KseAlert | Pakistan Economy: Oct’24 LSMI down 2.24%MoM

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: Undefined variable: share_research

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 127
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 127
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

Annual Strategy: Market Strategy 2025 Inflation likely to remain in single digits for most of CY2025 – By Chase Research

Dec 20 2024

Inflation expected to remain in single digits for most of CY2025.

Central Bank to continue easing. We consider single digit interest rates a high possibility in 2025.

Current Account should not present a challenge as improved remittances, recovering exports and administrative measures to keep balance in check.

Pakistan Credit Ratings could improve in 2025 unlocking flows and strengthening PKR.

Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 20 2024

Taurus Securities

Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF) is a subsidiary of Packages Limited which holds 69.3% of the Company. TRIPF produces Biaxially Oriented and Cast Polypropylene (BOPP & CPP) packaging films for food and beverage applications such as snacks, confectionery, dairy food, fresh cut vegetables, beverages etc., and non-food applications such as overwrapping, lamination, bag making etc. TRIPF has annual capacities of 78,000 tons for BOPP, 14,400 tons for CPP, and 32,600 tons for Metallizers.

TRIPF boasts a product portfolio of 19 specialized films, these include: Low Sealing Temperature Film, Ultra Low Temperature Sealable Film, Tobacco Non-Coated Transparent Wrap, Anti-Fog Films, Perforated Film, Matt Film, In Mould Labels, Low Density Label Film, High Gloss Label Film, Broad Seal High Barrier, Ultra High Barrier Metallized Film, Heat Resistive BOPP Film, Cold Seal, BOPE, BOPP Super Barrier Film, CPP High Speed Lamination Film, Paper Bond Film, CPP Metallized Low Temperature Heat Sealable Film, and CPP Metallized High Barrier Film.

As of 9MCY24, TRIPF’s revenue increased to PKR 21.8Bn compared to PKR 18.5Bn during the SPLY. Gross margin was recorded at 13% compared to 18% during the SPLY. The loss for the period was recorded at PKR 291Mn compared to a net profit of PKR 830Mn in the SPLY. The main reason cited for the loss during the year by the management was finance costs. Finance costs during 9MCY24 were recorded at PKR 1.7Bn compared to only PKR 700Mn in the SPLY. In addition to these, the gas tariff also increased by 110%.

Annual Strategy: Pakistan Market Strategy 2025 Breaking Barriers: KSE-100 Marches Toward 148K – By Sherman Research

Dec 20 2024

Sherman Securities

Pakistan’s KSE 100 index is all set to generate total return of 40%, breaching 148k level during CY25. Market is expected to reach target PE of 8x in line with last 10-year average PE versus current PE of 6.1x. Target PE of 8x is justified considering Pakistan’s economic outlook as most of the indicators are in line with average of last 10 years.

After meeting all the key performance indicators specially during last 2 years (maintaining primary budget surplus, tight monetary policy, energy sector reforms and regulating FX market), Pakistan is now looking at raising tax to GDP which is expected to be key performance criterion for timely disbursement under new IMF Program of US$7bn.

With inflation to remain below historical average and lower risk to external accounts during IMF Program, we expect policy rate to remain around 10% during next 2 years. Considering ample institutional liquidity, we expect diversion of Rs1.2-1.5trn funds (40% of the free float of KSE-100 Index) during CY25 from fixed income to equity market. Not only this, stable currency and cheap valuations will induce Foreigners’ interest in Pakistan market as they have been net sellers so far.

Economy: Recent PSX rally led by local funds buying Thanks to the falling return on fixed income instruments – By Topline Research

Dec 20 2024

Topline Securities

Pakistan Market since Sep 2024 to-date has returned 35% in both Rs and US$ terms, thanks to the strong net inflows of Rs58bn (US$207mn) of local mutual funds during the same period mainly due to conversion from fixed income to equities. In this note, we have tried to gauge the expected quantum of further liquidity market can receive due to conversion from fixed income to equities.

