Morning News: FBR surpasses IMF-set tax-to-GDP target for Dec 2024 – By Vector Research

Jan 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio has surpassed the target agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the end of December 2024, as the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) collected Rs5,624 billion during the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year. Under the IMF’s targets, the tax-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 10.6 percent of GDP for the entire fiscal year 2024-25. However, by December 31, 2024, the ratio had already touched 10.8 percent. Official data shared with The News on Wednesday indicated that the tax-to-GDP ratio remained below target at 9.5 percent during the first quarter (July-September), with GDP growth estimated at 0.92 percent.
  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in December 2024, a reading below that of November 2024 when it stood at 4.9%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Wednesday. On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 0.1% in December 2024 as compared to 0.5% in the previous month and an increase of 0.8% in December 2023.
  • The country’s exports increased by 10.52 percent during the first half (July-December) of current fiscal year 2024-25 and stood at $16.561 billion compared to $14.985 billion during the same period of last fiscal year (2023-24). Trade deficit widened by 46.61 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis in December 2024 and 34.80 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, revealed the trade data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The country’s imports increased by 6.11 per cent and stood at $27.733 billion during the first half of the current fiscal year 2024-25 compared to $26.137 billion during the same period of last fiscal year.

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Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: Pak-IMF technical-level talks next week - By Vector Research

Apr 14 2025


Vector Securities


  • The technical-level talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the federal budget for the fiscal year 2025-26 are expected to begin next week, according to sources.
  • The government is considering cutting down the corporate tax rate and providing tax reliefs on other heads in the upcoming budget for the financial year 2025-26. It wants to do this by using the fiscal space made available in the wake of a reduction in international oil prices and through the significant drop of 10-percentage points in the key interest rate by the central bank since June-2024 to 12% at present.
  • Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday said that the upcoming federal budget will bring relief for salaried individuals and further reductions in electricity costs. The finance minister announced that a detailed relief plan for the salaried class has been finalised and will be shared with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By Vector Research

Apr 11 2025


Vector Securities


  • A technical team of the IMF will be visiting Pakistan from next week for holding parleys with the FBR high-ups to discuss taxation proposals for the upcoming budget 2025-26.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday blocked a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters due to a possible reaction from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 
  • The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in coordination with the Ministry of Climate Change and Envi-ronmental Coordination (MoCC&EC) and the Public-Private Partnership Authority (P3A), has identified five preliminary bankable projects valued at over USD 1 billion.
Morning News: Trillions of dollars in minerals can free Pakistan from IMF dependence: PM Shehbaz - By Vector Research

Apr 9 2025


Vector Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited both local and foreign investors to capitalise on Pakistan's vast mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Speaking at the two-day Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025 (PMIF25) in Islamabad on Tuesday, the prime minister expressed optimism that utilising these resources would enable Pakistan to reduce its dependency on global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold is set to raise $3 billion in international financing for the multi-billion-dollar Reko Diq Copper & Gold Project in Balochistan. Barrick’s President and CEO Mark Bristow told Dawn on Tuesday that a financing pact with the World Bank and its commercial arm International Finance Corporation (IFC) was expected to be signed by mid-year and final financing packages by third quarter this year for $650 million. “We expect to drawdown about $500m by 4th quarter,” he said.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday welcomed a $2 billion investment from global shipping giant AP Moller – Maersk, hailing it as a significant boost to Pakistan’s maritime sector. During a meeting with Robert Maersk, chairman of the board of directors at AP Moller – Maersk, he directed authorities to fast-track the conversion of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) signed with the company last year into formal agreements.
Morning News: Pakistan bondssink over 13 cents on Trump tariff pressure - By Vector Research

Apr 8 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan bonds fell more than 13 cents in the frontier market on Monday, as US President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing away from sweeping tariffs. It was the single biggest decline for Pakistan bonds across many maturities since Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine shook markets in early 2022.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Pervaiz Malik has announced that the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) would commence today (Tuesday) for two days, April 8–9, to highlight the country’s vast mineral potential. At the forum, the government would showcase Pakistan’s mineral-rich landscape, spanning approximately 600,000 square kilometers.
  • As the government considers its options, the private sector views the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs as a strategic manoeuvre to compel Islamabad to engage in discussions for better access to the Pakistani market. The tariffs have also impacted Pakistan’s three main competitors in the US market—India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. However, New Delhi and Hanoi have already prepared in advance, while Pakistan’s commerce ministry remains in the early stages of discussions.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: Key infrastructure projects; Azerbaijan keen to invest $2bn, Senate panel told - By Vector Research

Mar 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Senate Standing Committee on Planning, Development and Special Initiatives was informed that Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to invest $2 billion in Pakistan, potentially impacting key infrastructure projects. 
  • In a step to fulfill another condition set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has decided to operationalise the newly established Tax Policy Office by appointing a Director General and five Directors. The Ministry of Finance has invited applications from eligible candidates for these positions.
  • The rupee weakened slightly on Monday as the uncertainty over the finalisation of the staff-level agreement (SLA) with the International Monetary Fund for the second $1 billion tranche of the $7 billion bailout weighed on the local currency.
Morning News: Quarterly GDP growth figures to be released next week - By Vector Research

Mar 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In a bid to meet an IMF condition, the government is all set to release quarterly GDP growth rate figures for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year next week amid declining trends in industrial sector. The real GDP growth will now mainly rely on the services sector and to some extent on the neglected agriculture sector.
  • Pakistan exported a record 933,000 tonnes of furnace oil in the first eight months of the current financial year, as the country’s power sector continues to phase out its use due to high costs and environmental concerns. According to oil sector data, fuel oil exports, however, plummeted to 39,000 tonnes in February, compared to 190,000 tonnes in January.Industry sources attributed the lower exports to an accumulation of furnace oil in local refineries, as buyers prefer to purchase in bulk.