Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: PSO & APL—2QFY25E Result Previews – By AKD Research

Jan 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • PSO – PAT to clock in at PkR8.4bn (EPS: PkR17.9) in 2QFY25E: PSO is projected to report a quarterly PAT of PkR8.4bn (EPS: PkR17.9), reflecting a healthy increase from LAT of PkR14.1bn (LPS: PkR30.1) in SPLY. The increase is attributed to: i) absence of inventory losses compared to SPLY ii) growth in volumetric offtakes, iii) healthy delayed-payment income on account of past-due gas receivables from SNGPL and, iv) reduction in finance costs by 33%YoY due to declining short-term borrowings (down PkR48bn during CYTD, ↓11%) and lower lending rates for both FX and domestic borrowings. In terms of offtakes, PSO delivered total volumes of 2.0mn tons during 2QFY25 (up 7%YoY), where-in MS/HSD volumes rose by 7%YoY each, while RFO offtakes stood down by 48%YoY during the quarter. For the RLNG segment, PSO handled 25 cargoes during 2QFY25 (compared to 25 cargoes in SPLY), where-in average DES price stood at US$9.12/mmbtu vs. US$10.4/mmbtu during 2QFY24, resulting in topline from the RLNG segment to clock in at PkR222bn (down 5%YoY). We have a ‘BUY’ rating on the stock, with a Dec’25 TP of PkR729/sh, representing an upside potential of 86% from last close.
  • APL – PAT to clock in at PkR2.4bn (EPS: PkR19.5) in 2QFY25E: Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) is expected to post an uneventful 2QFY25E financial result with a PAT of PkR2.4bn (EPS: PkR19.5), down by 4%YoY. The said decline is attributable to: i) lower volumetric offtakes during the quarter and ii) lower finance income to clock in at PkR1.9bn for the period (down 22%YoY), amidst dropping yields on fixed-income investments during the quarter. Consequently, we expect APL’s topline to amount to PkR117bn, down 14%YoY, with offtakes standing at 365k tons (down 2%YoY) during the period. However, relative stability in fuel prices also led to non-incurrence of inventory losses as opposed to last year, resulting in gross margins to amount to 3.5% during the period (vs. 2.3% in SPLY). We have a ‘BUY’ rating on the stock, with a Dec’25 TP of PkR825/sh, representing total upside potential of 61% from last close.

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Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Economy: Tariff rationalization to bring in competitiveness - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Govt. has issued SROs pertaining to Additional Customs Duty (ACD) and Regulatory Duties (RDs), in line with National Tariff Policy 2025–30.
  • ACD has been revised to 0%, 2%, 4%, and 6% (previously 2%, 4%, 6%, and 7%), while RD has been removed on multiple PCT codes, with the maximum RD rate reduced from 90% to 50%.
  • Sector-wise, margins for auto assemblers are likely to normalize from recent highs, while chemical, steel, and textile spinning/weaving sectors would face margin pressures.
Pakistan Cement: Cement demand to rise on PSDP push and construction revival in FY26 - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches reached 46.22mn tons in FY25, an increase of 2%YoY, driven by higher export volumes, while domestic sales fell to eight-year low.
  • Industry-wide capacity utilization increased to 54.8% during FY25 (up 0.2ppt YoY).
  • We expect domestic offtakes to grow by 6%YoY in FY26, amid easing interest rates, pick-up in government spending, and sustained demand from the real estate sector.
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC offtakes conclude FY25 on strong footing - By AKD Research

Jul 2 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC volumetric sales for FY25 reached 16.3mn tons, higher by 7%YoY. Specifically, MS/HSD offtakes stood at 7.6mn/6.9mn tons for the full year, up 6%/10%YoY.
  • We have a ‘BUY’ call for PSO and APL with Dec’25 TP of PkR729/850 per share, with DY of 5.1%/6.1% for FY26E
  • Our reasons for liking include anticipated revision in OMC margins during FY26 alongside volumetric recovery, while resolution of circular debt is to favorably impact the state-owned OMC i.e. PSO.
Gul Ahmed Textiles Mills Ltd. (GATM): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Gul Ahmed Textiles Mills Ltd. (GATM) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company:
  • To recall, company posted sales of PkR119.1bn in 9MFY25 (up by 13.3%YoY) due to higher export sales, while earnings declined to PkR2.1bn (down 7.5%YoY), due to cost pressures.
  • Gross margins contracted to 10.9% during the period compared to 11.5% in 9MFY24. The said decline is mainly due to higher energy costs.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook
  • The company reported net sales of PkR132.3bn during 9MFY25, down 7%YoY, primarily due to a combination of lower production of 29.3mn boe (down 2%YoY) and softening wellhead prices during the period.
  • Net profit declined by 10%YoY to PkR46.3bn (EPS: PkR38.6), with the contraction attributed to the impact of additional royalty applied to Mari D&P lease during the year.
Economy: KSE-100 outperforms all asset classes for second consecutive year - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Aggressive monetary easing, supported by tight fiscal policy and a strong external account, contributed to a 60.1% return for the KSE-100 in FY25, as it emerged as the bestperforming asset class for the second consecutive year.
  • Banks contributed the most to KSE-100 with 15,160 points during FY25, followed by Fertilizer with 8,292 points, E&Ps with 6,845 points, and Cement with 5,596 points.
  • Mutual Funds turned net buyers in FY25 after three consecutive years of selling, absorbed most of the selling by Foreigners.
Al-Ghazi Tractors Ltd. (AGTL): CY24 and 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jun 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Al-Ghazi Tractors Ltd. (AGTL) held its analyst briefing today to discuss CY24/1QCY25 results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key highlights:
  • Company posted earnings of PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR61.1) in CY24, compared to PkR2.6bn (EPS: PkR45.1) in CY23. The said increase was primarily attributable to improved gross margins to 24% during the period compared to 19% during SPLY.
  • Moreover, operating expenses saw a 50%YoY increase in CY24 following the company's transition from its old ERP system to SAP S/4HANA, as well due to free deliveries for tractors sold in Punjab’s Green Tractor Scheme.
Economy: Inflation to moderate further in FY26 - By AKD Research

Jun 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Continued tight monetary and fiscal policies amid stable currency are expected to moderate inflation further in FY26.
  • We expect inflation to remain at 4.4% in FY26, broadly in line with estimation for FY25, driven by a modest increase in the heavily weighted Food and Housing indices amid subdued Int’l commodity prices.
  • Rupee is expected to remain stable due to improved external account position driven by elevated remittances and rising exports aided by structural reforms.