Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 3QMY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 3.97 – By Foundation Research

Jan 22 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Honda Atlas Car (HCAR PA) reported profitability of PKR 566Mn (EPS PKR 4.0), up 4.0x YoY in 3QMY25 against profit of PKR 143Mn (EPS PKR 1.0) in 3QMY24. While, in 9MMY25, company reported a profit of PKR 1,027Mn (EPS Rs7.2), up 7% YoY. Additionally, the company did not announce any cash dividends in 3QMY25.
  • HCAR posted net sales of PKR 17.8Bn (↑44/8% YoY/QoQ) in 3QMY25 driven by volumetric growth in car sales. Company’s sales volume clocked-in at 3,736 units in 3QMY25 (↑57/12% YoY/QoQ), with impetus coming primarily from City+Civic of 3,398 units, up 64/13% YoY/QoQ. Additionally, contribution from HR-V+BR-V of 338 units underwent a growth/decline of 14/1% YoY/QoQ. Resultantly, in 9MMY25, net sales clocked-in at PKR 50.4Bn (↑67% YoY) supported by volumetric growth of 89% YoY.
  • Company’s gross profit margin arrived at 9.2% in 3QMY25, up 0.9/1.8ppts YoY/QoQ owing to stable PKR/USD parity and CRC prices and absence of import restrictions. Moreover, cost of sales increased 42/5% YoY/QoQ inline with volumetric growth.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 4QMY25 EPS to clocked-in at PKR 4.82; PAT down 50%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 22 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MY25: EPS: PKR 12.01; DPS: NIL; PAT: PKR 1.7Bn, down 27%YoY.
  • HCAR’s top line is expected to arrive at PKR 25.8Bn in 4QMY25, up 4%YoY and 45%QoQ, driven by a strong recovery in sales volumes to 5,692 units during the quarter up 13%YoY and 52%QoQ. For MY25, HCAR sold 16,061 units, marking a robust 53%YoY growth from 10,530 units last year supported by easing recovery in demand amid favorable macros.
  • Gross profit is projected to decline slightly by 2%YoY to PKR 2.1Bn, with gross margins compressing due to cost-side pressures despite higher revenues. Operating profit is expected at PKR 1.1Bn, down 12%YoY, amid a rise in administrative expenses by 21%YoY.
IBL HealthCare Limited (IBLHL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Feb 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IBL Healthcare Pakistan, a leading player in the healthcare and wellness industry, operates across diverse segments, including Nutrition, Health & Wellness, Ophthalmic, Medical Disposables, and Pharmaceuticals. Despite facing challenges in FY24, including supply chain constraints and plant shutdowns, the Company continues to focus on strategic growth and product innovation.
  • IBL Healthcare reported a 11%YoY decline in revenue, totaling ~PKR 3.6Bn in FY24, down from ~PKR 4.0Bn in FY23. This was mainly attributed to supply chain disruptions caused by the plant shutdown of Mead Johnson in Thailand.
  • The Company’s profit significantly reduced to ~PKR 7.6Mn (EPS: PKR 0.09) in FY24, compared to PKR 309Mn (EPS: PKR 3.61) in FY23. This decline was driven by discounts offered due to the limited shelf life of food products.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 3QMY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 3.97 – By Foundation Research

Jan 22 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Honda Atlas Car (HCAR PA) reported profitability of PKR 566Mn (EPS PKR 4.0), up 4.0x YoY in 3QMY25 against profit of PKR 143Mn (EPS PKR 1.0) in 3QMY24. While, in 9MMY25, company reported a profit of PKR 1,027Mn (EPS Rs7.2), up 7% YoY. Additionally, the company did not announce any cash dividends in 3QMY25.
  • HCAR posted net sales of PKR 17.8Bn (↑44/8% YoY/QoQ) in 3QMY25 driven by volumetric growth in car sales. Company’s sales volume clocked-in at 3,736 units in 3QMY25 (↑57/12% YoY/QoQ), with impetus coming primarily from City+Civic of 3,398 units, up 64/13% YoY/QoQ. Additionally, contribution from HR-V+BR-V of 338 units underwent a growth/decline of 14/1% YoY/QoQ. Resultantly, in 9MMY25, net sales clocked-in at PKR 50.4Bn (↑67% YoY) supported by volumetric growth of 89% YoY.
  • Company’s gross profit margin arrived at 9.2% in 3QMY25, up 0.9/1.8ppts YoY/QoQ owing to stable PKR/USD parity and CRC prices and absence of import restrictions. Moreover, cost of sales increased 42/5% YoY/QoQ inline with volumetric growth.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 3QMY25 Result Review Margins revive amid shifting sales mix – By AKD Research

