Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024


Alpha Capital


  • We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.
  • Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.
  • Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.
Economy: IMF supplements EFF program with Resilience and Sustainability Facility - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The IMF team has reached SLA with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of EFF and a new 28-month arrangement of US$1.3bn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Fund recognizes Pakistan's substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite a challenging global environment.
  • Successful completion of first review would pave the way for KSE-100 to reach 165,215 by Dec’25.
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL): Solid foundations - By Insight Research

Mar 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on PPL with reserves based Dec’25 target price of PKR280/sh, implying 54% potential upside. With the consecutive increase in gas prices for past four semi-annual revisions, cashflow situation has improved significantly in state owned oil & gas companies where PPL’s cash collection ratio improved to ~100% in 1HFY25 vs. 73% in SPLY. As per 1HFY25 accounts, company’s CFO reached to PKR48.6bn vs. PKR32.1bn in SPLY, attributable to higher recovery from Sui companies.
  • The company's cash flow is expected to remain robust going forward due to higher recoveries from Sui companies. Additionally, IMF program will ensure that the Government will continue to pass on cost pressure to consumer. This will ease the company’s liquidity constraints, enabling it to expand exploration activities, focus on growth-related projects, and provide higher payouts.
  • The Government has taken steps to enhance the viability of the sector and reduce reliance on imports by increasing local production. Any progress in resolving the gas circular debt pileup would be highly beneficial for PPL, as company holds overdue trade debts of PKR544bn (PKR200/sh) from SOEs, as per Dec’24 accounts. Furthermore, Barrick Gold’s feasibility study for Reko Diq highlights a compelling 22% dollarized IRR, reinforcing its potential as a significant value driver for the company. Based on our initial estimates, Reko Diq is projected to contribute PKR87/sh to PPL’s valuation, positioning it as a key catalyst for long-term growth.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in at PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY, DPS PKR 2.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • PPL announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein, the company reported an EPS of PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share.
  • Net sales clocked in at PKR 61.3bn during 2QFY25, compared to PKR 73.0bn in SPLY, down 16% YoY, due to PKR appreciation against the greenback (5% YoY) and a decline in oil/gas production (-13%/-10% YoY).
  • The company posted exploration expenses of PKR 5.3bn (-20% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 6.7bn in SPLY, due to reduced exploration activity during the quarter.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY25 EPS expected at PKR 7.34, down by 33% YoY, DPS PKR 2.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • PPL is scheduled to announce its 2QFY25 financial result on 26 February 2025, wherein, we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 7.34, down by 33% YoY. Along with the result, we expect the company to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share.
  • Net sales are expected to clock in at PKR 61.5bn during 2QFY25, compared to PKR 73.0bn in SPLY, down 16% YoY, due to PKR appreciation against the greenback (1.8% YoY) and lower oil prices during the quarter (11.5% YoY).
  • Sequentially, exploration expenses are anticipated at PKR 4.4bn (-35% YoY) for 2QFY25 against PKR 2.6bn for 1QFY25, owing to a dry well encountered at Durug X-1.
Morning News: Oil extends gains on strong US demand hopes, Russia supply concerns - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices extended gains on Friday, headed for a weekly increase, as falling inventories of U.S. gasoline and distillate raised expectations of solid demand while concerns over supply disruptions in Russia lent support. Brent futures climbed 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.64 a barrel by 0123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.65. Both benchmarks were set for a weekly gain of about 3%.
  • Federal Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday that the “country has lost its credibility,” emphasising that urgent economic reforms are necessary to restore trust. During a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, headed by Senator Sherry Rehman, the top financial czar briefed lawmakers on the country’s climate financing challenges and its negotiations with international lenders.
  • An International Monetary Fund mission will arrive in Islamabad next week to discuss around $1 billion in climate financing for Pakistan, an adviser to the country’s finance minister said on Thursday. Khurram Schehzad told Reuters that the mission would visit from February 24 to 28 for a “review and discussion” of climate resilience funding.
Oil & Gas Exploration Companies: Reko Diq feasibility update: Long-term value emerges for OGDC & PPL - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • Barrick Gold Corporation, the 50% operating partner in the Reko Diq Mining project, recently provided an update on the highly anticipated revised feasibility study in its latest press release for the project.
  • The updated feasibility study for Reko Diq estimates a 37-year mine life, with total capital investment estimated at US$8.83bn (Phase-1 requiring US$6.0bn).
  • Factoring in OGDC/PPL’s pre-divested 8.33% stakes, we estimate the mining project to contribute PkR51/81 per sh to respective valuations before adjusting for the minority stake discount.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024


