Autos: Resilient YoY recovery in Dec-2024 volumes – By JS Research

Jan 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We expect the recovery in auto sales for the 3-major auto companies to continue in Dec-2024, clocking in at around ~8k units, reflecting a 50% YoY increase. On a MoM basis, however, auto sales are projected to decline by 8%, primarily due to the typical year-end slowdown as customers defer purchases, to opt for new year’s models.
  • Cumulatively, auto sales for the three major companies are projected to reach 49.6k units, reflecting a 46% YoY increase during 1HFY25. This growth is primarily attributed to a stable exchange rate, uninterrupted operations with fewer plant shutdowns, and attractive promotional deals at lower rates offered by both manufacturers and banks.
  • EV policy is expected to be finalized soon, focusing on EV adoption by encouraging domestic production through concessionary duties & taxes, green financing for companies, and developing EV charging infrastructure across the country.

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Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index rose 342 points at day-end to close at 130,686, after hitting an intraday all-time high of 131,325. The bullish momentum, driven by strong institutional buying and optimism over earnings, particularly in the energy sector (OGDC, MARI, PPL), fueled early gains. Although profit-taking pared initial advances, the index stayed in the green. With positive macroeconomic indicators and sustained investor confidence, the market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory in the near term, though intermittent corrections remain likely.
Oil Marketing Companies: 7% YoY rise in FY25 sales - By JS Research

Jul 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • OMC sales volume clocked in at 1.6mn tons, up 8%/2% on a YoY/MoM basis during Jun-2025. On a product-wise basis, Motor Spirit (MS) volume rose 5% YoY, Hi-Speed Diesel (HSD) volume increased 9% YoY, whereas Furnace Oil (FO) sales went up 22% YoY during the period. Cumulatively, OMC sales volumes recorded a 7% YoY growth during FY25.
  • The overall market share trend indicates that players have broadly remained resilient. PSO, however, faced challenges in maintaining market share during FY25 where avg market share dropped to 44%, below the FY24 market share of 49%.
  • A presidential order was passed in 4QFY25 which removes a cap of Rs70/liter, allowing the govt to raise PDL as needed. Our calculations suggest a subsequent Rs7-8/litre increase in PDL on HSD/ MS in May-2025, enabled the govt to bring collection close to its FY25 target of Rs12.8bn
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Pullback inside the band is likely - By JS Research

Jul 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed another positive session, closing at 130,344, up 2,145 points DoD. Trading volumes stood at 1,026mn shares, slightly lower than the 1,033mn shares traded previously. If the gain continues, the index may target 132,134, followed by 133,412. However, any downside is likely to find support in the 129,120-129,840 range; a break below this range could trigger a corrective trend. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, supporting a positive outlook. That said, a short-term pullback within the band cannot be ruled out. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', with a defined risk level below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,125 and 131,055, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: Jun-2025 CPI of 3.2% takes FY25 average to 4.5% - By JS Research

Jul 2 2025


JS Global Capital


  • CPI for Jun-2025 clocked in at 3.2%. This takes FY25 average to 4.5%, down from FY24 average of 23.4%. Urban core inflation eased to 6.9% YoY in Jun-2025, while rural core inflation declined to 8.6% YoY.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11% in the last MPC meeting, citing rising imports and tensions in the Middle East as key risks adding uncertainty to the commodity outlook and inflation.
  • Despite the 11ppt decline in the policy rate over the past 12-months, the real interest rate (RIR) still hovers around ~7.8ppt, advocating the case for further rate cut during FY26.