Oil Marketing Companies: Volumetric growth moderates – By Foundation Research

Jan 3 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 3% YoY (↓19% MoM) to 1.3mn tons in Dec’24 amid pick up in economic activity, low inflation and reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Product-wise breakdown reveals HSD sales jumped 12% YoY during Dec’24 whereas MS/FO experienced a decline of 1/48% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL volumes plummeted 4/14% YoY while SHEL sales grew 5% YoY in Dec’24. Total sales clocked-in at 8.0mn tons (↑4% YoY) during 1HFY25.
  • White oil sales remained subdued: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) increased 3% YoY in Dec’24. Sequentially, volumes went down 19% during the month given winter effect. Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 566/573K tons, ↓/↑ 1/12% YoY (↓15/27% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD held steady at ~Rs253/258/ltr during the month. This takes 1HFY25 sales volume of MS/HSD to 3.8/3.5mn tons, reflecting growth of 5/10% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales fell to 41K tons during Dec’24, down 48% YoY on account of lower demand from power producers amid higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.  

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Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
Pakistan Automobile: Strong auto sales momentum carried into Mar’25 - By Foundation Research

Apr 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In Mar’25, automobile sales grew 18% YoY, however, on a sequential basis volume declined 8% MoM to 11k units due to Ramadan effect. During 9MFY25, sales expanded by a mammoth 46% YoY to over 100k units. This surge can be attributed to declining interest rates, attractive auto financing schemes and promotional offers by both banks and auto assemblers. Player-wise breakdown portrays a notable volumetric surge of 84/87% YoY in INDU/SAZEW, respectively while HCAR recorded a decline of 35% YoY in Mar’25. Total automobile sales clocked in at 13k units (↓ 8/7% YoY/MoM) in Mar’25 whereas 9MFY25 sales were 127,463 units (↑20% YoY).
  • Positive sales growth remains prolific: The automobile sector witnessed a surge in sales during Mar’25 as Jeeps/Vans&LCVs/800/1300cc sales improved by 85/42/6/17% YoY while 1000c sales dropped by a sizeable 71% YoY. During 9MFY25, automobile sales surged 46% YoY to 100,868 units led by growth in INDU, HCAR, Pak Suzuki & SAZEW at 58%, 29%, 41% and 153% YoY, respectively. The healthy volumetric growth is on the back of (1) declining interest rates, (2) attractive auto financing schemes by banks & auto assemblers amid increasing market competition, (3) stable exchange rate and HRC prices, and (4) improving macroeconomic environment
  • INDU: INDU recorded volumes of 3,131 units, up 84% YoY (↑20% MoM) during Mar’25. The surge in sales is driven by a rise in sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaristo 2,378 units, a jump of 54% YoY (↑31% MoM), which we believe is owed to higher Yaris sales. Additionally, Fortuner+Hilux sales climbed 4.8x YoY (↓5% MoM) to 753 units with Hilux being the major contributor. During 9MFY25, sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris/Fortuner+Hilux swelled 49/90% YoY to 15,980/5,638 units respectively.
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Apr 9 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL PA) held its analyst briefing to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and outlook.
  • Mughal Iron & Steels Industries Ltd’s(MUGHAL PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 210Mn (EPS PKR 0.63, down 73% YoY) in 2QFY25 against PKR 773Mn (EPS PKR 2.30) in 2QFY24. This takes 1HFY25 profitability to PKR 217Mn (EPS PKR 0.65, down 83% YoY) as compared to profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS 3.84) in 1HFY24.
  • Currently, the company is operating at maximum operational capacity; capacity utilization of furnace plant for melting is 80% and 65-67% for re-rolling. Moreover, the production mix for girders and rebars is 40-45% and 50-55%, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Sales dropped MoM in Mar’25 due to Ramadan, prices in recovery phase - By Foundation Research

Apr 8 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan cement industry dispatches notched down by 9.4% YoY in Mar’25 to 3.57Mn tons (9MFY25: down 1.5% YoY to 33.99Mn tons). Domestic sales plummeted 11.3% YoY to 2.96Mn tons (9MFY25: -6.6% YoY), while exports exhibited an increase of 0.6% YoY to 0.61Mn tons in Mar’25 (9MFY25: +28.1% YoY).
  • Local cement sales remained lackluster during Mar’25 MoM due to Ramadan effect and Eid-ul-fitr holidays. Exports shot up by 28.1% YoY in 9MFY25 as cement players continue to explore new export destinations given the prevailing weak local demand.
  • On a YoY basis, domestic cement sales declined 11.3% during Mar’25 YoY on the back of (1) rise in royalty rates, (2) cement dealers strike pertaining to WHT and implementation of Point of Sale (POS) in Jul’24, (3) hike in cement prices (FED increased to PKR 4/kg in FY25 Budget), (4) elevated construction costs, and (5) high base effect given that this year Ramadan fell during the month of Mar’25 (ie. 10 days earlier).
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Revving up for the new era - By Foundation Research

