ENGINEERING: Earnings Fall Amid Lack of Recovery – By IIS Research

Jan 24 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Steel manufacturers are expected to report a YoY drop in earnings due to lower volumetric sales, margin contraction, and higher finance costs. We anticipate ISL and MUGHAL to report EPS of PKR 0.32 and PKR 0.60, respectively, for the quarter under review.
  • The topline is projected to grow by 6% QoQ due to a slight increase in volumes, driven by recovery in the auto sector. ISL increased prices by PKR 10,000/ton in 2QFY25 after reducing them by PKR 45,000/ton in August 2024. International CRC prices have remained flat, while HRC prices rose by 2.5% QoQ, resulting in margin contraction. On a YoY basis, sales are expected to decline by 30.5%, leading to a sharp 89% drop in profitability. Additionally, finance costs are anticipated to rise 2x YoY due to higher short-term borrowings. Gross and net margins are expected to remain almost flat QoQ but show significant YoY declines.
  • Sales are projected at PKR 20.5 billion, marking an 18% YoY decline and a 5% QoQ dip due to sluggish construction activity. Despite a 23% QoQ increase in cement dispatches, signaling some improvement in steel volumes going forward, however, local rebar prices declined by 5% QoQ. Margins for the ferrous segment are expected to improve by 50 bps on QoQ basis, supported by an uptick in rebar-scrap margins. However, the non-ferrous segment is likely to experience a drop in margins due to lower copper prices during the quarter. Finance costs are expected to decline by 25% QoQ due to lower interest rates but have risen by 4% YoY as shortterm borrowings remain elevated at around PKR 30 billion in 2QFY25. The company is expected to report PAT of PKR 200 million, compared to PKR 7 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to monetary easing.

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Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high both intraday and at the close. While the index showed strength, it remained somewhat volatile throughout the session, with instances of profit taking observed as investors locked in gains after the recent rally. Trading volumes decreased to 280mn shares today as compared to 346mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 343 points to close at 130,687 level, up by 0.26% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 392 points to the index.                                     
Morning News: SBP reserves jump $5bn to $14.5bn, surpassing IMF target - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a major achievement on the economic front, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign reserves jumped by $5 billion to reach $14.51 billion end of the last fiscal year (FY25), surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) target of $13.9 billion. Economists noted that this milestone was made possible through the joint efforts of the SBP and the federal government as they successfully stabilized the external sector by implementing prudent macroeconomic policies and securing timely external inflows.
  • The federal government is all set to do away with some incentives extended to overseas Pakistanis to remit money through legal channels.
  • The government spent Rs905 billion on development schemes in the last fiscal year, which was lower than the allocation and may now require a downward revision in the 2.7% economic growth rate that had been worked out on the basis of Rs1.1 trillion in expenses.
Morning News: Oil prices little changed as investors look ahead to OPEC+ meeting - By IIS Research

Jul 2 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors are wary ahead of a meeting of major producers this week to determine output levels for August. Brent crude was up 1 cent at $67.12 a barrel at 0124 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5 cents to $65.40 a barrel. Demand expectations received a boost on Tuesday after a private-sector survey showed factory activity expanded in June in China, the world's biggest oil importer, analysts said.
  • Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at $2.32 billion in June 2025, reflecting a 9.4% improvement compared to May 2025, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Pakistan’s exports stood at $2.543bn in June 2025, a 4.79% drop from $2.671bn in June 2025.
  • The Consumer Price Index-based inflation clocked in at 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in June 2025 as compared to 3.5 percent of the previous month and 12.6 percent in June 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2per cent in June 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5per cent in June 2024.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 1 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, reaching a new all time high both intraday and at closing. The index gradually gained points throughout the session, supported by improved liquidity and sustained investor interest, reflecting strong market confidence. Trading volumes increased to 337mn shares today as compared to 259mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,572 points to close at 128,199 level, up by 2.05% DoD. Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2355 points to the index.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 30 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high at closing as it steadily gained points throughout the session. Improved market liquidity supported sustained buying interest. Trading volumes increased to 259mn shares today as compared to 219mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,248 points to close at 125,627 level, up by 1.00% DoD. Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 749 points to the index.                                                                                     
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note - By IIS Research

Jun 26 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, gradually shedding points throughout the session as profit taking set in. Added pressure from rollover week volatility kept investor sentiment cautious, leading to a subdued close. Trading volumes increased to 244mn shares today as compared to 221mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 715 points to close at 122,046 level, down by -0.58% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 680 points from the index.                                                                                     
Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL): Potential Acquisition of Attock Cement Sponsor Exploring Exit Options - By IIS Research

Jun 26 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pharaon Investment Group Limited (PIGL), the majority shareholder of Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL), is evaluating strategic options for its investment in the company, including a potential sale. This process was initially disclosed in December 2024 and reaffirmed in May 2025. Following this, ACPL has received Public Announcements of Intention from multiple parties to acquire up to 115.5mn shares, representing 84.06% of the company’s paid-up capital, subject to regulatory approvals. While the process is ongoing, formal interest has been disclosed by three distinct sets of acquirers.
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL), located in Hub, Baluchistan, is the second largest cement producer in the South region with an installed capacity of 4.3mn tons. A major 1.3mn ton brownfield expansion, completed in April 2024 at a cost of US$100mn, raised its market share in the South from 18% to 24%. Its coastal location provides logistical advantages for exports and proximity to regional infrastructure and mining developments, including those under CPEC and around the Reko Diq site.
  • ACPL has focused on improving energy efficiency through captive generation. Its total installed capacity now stands at 61.8MW, comprising WHR, solar, coal-fired boiler, and a wind turbine commissioned in March 2025. This shift has reduced reliance on the national grid to 10% and cut power costs by around 35%. While South accounts for a smaller share of domestic cement demand in Pakistan, the region remains dominant in exports. ACPL expects its export volumes to grow further, supported by competitive clinker pricing and increased shipments to markets like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 25 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note as bullish momentum extended from the previous session. Eased regional tensions and stability in commodity prices continued to support investor confidence, with selective buying observed across key sectors. Trading volumes decreased to 221mn shares today as compared to 318mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 515 points to close at 122,762 level, up by 0.42% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Fertilizer sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 491 points to the index.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 24 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note, hitting the halt during the session amid reports of ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased regional tensions and drove oil prices lower. The improved sentiment fueled aggressive buying, lifting the market sharply. Trading volumes increased to 318mn shares today as compared to 196mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 6,079 points to close at 122,247 level, up by 5.23% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 3121 points to the index.
Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC): 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaway - By IIS Research

May 6 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1QCY25 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • To recall, in 1QCY25 FFC on standalone basis reported earnings of PKR 13.3bn (EPS: PKR 9 .33), up 26%YoY from PkR10.5bn (EPS: PKR 7.39) in SPLY. Along side the result, FFC announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 7.0/sh.
  • The company noted that growth in the agriculture sector slowed sharply to 1.2% in 1QFY25, down from 8.1% during the SPLY. This deceleration was driven by weaker farm activity and lower overall profitability. Farmers faced a significant decline in net income across key crops, particularly wheat and rice. The impact was further compounded by rising input costs and the transition from support prices to a free market system.