AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
AGP Limited (AGP): 1QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 3.04, up 1.1xYoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25: – EPS: PKR 3.04, PAT: PKR 1.0Bn, up 1.3xYoY, in line with expectations.
  • AGP’s topline clocked-in at PKR 7.1Bn for 1QCY25, mainly benefitting from the deregulation of non essential medicines and increase in prices of multiple essential medicines. Gross margins increased ~4pptsYoY by arriving at ~58% as compared to ~53% in the SPLY (as expected) driven by higher prices of medicines.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 385Mn as compared to PKR 730Mn, down 47%YoY/27%QoQ driven by lower policy rate and the Company’s reduced borrowings. Whereas, tax rate arrived at 40% compared to 37%.
AGP Limited (AGP): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • AGP Limited was incorporated as a public limited company in May 2014. The Company got listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited on 05 March 2018. The principal activities of the Company include import, marketing, export, dealership, distribution, wholesale and manufacturing of all kinds of pharmaceutical products.
  • In CY24, stand-alone revenue clocked in at PKR 18.5Bn compared to PKR 13.8Bn, up 34% over the SPLY. While consolidated revenue clocked in at PKR 25Bn as compared to PKR 18.7Bn, up 34% driven by higher prices. Consolidated gross margins increased 4ppts arriving at 58% compared to 54% in the SPLY primarily attributable to pass on effects of prices to customers.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 2.6Bn compared to PKR 1.6Bn, up 65% in the SPLY driven by higher interest rates on the back of higher borrowing requirement. Similarly, effective tax rate clocked in at 33% compared to 31% mainly due to the higher tax rate and shift to normal tax regime. Consequently, PAT arrived in at PKR 2.9Bn as compared to PKR 1.8Bn, up 64% over the SPLY. Resultantly, earnings increased by 70% arriving at PKR 9.53/sh compared to PKR 5.59/sh
AGP Limited (AGP): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Apr 28 2025



  • AGP Limited reported a net profit of PKR 2.08 billion (EPS: PKR 7.44) in CY24, reflecting a 75% increase compared to PKR 1.19 billion (EPS: PKR 4.25) in the previous year.
  • Net sales rose 34% YoY to PKR 18.54 billion, while consolidated revenue reached PKR 25.03 billion, up from PKR 18.74 billion in SPLY. Growth was driven by a 21% increase in volumes and a 13% price impact. Consolidated gross margins improved to 58.1% from 53.6% in the SPLY, while operating margins expanded to 28.5% from 22.7%, attributed to successful price adjustments and operational efficiencies
  • Management highlighted that recent acquisitions have contributed significantly to performance, with a 5-year consolidated revenue CAGR of 38%, of which 52% was driven by inorganic growth.
AGP Limited (AGP): Profitability prospects to remain attractive; Buy - By JS Research

Apr 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), expecting the company to post consolidated earnings of Rs861mn, up 2.2x YoY, taking EPS to Rs3.07. The significant rise in profitability is primarily driven by rise in drug prices with higher nonessential mix, increase in sales volume, and lower finance costs.
  • On QoQ basis, profitability is likely to witness a dip owing to relatively lower margins (compared to the previous quarter with peak sales volumes/ margins). Accordingly, we expect gross margins to hover around 59% in 1QCY25, down 5ppts QoQ.
  • While seasonal factors weighed on quarterly margins, annual gross margins are expected to remain stable, underpinned by a higher non-essential mix (>60%), softer API prices, and the full internalization of the Viatris portfolio by end-CY25.
AGP Limited (AGP): 4QCY24 expected EPS of PKR 2.86, up 35%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24: – EPS: PKR 2.86, PAT: ~PKR 849Mn, up ~35% over the SPLY.
  • AGP’s topline is expected to arrive-in at ~PKR 7.8Bn for 4QCY24, mainly benefitting from the deregulation of non essential medicines and the Government’s decision of increasing prices of multiple essential medicines. Currently, AGP's revenue mix is evenly split between essential and non-essential medicines on a consolidated basis. Similarly, we expect the gross margin to hover around 54%, aligning with the Company’s historic trend.
  • For CY24, sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 25Bn, up 36%YoY. However, the upside in revenue is likely to be off-set by increase in expenses, finance cost and taxation, up 33%/64%/67% YoY resulting in EPS of PKR 8.12. We expect future earnings to follow the same trend as the Company is expected to benefit from deregulation, looking forward.
AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
AGP Ltd (AGP): Unlocking value through strong growth; Buy – By JS Research

Nov 19 2024


JS Global Capital


  • We reinstate coverage on AGP Ltd (AGP) with a Target Price of Rs220/share; implying an upside of 48% from current levels
  • strong growth trajectory - AGP is well-positioned for 5-year revenue CAGR of 16% (CY24-CY29E), driven by its robust product portfolio, expanding distribution network, and strategic acquisitions (Sandoz and Viatris).
  • cost optimization and industry-leading margins – with expectations to maintain next 5-year average gross margins at 59%, vis-à-vis historical 5-year average gross margins of 55%.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
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