Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Jan 28 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • LUCK is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 6,724 million (EPS: PKR 22.95) in 2QFY25, reflecting a 2% QoQ increase.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 35,218 million, indicating an 18% QoQ increase.
  • We estimate gross margins at 32.02%, representing a QoQ increase of 3.2ppt but a YoY decline of 4.01ppt.
Lucky Cement Company Limited (LUCK): Cost efficiencies to support margins - By JS Research

Feb 24 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Lucky Cement Company Limited (LUCK) conducted its Corporate Briefing to discuss 2QFY25 results and outlook. On a standalone basis, the company reported an EPS of Rs24.8 for 2QFY25, up 7% YoY, driven by higher dispatches YoY (+24%). Meanwhile, on a consolidated basis, the company posted EPS of Rs73.2 in 2QFY25, up 22% YoY.
  • Management is confident that LUCK is well-positioned to withstand declining cement MRPs in the North, due to its cost efficiency measures such as investments in renewable energy capacity (103.1 MW). Additionally, its fuel cost/ton remains among the lowest in the industry following its Dec-2022 expansion.
  • The recently announced stock split is proposed to improve liquidity and increase accessibility for retail investors, avoiding a bonus issue as it would have resulted in significant taxes for investors.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1HFY25 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • Local dispatches of the industry declined by 10.4% YoY, reaching 18.1mn tons in 1HFY25 due to subdued demand, while exports saw a significant growth of 31.7% YoY. Local demand showed some improvement in 2QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22.8% QoQ. Looking ahead, the company expects demand to recover from this negative double-digit growth, hinging on factors such as decrease in interest rates. However, Ramazan and Eid factor will likely affect the sales in 2HFY25.
  • For LUCK, total dispatches increased by 8.7% YoY in 1HFY25, primarily driven by rise in exports, as the company continues to explore different export destinations. However, local dispatches declined by 14%, in line with the industry trend.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited has conducted its analyst briefing to discuss its financial result and future outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • In 1HFY25, LUCK’s local retention price stood at ~PKR16,000/ton. While export retention price for Afghanistan stood at ~PKR9,000/ton. For sea borne, retention price for clinker and cement export stood at US$31/ton and US$41/ton, respectively.
  • Company is fulfilling 55% of its total power requirement from renewable energy. Plant wise renewable power mix stands at 42%/56% for North and South.
Lucky Cement (LUCK):2QFY25 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 21 2025


Topline Securities


  • Lucky Cement (LUCK) conducted 2QFY25 analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook.
  • Commenting on Stock Split, LUCK management stated that purpose of split was to increase liquidity of the stock and make it more attractive for participants. Global indices that track Pakistani stocks also have liquidity criteria.
  • Wind power plant of 28.8MW came online in 2QFY25. After completion of this project, the total renewables capacity is close to 100MW for two local cement plants of the company. Wind, Solar and WHR are now fulfilling approximately 55% of power requirements on average
Lucky Cement Ltd. (LUCK): LUCK board approves 5-for-1 split - By AKD Research

Feb 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Lucky Cement Ltd. (LUCK), in its Board of Directors meeting held yesterday, approved a share split in the ratio of 5:1, reducing the face value from PkR10/sh to PkR2/sh. Consequently, shareholders will receive 5 shares for every 1 share held. The date of determination which will be announced after the Extraordinary General Meeting (EoGM) on March 18, 2025.
  • The share split will increase the number of outstanding shares from 293mn to 1,465mn without triggering tax implications, unlike the bonus issue. The said development is expected to enhance the scrip’s liquidity and broaden investor participation.
  • Outlook: We maintain our ‘BUY’ stance on LUCK with a Dec’25 target price of PkR1,965/sh (PKR393/sh @1,465mn sh). Our view is supported by: i) improving market share given recent expansion, ii) higher gross margins driven by optimal coal and power mix, and iii) expected recovery in portfolio businesses alongside broader economic improvement.
Lucky Cement (LUCK): LUCK announced stock split, increased share liquidity and better price discovery likely - By Topline Research

Feb 21 2025


Topline Securities


  • In a notice to the stock exchange today, Feb 21 2025, LUCK announced the board recommendation for sub-division of shares of the company.
  • The above-mentioned Stock Split will be in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
  • After the stock split, the paid-up capital of the company will be divided into 1,465mn shares of Rs2 each form current 293mn shares of Rs10 each.
Lucky Core Industries (LCI): FY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 13 2025