The funds/investors are converting from Fixed income to equities as yields on fixed income instruments have fallen by 1253bps-1261bps from peak of 24.73% and 24.51% on 12M and 6M Treasury Bills in Sep 2023 to 12.20% and 11.9% on Dec 19, 2024.

Equities will remain the preferred choice for investors: Unlike previous years where investors use to buy dollars, real estate, gold, prize bonds etc. for earning higher returns, we believe, in this cycle equities will get some portion of liquidity due to (1) higher restrictions on purchase of dollars, (2) increase in taxations, compliance and FBR valuation rates of properties, and (3) discontinuation of high denomination unregistered prize bonds.

Textiles: Increased imports vital for export growth – By JS Research

Dec 20 2024

JS Global Capital

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised cotton demand forecasts for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, likely offsetting the projected decline in Chinese demand as Western importers continue diversifying their sourcing away from China and Bangladesh. Consequently, Pakistan's prospects for value-added exports, such as knitwear and ready-made garments, have improved, albeit at the expense of lower yarn exports to China.

During 5MFY25, exports of knitwear, bedwear, and garments are up ~20% YoY while yarn exports are down 39%. On the other hand, Pakistan’s domestic cotton output is expected to fall to around 6-8mn bales (-36% to -17% YoY) due to 17% decline in cotton sowing area and lower crop yields.

To meet the cotton requirement for the export demand, Pakistan is expected to import 5mn bales of raw cotton, costing ~US$2bn (at current avg import prices) compared to merely 1.2mn bales or US$0.45bn in FY24.

Morning News: Pakistan’s exports rise 9.06% in five months, imports edge up 1.06%: PBS – By WE Research

Dec 20 2024

Exports from Pakistan increased by 9.06% in the first five months of FY2024-25, reaching Rs. 3,816,094 million, compared to Rs. 3,499,216 million in the same period last year. In November 2024, exports rose 7.17% year-on-year to Rs. 787,152 million. Key export commodities included knitwear, rice, readymade garments, and bedwear. Imports during July–November FY2024-25 totaled Rs. 6,248,611 million, a 1.06% increase from the previous year. November imports declined by 1.03% to Rs. 1,255,209 million. Key imports included petroleum products, LNG, palm oil, plastic materials, and mobile phones. Month-on-month, both exports and imports showed modest changes.

Pakistan and China agreed to build an expressway linking Gwadar Port with the new Gwadar International Airport and initiate feasibility studies for new motorways, including the Mirpur-Muzaffarabad and Karachi-Hyderabad routes, under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The agreement was made during a meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and China’s Vice Minister of Transport Li Ying in Beijing. Iqbal emphasized expediting major projects, including the KarachiHyderabad Section and ML-1 railway upgrade. He also proposed the Mashkhel-Panjgur Highway in Balochistan. Iqbal later met the President of the Export-Import Bank of China to discuss economic recovery and space projects. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the CPEC partnership for sustainable development and prosperity.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research

Dec 20 2024

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 index witnessed another negative session, closing at 106,275, down 4,795 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,167mn shares compared to 1,112mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at 105,937; a fall below this level will extend the decline towards 105,510, followed by 103,048. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 107,980-110,040 levels. The Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI are heading down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels currently stand at 104,226 and 110,034, respectively.

Morning News: Pakistan, Türkiye Set Sights on $5 Billion Bilateral Trade Target – By Vector Research

Dec 20 2024

Vector Securities

Prime Minister Mohammad Shehbaz Sharif held a bilateral meeting with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of 11th D-8 Summit in Cairo today

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors is likely to approve “Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project” worth $450 million on Friday (Dec 20), aimed at delivering beneficiary-driven, multi-hazard resilient reconstruction of core housing units affected by the 2022 floods in select districts of Sindh.

Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus said Thursday he had “agreed to strengthen relations” with Pakistan, a move likely to further test his country’s frosty relations with India.

