Pakistan Cement: 2QFY25 Previews: Profitability to decline by 1% YoY - By Insight Research

Jan 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect ISL cement universe to post a PAT of ~PKR14.3bn in 2QFY25 declining by 1% YoY amid lower gross margins and other income. While on QoQ, profitability is expected to increase by 10% QoQ, on account of higher volumetric sales and decline in finance cost. Revenue is anticipated to increase by 14% YoY due to higher retention prices. Similarly on QoQ, same is up by 21% due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins are expected to clock in at 29% in 2QFY25 vs. 30% in 2QFY24 and 1QFY25. Finance cost is expected to decline by 31%/29% YoY/QoQ on account of decline in interest rates and debt levels. On company specific basis, we expect LUCK/DGKC/ MLCF/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to post EPS of PKR18.6 / 4.3 / 1.7 / 1.5 / 6.1 / 1.1 in 2QFY25, respectively.
  • During the quarter, local cement dispatches remained flat YoY, while same is up by 23% QoQ due to decline in cement prices in northern region. Similarly, cement exports surged by 40%/24% YoY/QoQ to clock in at 2.6mn tons. To note, capacity utilization of the sector clocked in at 58% vs 55% in SPLY.

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Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25 Previews: Profitability to increase by 36% YoY - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect ISL cement universe to post a PAT of ~PKR10.6bn in 3QFY25 increasing by 36% YoY amid higher offtakes and lower finance cost. While on QoQ, profitability is expected to decline by 21%, mainly due to decline in offtakes and lower retention price for north based players. Revenue is anticipated to increase by 7% YoY due to higher volumetric sales and retention price. While on QoQ, same is expected to decline by 16% due to lower retention price and volumetric sales. Gross margins are expected to clock in at 30% in 3QFY25 vs. 28% in 3QFY24 and 34% in 2QFY25. Finance cost is expected to decline by 46% YoY on account of decline in interest rates and debt levels. To note, in previous quarter cement companies took advantage of cheaper loans amid ADR pressure on banking sector. However, we have assumed normalization of short term borrowing this quarter resulting in decline in other income (↓20%) and finance cost (↓43%). On company specific basis, we expect LUCK/DGKC/MLCF/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to post EPS of PKR22.1/3.6/2.2/1.1/ 5.8 /4.0 in 3QFY25, respectively.
  • During the quarter, local cement dispatches increased by 2% YoY, while on QoQ same is down by 6% due to winter and Ramadan effect. Similarly, cement exports surged by 19% YoY to clock in at 1.7mn tons. To note, capacity utilization of the sector clocked in at 52% in 3QFY25 vs 50% in SPLY.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25 Preview: Lower offtakes to dent profitability - By Insight Research

Apr 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • As per NFDC, urea offtakes decreased by 38% YoY to clock in at 1.13mn tons in 1QCY25, from 1.82mn tons in SPLY. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52% YoY to reach at 143kt, compared to 299kt in SPLY. This decrease is primarily attributable to weak farm economics. Due to steep decline in offtakes, we estimate EFERT/FFC/FATIMA to post EPS of PKR2.0/9.1/3.3 in 1QCY25, respectively.
  • FFC is expected to post unconsolidated PAT of PKR12.9bn (EPS: PKR9.1) in 1QCY25, reflecting a decline of ~13%/9% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by lower offtakes. In 1QCY25, FFC's urea offtakes decrease by 34%/36% YoY/QoQ to reach at 537kt, compared to 819kt in the SPLY and 839kt in previous quarter. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52%/77% YoY/QoQ. FFC's revenue is expected to clock in at PKR60.8bn, down from PKR104.9bn in SPLY. Gross margins are expected to increase by ~11ppts YoY, amid increase in product prices. Similarly on QoQ basis, gross margins improved by ~10ppts due to a one-off adjustment in the previous quarter following the FFBL merger. Additionally, company’s finance cost is anticipated to decrease by 35% YoY, primarily due to decline in interest rates. Other income is expected to witness a decrease of ~46% YoY, amid lower dividend income and interest rates. Whereas same is expected to increase by ~14% QoQ due to dividend income in the quarter and increase in cash & cash equivalent. Along with the result, we expect company to announce a cash dividend of PKR7.3/sh.
Pakistan Economy: Power tariff got slashed - By Insight Research

