Economy: Dec-2024: Marks highest ever monthly turnover – By JS Research
Jan 1 2025
JS Global Capital
- KSE-100 concludes the year with a closing above 115k points, taking annual returns to 84% for CY24, highest annual return recorded in the past 22-years. During Dec-2024, KSE-100 index delivered 13.6% MoM returns. KSE-100 also hit another milestone of achieving the highest ever monthly turnover of 1,260mn average shares traded. Foreigners remained net sellers for the 4th-consecutive month, with net outflow of US$32mn during Dec-2024, whereas Mutual Funds remained net buyers with net inflow of US$56mn.
- Re-rating of stocks continued across the board as the central announced another 200bp cut in interest rates while the govt hinted continuation of monetary easing cycle and sub 5% CPI inflation figures for Dec-2024. Beside continuation of rally in Pharmaceutical sector, Refinery sector (PRL up 69%, ATRL up 40%) also outperformed other sectors on the back of newsflow regarding potential finalization of upgradation agreement between OGRA and the sector early Jan2025, under the new Refinery Policy. Within JS Universe, MARI (+54%), PSO (+51%) and PABC (+48%) were the top-performing stocks during the month.
- Govt has approved abolition of additional tax of 15% for banks not meeting the ADR (Advance-Deposit ratio) requirement of 50%, instead the govt. has now raised income tax rate for banks’ earnings from 39% currently to 44%, which will be reduced to 43% in CY25 and 42% in CY26.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR12.3 – Above expectation - By Insight Research
Apr 21 2025
Insight Securities
- MEBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted unconsolidated PAT of PKR22.0bn (EPS: PKR12.3) vs. PAT of PKR24.9bn (EPS: PKR13.9) in SPLY. The result came slightly above our expectations, mainly due to healthy volumetric growth QoQ.
- Profit earned fell by ~10%/8% YoY/QoQ, mainly driven by lower yields on assets. To highlight, bank recorded deposit growth of ~11% QoQ in 1QCY25.
- Other income recorded QoQ decline of ~23%, amid 8% QoQ decline in fee income and absence of capital gains. On YoY basis, other income inched up by ~29% due to 10% increase in fee income and healthy jump in FX income.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Earnings Down 13% YoY; Dividend Maintained - By IIS Research
Apr 21 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Meezan Bank Limited has announced 1QCY25 result, where the bank has posted unconsolidated earnings of PKR 12.28/sh, down by 13% YoY and 8% on QoQ basis. The result is inline with our expectations. The bank has announced interim cash dividend of PKR 7/sh.
- Net spread income declined by 9% YoY and 15% QoQ, reflecting the impact of asset repricing concentrated in 3Q/4Q and the implementation of the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) for Islamic banks. Fee income rose 10% YoY but dropped 8% QoQ, while FX income surged 3x amid higher trade activity and volumes.
- Operating expenses down by 7% YoY and increase by 11% QoQ. Bank also recorded a provisioning of PKR 1.86 billion in 1QCY25 vs. Reversal of PKR0.35 bn in SPLY.
Meezan Bank (MEBL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs12.3, down 12% YoY and 8% QoQ - By Topline Research
Apr 21 2025
Topline Securities
- Meezan Bank (MEBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded earnings of Rs22bn (EPS of Rs12.3), which is down 12% YoY and down 8% QoQ. The earnings came in line with industry expectations.
- Alongside the result, the bank also announced first interim cash dividend of Rs7.0/share in 1Q2025, in-line with industry expectations.
- Net spread earned by MEBL fell by 8% YoY and 15% QoQ to Rs62bn in 1Q2025. This decline in spread is due to a decrease in interest rates, along with the imposition of the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) on the individual portfolio.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): 1QCY25 Result Review - By Taurus Research
Apr 21 2025
Taurus Securities
- 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 12.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 11%YoY – in line with expectations. Additionally, MEBL has also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 7.00/sh. Earnings were down mainly due to margin compression and higher provisions.
- Net Spread Earned (NSE): Down 8%YoY/15%QoQ on the back of substantial drop in yields on the asset side due to the repricing following the reduction in the SBP policy rate. However, the impact was offset to an extent by lower cost of funds.
- Other Income: Up 31%YoY. However, down 29% on a sequential basis owing to significant decrease in capital gains and other income. Moreover, Fee and Commissions income was also down 4% on a QoQ basis.
Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL): Result Review: GAL 3QFY25 EPS Rs21.1 - By Sherman Research
Apr 21 2025
Sherman Securities
- Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs1.2bn (EPS Rs21.1) up 2.7xQoQ higher than our expectations.
- The strong earnings performance was primarily supported by higher sales volumes of Dongfeng trucks, which rose to approximately 250 units (up 2x QoQ), as well as a notable increase in other income.
- Additionally, sales of JAC trucks increased to 380 units (up 23%QoQ). We estimate that only 200 units of the newly launched JAC T9 Hunter were also sold during the quarter.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Result Review: SAZEW 3QFY25 EPS Rs103, DPS Rs12 - By Sherman Research
Apr 21 2025
Sherman Securities
- Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) announced 3QFY25 results today wherein the company posted record net earnings of Rs6.2bn (EPS Rs103.1), 2.6xQoQ higher than our expectations.
- The earnings growth was driven primarily by robust gross margins and higher sales of Haval SUVs during the 3QFY25.
- SAZEW declared cash dividend of Rs12 per share for 2QFY25, taking the cumulative dividend payout for 9MFY25 to Rs32 per share.
Ghandhara Industries Limited (GHNI): Financial Snapshot - By Chase Research
Apr 21 2025
- We are initiating coverage on GHNI with a “BUY” stance and a DCF based Dec-25 target price of PKR 1,033, indicating a potential upside of 35%.
