JDW Sugar Mills Limited (JDWS): CORPORATE BRIEFING NOTES - BY Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • JDW Sugar Mills Limited achieved earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 225.2 in SY24, marking a substantial increase compared to PKR 37.1 in SY23.
  • 0In 9MSY24, the company reported an EPS of PKR 144.9, a significant improvement from PKR 25.3 recorded during the same period last year (SPLY).
  • The company’s corporate farms contribute 7-10% of the group’s total annual sugarcane requirement.
JDW Sugar Mills Limited (JDWS): CORPORATE BRIEFING NOTES - BY Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • JDW Sugar Mills Limited achieved earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 225.2 in SY24, marking a substantial increase compared to PKR 37.1 in SY23.
  • 0In 9MSY24, the company reported an EPS of PKR 144.9, a significant improvement from PKR 25.3 recorded during the same period last year (SPLY).
  • The company’s corporate farms contribute 7-10% of the group’s total annual sugarcane requirement.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Chashma Sugar Mills Limited (CHAS): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Mar 19 2025



  • CHAS reported a net loss of PKR 2.64 billion (LPS: PKR 91.92) in SY24, compared to a net profit of PKR 1.70 billion (EPS: PKR 59.22) in the previous year. The loss was primarily driven by higher sugarcane prices and increased finance costs due to higher carryover stock and a lower recovery rate.
  • In 1QSY25, CHAS crushed 1,484,965 MT of sugarcane, producing 144,654 MT of sugar and 9,170 MT of ethanol. The crushing season concluded on March 3, 2025. Gross profit declined to PKR 2.22 billion, impacted by elevated sugarcane prices in SY24.
  • For SY24, CHAS produced 171,591 MT of sugar (SY23: 211,871 MT) and crushed 1,726,610 MT of sugarcane (SY23: 1,963,169 MT), with a recovery rate of 9.9% (SY23: 10.8%). Molasses consumption stood at 176,201 MT (SY23: 173,139 MT), while molasses production reached 34,443 MT (SY23: 33,899 MT) with a recovery rate of 19.55% (SY23: 19.58%).
Faran Sugar Mills Limited (FRSM): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Feb 26 2025



  • In SY24, FRSM reported a net loss of PKR 1.53 billion (LPS: PKR 61.30), compared to the previous year's net profit of PKR 1.22 billion (EPS: PKR 48.79).
  • Management reported that sugar prices remained depressed throughout the year due to the imposition of FED and an increase in WHT. Similarly, ethanol prices and demand in international markets remained subdued, keeping molasses prices under pressure.
  • In SY24, USC withheld PKR 529 million in payments and halted further lifting of goods worth PKR 579 million, causing liquidity constraints and higher finance costs. However, most payments were later received, except for bid money. The company has also recovered a major portion of overdue payments from USC, amounting to over PKR 400 million.
Loads Limited (LOADS): The Year of Alpha Loads Limited: Back on Track? - By Chase Research

Feb 6 2025



  • We are initiating coverage on Loads Limited (LOADS) with a Dec-25 fair value estimate of PKR 29.17 per share, derived using a discounted cashflow model. At its current price, the stock offers a compelling 55% upside potential. It is currently trading at a FY26 P/E of 4.7x. BUY.
  • Our investment thesis is driven by several compelling factors:
  • SBP, driven by declining inflation, is expected to boost auto sales, especially in the sub-1000cc segment. LOADS, as a key parts supplier to OEMs in this category, is wellpositioned to benefit disproportionately from this recovery.
JDW Sugar Mills Limited (JDWS): CORPORATE BRIEFING NOTES - BY Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • JDW Sugar Mills Limited achieved earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 225.2 in SY24, marking a substantial increase compared to PKR 37.1 in SY23.
  • 0In 9MSY24, the company reported an EPS of PKR 144.9, a significant improvement from PKR 25.3 recorded during the same period last year (SPLY).
  • The company’s corporate farms contribute 7-10% of the group’s total annual sugarcane requirement.
Noon Sugar Mills Limited (NONS): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 28 2025