Jan 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) announced its 3QMY25 results today where the company posted PAT of PkR566mn (EPS: PkR3.97) vs. PAT of PkR143mn (EPS: PkR1.00) in SPLY. The annual incline is primarily driven by higher volumetric sales and improved margins given lower CRC/HRC prices. Overall, earnings remained largely in-line with our expectation.
  • Topline of the company clocked in at PkR17.8bn in 3QMY25, an increase of 44% on yearly basis. This rise is majorly attributable to higher volumetric sales, with the company selling 3,804 units compared to 2,375 units in 3QMY24.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 9.2% vs. 8.3% in SPLY. We believe the improving margins are due to i) shift in sales mix reverting towards Civic sales and ii) 12.9%YoY decline in CRC/HRC prices.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 3QMY25 EPS at Rs3.97, up 3.95x YoY and 2.2x QoQ – higher than industry expectations – By Topline Research

Jan 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Honda Atlas Car Pakistan (HCAR) announced its 3QMY25 result today, where the company recorded profit of Rs566mn (EPS of Rs3.97), up 3.95x YoY and 2.2x QoQ. The result came higher than industry expectations.
  • The earnings jump in the 3QMY25 is due to higher gross margins of 9.2% compared to our expectations of 8.3%. These 3QMY25 gross margins are also higher than 8.3% recorded in 3QMY24 and 7.4% in 2QMY25.
  • Additionally, distribution expenses saw a significant decline of 20% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rs147mn, while other operating expenses dropped sharply by 72% YoY and 74% QoQ to Rs17mn, further contributing to the rise in earnings. This is mainly due to significant fall in overall inflation.
Honda Atlas Cars Limited (HCAR): 3QMY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 2.7; PAT up 49%QoQ – By Taurus Research

Jan 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 3QMY25: EPS: PKR 2.7; DPS: NIL; PAT: PKR 384Mn, up 1.7xYoY.
  • During 3QMY25, we expect HCAR’s sales revenue to clock-in at ~PKR 17.7Bn, up 7%QoQ/42%YoY. On a sequential basis, HCAR’s volumetric sales increased by 12%QoQ, arriving at 3,736 units, primarily due to surge in sales of Honda Civic & City. However, the demand remains subdued amid slight shift in the market trend towards electric vehicles.
  • Further, administration expense is expected to remain on a higher side, arriving at ~PKR 490Mn, up 12%QoQ/23%YoY. Similarly, finance cost is expected to arrive at ~PKR 358Mn, up 85%QoQ/down 19%YoY. Finally, we expect HCAR’s quarterly PAT to clock-in at ~PKR 384Mn, up 49%QoQ/1.7xYoY.
IBL HealthCare Limited (IBLHL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Nov 27 2024


Taurus Securities


  • IBL Healthcare Pakistan, a leading player in the healthcare and wellness industry, operates across diverse segments, including Nutrition, Health & Wellness, Ophthalmic, Medical Disposables, and Pharmaceuticals. Despite facing challenges in FY24, including supply chain constraints and plant shutdowns, the Company continues to focus on strategic growth and product innovation.
  • IBL Healthcare reported a 11%YoY decline in revenue, totaling ~PKR 3.6Bn in FY24, down from ~PKR 4.0Bn in FY23. This was mainly attributed to supply chain disruptions caused by the plant shutdown of Mead Johnson in Thailand.
  • The Company’s profit significantly reduced to ~PKR 7.6Mn (EPS: PKR 0.09) in FY24, compared to PKR 309Mn (EPS: PKR 3.61) in FY23. This decline was driven by discounts offered due to the limited shelf life of food products.
IBL HealthCare Ltd. (IBLHL): FY24 Analyst Briefing takeaways – By AKD Research

Nov 26 2024


AKD Securities


  • IBL HealthCare Ltd. (IBLHL) held its corporate briefing today to discuss its FY24 financial results and future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • Company posted topline of PkR3.6bn in FY24 compared to PkR4.0bn in FY23, down 11% YoY, due to supply chain constraints amid plant shutdown of Mead Johnson in Thailand.
  • Moreover, company’s profit for the year clocked in at PkR7.6mn (EPS: PkR0.09) in FY24 compared to PkR309mn (EPS: PkR3.61) in FY23, due to discounts offered amid limited shelf life of food products.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Oil Marketing Companies: Sales upswing on better economics - By Foundation Research

