Pakistan Auto: Autos Result Preview: Profitability on the rise - By AKD Research
Jan 21 2025
AKD Securities
- INDU 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3) in 2QFY25E compared to PkR1.7bn (EPS: PkR22.2), a 2.7xYoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 2.4xYoY to 6,383 units compared to 2,687 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown in SPLY. Topline is anticipated to rise by 2.5xYoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales. Moreover, gross margins are expected to improve to 14.8% amid decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY. With regards to opex, higher volumes along with elevated advertisement expenses associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 27%YoY increase in operating expenses. Overall, 1HFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR125.1/sh, up 98%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR36.0/sh, bringing the dividend for the first half to PkR75.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
- HCAR – 3QMY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.49): Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. (HCAR)’s board is scheduled to announce their 3QMY25E earnings on Jan 22nd 2025, where we expect earnings to clock in at PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.5) vs. PkR143mn (EPS: PkR1.0) in SPLY, an increase of 3.5xYoY. The said increase in profitability is due to 57%YoY increase in sales volumetric sales, where volumes were slashed during SPLY due to multiple days of plant shutdown amidst supply chain constraints. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 50%YoY to PkR18.6bn (vs. PkR12.4bn in 3QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to increase to 8.6%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, other income is expected to contract by 76%YoY given the absence of ST investments amid decline in customer advances. We have a ‘BUY’ call on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.
D.G Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 25 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- D.G Khan Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,762 million (EPS: PKR 4.02) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 49.26% YoY.
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 19,147 million, up 34.21% YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
- Gross margins are estimated at 20.10%, down 5.4ppt YoY.
GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (Glaxo):Result Review: GLAXO 1QCY25 EPS Rs6.7 - By Sherman Research
Apr 25 2025
Sherman Securities
- GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (Glaxo) announced 1QCY25 EPS of Rs6.7 versus EPS of 1.8 during the same period last year, up by massive 3.7xYoY. The jump in earning is primarily attributable to increase in gross margins to 34% (up 19ppts).
- During 1QCY25, the company’s topline remained flat at 15.6bn compared to same period last year mainly due decline in volume.
- Thanks to hike in prices and decline in raw material prices, Glaxo’s gross margin sharply increased to 34% during 1QCY25 versus 15% during same period last year.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Earnings Beat by Lower Than Expected ETR - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Mari Energies Limited (MARI PA) has announced its 3QFY25 profit of PKR 15.9bn (PKR 13.25/share), up by 13% YoY & 42% on QoQ basis. The result is above our expectations mainly due to lower than anticipated ETR.
- Revenue fell 5% YoY (up by 10% QoQ) in 3Q, driven by lower oil prices. Royalty rose 2x YoY due to a 15% hike in MARI field charges amid lease extension from Nov’24.
- Operating expenses declined by 27% YoY and 45% QoQ, mainly because of absence of amortization of dry well costs. Exploration expenses also decreased by 81% YoY and 22% on QoQ basis, mainly because of no dry well during the qtr.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR13.2 – Above expectatio - By Insight Research
Apr 25 2025
Insight Securities
- Mari Energies (MARI PA) has announced its 3QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR15.9bn (EPS: PKR13.2) vs. PKR14.1bn (EPS: PKR11.8). The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher than expected topline coupled with lower than expected ETR.
- In 3QFY25, revenue decreased by 5% YoY mainly due to lower gas production. However, same in up by 10% QoQ possibly attributable to increase in production.
- Royalty expense increased by 100%/45% YoY/QoQ due to an additional 15% royalty payment on the wellhead value, following the extension of the MARI D&P lease.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA): Earnings Dip 39% QoQ on Lower Offtake - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- FATIMA announced its 1QCY25 results today. On a consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 3.99 (our expectations of PKR 4.21). with Sales declining by 21% YoY and 40% QoQ to PKR 51.96 billion, primarily due to lower Offtakes. Despite this, gross margins remained better at 40% (vs. 42% YoY and 32% QoQ) indicating cost efficiencies as production levels remained largely consistent.
- Inventory levels remain high, with FATIMA holding 233KT of urea, which accounts for 28% of the total industry stock, as well as 258KT of CAN, a product it produces exclusively within the industry. The overall industry continues to struggle with offtake, primarily due to reduced farm incomes following the shift from a crop support price regime to a free market system, while input costs have remained unchanged.
- Finance costs rose sharply by 131% YoY, due to higher borrowings. The effective tax rate for the quarter stood at 39%, compared to 49% in the SPLY and 37% in the previous quarter.
Pakistan Economy: CPI expected at 0.8% in April'25 - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Inflation for Apr’25 is projected at 0.8%, sharply down from 17.3% in SPLY, indicating significant easing in price pressures. On a MoM basis, CPI is expected to decline by 0.29%, reversing the 0.89% increase in Mar’25. This drop is mainly driven by lower prices of Wheat, Eggs, Fresh fruits, Onions, and Tomatoes, leading to a 1.5% MoM decline in overall food inflation. The Housing index is also expected to fall by 0.8% MoM, despite rent adjustments, due to a reduction in the electricity index from negative fuel price adjustments in April.
- Core inflation is projected to ease to 8.4% from 15.6% in SPLY, with urban core at 7.6% and rural core at 9.5%. The sharp decline is due to the high base effect and improved price stability. However, rural core inflation remains relatively elevated due to persistent challenges like supply chain inefficiencies and higher transportation costs in rural areas.
