Economy: Jan-2025: Taking a breather after a long-race - By JS Research
Feb 3 2025
JS Global Capital
- PSX went through consolidation during the month of January, market hit a record high level of 117.5k points, but could not manage to sustain due to profit-taking/ redemptions by banks/mutual funds. PSX reported 0.8% MoM decline to 114k points in Jan-2025. Mutual funds broke a 4-month consecutive streak of inflows and became net sellers in the market with an outflow of ~US$12.3mn. Foreigners remained net seller since Sep-2024, taking 5-month cumulative net outflow to US$235mn. Trading volumes slashed by almost half in terms of shares traded (-46% MoM) and 38% MoM in terms of value.
- We also witnessed mixed trend in stock prices as 4QCY24 results announcement began. FFC’s stock price came down from its high during the month owing to below expected earnings, however, resumption of decent cash payout kept the stock price in positive territory (+7% MoM). This surge in FFC also fared well for the index in terms of partially off-setting the impact of MoM dip in key energy sector stocks (OGDC/PPL/PSO/MARI fell by 9%/12%/16%/18% during the month).
- Most Asian markets (China dropped 3%) closed in red zone, as the newly elected US President Trump threatened and later imposed a 10% hike in trade tariff on China. International oil prices (WTI) also corrected from the peak seen in mid-January (US$80/bbl) and are now stable ~US$73/bbl (+1% MoM), as the president intended to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude exporters to the US, effective from Feb-2025. Domestic petrol prices (MS) also witnessed Rs4/ltr or 2% hike during the month.
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): Result Review: MCB 1QCY25 EPS Rs11.7, DPS Rs9 - By Sherman Research
Apr 23 2025
Sherman Securities
- MCB Bank Limited (MCB) announced 1QCY25 results today wherein the bank posted an unconsolidated net earnings of Rs13.8bn (EPS Rs11.7) down 17%YoY. The decrease in earnings is primarily attributed to a decline in interest income.
- The bank announced a cash dividend of Rs9 per share in 1QCY25.
- MCB’s interest earned clocked in at Rs69.8bn (down 22%YoY), while interest expense for the period stood at Rs34.7bn (down 32%YoY). As a result, NII declined to Rs35.2bn, (down 8%YoY).
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): 1QCY25 EPS arrives at PKR 12.4; PAT down 17%YoY/ up 39%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 23 2025
Taurus Securities
- 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 12.4. 1QCY25 PAT down 17%YoY – in line with expectations. MCB also announced a DPS of PKR 9.00.
- Net Interest Income (NII): Down 8%YoY/1%QoQ driven by pressure on margins on the back of lower yields on the asset side following reduction in interest rates, offset by lower interest expenses due to decrease in the cost of funds on account of lower interest rates and the revised MDR regime going into effect from Jan’25.
- Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 9%YoY. But fell 15% on a sequential basis mainly due to the almost complete absence of capital gains during the quarter and 25%QoQ reduction in other income
Oil and Gas Exploration: 3QFY25E Result Preview: Lower production to indicate earnings decline - By AKD Research
Apr 23 2025
AKD Securities
- We expect E&P sector earnings to decline by 14%YoY during 3QFY25, on the back of i) lower hydrocarbon production due to supply curtailments, ii) lower oil and wellhead gas prices, and iii) one dry well during the quarter.
- Arab Light prices contracted by 7%YoY, averaging US$78.3/bbl during the quarter, driven by weakening global demand.
- Improving gas collection ratios in-light of sharp tariff hikes during past 24 months, with average consumer tariffs, up 3x since Jun’22, are anticipated to drive a resurgence in E&P capex activity moving forward
Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF): Result Review: MLCF 3QFY25 EPS Rs2.7 - By Sherman Research
Apr 23 2025
Sherman Securities
- Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.8bn (EPS Rs2.7) as compared to earnings of Rs1.5bn (EPS of Rs1.4) during the same period last year, up by 86%YoY. The result came above our estimate mainly due to lower effective taxation during the quarter.
- During 3QFY25, MLCF’s topline clocked in at Rs16.6bn, up by 4%YoY. Despite the decline in volumetric sales (down 9%YoY), higher topline is driven by better retention prices during the period.
- MLCF’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 3QFY25 as compared to 30% during the last year. This elevated gross margin is due to 1) Improved retention prices 2) Lower coal cost and 3) Efficient coal mix.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings beat expectation on lower tax - By IIS Research
Apr 23 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 2.8bn (EPS: PKR 2.64) compared to PKR 1.5bn (EPS: PKR 1.44) in the same period last year, reflecting a 2x YoY increase. This strong performance was driven by improved gross margins and a lower effective tax rate.
- The company’s topline grew by 4% YoY to PKR 16.6bn, mainly due to higher bag prices. However, revenue declined by 13% QoQ, owing to a 10% drop in total dispatches and a 5% QoQ decline in prices.
