Systems Limited (SYS): SYS 4QCY24E Result Preview: Improving margins to boost profitability - By AKD Research

Jan 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Systems Limited (SYS) to post NPAT of PkR2.4bn (EPS: PkR8.2) in 4QCY24 vs PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY. The result is likely to accompanied with cash payout of PkR6.5/sh.
  • We anticipate revenue to grow by 14%YoY due to the sustained momentum in the MEA and North American markets.
  • Company’s gross margins are expected to clock in at 26.2% during the quarter compared to 22.0% in SPLY. We maintain our ‘BUY’ stance on the scrip with Dec’25 TP of PkR879/sh.
SYS Limited (SYS): Eyes strong growth in the MENA region - By JS Research

Apr 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • SYS Limited (SYS) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss CY24 financial performance and outlook. On a consolidated basis, the company reported a 1.15x decline in EPS to Rs25.55, largely attributable to exchange losses. SYS also announced a stock split in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
  • SYS reported 26% YoY growth in revenue during CY24 where revenue contribution from MENA region (59% share in the revenue pie) jumped by 35% YoY led by timely expansions to exploit the growth opportunity in the region, mainly Saudi Arabia.
  • Strengthening of workforce, diversification of labour with locations in MENA through Egypt and scaling its ‘Capability Centers of Excellence’ (COEs), should enable the company to achieve 26% YoY growth in revenues (CY25E) and gradually improve gross margins by up to 5% in the next few years, as per the management guidelines.
Systems Limited (SYS): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Systems Limited posted a PAT of ~PKR 6.12Bn in CY24, down 29%YoY from ~PKR 8.56Bn in CY23, mainly due to PKR appreciation and higher retention costs. Management noted profits could have been 48% higher under historical currency trends and 10% higher with a stable exchange rate.
  • Despite the profit drop, revenue grew 20%YoY to ~PKR 38.53Bn, with 94% earned in foreign currency. Regional revenue was led by the Middle East & Africa (59%), followed by North America (21%), Pakistan (13%), Europe (4%) and Asia specific (3%), respectively.
  • Export revenue made up 90% of the total, with domestic contributions expected to remain around 10%.
Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Systems Limited (SYS): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs6.92, up by 31% YoY – Earnings lower than expectations - By Topline Reseach

Mar 24 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4Q2024 result wherein it posted a consolidated PAT of Rs2.03bn (EPS of Rs6.92) up by 31% YoY and down by 7% QoQ. The result came lower than expectations due to lower-than-expected gross margins and higher distribution costs.
  • Alongside the result SYS announced a DPS of Rs6.00 which was in-line with expectations. Company also announced a Stock Split in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
  • Gross margins for 4Q2024 clocked in at 23.6% vs 25.3% in 3Q2024 and 19.7% in 4Q2023. In 4Q2024 there is higher one-off trading revenue which has lower margins and has impacted overall average margins
Systems Limited (SYS): 4QCY24 Result Review - Earnings up 32% YoY, with MENA region at the helm - By AKD Research

Mar 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4QCY24 financial results today, wherein the company posted Profit after Tax (PAT) of PkR2.0bn (EPS: PkR6.9) vs. PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY, up 31.5%YoY. However, earnings were below our estimate, primarily due to higher than anticipated operating expenses and impairment losses. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR6.0/sh and announced a share split in a 5:1 ratio.
  • Company reported revenue of PkR19.2bn in 4QCY24, compared to PkR16.1bn in SPLY, up 19.0%YoY. The growth in topline is attributed to robust growth of 17.4%/13.6%/84.3%YoY in the MENA/North America/Europe regions, respectively.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 24.4%, up from 22.0% in 4QCY23. This increase can primarily be attributed to improvement in gross margins in North America region to 30.2% from 25.7% in 4QCY23. In contrast, MENA region saw a drop in gross margins to 26.8%, declining from 28.0% in 4QCY23.
Systems Limited (SYS): SYS 4QCY24E Result Preview: Improving margins to boost profitability - By AKD Research

Jan 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Systems Limited (SYS) to post NPAT of PkR2.4bn (EPS: PkR8.2) in 4QCY24 vs PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY. The result is likely to accompanied with cash payout of PkR6.5/sh.
  • We anticipate revenue to grow by 14%YoY due to the sustained momentum in the MEA and North American markets.
  • Company’s gross margins are expected to clock in at 26.2% during the quarter compared to 22.0% in SPLY. We maintain our ‘BUY’ stance on the scrip with Dec’25 TP of PkR879/sh.
Morning News: FBR to integrate FMCG manufacturers, wholesalers, and distributors into Digital Invoicing System – By WE Research