Morning News: Pakistan, Türkiye Set Sights on $5 Billion Bilateral Trade Target – By Darson Research

Dec 20 2024

Darson Securities

Prime Minister Mohammad Shehbaz Sharif held a bilateral meeting with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of 11th D-8 Summit in Cairo today

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors is likely to approve “Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project” worth $450 million on Friday (Dec 20), aimed at delivering beneficiary-driven, multi-hazard resilient reconstruction of core housing units affected by the 2022 floods in select districts of Sindh.

Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus said Thursday he had “agreed to strengthen relations” with Pakistan, a move likely to further test his country’s frosty relations with India.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024

Alpha Capital

We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.

Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.

Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.

Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 20 2024

Taurus Securities

Tri-Pack Films Limited (TRIPF) is a subsidiary of Packages Limited which holds 69.3% of the Company. TRIPF produces Biaxially Oriented and Cast Polypropylene (BOPP & CPP) packaging films for food and beverage applications such as snacks, confectionery, dairy food, fresh cut vegetables, beverages etc., and non-food applications such as overwrapping, lamination, bag making etc. TRIPF has annual capacities of 78,000 tons for BOPP, 14,400 tons for CPP, and 32,600 tons for Metallizers.

TRIPF boasts a product portfolio of 19 specialized films, these include: Low Sealing Temperature Film, Ultra Low Temperature Sealable Film, Tobacco Non-Coated Transparent Wrap, Anti-Fog Films, Perforated Film, Matt Film, In Mould Labels, Low Density Label Film, High Gloss Label Film, Broad Seal High Barrier, Ultra High Barrier Metallized Film, Heat Resistive BOPP Film, Cold Seal, BOPE, BOPP Super Barrier Film, CPP High Speed Lamination Film, Paper Bond Film, CPP Metallized Low Temperature Heat Sealable Film, and CPP Metallized High Barrier Film.

As of 9MCY24, TRIPF’s revenue increased to PKR 21.8Bn compared to PKR 18.5Bn during the SPLY. Gross margin was recorded at 13% compared to 18% during the SPLY. The loss for the period was recorded at PKR 291Mn compared to a net profit of PKR 830Mn in the SPLY. The main reason cited for the loss during the year by the management was finance costs. Finance costs during 9MCY24 were recorded at PKR 1.7Bn compared to only PKR 700Mn in the SPLY. In addition to these, the gas tariff also increased by 110%.

Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC): Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 19 2024

Taurus Securities

SSGC reported a significant financial recovery in 1QFY24, posting a net profit of PKR 4.54Bn, reversing the net loss of PKR 5.57 Bn in 1QFY23. Revenue for the quarter increased by 1%YoY, reaching PKR 117.85Bn, primarily due to price adjustments.

Gross profit saw a substantial rise, reaching PKR 5.76Bn, compared to PKR 2.69Bn during the same period last year. This robust performance reflects improved operational efficiencies and effective cost management.

SSGC’s gas supply in FY23 dropped to 266 BCF, meeting about one-third of the country’s demand. Despite this, the Company reported a UFG rate of 10.14%, with an ongoing focus on reducing it to single digits in the coming years.

TPL Corp Limited (TPL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 19 2024

Taurus Securities

TPL Corporation holds ownership across multiple segments, including TPL Insurance, TPL Properties, and TPL Trakker, each contributing uniquely to the company’s growth and diversification. The conglomerate also recently received final approval from the State Bank of Pakistan for its joint venture with Abhi (Private) Limited to acquire up to 94.8% shareholding in FINCA Microfinance Bank Limited.

The company’s consolidated revenue for FY24 declined by 58%YoY to PKR 4.90Bn, compared to PKR 11.76Bn in FY23. This decline was primarily driven by subdued contributions from key verticals, compounded by rising costs and high financial expenses. Gross loss stood at PKR 338Mn versus a gross profit of PKR 7.31Bn last year, reflecting a significant erosion in margins.

