Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey, Majority participants expect 100bps cut – By Topline Research

Jan 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Jan 27, 2025.
  • In a poll conducted by Topline Securities (graph on the next slide), 61% of the participants expect that the central bank will announce a rate cut of 100bps.
  • Amongst the remaining, 7% expect a rate cut of 50bps, 7% expect a rate cut of 150bps, 17% expect a rate cut of 200bps, 2% expect a rate cut of 250bps, while 6% expect no change in the interest rate.

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Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Pakistan Bank: Banks earnings to fall 19% YoY and 12% QoQ in 1Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post a 12% QoQ decline in earnings in 1Q2025, amid a fall in Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to decrease by 11% QoQ to Rs279bn due to (1) a decline in the average policy rate from 15.2% in 4Q2024 to 12.3% in 1Q2025, and (2) 10% QoQ decline in advances growth.
  • As per SBP’s weekly publication, advances of the banking sector declined by 10% QoQ from Rs15.6trn as of Dec 27, 2024, to Rs13.9trn as of Feb 28, 2025
Economy: Falling Commodity Prices amidst tariff war Impact on Pakistan Economy and Stock Market - By Topline Research

Apr 8 2025


Topline Securities


  • In the aftermath of tariff war, initiated by US and retaliated by other nations, the Bloomberg commodity index has declined 8% in last 3 sessions. Within this, crude oil prices (brent) and Richards Bay Coal Future (April) are down by 14.3% to US$64.2/bbl and 6.1% to US$88.5/ton.
  • The falling commodity prices shall impact on Pakistan’s macros including external accounts mainly current account, inflation, and fiscal accounts amongst others. We have run sensitivity analysis of decline in oil prices by US$10/barrel, this brings down oil related import bill (including RLNG) to the extent of US$2-2.1bn. In addition to oil, Pakistan can also save US$250- 300mn annually from coal, LPG and Palm oil, if lower levels of prices persists. Oil prices also affects inflation directly and with US$10/barrel decline in oil, the inflation will be directly impacted by 20bps, assuming benefit passed on to the consumers. Details are below;
  • Pakistan Imports 20mn tons of crude and refined oil annually: During FY24, Pakistan imported 9mn tons of crude and 10.3mn tons of refined oil (HSD, Petrol etc.), translating into total ~145mn barrels of equivalent oil. Every US$1/barrel decline in oil prices will reduce import bill by US$145-150mn and every US$10 per barrel will bring savings of US$1.5bn on petroleum oil front.
Insurance: Listed Non-Life Insurance profits up 35% in 2024 to Rs17.4bn - By Topline Research

Apr 7 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's listed Non-Life (General) Insurance companies reported profits of Rs17.4bn in 2024 which is up by 35% YoY compared to 2023 and better than last 5-year CAGR of 19%.
  • Higher profits are led by better underwriting results, and higher Investment Income.
  • In 2024 Net Premiums increased by 25% YoY to reach Rs68.6bn compared to 2023. Net premiums have increased due to growth in all major segments including Fire & Property, Motor, Marine.
Fertilizer: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308K tons, down 54% YoY - By Topline Research

Apr 4 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024.
  • Similarly, Urea sales is expected to decline by 11% MoM. This will take 1Q2025 offtake to 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY compared to 1.8mn tons in 1Q2024.
  • This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 837k tons in Mar-2025, up from 536k tons in Feb-2025.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Pharmaceuticals: Pakistan Listed Pharma Sector Analysis 2024 Deregulation improved sales and margins - By Topline Research

Mar 27 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan listed pharmaceuticals sector’s earnings were up 3.1x to Rs24.8bn in calendar year 2024. This jump in profitability is primarily attributed to higher net sales and improved gross margins.
  • Net sales increased by 15% YoY to Rs318bn in 2024, primarily driven by a increase in drug prices.
  • To recall, in Feb-2024 the government approved the deregulation of non-essential drug prices, which allowed companies to increase prices without any cap as it was under previous drug policy to increase the prices of all other non-essential drugs by up to the full increase in CPI (with a cap of 10%). While prices of essential drugs are still capped with formula of up to 70% of the increase in CPI (with cap of 7%).
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases