Annual Strategy: Market Momentum Ignites: Galloping Towards the Bull Run – By Darson Research

Dec 27 2024


Darson Securities


  • We project the KSE-100 Index to reach a significant milestone of 137,591 by December 2025. This target is based on a comprehensive analysis incorporating Target Price Mapping, Technical Indicators, and Earnings Growth Projections.
  • The global economic landscape is showing signs of recovery, with many central banks adopting a cautious stance toward monetary policy adjustments. As inflationary pressures ease, rate cuts are being calibrated to maintain progress toward inflation targets without overheating economies. This balanced approach is helping bolster demand and restore consumer confidence globally.
  • However, the outcome of the U.S. election is poised to have wide-ranging effects on global markets, economic policy, and central bank strategies. Investors are eager for a decisive result to mitigate the risk of prolonged uncertainty amid heightened market volatility. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 introduces additional unpredictability to an already uncertain economic landscape. While 2025 is expected to be marked by significant uncertainty and volatility, it also offers opportunities that are likely to become clearer as the year progresses.

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Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
Morning News: Govt to stay firm on IMF commitments: Aurangzeb - By Darson Research

Jan 29 2025


Darson Securities


  • Minister for Finance Mohammad Aurangzeb made it clear on Tuesday that the government would stick to the commitments made with the IMF under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). He also hinted that the tax burden on salaried class might be rationalised in the coming budget.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday advised Pakistan to stay on course and show some patience amid growing demand from the private sector to open up the economy to create jobs and reduce unemployment.
  • The World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, emphasised on Tuesday that the $20 billion lending will be insufficient to achieve the 10 years' development goals, and Pakistan will have to mobilise more resources to overcome its challenges.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern that recently saw a breakdown. Price has moved below the lower trendline, signaling a possible bearish continuation.
  • Pivotal point around 115,345 is acting as a major resistance, CPR resistance at upper band around 114410. On the flip side CPR support at lower band around 113250. If it fails to honor, then it may retest Support around 112675 or even 111625.
Morning News: Bulk of Pakistan’s foreign debt repayment for FY25 already repaid: SBP chief - By Darson Research

Jan 28 2025


Darson Securities


  • In a press conference held to announce the key interest rate, the SBP chief also said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided on a cut of 100 basis points, keeping in mind the inflation outlook and other developments. Meanwhile, responding to a query after the briefing, the SBP governor said Pakistan’s foreign debt that was due to be repaid during the current fiscal year was $26.1 billion. Out of this, an amount to the tune of $16 billion in loans will either be rolled or repaid. “An amount of $12.3 billion is rollovers agreed with the lenders, whereas $3.7 billion are commercial loans, which will also be repaid and refinanced,” he said.
  • Pakistan’s central bank is progressing with the issuance of new design currency notes, with the first new banknote expected to be released by the end of this year. The release of the new notes would occur in phases but did not disclose which specific denomination would be released first. “All currency notes will be issued gradually, but we are still in the final stages of approval,” he stated.
  • The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has facilitated the energy sector by opening gas market for the private sector, which is expected to contribute Rs71 billion per year to circular debt reduction. Additionally, the government will collect Rs13 billion annually on account of sales tax. Circular debt, which has plagued the energy sector for decades, has now crossed Rs1.6 trillion. Exploration and production (E&P) companies are owed $700 million owing to delay in payments by clients and gas curtailment. The recent decision of selling 35% gas, found by exploration firms, to a third party will help to resolve such non-payment issues. Earlier, oil and gas exploration companies were allowed to sell 10% of gas to third parties, which the current government increased to 35% in a bid to open the market and improve cash flow for energy firms.
Morning News: Policy rate cut hopes rise as weekly inflation hits decade’s low - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan’s inflationary pressures appear to be easing at a fast pace, as the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of just 0.52 percent for the week ending January 23, raising hopes of a possible policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan next week.
  • Pakistan must simplify regulations and make its economic outlook predictable to attract more investment and significantly spur growth, according to a senior official from the World Bank quoted by Bloomberg. The South Asian country can see its annual growth rate accelerate to as much as 8pc if it doubles investment and better utilizes its assets and human capital, Martin Raiser, the bank’s vice president for South Asia, said in an interview in Islamabad on Friday.
  • Currency market experts have warned that the absence of channels for attracting dollar inflows could pressure the rupee as the government may need to borrow from commercial banks at higher interest rates to meet its debt repayment obligations. They also noted that the US dollar is gaining strength against major Asian and European currencies following Donald Trump’s taking over as the 47th president of the world’s largest economy. This could further contribute to weakening the rupee, which has remained stable against the greenback for over a year thanks to some stringent measures, including restricting outflows and a crackdown against smuggling.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Daily Chart 27 January 2025, Monday - By Darson Research