- In its last meeting, the SBP maintained the policy rate at 12%, opting to pause after a cumulative 1,000 bps rate cut to evaluate its impact on inflation and overall macroeconomic stability. The MPC flagged persistent risks from elevated core inflation and possible upticks in food and energy prices. Meanwhile, the government raised the PDL by another PKR 8/liter, pushing the total to PKR 78/liter. The IMF has also stressed the need for continued monetary discipline, noting that the full effects of recent rate cuts are yet to be seen. Additionally, with the federal budget due in June, policymakers are likely to monitor its potential inflationary implications closely. Given these factors, we expect a status quo in the upcoming MPC.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 1QCY25 EPS arrives at PKR 11.3; PAT up 11%YoY/ up 14%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 25 2025
Taurus Securities
- 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 11.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 11%YoY – in line with expectations. In addition, HBL has also announced an interim DPS of PKR 4.50. Profitability has improved mainly due to uptick in the net-interest margin for the Bank.
- Net Interest Income (NII): Up 14%YoY/QoQ, wherein the decline in interest income was more than offset by lower interest expenses which can be attributed to lower cost of funds as a result of lower leverage and benefit of the new MDR regime.
- Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 7%YoY. However, declined 40% on a sequential basis primarily due to a 90% decline in other income which included a substantial gain on closure/sale of branches last quarter amounting to PKR 14.3Bn.
Pakistan Textile: 3QFY25E Result Preview: Profitability to dip as margin pressure outweighs finance cost relief - By AKD Research
Apr 25 2025
AKD Securities
- AKD Textile Universe’s profitability is projected to decline by 12%YoY in 3QFY25E, mainly due to lower gross margins and higher taxation.
- Company-wise, NML and NCL earnings are expected to improve on an annual basis with EPS of PkR4.58/2.14 in 3QFY25E, respectively. Conversely, ILP’s profitability is expected to decline by 66%YoY to PkR1.13/sh, mainly due to gross margin contraction.
- We maintain our ‘BUY’ stance on ILP, NML and NCL with Dec’25 target price of PkR104/sh, PkR187/sh and PkR64/sh, respectively.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR4.0 – Above expectation - By Insight Research
Apr 25 2025
Insight Securities
- FATIMA has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR8.4bn (EPS: PKR3.99) vs. PAT of PKR13.6bn (EPS: PKR6.49) in preceding quarter. The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher than expected gross margins.
- Revenue for the quarter clocked in at PKR52.0bn vs. PKR66.0bn in SPLY, down by 21%/40% YoY/QoQ, mainly attributable to lower offtakes.
- Gross margins decreased by ~200bps YoY, to clock in at ~40%, attributable to lower offtakes. While on QoQ basis, margins increased by ~8ppts.
Ibrahim Fibres Limited (IBFL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research
Apr 25 2025
Taurus Securities
- Ibrahim Fibres Limited was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public limited company. The Company’s primary business is to manufacture and sell polyester staple fibre and yarn.
- In CY24, revenue clocked in at PKR 121Bn compared to PKR 120Bn, up 1% over the SPLY. Gross margins increased 1ppts arriving at 8% compared to 7% in the SPLY. Other income declined by ~57%YoY arriving at PKR 36Mn compared to PKR 83Mn. Hence, PAT arrived at PKR 2.3Bn compared to PKR 303Mn, up 6.8x in CY24. Consequently, earnings arrived PKR 7.6/sh compared to PKR 0.98/sh.
- In CY24, the Company earned PKR 77.7Bn from PSF, which represents 64% of total revenue, while yarn generated PKR 42.8Bn, contributing 36% to the overall revenue.
Economy: Successful IMF Review to clear the path for KSE-100 - By AKD Research
Mar 3 2025
AKD Securities
- The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. actions.
- We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn EFF amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE-100 positive.
- IMF green light to provide impetus: The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut in Jan’25 MPC and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. aid freeze and tariffs. We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE100 positive. Moreover, significant reduction in inflation and controlled external account position amid subdued economic activity has strengthened case for further monetary easing. With real positive interest rates at 7.5% based on our 12-month forward projections, we anticipate the SBP will cut interest rates by another 250 bps in CY25.
Pakistan Auto: Autos Result Preview: Profitability on the rise - By AKD Research
Jan 21 2025
AKD Securities
- INDU 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3) in 2QFY25E compared to PkR1.7bn (EPS: PkR22.2), a 2.7xYoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 2.4xYoY to 6,383 units compared to 2,687 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown in SPLY. Topline is anticipated to rise by 2.5xYoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales. Moreover, gross margins are expected to improve to 14.8% amid decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY. With regards to opex, higher volumes along with elevated advertisement expenses associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 27%YoY increase in operating expenses. Overall, 1HFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR125.1/sh, up 98%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR36.0/sh, bringing the dividend for the first half to PkR75.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
- HCAR – 3QMY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.49): Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. (HCAR)’s board is scheduled to announce their 3QMY25E earnings on Jan 22nd 2025, where we expect earnings to clock in at PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.5) vs. PkR143mn (EPS: PkR1.0) in SPLY, an increase of 3.5xYoY. The said increase in profitability is due to 57%YoY increase in sales volumetric sales, where volumes were slashed during SPLY due to multiple days of plant shutdown amidst supply chain constraints. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 50%YoY to PkR18.6bn (vs. PkR12.4bn in 3QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to increase to 8.6%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, other income is expected to contract by 76%YoY given the absence of ST investments amid decline in customer advances. We have a ‘BUY’ call on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.