- Strong mining sector activity to drive demand growth for prime movers and trucks.
- Sustained implementation of the axle load regime to lend support to expansion of the national fleet.
Sazgar Engineering (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR103.06 – Above expectation - By Insight Research
Apr 21 2025
Insight Securities
- SAZEW has announced its 3QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR6.2bn (EPS: PKR103.06) vs. PAT of PKR3.0bn (EPS: PKR50.19) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher than estimated topline and gross margins.
- During 3QFY25, revenue witnessed an increase of ~83%/100% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR36.7bn, primarily due to higher volumetric sales.
- Gross margins increased by ~360bps/420bps YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~32.6% in 3QFY25, possibly attributable to higher sales volumes.
Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 18 2025
Taurus Securities
- We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
- During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
- Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25E Result Preview: Muted offtakes to weigh on profitability - By AKD Research
Apr 18 2025
AKD Securities
- AKD Fertilizer Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 16%YoY in 1QCY25E, primarily due to lower offtakes.
- Company-wise, FFC profitability is expected to rise by 46%YoY post-merger, while EFERT and FATIMA earnings are projected to decline by 65%/6%, respectively.
- FFC payout is expected to increase by 63%YoY, while EFERT dividend is projected to fall by 75%YoY
Economy: Mar-2025: Current Account posts historic surplus - By JS Research
Apr 18 2025
JS Global Capital
- Pakistan's current account balance posted a massive surplus of US$1.19bn in Mar-2025, bringing the 9MFY25 current account surplus to US$1.86bn. The improvement was driven by record-high remittances, with Mar-2025 inflows reaching US$4.1bn, a 37% YoY surge.
- Balance of Payments (BoP) remained negative this month as well due to loan repayments. Monthly BoP figure has turned negative for the fifth time FY25TD. However, BoP balance remains in positive territory for 9MFY25.
- We highlight that some planned foreign inflows have not materialized, likely to be unlocked post IMF disbursement. SBP governor recently revised the Jun-2025 reserves forecast to US$14bn, up from previous estimate of US$13bn. To note, SBP’s reserves have declined by ~US$1.1bn since Dec-24 while Import cover is down from 2.8months to 2.1months.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research
Apr 18 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed positive movement to close at 116,901, up 881 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 408mn shares compared to 482mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is currently trading above the 30-DMA and the 50-DMA that will restrict downside at 115,828 and 114,617 levels, respectively. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 117,210-118,050 levels where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,074 and 117,472 levels, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research
Apr 17 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Mar-25: Power generation picks up as winter recedes - By JS Research
Apr 16 2025
JS Global Capital
- As per latest data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Power generation during Mar-2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, posting a 5% YoY increase. Cumulatively, power generation during 9MFY25 posted a negative growth of 2% YoY, clocking-in at ~90,148GWh.
- Average cost of generation for Mar-2025 stood at Rs9.2/kWh, down 2% YoY. Generation costs, however, saw a MoM spike, with the average cost of generation rising 12%.
- The sequential increase in generation cost is primarily due to reduced share of hydel in the power mix and a shift to the more expensive fuel sources, coal and LNG. Hydel generation stood at 15% in the energy mix compared to avg of 30% of the mix in the last 12 months
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research
Apr 16 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research
Apr 15 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: FCCL & KOHC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research
Apr 14 2025
JS Global Capital
- We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) and Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC).
- We expect FCCL and KOHC to post earnings of Rs1.02/share and Rs12.89/share, reflecting growth of 41% and 23% YoY, respectively. This improvement is primarily driven by higher gross margins — up 3.3ppt YoY for FCCL and 8.5ppts for KOHC — supported by higher retention prices and lower coal costs during 3QFY25 compared to 3QFY24.
- The proposed increase in limestone royalty rates in KPK, aligning them with those in Punjab, is expected to weigh negatively on both companies. However, reduction in power tariffs may partially offset this impact, given both companies' significant reliance on the national grid.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 expected to test support at the 50-DMA - By JS Research
Apr 14 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index remained under pressure throughout the session as it closed at 114,853 level, down 1,336 points DoD. Volumes stood at 459mn shares compared to 638mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support at the 50-DMA currently at 114,300; a fall below will cause the downtrend to resume. However, any upside will face resistance at 115,473 (30-DMA) where a break above that targeting the 115,930-116,650 range. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay ‘long’ above the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 114,350 and 115,647 levels, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research
Apr 11 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 Index closed down 1.2% at 114,853, snapping Thursday's rally. The index hit a session low of 114,640 points, marking intraday decline of 1.3%. The market slid amid global economic uncertainty, declining cement sales, rupee instability, and falling crude oil prices, all compounded by concerns over the US-China trade war. Despite the broader market dip, the pharma sector outperformed, closing entirely in the green. Looking ahead, investor focus remains on the trajectory of the IMF program, upcoming budget policies, and int’l commodity price trends, which will shape market sentiment.
SYS Limited (SYS): Eyes strong growth in the MENA region - By JS Research
Apr 11 2025
JS Global Capital
- SYS Limited (SYS) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss CY24 financial performance and outlook. On a consolidated basis, the company reported a 1.15x decline in EPS to Rs25.55, largely attributable to exchange losses. SYS also announced a stock split in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
- SYS reported 26% YoY growth in revenue during CY24 where revenue contribution from MENA region (59% share in the revenue pie) jumped by 35% YoY led by timely expansions to exploit the growth opportunity in the region, mainly Saudi Arabia.
- Strengthening of workforce, diversification of labour with locations in MENA through Egypt and scaling its ‘Capability Centers of Excellence’ (COEs), should enable the company to achieve 26% YoY growth in revenues (CY25E) and gradually improve gross margins by up to 5% in the next few years, as per the management guidelines.