Jan 27 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index is currently trading around 114880 after making high of 115779 within strong rejection, and Failed to re-enter into Ascending channel on Hourly chart, mentioned in previous post.
  • Now it’s moving in a Symmetrical triangle on daily time frame in which Breakout trajectory (BT) is Between 114990 and 115870. The market is currently in a range-bound phase within CPR levels, Upper Band (UB) 114720, Middle Band (MB) 114300 and Lower Band (LB) 113660.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 23 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 23 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index has broken the ascending trendline, after a strong rejection around 115040 at Pivotal point, led to a sharp decline. Short-term bearish pressure is dominant after breaking CPR support around 114725, Indicating a potential short-term bearish move.
  • Currently, it is testing trendline support near CPR support around 113,640. Support Levels:(Trendline Support) around 113,060 (Lower Support) 111,600 (Pivotal Point) RSI at 31.68, approaching the oversold zone, suggesting a possible pull back.
Technical Outlook: KSE 100 Hourly Chart 16 January 2025, Thursday - By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • Index remains in a consolidation phase, and hovering around the CPR levels Upper Band (UB) around 114,680, Middle band (MB) around 113935 and Lower Band (LB) around 113190. A sustained move below these levels could trigger further downside.
  • Index is still facing rejection from the descending trendline resistance at 115,820, indicating strong selling pressure near this level, while 114300 is a decisive level for further upside or more downside.
  • Support levels at 113,935 (marked by yellow dotted lines) may act as key levels to watch for potential reversals. Volume: Declining volume indicates reduced participation, signaling caution.
Morning News: World Bank approves $20 billion loan – By Darson Research

Jan 16 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank board has approved a $20 billion loan package for Pakistan, but the framework document stated there will be challenges in its successful implementation due to political divisions and a worsening security situation in two provinces. The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the 2025-2035 period lists the political divide in Pakistan and the deteriorating security situation in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) as "critical" risks to the successful implementation of the $20 billion official lending package.
  • Saudi Development Fund (SDF) could invest over $100 million in Pakistan's mining infrastructure, said kingdom Mining Minister Bandar Alkhorayef on Wednesday. He also confirmed that Saudi mining company Manara Minerals was looking at investing in Pakistan's Reko Diq mine.
  • Pakistan’s model of growth — dominated by (public) consumption, high levels of debt, low productivity and poor capital accumulation — is increasingly unsustainable and requires measures to increase investment and productivity, while heavily investing in human capital accumulation to increase the country’s long-term growth potential, says the World Bank.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto Industry Showing Signs Of Recovery – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) released latest production and sales data for the month of Dec-24. The passenger car sales enhanced by 60% on YoY for Dec-24 (not including Jeeps, IMV’s, Pickups) as 7,864 units were sold as compared to 6,410 units in Dec-23. Further on MoM basis there was a decline seen of 1% as 7,864 cars were sold against 7,909 cars in the previous month. The incline on (YoY) sales was due to higher consumer demand amid declining interest rates.
  • Honda Atlas Cars posted stable figures on MoM for Dec-24 as the company sold 1,110 units as compared to 1,112 units in previous month. The company grew by an impressive 23% on YoY basis as 1,110 cars were sold in Dec-24 as compared to 901 in the SPLY. This growth was due to the increase in Civic/City category and BR-V and HR-V variants which both grew by 23%.
  • Indus Motors showed a decline of 25% on YoY basis as the company sold 1,655 units as compared to 2,194 units in the previous period of Dec-23. The company posted an impressive growth of 142% on YoY basis as 1,655 units were sold as compared to 684 in the SPLY. This was driven by the Corolla, Yaris Cross category which went ↑109% and by the Fortuner category ↑ 284%. This impressive growth was due to the reasons mentioned above plus Corolla Cross has had a positive response from the market which should provide support to the company's sales moving forward.
Morning News: WB pledges $40bn to Pakistan under 10-year framework – By Darson Research

Jan 15 2025


Darson Securities


  • The World Bank (WB) has pledged to provide $40 billion to Pakistan under the 10-year Country Partnership Framework (CPF), according to sources in the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Out of the total $40 billion, $20 billion would be provided through International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
  • Saudi Arabian mining company Manara Minerals could invest in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine in the next two quarters. Manara, a joint venture between state-controlled miner Ma’aden and the $925-billion Public Investment Fund (PIF), was set up as part of the kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil, including by buying minority stakes in assets overseas.
  • Pakistan plans to issue Yuan-denominated Panda Bonds by June 2025 to enhance its capital market integration with China, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb said.