Apr 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, Prime Minister has announced a reduction in electricity tariffs by PKR7.41/unit for residential consumers and PKR7.59/unit for industrial users. This long-awaited relief had been widely anticipated in recent months, as rising administered energy prices were significantly eroding consumer purchasing power and were negatively impacting the overall economic activity. According to government sources, the IMF has endorsed this plan.
  • To address the issue, the government initiated measures such as revising/terminating contracts with IPPs and increasing the rate of PDL on petroleum products by PKR10/ltr last month, to finance tariff differential subsidy.
  • The primary contributors to the PKR7/unit tariff reduction includes termination of Power Purchase Agreements with certain IPPs along with renegotiation regarding hybrid take and pay model with others. Furthermore, the government plans to utilize the incremental revenue from the recent PKR10/ltr hike in PDL to fund Tariff Differential Subsidy. Moreover, Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of ~PKR1.9/unit, effective from Apr’25, along with expected fuel cost adjustments, will further support the government in implementing the announced relief of ~PKR7/unit.
Economy: Mar’25 CPI likely to clock in at 0.65% - By Insight Research

Mar 27 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is set to fall below 1% mark in Mar’25 and is estimated to clock in at ~0.65%. The decline in CPI is mainly driven by lower food prices and is further aided by decline in housing and transport index. On MoM basis, inflation is likely to inch up by 0.8%, amid higher food prices due to Ramzan seasonality. While housing and transport index is likely to decline MoM amid negative FCA in electricity charges and lower motor fuel prices, respectively. This will take 9MFY25 inflation to ~5.4% compared to ~27.2% in SPLY.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomatoes (42.5↑%), Fresh fruits (41.1↑%), Chicken (15.0%↑), Eggs (14.7%↑) & Sugar (11.4%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Onions (20.7%↓), Tea (11.8%↓), Fresh vegetables (8.9%↓), Potatoes (7.3%↓) & Pulse gram (6.7%↓).
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): Defensive play with steady gains - By Insight Research

Mar 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • MCB boasts one of the highest current account mixes in the banking sector. MCB presents a compelling investment case due to its attractive dividend yield and stable strategic approach. The bank has been focusing on building a low-cost deposit base and with interest rates dropping sharply in the last few quarters resulting in narrowing NIMs and the removal of ADR-based taxation, the bank is now more focused on increasing zero-cost deposits in its mix.
  • We maintain our BUY stance on MCB, with a DDM & P/BV based target price of PKR345/sh for Dec’25. The stock is currently trading at a P/E & P/B of 6.9x & 1.3x on CY25 estimates, with a DY of ~13%
  • Key risk to our investment thesis are i) Lower than estimated growth in current accounts, ii) Deterioration in asset quality, iii) Higher than estimated operating expenses and iv) Abrupt changes in regulatory framework.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): Analyst briefing takeaways - By insight Research

Mar 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing.
  • INDU posted a PAT of PKR9.96bn in 1HFY25 compared to PAT of PKR4.96bn in SPLY. The increase in profitability is driven by higher volumetric sales and healthy gross margins.
  • Management stated that improvement in gross margins is attributable to stable exchange rate, reduced fixed cost, higher localization level and efficient energy mix. To highlight, solar constitutes ~25% of total energy requirement.
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL): Solid foundations - By Insight Research

Mar 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on PPL with reserves based Dec’25 target price of PKR280/sh, implying 54% potential upside. With the consecutive increase in gas prices for past four semi-annual revisions, cashflow situation has improved significantly in state owned oil & gas companies where PPL’s cash collection ratio improved to ~100% in 1HFY25 vs. 73% in SPLY. As per 1HFY25 accounts, company’s CFO reached to PKR48.6bn vs. PKR32.1bn in SPLY, attributable to higher recovery from Sui companies.
  • The company's cash flow is expected to remain robust going forward due to higher recoveries from Sui companies. Additionally, IMF program will ensure that the Government will continue to pass on cost pressure to consumer. This will ease the company’s liquidity constraints, enabling it to expand exploration activities, focus on growth-related projects, and provide higher payouts.
  • The Government has taken steps to enhance the viability of the sector and reduce reliance on imports by increasing local production. Any progress in resolving the gas circular debt pileup would be highly beneficial for PPL, as company holds overdue trade debts of PKR544bn (PKR200/sh) from SOEs, as per Dec’24 accounts. Furthermore, Barrick Gold’s feasibility study for Reko Diq highlights a compelling 22% dollarized IRR, reinforcing its potential as a significant value driver for the company. Based on our initial estimates, Reko Diq is projected to contribute PKR87/sh to PPL’s valuation, positioning it as a key catalyst for long-term growth.