On the operational front, TPL witnessed an escalation in its cost structure, with distribution expenses rising by 1.1x%YoY to PKR 418Mn and finance costs surging 47%YoY to PKR 2.58Bn due to elevated interest rates. Despite administrative expenses being rationalized, the operating loss widened to PKR 4.11Bn, marking a 2.3xYoY increase.

Dawood Lawrencepur Limited (DLL): 3QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 18 2024

Taurus Securities

Dawood Lawrencepur Limited was incorporated in Pakistan in the year 2004 as a public listed company by the amalgamation of Lawrencepur Woolen & Textile Mills Limited, Dawood Cotton Mills Limited, Burewala Textile Mills Limited and Dilon Limited. The Company manages investment in its subsidiaries and associated companies and is engaged in the business of trading and marketing of renewable energy solutions, mainly solar, to commercial and industrial consumers, along with the legacy textile business.

DLL holds strategic investments in its associated companies, including a 16.19% equity stake in Dawood Hercules and an interest in Lawrencepur, a company specializing in the textile industry.

The Company has its own power generation plant comprising Reon solar plant and Tenaga wind power.

Dawood Hercules Corporation Limited (DAWH): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 18 2024

Taurus Securities

DAWH is an investment holding company primarily focused on creating long-term value through strategic investments in prominent industries, such as energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and technology.

DAWH’s current investment portfolio as of September 30, 2024, included a strategic investment of PKR 65,139Mn, listed equity investments of PKR 11,650Mn, and mutual fund investments of PKR 550Mn, reflecting a well-diversified asset allocation strategy.

The Company’s equity portfolio delivered a solid return of 33.2% in 9MCY24, outperforming the KSE-100 index and generating an alpha of 3.3%. The portfolio is well-diversified, with banks holding the largest share at 48%, followed by E&Ps at 25% and IT at 20%.

Economy: Nov’25 CAB posts USD 729Mn surplus – By Taurus Research

Dec 18 2024

Taurus Securities

Positive news flows on the external front continue as Nov’25 posts Pakistan’s highest current account surplus of USD 729Mn since Feb’15—highest in almost a decade. Cumulatively, 5MFY25 current account is now in a surplus of USD 944Mn compared to a deficit of USD 1.7Bn over the corresponding period last year.

An analysis of the MoM change in the components of the current account reveals a MoM drop of 18% in the trade deficit, on account of lower imports mainly, as the biggest contributor to the MoM growth in the current account surplus. Wherein, a 29% MoM drop in petroleum imports along with a 13%MoM drop in transport imports and a 4%MoM fall in food imports, respectively were the major contributors to lower imports during Nov’25

Elsewhere, MoM exports were down 8% owing to 11%MoM decrease in textile exports, along with 39%MoM fall in petroleum exports also. Nevertheless, food exports were up 13%MoM in Nov’25, on account of 30%MoM surge in rice exports mainly. Meanwhile, workers’ remittances also posted a 5%MoM fall albeit maintain an average of ~USD 3Bn per month.

Textile: Nov’24 Textile exports up 11%YoY – By Taurus Research

Dec 18 2024

Taurus Securities

Textile exports arrived at USD 1.46Bn in Nov’24 as compared to USD 1.31Bn SPLY, reflecting a growth of 11%YoY but down 10% MoM. The increase was primarily attributable to higher exports of knitwear, bed-wear, towels, ready-made garments, tents & canvas, and made up articles up 17%YoY, 24%YoY, 14%YoY, 14% YoY, 19%YoY, and 8%YoY respectively. Whereas, 5MFY25 textile exports increased by 11%YoY clocking in at USD 7.6Bn as compared to USD 6.8Bn SPLY.

In Nov’24, Basic Textile exports totaled ~USD 220Mn, down 10% YoY, largely attributed to decline in exports of yarn, down 17% YoY. Whereas, Value Added and Other exports showed a significant increase of 18%YoY and 2%YoY, respectively.