Topline Securities


  • Lucky Core Industries (LCI) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 1HFY25 financial result and future outlook.
  • LCI’s operating performance improved due to Pfizer portfolio integration and better margins in Polyester & Pharmaceuticals. Lower finance costs followed a policy rate reduction, while Soda Ash, Chemicals & Agri Sciences, and Animal Health faced demand challenges.
  • LCI saw a 26% YoY rise in 1HFY25 due to short-term investments, scrap sales, and gain on the sale of assets sold, but majorly a Rs550mn one-time impact due to a change in loan discounting policy per IFRS guidelines.
Lucky Core Industries Limited (LCI) : 2HFY25 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • Lucky Core Industries Limited has conducted its 2HFY25 analyst briefing to discuss its financial result and future outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • In 1HFY25, LCI revenue from pharma business was ~PKR10.4bn vs. PKR5.8bn in SPLY. The increase is attributable to deregulation of nonessential and integration of Pfizer portfolio. Additionally, the company stated that PKR3.2bn of the total PKR10.4bn revenue came from the Pfizer portfolio. The Pfizer portfolio is expected to contribute approximately PKR8-9bn on an annualized basis in FY25.
  • Regarding its pharmaceutical business, the company stated that 65% of its current portfolio consists of nonessential products. In the recently acquired Pfizer portfolio, six out of seven brands fall under the nonessential category
Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK): 2QFY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 73.17, up 22/20% YoY/QoQ - By Foundation Research

Jan 31 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 21.4Bn (EPS PKR 73.17, up 22/20% YoY/QoQ) in 2QFY25 compared to a profit of PKR 11.8Bn (EPS PKR 40.3) in 2QFY24. This brings 1HFY25 profitability to PKR 39.3Bn (EPS of PKR 134.6, up 11% YoY) against profit of PKR 35.3Bn in 1HFY24.
  • Standalone earnings were recorded at PKR 24.84/sh (up 7/11% YoY/QoQ) in 2QFY25, resulting in 1HFY25 earnings of PKR 47.24/sh, undergoing a mild increase of 1% YoY.
  • LUCK’s profitability on a standalone basis jumped 7% YoY in 2QFY25, this surge is accredited to volumetric growth of 24% YoY in overall dispatches. To highlight, LUCK exhibited an uptick in domestic dispatches (2/17% YoY/QoQ) and surge in export dispatches (86/26% YoY/QoQ). Hefty gross margins of 35.26% could be because of higher than expected retention prices (Punjab royalty disparity) along with efficient procurement of coal. The company recorded other income of PKR 3.5Bn (up 32% YoY) which further enhanced the profitability. In our view, the strong other income could be due to high dividend income and surge in income from cash & short term investments (PKR 39.1Bn as of 1QFY25, PKR 32.4Bn in 4QFY24).
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 2QFY25 Review Earnings surge on elevated gross margins & other income - By AKD Research

Jan 30 2025


AKD Securities


  • Lucky Cement Ltd. (LUCK) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting standalone earnings of PkR7.3bn (EPS: PkR24.8), up 7%YoY from PkR6.8bn (EPS: PkR23.1) in SPLY. Earnings were above our expectations due to higher-than-expected gross margins and other income. On a consolidated basis, profitability improved to PkR21.4bn (EPS: PkR73.2), up 22%YoY.
  • Revenue increased by 13%YoY to PkR34.5bn in 2QFY25 from PkR30.5bn in SPLY. The said topline growth is primarily attributed to 83%/2%YoY rise in export and local dispatches, respectively.
  • Gross margins slightly contracted to 35.3% from 36.0% in SPLY, mainly due to a higher proportion of low-margin exports in the total sales mix. However, gross margins exceeded our expectations, possibly due to lower-than-anticipated fuel costs.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research

Apr 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
  • Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
  • MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.
Economy: Trade Tensions Trigger a Global Sell-Off - By AHCML Research

