/A posts $1.2bn surplus - By WE Research

Apr 18 2025



  • Pakistan recorded a historic monthly current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, driven by unprecedented remittance inflows of $4.1 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. This marked a 229% increase from March 2024 and a significant reversal from February 2025’s deficit. Cumulatively, the current account showed a $1.859 billion surplus in July–March FY25, compared to a $1.652 billion deficit in the same period last year. Analysts hailed this as a vital boost for the economy, easing pressure on the rupee, supporting foreign reserves, and reducing reliance on external borrowing. While the trade deficit widened to $18.73 billion due to increased imports, moderate export growth and a $2.32 billion services deficit highlighted ongoing challenges. Despite persistent financial pressures and IMF support under a $7 billion program, Pakistan’s external sector is showing signs of recovery backed by policy reforms and improved macroeconomic stability.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose by 14% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $1.644 billion compared to $1.442 billion during the same period in FY24, primarily due to strong inflows from China and Hong Kong and increased investment in the financial services and power sectors. China contributed the largest share at 41%, with its FDI doubling to $684.5 million. Despite this overall growth, March 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month decline of 91% in FDI. Economists attribute the positive trend to improved macroeconomic stability and IMF-backed reforms, but warn that sustained growth depends on consistent policies and political stability to maintain investor confidence.
  • Pakistan’s textile exports grew by 9.38% during July–March FY25, reaching $13.613 billion compared to $12.445 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Overall exports rose by 7.82% to $24.719 billion, with March 2025 exports totaling $2.646 billion—up 6.27% from February and 3.08% year-on-year. Textile exports in March specifically increased by 9.97% from February. However, rice exports declined by 5.91%, totaling $2.757 billion compared to $2.930 billion last year. Key export commodities in March included knitwear, readymade garments, bedwear, various rice types, cotton cloth, towels, and petroleum products, highlighting continued strength in the textile sector despite weaknesses in agricultural exports.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Textile: Mar’25 Textile exports up 10%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Textile exports arrived at USD 1.43Bn in Mar’25 as compared to USD 1.3Bn in the SPLY, reflecting a growth of ~10%YoY. Whereas, on a monthly basis it only increased by 1%MoM. The increase was mainly due to the higher exports of cotton yarn, knitwear, bed wear, ready-made garments, art & silk, made-up articles and other textiles up 30%YoY, 15%YoY, 19%YoY, 12%YoY, 9%YoY, 10%YoY and 11%YoY, respectively. Moreover, 9MFY25 textile exports increased 9%YoY to USD 13.6Bn as compared to USD 12Bn in the SPLY
  • In Mar’25, Basic textile exports totaled USD 205Mn, down ~2% YoY, mainly attributed to decline in exports of cotton cloth and yarn. Whereas, value added exports showed a significant increase of 13%YoY along with a 9%YoY increase in other textiles.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Fertilizer: Mar’25: Fertilizer off-take down 9%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total fertilizer off-take down 9%MoM in Mar’25 to 470,612 tons, continuing the disruption in water supply, weak agronomics and lower farm income from cash crops which has put a significant pressure in the production of major nutrients. Further, lower demand for the Rabi Season amid seasonality effect (Slowdown of activities in Ramadan and Eid holidays) has also dropped sales in Mar’25. On a YoY basis, total fertilizer off-take fell significantly by 50%YoY in Mar’25 on the back of lower demand owing to seasonal slowdown post Rabi sowing.
  • Total nutrient off-take down 50%YoY to 220K tons in Mar’25. Where, Nitrogen and Phosphate decreased by 52% and 42%, respectively. While, Potash off-take increased by 20%YoY in Mar’25.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.