Morning News: $20b WB lending may be insufficient - By Vector Research

Jan 29 2025


Vector Securities


  • The World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, emphasised on Tuesday that the $20 billion lending will be insufficient to achieve the 10 years' development goals, and Pakistan will have to mobilise more resources to overcome its challenges.
  • Climate adaptation, mitigation; Country needs $348bn by 2030: Aurangzeb Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb has said Pakistan needs a staggering $348 billion by 2030 to meet its climate adaptation and mitigation goals.
  • Minister for Finance Mohammad Aurangzeb made it clear on Tuesday that the government would stick to the commitments made with the IMF under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). He also hinted that the tax burden on salaried class might be rationalised in the coming budget.

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Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: Pak-IMF technical-level talks next week - By Vector Research

Apr 14 2025


Vector Securities


  • The technical-level talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the federal budget for the fiscal year 2025-26 are expected to begin next week, according to sources.
  • The government is considering cutting down the corporate tax rate and providing tax reliefs on other heads in the upcoming budget for the financial year 2025-26. It wants to do this by using the fiscal space made available in the wake of a reduction in international oil prices and through the significant drop of 10-percentage points in the key interest rate by the central bank since June-2024 to 12% at present.
  • Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday said that the upcoming federal budget will bring relief for salaried individuals and further reductions in electricity costs. The finance minister announced that a detailed relief plan for the salaried class has been finalised and will be shared with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By Vector Research

Apr 11 2025


Vector Securities


  • A technical team of the IMF will be visiting Pakistan from next week for holding parleys with the FBR high-ups to discuss taxation proposals for the upcoming budget 2025-26.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday blocked a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters due to a possible reaction from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 
  • The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in coordination with the Ministry of Climate Change and Envi-ronmental Coordination (MoCC&EC) and the Public-Private Partnership Authority (P3A), has identified five preliminary bankable projects valued at over USD 1 billion.
Morning News: Trillions of dollars in minerals can free Pakistan from IMF dependence: PM Shehbaz - By Vector Research

Apr 9 2025


Vector Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited both local and foreign investors to capitalise on Pakistan's vast mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Speaking at the two-day Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025 (PMIF25) in Islamabad on Tuesday, the prime minister expressed optimism that utilising these resources would enable Pakistan to reduce its dependency on global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold is set to raise $3 billion in international financing for the multi-billion-dollar Reko Diq Copper & Gold Project in Balochistan. Barrick’s President and CEO Mark Bristow told Dawn on Tuesday that a financing pact with the World Bank and its commercial arm International Finance Corporation (IFC) was expected to be signed by mid-year and final financing packages by third quarter this year for $650 million. “We expect to drawdown about $500m by 4th quarter,” he said.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday welcomed a $2 billion investment from global shipping giant AP Moller – Maersk, hailing it as a significant boost to Pakistan’s maritime sector. During a meeting with Robert Maersk, chairman of the board of directors at AP Moller – Maersk, he directed authorities to fast-track the conversion of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) signed with the company last year into formal agreements.
Morning News: Pakistan bondssink over 13 cents on Trump tariff pressure - By Vector Research

Apr 8 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan bonds fell more than 13 cents in the frontier market on Monday, as US President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing away from sweeping tariffs. It was the single biggest decline for Pakistan bonds across many maturities since Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine shook markets in early 2022.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Pervaiz Malik has announced that the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) would commence today (Tuesday) for two days, April 8–9, to highlight the country’s vast mineral potential. At the forum, the government would showcase Pakistan’s mineral-rich landscape, spanning approximately 600,000 square kilometers.
  • As the government considers its options, the private sector views the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs as a strategic manoeuvre to compel Islamabad to engage in discussions for better access to the Pakistani market. The tariffs have also impacted Pakistan’s three main competitors in the US market—India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. However, New Delhi and Hanoi have already prepared in advance, while Pakistan’s commerce ministry remains in the early stages of discussions.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: Key infrastructure projects; Azerbaijan keen to invest $2bn, Senate panel told - By Vector Research

Mar 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Senate Standing Committee on Planning, Development and Special Initiatives was informed that Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to invest $2 billion in Pakistan, potentially impacting key infrastructure projects. 
  • In a step to fulfill another condition set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has decided to operationalise the newly established Tax Policy Office by appointing a Director General and five Directors. The Ministry of Finance has invited applications from eligible candidates for these positions.
  • The rupee weakened slightly on Monday as the uncertainty over the finalisation of the staff-level agreement (SLA) with the International Monetary Fund for the second $1 billion tranche of the $7 billion bailout weighed on the local currency.
Morning News: Quarterly GDP growth figures to be released next week - By Vector Research

Mar 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In a bid to meet an IMF condition, the government is all set to release quarterly GDP growth rate figures for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year next week amid declining trends in industrial sector. The real GDP growth will now mainly rely on the services sector and to some extent on the neglected agriculture sector.
  • Pakistan exported a record 933,000 tonnes of furnace oil in the first eight months of the current financial year, as the country’s power sector continues to phase out its use due to high costs and environmental concerns. According to oil sector data, fuel oil exports, however, plummeted to 39,000 tonnes in February, compared to 190,000 tonnes in January.Industry sources attributed the lower exports to an accumulation of furnace oil in local refineries, as buyers prefer to purchase in bulk.
Morning News: IMF says making progress on Pakistan review, new climate loan - By Vector Research

Mar 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have so far been unable to strike a staff-level agreement. However, the IMF staff stated that both sides made significant progress toward reaching an agreement under the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Despite claims by Pakistani authorities of moving toward a broader agreement with the IMF, frequent changes by policymakers ultimately proved to be stumbling blocks, leading to the failure to finalise a staff-level agreement for the time being.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to scrap the Tajir Dost Scheme (TDS) after the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) shared data indicating that tax collections from retailers, wholesalers, and Associations of Persons (AOPs) have far exceeded the Rs50 billion target initially envisaged under the scheme.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed an incentive scheme for overseas Pakistanis to repatriate their declared assets worth approximately $30 billion. This was disclosed by Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) for Industries and Production.