Alpha Capital


  • We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.
  • Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.
  • Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Discovery of second formation in Pateji X-1 – By AKD Research

Nov 29 2024


AKD Securities


  • Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), as operator of the Shah Bandar Block in District Sujawal, Sindh, has announced a second formation discovery at the Pateji X-1 well. The discovery is expected to yield flows of 12.4mmcfd/198bpd, taking cumulative flows from the well to 24mmcfd/400 of gas and oil, respectively.
  • PPL and MARI hold post-commerciality stakes of 63% and 32%, respectively, with estimated annualized EPS contribution of PkR0.70 for PPL and PkR0.81 for MARI.
Morning News: Oil edges lower after jump in US gasoline stocks, OPEC+ supply decision in focus – By Shajar Research

Nov 28 2024


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday, after a surprise jump in U.S. gasoline stocks ahead of the nation's Thanksgiving holiday sparked worry over demand in the top consumer of the motor fuel.
  • Stocks in Asia held to a narrow range on Thursday while bond yields slipped as traders took to the sidelines ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The yen pared gains from its previous session.
  • Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sardar Ali Amin Gandapur on Wednesday reiterated that the ongoing movement of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf will continue until the call of the founder (to call it off).
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Morning News: SBP reserves jump USD 5bn to USD 14.5bn, surpassing IMF target - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jul 3 2025


Alpha Capital


  • In a major achievement on the economic front, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign reserves jumped by USD 5bn to reach USD 14.51bn end of the last fiscal year (FY25), surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) target of USD 13.9bn.
  • National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has turned down the federal government’s plea to apply a revised uniform Schedule of Tariff (SoT) to K-Electric (KE), based on the previously determined tariff for the January–March 2023 quarter, a move likely to frustrate the Power Division.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has collected a historic PKR 545bn Income Tax from the salaried class in the last fiscal year ended on June 30, 2025, thus they became the highest contributors among all other sectors on account of direct taxes.
Morning News: All cut-motions rejected: NA approves PKR 3.951trn demands for grants - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jun 26 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Ahead of the passage of the 2025-26 federal budget on Thursday (June 26), the National Assembly on Wednesday approved PKR 3.951 trn demands for grants pertaining to ministries for finance, human rights, interior and national food security, to meet the expenditures during financial year ending June 30, 2026, by rejecting all cut-motions moved by opposition lawmakers.
  • In a major development, the bank account of any unregistered sales tax person (tax evader) can only be initially suspended for a period of three days from July 1, 2025.
  • The National Tariff Commission (NTC) has imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 21% on imports of polystyrene from China, a move that has placed importers in a difficult position.
Economy: MPC likely to keep the policy rate unchanged - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jun 13 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to convene on June 16, 2025. We expect the MPC to take a cautious stance and maintain the policy rate at 11%. Given the cumulative 11 percentage points reduction over the past 12 months, the SBP may opt to pause its rate-cutting cycle in the upcoming meeting. Our expectation is underpinned by several key factors, including rebasing of energy prices due at fiscal year-end, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and potential pressure on the PKR. These factors may influence the SBP to take a cautious stance and defer the rate cut until more clarity emerges.
  • Inflation recorded a historic low of 0.3% YoY in Apr-25, before rebounding to 3.5% in May. Additionally, end-June inflation is expected to clock in at 4.0% due to seasonal food price pressures, heatwave-driven costs and Eid-related demand. We view this upcoming uptick as temporary.
  • In contrast, some key cost adjustments, including potential increases in gas and electricity tariffs, are expected to be announced before the start of the new fiscal year (FY26). The full inflationary impact of these adjustments will have to be assessed. Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed international crude oil prices to ~USD 75/barrel, raising concerns on domestic inflation and external accounts. Given this uncertainty, we believe the central bank will adopt a prudent approach, maintaining the current policy rate at 11%.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Economy: MPC likely to cut policy rate by 50bps - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 2 2025