Apr 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In a rapidly evolving automotive landscape, SAZEW’s entry into Pakistan’s 4-wheeler market capitalizing on the surging demand for SUVs, marked a pivotal moment. At the heart of this transformation stood the company’s resolve at redefining the industry with its sustainable forward-thinking approach - leveraging Greenfield incentives and expanding into the electric and hybrid segments. With the expected resurgence in the Auto sector, our positive view is underpinned by the company’s (1) brand equity of “HAVAL” in the 4-wheeler market, (2) robust gross margins to upkeep bottom-line, (3) efforts to penetrate further into the EV and HEV segment solidifying its green foot prints and (4) growth in iconic “SAZGAR” 3-wheelers along with broad products offerings - diversifying operational risks. In the light of the above, we initiate coverage on SAZEW with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 1,504/sh, implying a 38% upside.
  • HAVAL's success story: HAVAL made its entry into the Pakistani market at a very opportune time. Where the SUV segment was slowly growing post the launch of KIA Sportage, MG-HS and Hyundai Tucson to name a few, HAVAL made a solid entry with the launch of Pakistan’s first locally assembled HEV. Consequently, the company has sold over 14k units in just 30 months. In 8MFY25, sales have exceeded 7k units and given the momentum, we opine reaching 12k mark in FY25 would not be a challenging feat. Plus, the collaboration with HIT to convert HAVAL H6 into a security vehicle and the recent MOU signed with Armed forces suggest robust volumetric growth going forward.
  • Elevated margins to stabilize but still remain higher than peers: SAZEW benefits greatly from its Greenfield status and AIDEP (2021-26) policy providing CD and ST concessions, which have resulted in stellar ~29% gross margins over the past 4 quarters compared to only ~10% when 3-wheelers was its main operating segment. Upwelling margins are expected to remain intact till FY26 when concessions end, whereby, we see them settling at ~16.5% in the longer term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Sluggish trend continues - By Foundation Research

Mar 17 2025


Foundation Securities


  • With the Rabi season ending and no major sowing being done, fertilizer offtake continues its sluggish trend. In Feb’25, Urea sales recorded a decline of 36/22% YoY/MoM to 347KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FATIMA urea offtake improved 42/24% YoY/MoM to 69KT in Feb’25, whereas FFC/EFERT recorded a decline of 35/52% YoY to 156/94KT, respectively. Industry DAP offtake dwindled 65/35% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to only 40KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined 83/86% YoY to 25/3KT, respectively, whereas FATIMA DAP offtake inclined 22/64% YoY/MoM to 4KT.
  • Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Feb’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined by 36/22% YoY/MoM in Feb’25, reaching 347KT. DAP offtake dropped 65/35% YoY/MoM to 40KT. NP offtake lessened/increased 46/19% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to 44KT, while CAN offtake deteriorated 3/12% YoY/MoM to 66KT. Industry urea inventory levels have stayed on the lower end due to no imports and lower production reaching 536KT in Feb’25. DAP inventory has also eased off to 160KT due to no imports in Feb’25. Companywise urea inventory was recorded at 67/280/168/21KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Feb’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 66/57KT.
  • FFC/EFERT offtake dropped YoY: FFC/EFERT urea offtake dwindled 35/52% YoY, respectively, to reach 156/94KT in Feb’25. We attribute this decline solely to the seasonality factor. Where the whole industry has undergone decline in offtake, FATIMA experienced a surge in Urea dispatches to the tune of 42% YoY to 69KT. This increase in sales is attributable to better gas availability in recent months.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Mar 13 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU PA) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and future outlook.
  • INDU posted net sales of PKR 84.8Bn (↑67% YoY) in 1HFY25, which were driven by surge in volumes. INDU sold 12,541 units (↑82% YoY) in 1HFY25, with contribution from Corolla+Yaris+Cross & Fortuner+Hilux of 9,633 & 2,908 units respectively, up 83% & 52% YoY.
  • The company’s gross margin improved from 9.3% to 13.8% in 1HFY25 given lower input cost aided by favorable exchange rate, cost optimization, and localization efforts. Additionally, investment in green energy has also been fruitful in reducing cost as Solar Energy contributes ~25% in the power mix.
Pakistan Automobile: Auto Sales remained upbeat in Feb’25 - By Foundation Research