Jul 2 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 7% YoY to settle at 16.3mn tons during FY25 given increase of 8% YoY in white oil sales driven by (1) pickup in economic activity amid sharply declining inflation and receding interest rates, (2) lower petroleum prices, and (3) favourable base effect. During FY25, MS/HSD sales enhanced 6/10% YoY whereas FO sales plummeted 23% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 8/39% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 5/6% YoY in FY25. Whereas, sales jumped 8% YoY during Jun’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) witnessed a 7% YoY improvement during FY25 while white oil sales climbed by 8% YoY given strong demand amid pickup in economic activities and lower petroleum prices (avg. of Rs255.8/258.1/liter, down 9/9% YoY, respectively in FY25). Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 7.6/6.9mn tons, up 6/10% YoY in FY25.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales slumped 23% YoY to 806K tons in FY25 given lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Jul 1 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mari Energies Limited (MARI) held its Conference call yesterday to discuss the company’s financial performance in 9MFY25 and future plans. Following are the key takeaways of the call:
  • Mari Energies Limited’s (MARI) profitability clocked-in at PKR 15.9Bn (EPS PKR 13.25, up 13% YoY) in 3QFY25 as compared to profit of PKR 14.1Bn (EPS PKR 11.76) in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, profits contracted 10% YoY to PKR 46.3Bn (EPS PKR 38.56) vs. PKR 51.6Bn (EPS PKR 43.00) in the SPLY. This decline in profitability was on the back of 1) incremental royalty of 15%, 2) forced curtailment of indigenous production due to back pressure in the system, and 3) FX stability.
  • The management reiterated the company’s dominance in the exploration and production sector with an area under exploration and production of 97,166 square km while boasting 46 exploration blocks and 14 D&P licenses.
Economy: Large Scale Manufacturing Industrial activity posts modest growth - By Foundation Research

Jun 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • LSM output witnessed an increase of 2.3% YoY in Apr’25 due to low base effect. During 10MFY25, output contracted 1.5% YoY given lagged second round effects of tight monetary stance and weak domestic demand. Prominent sectors that fueled the monthly progress were Automobiles (↑60.2%), Other transport Equipment (↑41.6%), Paper & Board (↑12.1%), Tobacco (↑9.1%), Textile (↑7.9%), Pharmaceuticals (↑7.5%), Coke & Petroleum Products (↑5.5%), Computer, electronics & Op prods (↑5.1%), Fertilizers (↑5.1%), Beverages (↑4.3%), Food (↑3.5%), Wood Products (↑3.0%), Electrical Equipment (↑2.6%), Rubber Products (↑2.3%), Non Metallic Mineral Products (↑1.9%) and Leather Products(↑1.8%). On the flipside, negative contributors were Machinery and Equipment (↓50.7%), Other Manufacturing (Football) (↓41.5%), Furniture (↓40.3%), Chemicals Products (↓10.8%), Wearing Apparel (↓8.6%), Iron & Steel Products (↓1.8%), and Fabricated Metal (↓0.1%).
  • Textile sector underwent a surge of 7.9% YoY as spinning/weaving reported enhancement of 8.7/0.4% YoY. Food production rose 3.5% YoY as sugar, bakery, & chocolate production shot up by 184% YoY during the month. Pharma output grew 7.5% YoY on the back of 6.7/10.3% YoY increase in tablets/syrups production.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research

Jun 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67% YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of 31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
  • Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT, whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Oil Marketing Companies: Expansion continues steadily - By Foundation Research

Jun 3 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 10% YoY (↑5% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of May’25 driven by pickup in economic activity amid reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Productwise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 15/5% YoY during May’25 whereas FO sales grew 16% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 23/31% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 3/2% YoY during the month. Total sales during 11MFY25 settled at 14.8mn tons, up 7% YoY.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 10% YoY in May’25 in line with white oil sales that increased by the same magnitude. Sequentially, volumes went up 7%. Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 700/672K tons, up 15/5% YoY (↑6/8% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD declined marginally to PKR 254/257/ltr (down PKR 2/3/ltr). This takes 11MFY25 sales of MS/HSD to 6.9/6.3mn tons, reflecting growth of 7/10% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales rose 16% YoY to 80K tons in May’25. During 11MFY25, FO sales fell 28% YoY amid lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery still far away - By Foundation Research