Alpha Capital


  • We anticipate the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to reduce the policy rate by 50bps in the upcoming MPC meeting on May 5th, 2025. The revised policy rate would settle at 11.5%. Our expectation is primarily driven by favorable economic factors, namely i) an improvement in external account, ii) a decline in headline inflation, and iii) falling global commodity prices. The geopolitical situation still remains fluid, with rising tensions on the eastern border alongside US-China trade war. These factors may influence the SBP to take a cautious stance and defer the rate cut until more clarity emerges.
  • The headline inflation is expected to settle within the SBP’s 5–7% medium-term target range in the next 12 months. A combination of falling imported inflation amid trade war and declining local food prices, backed by improved supply conditions, has dimmed the inflation outlook. Core inflation (NFNE) is also expected to taper off after being sticky at 9% since Dec-24, reinforcing our stance of a 50bps cut in the upcoming MPC meeting.
  • Pakistan’s current account posted an impressive surplus of USD 1.2bn in Mar-25, taking the cumulative 9MFY25 surplus to USD 1.9bn. The improvement was mainly backed by all-time high remittances, which surged to USD 4.1bn in Mar25, extending a sturdy support for the external account.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in at PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY, DPS PKR 2.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • PPL announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein, the company reported an EPS of PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share.
  • Net sales clocked in at PKR 61.3bn during 2QFY25, compared to PKR 73.0bn in SPLY, down 16% YoY, due to PKR appreciation against the greenback (5% YoY) and a decline in oil/gas production (-13%/-10% YoY).
  • The company posted exploration expenses of PKR 5.3bn (-20% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 6.7bn in SPLY, due to reduced exploration activity during the quarter.
Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY, DPS PKR 4.05 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.05/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 clock in at PKR 100.4bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 13% YoY mainly on the back of a lower oil prices (-10.2% YoY), and an appreciating exchange rate (+5% YoY).
  • Exploration expenses climbed to PKR 4.0bn (+68% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 20 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM) owing to the rising POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (- 20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
  • The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for consumers in Feb-24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Higher growth ahead, Still a Buy - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 7 2025


Alpha Capital


  • FY24 was a tumultuous year for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), characterized by demand destruction, elevated fuel prices, and a resurgence of smuggling activities from across the border, all of which hurt the OMC industry. However, the start of FY25 has been promising, and the outlook for the sector is positive as we witness a significant rebound in sales volumes. The past six months have been favorable for OMCs due to high volumetric sales, primarily driven by increased demand for Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD).
  • The growth in MS and HSD sales reflects a recovery in economic activity, particularly in the transportation and agricultural sectors, driven by falling commodity prices. We believe with the economic conditions stabilizing, further growth in MS and HSD sales volume is expected. Inflation has been steadily coming down, with the average inflation during CY24 recorded at 13.1%, compared to 30.9% last year. This is coupled with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% and a gradual recovery in large-scale manufacturing and service sectors, which will stimulate demand.
  • The government is expected to approve an increase in the OMC margins in Feb’25 following a recommendation by OGRA to increase margins from PKR 7.86/l to PKR 9.22/l. This is in line with the CPI-linked methodology of implementing margins and has been long overdue. An increase in margins will set the sector up for profitability.
Current:
Open:
Volume:
Change: ()
High:
Low:
52 Week High:
Vol Avg(12 m):
Free Float:
52 Week Low:
Market Cap:
Total Share:

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI:

MACD Signals

MACD DAILY:
MACD WEEKLY:

Simple Moving Avg (SMA)

SMA(10):
SMA(30):
SMA(60):
SMA(200):

Performance

One Month:
Three Months:
Six Months:
Twelve Months:

Support & Resistance

Support 1:
Resistance 1:
Support 2:
Resistance 2:

High & Lows

Period
High
Low