Jan 10 2025



  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is expanding its tax oversight by integrating Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) manufacturers, wholesalers, and distributors into the Digital Invoicing System (DIS) to curb revenue leakages. Under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Transformation Plan, around 10,000 FMCG entities will be linked to DIS, targeting key sectors like wheat flour mills, beverage companies, and food manufacturers. The initiative aims to track sales accurately, reduce tax evasion, and phase out manual processes. The FBR is also revising the Point of Sale (PoS) system, particularly for hotels and restaurants in Islamabad. In preparation for the 2025-26 budget, the FBR seeks proposals to broaden the tax base, simplify tax laws, and promote progressive taxation.
  • Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) expects to generate over Rs107 million in revenue from its inaugural direct flight to Paris on January 10, marking the resumption of the Paris route after a four-and-ahalf-year suspension due to the EU’s 2020 ban. The ban was lifted following concerns over pilot licenses and the crash of flight 8303. The route has seen strong demand, with nearly all seats on the round trip from Islamabad to Paris and vice versa sold out. PIA will operate two weekly direct flights, offering cost-effective tickets and time savings. The airline has introduced an intranet wireless entertainment system for passengers, who can access content on mobile devices, tablets, or laptop.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Fourth discovery at Spinwam-1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Apr 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a milestone fourth discovery at the Spinwam-1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 70.3mmcfd of gas and 310bpd of oil (at choke size of 64/64”). The latest discovery is anticipated to push cumulative output from the field to 127.6mmcfd of gas and 569bpd of oil.
  • We estimate Spinwam-1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR13.35/sh for MARI and PkR2.37/sh for OGDC. Notably, the incremental EPS impact from the latest find comes out to be PkR7.4/1.3 per share for MARI and OGDC, respectively.
Economy: IMF supplements EFF program with Resilience and Sustainability Facility - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The IMF team has reached SLA with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of EFF and a new 28-month arrangement of US$1.3bn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Fund recognizes Pakistan's substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite a challenging global environment.
  • Successful completion of first review would pave the way for KSE-100 to reach 165,215 by Dec’25.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
Systems Limited (SYS): 4QCY24 Result Review - Earnings up 32% YoY, with MENA region at the helm - By AKD Research

Mar 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4QCY24 financial results today, wherein the company posted Profit after Tax (PAT) of PkR2.0bn (EPS: PkR6.9) vs. PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY, up 31.5%YoY. However, earnings were below our estimate, primarily due to higher than anticipated operating expenses and impairment losses. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR6.0/sh and announced a share split in a 5:1 ratio.
  • Company reported revenue of PkR19.2bn in 4QCY24, compared to PkR16.1bn in SPLY, up 19.0%YoY. The growth in topline is attributed to robust growth of 17.4%/13.6%/84.3%YoY in the MENA/North America/Europe regions, respectively.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 24.4%, up from 22.0% in 4QCY23. This increase can primarily be attributed to improvement in gross margins in North America region to 30.2% from 25.7% in 4QCY23. In contrast, MENA region saw a drop in gross margins to 26.8%, declining from 28.0% in 4QCY23.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Second discovery at Spinwam -1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a second discovery at the Spinwam -1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 20.5mmcfd of gas and 117bpd of oil. Notably, first discovery at Spinwam -1 was announced in late Feb’25, with the latest find bringing cumulative production potential to 33.4mmcfd of gas and 137bpd of oil. We estimate Spinwam -1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR3.48/sh for MARI and PkR0.62/sh for OGDC.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) : 4QCY24 Result Review Record earnings on higher sales and improved margins - By AKD Research

Mar 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, reporting consolidated earnings of PkR13.6bn (EPS: PkR6.5), compared to PkR10.0bn (EPS: PkR4.8) in SPLY, an increase of 36%YoY. The said growth is primarily attributed to higher sales and improved gross margins. The earnings came in line with our expectations. Alongside the result, company announced a final cash dividend of PkR4.25/sh, taking the full-year dividend to PkR7.0/sh.
  • Revenue stood at PkR85.9bn, a 16%YoY increase from PkR74.0bn in SPLY. The said growth is driven by increase in retention prices across the product line, with quarterly avg. prices rising 26%/23%/9%YoY for Urea, CAN, and NP, respectively. Additionally, sales volumes for Urea, CAN, and NP increased by 1%/1%/48%YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.5% from 30.3% in SPLY, mainly due to the increase in retention prices and the availability of comparatively low-cost gas for the company’s Sadiqabad plant.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto sales continue momentum in Feb’25 - By AKD Research

Mar 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • In Feb’25, the auto sector witnessed a surge in volumes, up 5%YoY, with total industry sales reaching 14,091 units. The incline in sales was largely attributable to a 24%YoY increase in passenger car and LCVs sales.
  • Segment-wise, passenger cars with engine capacities of 1000cc & above emerged as the top-performing segment, clocking in at 4,700 units (up 19%YoY), primarily attributable to increased sales of Fortuner & IMVs.
  • Amongst the major OEMs, INDU/HCAR posted growth of 28%/35%YoY, respectively.
Economy: Subdued economic activity and low inflation justify 100bps rate cut - By AKD Research

Mar 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • We anticipate SBP to lower interest rates by 100bps due to subdued economic activity, contraction in money and declining trade numbers.
  • We project positive real interest rates to remain around 7.0% based on our 12-M forward inflation forecast that are currently standing at 1,048bps in Feb’25.
  • Monetary easing on the back of improving macroeconomic situation and IMF Extended Fund Facility would increase appeal for equities, in our view.
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