May 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell continues for the Fertilizer sector with urea dispatches recorded at only 1,350KT (↓37% YoY) in 4MCY25. Fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. In Apr’25, Urea sales recorded a decline of 24/18% YoY/MoM to only 251KT, a five-year low. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined 52/42% MoM/YoY to 108KT in Apr’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded an incline of 7/56% YoY and 38/14% MoM to 81/42KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 17% MoM but picked up 11.2x YoY to reach 20KT in Apr’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 3/96% YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined/inclined 34%/3.1x YoY and surged 2.0/3.8x MoM to 54/31KT, respectively.
  • Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Apr’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined by 24/18% YoY/MoM in Apr’25, reaching 251KT. DAP offtake increased 3/96% YoY/MoM to 95KT. NP offtake remained jumped 46/31% YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 71KT, while CAN offtake increased 28/15% YoY/MoM to 45KT. In Apr’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,104KT, a five year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 204KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 292/487/279/46KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Apr’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 129/32KT.
  • EFERT offtake picked up: EFERT/FATIMA urea offtake inclined 7/56% YoY, respectively, to reach 81/42KT, in Apr’25. We attribute this incline to the seasonality factor and company incentives to clear inventory. AGL urea offtake showed a massive jump of 11.2x YoY, due to low-base effect. Where the whole industry has undergone a jump in offtake, FFC experienced a decline in Urea dispatches to the tune of 52/42% YoY/MoM to reach 108KT
Oil Marketing Companies: Fuel demand picks up further - By Foundation Research

May 5 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 32% YoY (↑20% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of Apr’25 driven by the low base effect and pickup in economic activities amid reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Product-wise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 24/33% YoY during Apr’25 whereas FO sales grew 182% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL/WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 12/28/23/76% YoY during the month. Total sales during 10MFY25 settled at 13.2mn tons, up 6% YoY.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 32% YoY in Apr’25 while white oil sales increased 28% YoY. Sequentially, volumes went up 20%. Productwise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 660/622K tons, up 24/33% YoY (↑14/28% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD remained stable MoM. This takes 10MFY25 sales of MS/HSD to 6.2/5.6mn tons, reflecting growth of 6/11% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales shot up 182% YoY to 84K tons during Apr’25. During 10MFY25, FO sales fell 31% YoY amid lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC): 3QFY25 EPS recorded at PKR 11.0/sh, DPS PKR 3.0/sh - By Foundation Research

Apr 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC PA) earnings in 3QFY25 remained stable at PKR 47.1Bn (EPS PKR 11.0/sh) vs. PKR 47.8Bn (EPS PKR 11.1/sh) during 3QFY24. While in 9MFY25, the profitability clocked-in at PKR 129.6Bn (EPS PKR 30.1/sh), down 24% YoY, against PKR 171.1Bn (EPS PKR 39.8/sh) in the SPLY. The earnings are in-line with our expectation.
  • The result was accompanied by a cash payout of PKR 3.0/sh taking 9M payout to PKR 10.1/sh.
  • The bottom-line in 3QFY25 remained stable despite a 17% YoY decline in gross profit. We attribute this to (1) stable PKR-USD parity, (2) steady other income (↑5% YoY), and (3) effective tax rate of only 30% against 41% in the SPLY which we believe is due to depletion.
Pakistan Oil and Gas: Lower production and softer oil prices to hamper sector profitability in 3Q - By Foundation Research

Apr 24 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We expect E&P sector profitability to decline 11% YoY during 3QFY25. This is attributable to: 1) avg. oil prices tumbling 5% YoY in 3Q, 2) oil/gas avg. production plummeting 12/5% YoY, and 3) stable PKR/USD parity. On a QoQ basis, we expect sector profitability to inch up 4% on the back of improvement in production stats (oil/gas avg. production surge by 1/7% QoQ) and receding exploration costs.
  • Oil and gas industry production receded in 3QFY25 due to forced curtailment: Oil/gas production declined 12/5% YoY in 3Q, this trend has been ongoing for the last 4 quarters mainly due to forced curtailment of local production to facilitate imported RLNG flows. It is pertinent to highlight that pressure of gas supply led to constraints in system capacity forcing domestic oil & gas production to fall. Considering the same and following some resentment from domestic players, the government has delayed some planned shipments.
  • Status of drilling activity: In 9MFY25, a total of 15/23 of exploratory/development wells were spud as against planned 27/40 in the beginning of FY25. Last year, 11/30 exploratory/development wells were spud against 21/35 planned. Improved exploration activity in the E&P’s space symbolizes easing of cash flows along with multiple block auctions.
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