AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
AGP Limited (AGP): 4QCY24 expected EPS of PKR 2.86, up 35%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24: – EPS: PKR 2.86, PAT: ~PKR 849Mn, up ~35% over the SPLY.
  • AGP’s topline is expected to arrive-in at ~PKR 7.8Bn for 4QCY24, mainly benefitting from the deregulation of non essential medicines and the Government’s decision of increasing prices of multiple essential medicines. Currently, AGP's revenue mix is evenly split between essential and non-essential medicines on a consolidated basis. Similarly, we expect the gross margin to hover around 54%, aligning with the Company’s historic trend.
  • For CY24, sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 25Bn, up 36%YoY. However, the upside in revenue is likely to be off-set by increase in expenses, finance cost and taxation, up 33%/64%/67% YoY resulting in EPS of PKR 8.12. We expect future earnings to follow the same trend as the Company is expected to benefit from deregulation, looking forward.
AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
AGP Ltd (AGP): Unlocking value through strong growth; Buy – By JS Research

Nov 19 2024


JS Global Capital


  • We reinstate coverage on AGP Ltd (AGP) with a Target Price of Rs220/share; implying an upside of 48% from current levels
  • strong growth trajectory - AGP is well-positioned for 5-year revenue CAGR of 16% (CY24-CY29E), driven by its robust product portfolio, expanding distribution network, and strategic acquisitions (Sandoz and Viatris).
  • cost optimization and industry-leading margins – with expectations to maintain next 5-year average gross margins at 59%, vis-à-vis historical 5-year average gross margins of 55%.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Pakistan Cement: 3QFY25E—Profitability to decrease by 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 20.2Bn, down 21%QoQ on the back of drop in total dispatches by 13% QoQ (Net sales expected to fall by 10%QoQ in 3QFY25) i.e. domestic dispatches were down notably by 7%QoQ to 9.3Mn tons in 3QFY25 as construction demand plummeted due to winter effect and seasonality i.e. Ramadan and Eid Holidays. Further, Export dispatches dropped drastically by 35% to 1.7Mn tons in 3QFY25 owing to lower demand mainly.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, down 2pptsQoQ due to drop in retail prices mainly in the North region (-6%QoQ) which put significant pressure on retention prices for North based players during the quarter. To note, capacity utilization in 3QFY25 fell to 51% compared to 58% during the previous quarter. Net income is expected to arrive at PKR 8.1Bn, down 9%QoQ.
  • During 3QFY25, we expect South based players to improve their margins on account of flat retail prices compared to the previous quarter along with lower international coal prices which has sustained higher retention prices during the quarter. To note, Richard Bay Coal prices averaged at USD 95.6/ton in 3QFY25, down 13% over the previous quarter.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX): Preconditions to takeoff – 2 - By Chase Research

Apr 17 2025



  • We revise our estimated fair value for Dec 2025 to PKR 41/share, reflecting stronger-than-expected value traded, a higher ADTV-to-market cap ratio, a reduction in the discount rate, and a rollover to December 2025. The stock offers a 45% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy rating.
  • PSX operates as a unified national exchange, with over 500 listed companies across 38 sectors and a market capitalization exceeding PKR 14 trillion.
  • PSX owns 50% of NCCPL, which manages the clearing, settlement, and risk management functions of the stock market.
Power: Mar’25 generation up 5%YoY / 15%MoM - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power generation in March 2025 clocked in at 8,409GWh, marking a 5%YoY increase and a 21%MoM recovery, driven by seasonal improvement in demand as the weather changes. This rebound follows the February slowdown, where generation had declined to 6,945GWh due to reduced industrial and household demand during winter.
  • For the 9MFY25, power generation dropped by 2%YoY, declining to 90,147GWh from 92,345GWh recorded in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation declined sharply by 41%YoY and 31%MoM, contributing only 1,297GWh amid lower water availability. In contrast, coal-based generation surged 1.2xYoY to 1,938GWh and 68%MoM, likely due to better plant availability and reduction in global coal prices. Nuclear generation rose 7%YoY and 20%MoM, contributing the highest share at 2,223GWh. Elsewhere, generation from expensive sources like HSD and furnace oil dropped to 0%, aligning with the Government’s strategy to transition toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Moving averages to limit downside - By JS Research

Apr 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 116,020, down 755 points DoD. Volumes stood at 482mn shares compared to 479mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is moving towards the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,706 where a fall below targeting the 50-DMA at 114,542. However, any upside will find resistance in the range of 116,400-117,430 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 50-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,390 and 117,037 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $235m in March, total crosses $10bn - By Vector Research

Apr 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Total inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) reached $235 million in March 2025, pushing cumulative inflows past the $10 billion mark, according to the latest data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Terming Pakistan’s tax system highly ‘unfair and absurd’, the World Bank (WB) has called for bringing property into the tax net while ensuring it is accurately recorded and taxed. According to the WB, the increased burden on the salaried class could only be reduced by expanding the tax base and incorporating all incomes into the tax net.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Wednesday credited Beijing with Islamabad’s IMF programme saying it wouldn’t have been possible without the neighbouring country’s support. The premier’s remarks — made during a ceremony held in connection with the PM’s initiative for capacity building of 1,000 agriculture graduates in China — came in the context of last month’s deal between Islamabad and the IMF on the first review of the ongoing 37-month bailout programme of $7 billion.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 Preview: Profitability to stay muted - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR806mn (EPS: PKR0.50) in 1QCY25 vs. loss of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in preceding quarter amid better core delta. While on YoY basis profitability inch up by ~2%. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~13% YoY to clock in at ~US$682/ton. Similarly, PX prices witnessed a decrease of ~16% YoY to clock in at US$868/ ton, resulting in an increase of ~9% in PTA-PX spread. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 25% YoY to clock in at PKR24.3bn in 1QCY25, amid lower volumetric sales. Whereas, same is expected to increase by ~20% QoQ due to higher volumetric sales. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 6.5% in 1QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~130bps/5.7ppts YoY/QoQ on account of improved core delta. Selling and distribution expense is expected to increase by 39%/20%, YoY/QoQ.
  • EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR264mn (LPS: PKR0.29) in 1QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR900mn (LPS: PKR0.99) in SPLY. Company’s topline is expected to increase by 12% YoY to clock in at PKR18.5bn in 1QCY25, amid higher volumetric sales. While, same is expected to decline by ~13% QoQ primarily due to lower PVC prices. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 10.2% in 1QCY25 witnessing an increase of ~380bps YoY, attributable to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is expected to decline by ~390bps amid lower core delta and higher gas prices. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~4%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$756/ton. Similarly, PVCEthylene margins witnessed a decline of ~5%/10% YoY/QoQ. Selling and distribution expense is expected to decrease by 32% YoY, whereas same is expected to go down by ~8% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 22%/27% YoY/ QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in debt level and interest rates.
Economy: Rating upgrade: Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ - By Foundation Research

Apr 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fitch has upgraded Pakistan’s long term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ and has termed the country’s outlook ‘stable’.
  • The ratings agency highlighted key metrics behind the upgrade which included the following:
  • Fitch expressed confidence in Pakistan’s progress on the fiscal front with reduced deficits and implementation of structural reforms. Further, the agency stressed upon tight economic policy that is expected to support build-up of forex reserves and limited external financing needs
AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
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