Mar 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In Feb’25, automobile (PC&LCVs) sales grew 24% YoY, however, on a sequential basis volumes declined 27% MoM to 12k units as January effect dissipated. During 8MFY25, sales expanded by a significant 50% YoY to 89.8k units. This surge is accredited to declining interest rates, attractive auto financing schemes and promotional offers by both banks and companies. Player-wise breakdown portrays a notable volumetric surge of 28/35/113% YoY in INDU/HCAR/SAZEW respectively in Feb’25. Total automobile sales clocked in at 14,104 units (↑/↓ 5/30% YoY/MoM) in Feb’25 while 8MFY25 sales touched 114k units (↑24% YoY).
  • Positive sales growth momentum continues: The automobile sector witnessed a surge in sales during Feb’25 as 800/1000/1300cc sales improved modestly by 6/7/19% YoY. During 8MFY25, automobile sales increased 50% YoY to 89,770 units led by growth in INDU, HCAR, Pak Suzuki & SAZEW at 54%, 47%, 44% and 166% YoY respectively. The healthy volumetric growth is on the back of (1) monetary easing, (2) attractive auto financing schemes by banks amid increasing market competition, (3) stable exchange rates and HRC prices, and (4) improving macroeconomic environment.
  • INDU recorded volumes of 2,611 units, up 28% YoY (↓22% MoM) during Feb’25. The surge in sales is driven by a rise in sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris to 1,820 units, a marginal ↑3% YoY (↓15% MoM), with major portion coming from Yaris sales in our view. Additionally, despite tough competition from Ghandhara Automobiles (GAL) by their successful launch of JAC T9 Hunter (LCV), a direct competitor of Hilux, Fortuner+Hilux sales climbed 2.9x YoY (↓33% MoM) to 791 units. During 8MFY25, sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris/Fortuner+Hilux expanded 48/74% YoY to 13,602/4,885 units respectively.
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate left unchanged at 12.0% - By Foundation Research

Mar 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • SBP surprised markets on Monday by keeping the policy rate steady at 12.0%, defying expectations of a 50-100 basis point cut. Although February's inflation rate came in lower than expected, the SBP cited concerns over volatile food prices, persistent core inflation, and renewed external account pressures as reasons for maintaining the rate. The central bank believes real interest rate remains sufficiently high to support ongoing macroeconomic stability. We believe that the pause was also warranted by a desire to appease the visiting IMF mission which is undertaking the 1st review of the USD 7.0Bn facility, and concerns that the full impact of the 1,000bps cut in policy rate over the last 6 reviews would manifest itself in the form of higher growth and imports over the next 6-12 months and disbalance the external account.
  • February's CPI inflation dropped to 1.5% YoY, its lowest level since Sept’15, primarily due to a decrease in food prices resulting from ample agricultural supplies. However, core inflation in rural areas remained high, with double-digit growth indicating persistent underlying price pressures. Looking ahead, SBP expects headline inflation to decline further before gradually rising and stabilizing within the 5-7% target range.
  • Despite the ongoing decline in manufacturing output, the SBP remains optimistic about economic growth, pointing to encouraging high-frequency indicators and reduced risks to Rabi crops. The SBP expects economic activity to pick up pace during the 1HCY25, driven by easing financial conditions and the delayed impact of previous policy rate cuts. The GDP growth forecast for FY25 remains unchanged at 2.5-3.5%. This outlook follows a modest 0.9% YoY economic expansion in 1QFY25.
Pakistan Economy: Another 100bps cut expected - By Foundation Research

Mar 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The Central Bank has been in hot pursuit of the nose-diving inflation over the last nine months trying to catch up with the curve and narrow the real interest rate gap which is still 10/5/3% on current, 1-yr forward and core measures, respectively. Moreover, inflation has averaged 5.9% in 8MFY25 and avg. inflation during FY25 is expected to clock-in at only 5.4% which is near the lower end of the 5-7% inflation target range of the SBP.
  • Viewed together with being in an IMF program, a surplus in the external account during 7MFY25, stable exchange rate and subdued growth outlook, we believe the Central Bank is poised to deliver another cut of 100bps in the policy rate taking it to 11.0% at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 10th Mar’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight and data dependent (as required by IMF).