According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginning Association's cotton arrival report as of December 02, 2024, cotton arrivals reported a decline of 33%YoY, arriving at ~5.19Mn bales as compared to ~7.75Mn bales in the SPLY. Wherein, Punjab saw a 34%YoY decrease in cotton arrivals, totaling ~2.45Mn bales, while Sindh saw a decline of 32%YoY, totaling ~2.73Mn bales, respectively.

Abbott Laboratories (Pakistan) Limited (ABOT): 9MCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Dec 17 2024

Taurus Securities

ABOT is a prominent pharmaceutical company in Pakistan, renowned for its expertise in the manufacturing and marketing of a wide range of pharmaceutical products. With two state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities located in Karachi, ABBOT operates across diverse sectors, including diagnostics, pharmaceuticals, and nutrition, as well as general health and diabetes care. The Company maintains a balanced portfolio, with a 50-50 mix of essential and non-essential products, which adapts to market demand fluctuations, ensuring the availability of critical healthcare solutions.

ABOT reported a PAT of ~PKR 4Bn for 9MCY24. This represents a significant improvement compared to a loss of ~PKR 793Mn during the same period last year. Despite the challenging economic conditions, ABBOT successfully maintained its market share, a testament to its resilience and strategic approach.

Recent performance improvements are due to the strategic initiatives by Management and the de-regulation of non-essential products. Pharmaceutical sales grew 22% due to the strong performance of established brands, while the diagnostic segment expanded by 13% through new customer acquisitions. The nutritional segment was up 25% benefiting from price adjustments. These factors have enhanced profitability, with an 8% increase in margins.

Pakistan Economy: Oct’24 LSMI down 2.24%MoM – By Taurus Research

Dec 17 2024

Taurus Securities

Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) fell 2.24%MoM in Oct’24, due to major decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (64%), Machinery & Equipment (61%) and Fabricated Metal (25%). Whereas, top performers were Automobiles (1.1x), Other transport Equipment (26%), Tobacco (17%) and Wearing Apparel (12%), respectively. 4MFY25 LSMI was down 1%YoY.

Textile production saw a slight 0.92%YoY increase in Oct’24 primarily due to increase in production of yarn, cloth, and terry & towels by 8.8%YoY, 0.76%YoY, and 3.84%YoY, respectively. Whereas, on monthly basis it increased by 2.09%MoM attributable to the increase in production of yarn, cloth, jute goods, Terry & Towels, woolen & carpet yarn, woolen & worsted cloth, and woolen blankets by 0.04%MoM, 0.07%MoM, 5.78%MoM, 5.56%MoM, 4.24%MoM, 3.30%MoM, and 41.6%MoM, respectively—driven by export demand at the winter season.

Annual Strategy: Strategy 2025 - The Bull run continues... Dec’25 Index Target: 138,000 points – By Taurus Research

Dec 13 2024

Taurus Securities

Bulls continued to dominate the market for the second year running as the KSE-100 index crossed the historic milestone of 100,000 points on November 28, 2024, and is currently trading at 110,810 points as of the last day close—translating into an incredible CYTD return of 77% (79% in USD terms), making the PSX one of the best performing equity markets in the world yet again.

Undoubtedly, the gains are attributable to the macroeconomic turnaround witnessed over the last eighteen months. Wherein, Pakistan’s external position has strengthened significantly under the IMF umbrella. Headline inflation is at a six year low, triggering a cumulative 700bps in interest rate cuts CYTD—commencing a shift in allocation to equities, and reviving foreign interest as Pakistan’s credit ratings improve. All complemented by attractive equity market valuations.

Now the question is whether all the positives have been priced-in? Are valuations still attractive enough? Has the bull-run run its course? Certainly, not! Although it seems imminent that the bullish acceleration witnessed over the last two years is less likely to be repeated next year, the KSE-100 index still continues to trade at a significant discount to its 10Yr mean as well as among its peer markets. Additionally, we believe that the influx of liquidity from other asset classes has only just begun.