Apr 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Global stock markets tumbled after a surprise move by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced new tariffs on imports, sparking fresh fears of a trade war. Countries like China responded with their own import duties, intensifying global tensions. Investors are now worried that escalating trade barriers could hurt global growth, profits, and jobs. Stock markets across Asia, Europe, and U.S. futures have all dropped sharply, as fear and uncertainty take the lead over company fundamentals. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for signs of de-escalation from world leaders.
  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recently faced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating global trade tensions and domestic economic factors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plummeted over 5%, triggering a temporary halt in trading. This sharp decline was largely a reaction to the U.S. government's implementation of new tariffs on imports, which unsettled global markets and prompted widespread investor concern.
  • The imposition of these tariffs has raised fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting investor sentiment worldwide. Pakistan, facing a steep 29% tariff on its exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable. In response, the Pakistani government announced plans to send a delegation to Washington to negotiate relief from these tariffs.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: Pakistan’s Current Account Cumulative surplus overshadows the monthly deficit - By AHCML Research

Mar 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 12mn in Feb’25 compared to deficit of USD 399mn in Jan’25. Moreover, CA balance was in surplus of USD 71mn in Feb’24.
  • Exports of goods reduced by 13% MoM to USD 2,593mn in Feb’25, similarly, imports reduced by 8% MoM to USD 5,023mn, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 2,430mn, down by a 1% MoM.
  • Exports of services grew by a meagre 2% MoM, reaching USD 709mn, while imports of services reduced by 1% MoM to USD 1,013mn, reducing the deficit on balance of services to USD 304mn.
Economy: SBP Keeps Benchmark Rate at 12%, Balancing Growth and External Account Stability - By AHCML Research

Mar 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% in the current monetary policy review. This decision reflects a careful balance in response to evolving economic conditions, particularly in light of inflation, external sector challenges, and growing signs of economic recovery.
  • The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explained that inflation in February 2025 came in lower than anticipated, largely due to a drop in both food and energy prices. However, the Committee cautioned that while inflation has eased, there are still risks related to the volatility in these prices. Core inflation, in particular, remains stubbornly high, which means any rebound in food and energy prices could reverse the current downward trend in overall inflation.
  • Despite the inflation concerns, economic activity has picked up, as seen in indicators like automobile sales, cement consumption, and the growth in private sector credit.
Cement: Results review 2QFY25: PAT up by 54% YoY - By AHCML Research

Mar 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The 2QFY25 financial results of 15 listed cement companies reflected strong growth in profitability, driven by higher dispatches, improved margins, and lower finance costs. The sector reported a cumulative PAT of PKR 34,749 million, up 54% YoY and 46% QoQ.
  • Net sales stood at PKR 196,657 million, up 21% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by a 23% QoQ increase in total dispatches.
  • Gross margins recorded at 33%, up 3ppt QoQ and 5ppt YoY, primarily due to reduction in international coal prices.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Oil Marketing Companies: Exploration Sector Performance 2QFY25 -- By AHCML Research

Mar 5 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The exploration sector revealed a mixed performance during 2QFY25, companies has posted net sales and PAT of ~PKR 217.32bn and ~PKR 87.51bn in 2QFY25, down by 13.23% YoY and 37.33% YoY, respectively. major companies include OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
  • The companies’ profitability was negatively impacted by lower realized prices, forced curtailment by SNGPL and UPL and absence of tax rebate which was in SPLY.
  • As the negative price variance stems from the PKR appreciation against the USD, averaging PKR 278/USD in 2QFY25 versus PKR 287/USD in the corresponding period, alongside a decline in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 87/bbl to USD 76/bbl over the same timeframe.
Pakistan Banks: Performance CY’24: Rate cut Headwinds Hindered the Headings - By AHCML Research

Mar 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The combined profit after tax of the top five banks—HBL, UBL, NBP, MCB, and ABL— deteriorated by 5.5%YoY to PKR82bn in 4QCY24, compared to PKR87bn in 4QCY23.
  • In 2024, Pakistan’s banking sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching historic milestones despite facing economic headwinds. UBL stood firm, delivering an impressive profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 75.78 billion, a testament to its strength in a challenging year. However, the journey wasn’t without hurdles—banks had to contend with a sharp 1,000 basis points cut in the policy rate, which put pressure on net interest margins and profitability.
  • In CY’24, Net Interest Income (NII) declined by approximately 6.6%YoY albeit witnessed an uptick of 15% on QoQ basis. The drop was primarily driven by the cuts in the policy rate and declining yields on investment assets. However, banks strategically shifted their focus to nonfunded income sources, which showed a 48% increase in 4QCY’24 compared to the same period last year (SPLY), a notable 68% rise on quarterly basis, and a 61.6%YoY growth in CY’24.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
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