  • In FY24, Noon Sugar Mills Limited (NONS) reported a net loss of PKR 619.45 million (LPS: PKR 37.50), a significant decline from the net profit of PKR 419.31 million (EPS: PKR 25.39) recorded in FY23. The loss was attributed to a higher sugarcane price of PKR 470 per maund and volatility in the USD-PKR exchange rate, as molasses was procured at elevated rates before the exchange rate reversed, compounding the losses.
  • The company crushed 712,164 M.Tons of sugarcane in FY24, compared to 807,367 M.Tons in FY23. Despite the reduction, NONS achieved its highest-ever average sucrose recovery of 10.30%, ranking second or third in Punjab for FY24. Sugar production stood at 73,597 M.Tons, slightly lower than the 75,717 M.Tons produced in FY23. Alcohol production also declined to 13,429 M.Tons in FY24 from 18,334 M.Tons in FY23.
  • Total assets increased significantly to PKR 9.08 billion in FY24, up from PKR 6.17 billion in FY23, primarily due to major capital expenditures, including the acquisition of a 100 M.Tons boiler from HMC and a 10MW turbine. The management anticipates improved fuel and cost efficiency regarding bagasse usage.
Chenab Limited (CHBL): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 27 2025



  • In FY24, Chenab Limited (CHBL) reported a net loss of PKR 326.21 million (LPS: PKR 2.84) compared to a net loss of PKR 405.14 million (LPS: PKR 3.52) in the SPLY. In 1QFY25, the company recorded a net loss of PKR 111.82 million (LPS: PKR 0.97), higher than the net loss of PKR 45.03 million (LPS: PKR 0.39) in the SPLY.
  • The management disclosed that Chenab Limited is operating at 25% unit utilization. To optimize production capacity, the company is engaged in toll manufacturing of fabrics for the local market.
  • Gross profit for FY24 stood at PKR 10.87 million, impacted by higher fixed costs. The increase in freight costs, driven by the Red Sea crisis, further escalated selling and distribution expenses.
Annual Strategy: Market Strategy 2025 Inflation likely to remain in single digits for most of CY2025 – By Chase Research

Dec 20 2024



  • Inflation expected to remain in single digits for most of CY2025.
  • Central Bank to continue easing. We consider single digit interest rates a high possibility in 2025.
  • Current Account should not present a challenge as improved remittances, recovering exports and administrative measures to keep balance in check.
  • Pakistan Credit Ratings could improve in 2025 unlocking flows and strengthening PKR.
Emco Industries Limited (EMCO): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Dec 13 2024



  • Emco Industries reported net sales of PKR 4,192 million for FY24, reflecting an 18% year-over-year (YoY) increase compared to PKR 3,546 million in FY23. However, 1QFY25 sales sharply declined by 40% YoY to PKR 756 million, down from PKR 1,260 million in 1QFY24, due slowdown in demand.
  • Gross profit grew 17% YoY to PKR 1,124 million, maintaining a stable gross margin of 27%. Gross profit plummeted by 83% to PKR 70 million. This led to a significant contraction in the gross margin to 9%, from 32% in 1QFY24.
  • EPS declined by 25% YoY to PKR 6.26 in FY24 from PKR 8.37 in FY23, while no dividends were declared for the year, compared to a payout of PKR 0.50 per share in the prior period. In 1QFY25, EPS turned negative at PKR -1.96, reflecting the net loss during the quarter.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Dec 5 2024



  • Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM) reported a net profit of PKR 2.66 billion (EPS: PKR 1.76) in 9MCY24. This represents a 45% decline from a net profit of PKR 4.84 billion (EPS: PKR 3.20) in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • Revenue for 9MCY24 increased by 43% year-on-year to PKR 88.98 billion, compared to PKR 62.14 billion in 9MCY23. The trading of Acetic Acid contributed gross profit of PKR 358 million during 9MCY24. The price of Acetic Acid ranged between $450 and $500 per ton during the period.
  • LOTCHEM is the sole producer of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in Pakistan, with an annual production capacity of 500 KT. Approximately 40% of the company’s sales are made to Novatex Limited.
Jubilee General Insurance Limited (JGICL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Nov 29 2024



  • Jubilee General Insurance Limited (JGICL) reported a net profit of PKR 2.58 billion (EPS: PKR 13.00) in 9MCY24, a significant increase from PKR 1.96 billion (EPS: PKR 9.90) in 9MCY23.
  • Net insurance premium for 9MCY24 rose by 6% year-on-year to PKR 5.54 billion compared to PKR 5.24 billion in the corresponding period last year. The portfolio mix was comprised of fire at 43%, miscellaneous at 19%, accident and health at 14%, motor at 12%, marine at 8%, and liability at 4%.
  • Management reported that all business lines contributed to topline growth, alongside an expansion in the client base. However, motor and health business segments faced a decline, attributed to the negative impact of Pakistan's struggling auto industry. The miscellaneous category showed significant growth due to the introduction of valueadded products.
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