- Gross margins stood at 36% compared to 30% in the same period last year, benefiting from an efficient fuel mix, increased use of alternative fuels and a decline in coal prices. On a QoQ basis, it declined by 400 bps.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 3QFY25 Result Review — Higher prices and lower taxation lift earnings - By AKD Research
Apr 23 2025
AKD Securities
- Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 financial results, posting consolidated earnings of PkR2.8bn (EPS: PkR2.67), up 86%YoY compared to PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR1.44) in SPLY. Earnings came in above our expectations, primarily due to higher-thanexpected revenue and a lower taxation charge.
- Revenue clocked in at PkR16.6bn, an increase of 4%YoY from PkR16.0bn in SPLY, supported by 5%YoY rise in company offtakes. Notably, revenue exceeded expectations, possibly due to higher-than-anticipated sales of ‘hdPutty’.
- Gross margins improved by 5.6ppt YoY to 35.5%, driven by elevated cement prices and lower coal costs
Habib Metropolitan Bank Limited (HMB): 1QCY25 EPS arrives at PKR 5.8; PAT up 2%YoY/2%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 23 2025
Taurus Securities
- 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 5.8. 1QCY25 PAT up 2%YoY. HMB also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.50/sh.
- Net Interest Income (NII): Up 8%YoY. However, fell 14% on a QoQ basis, wherein the decrease in interest expenses (due to lower cost of funds) was offset by a larger drop in yields on the assets side owing to re-pricings amid lower interest rates.
- Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 46%YoY. But fell 14% on a sequential basis, mainly due to 74%QoQ drop in capital gains, along with substantial decrease in other income. Fee income also fell 4% compared to the previous quarter
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 Consolidated EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.7, PAT down 25%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 23 2025
Taurus Securities
- 3QFY25 (Consolidated) – EPS: PKR 2.7, PAT: ~PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ – in line with our expectations.
- MLCF’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 16.6Bn in 3QFY25, down 13%QoQ due to decrease in overall dispatches by 6%QoQ (Domestic and Export dispatches plunged by 2% and 61%, respectively). Gross margin hovered at ~35%, down 5pptsQoQ mainly due to lower overall retail prices in the North Region and higher cost of production. Distribution and Admin expenses fell by 26%QoQ and 20%QoQ, respectively. 3QFY25 PAT arrived at PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ mainly due to lower dispatches compared to the previous quarter. Lastly, the Company did not announce a cash dividend for the quarter.
Maple Leaf Cement Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR2.67 – Above expectation - By Insight Research
Apr 23 2025
Insight Securities
- Maple Leaf cement has announced its 3QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR2.8bn (EPS: PKR2.7) vs. PAT of PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR1.4) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to lower effective tax rate.
- In 3QFY25, revenue increased by 4% YoY mainly due to higher volumetric sales and better retention price. While on QoQ, same is down by 13% amid lower offtakes and retention price.
- Gross margins of the company clocked in at 35%, up by ~5.5ppts YoY, due to decline in coal prices and reliance on cheaper fuel mix. While on sequential basis, same is down by ~4.7ppts due to lower retention prices.
Autos: Result Preview: Stronger profits, brighter outlook - By AKD Research
Apr 22 2025
AKD Securities
- INDU 3QFY25E earnings to clock in at PkR5.7bn (EPS: PkR72.8): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR5.7bn (EPS: PkR72.8) in 3QFY25E compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR56.6), a 29% YoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 40%YoY to 9,077 units compared to 6,503 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown last year. Topline is anticipated to rise by 31%YoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales for the whole quarter. Moreover, gross margins are expected to clock in at 14.5%, remaining largely flat YoY. With regards to opex, decline in warranty claims associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 58%YoY decrease in operating expenses. Overall, 9MFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR199.5/sh, up 67%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR44.0/sh, bringing the 9MFY25 dividend to PkR120.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
- HCAR – 4QMY25E earnings to clock in at PkR1.1bn (EPS: PkR7.92): We expect HCAR’s earnings to clock in at PkR1.1bn (EPS: PkR7.92) vs. PkR1.4bn (EPS: PkR9.60) in SPLY, a decline of 17%YoY. The said decrease in profitability is due to one-off tax reversal of PkR618mn in 4QMY24. However, total sales volume during the quarter increased by 12%YoY to 5,653 units in 4QMY25. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 7%YoY to PkR26.8bn (vs. PkR24.9bn in 4QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to improve to 9.8%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 15.3%/15.0%YoY, respectively, and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, finance cost is expected to decline by 92%YoY amid decline in total outstanding debt and declining financing rates. Overall, earnings for MY25 are anticipated to decline by 8%YoY due to aforementioned tax reversal in 4QMY24. Moreover, we anticipate HCAR to announce a final dividend of PkR6.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ stance on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.
Economy: Jan-2025: Taking a breather after a long-race - By JS Research
Feb 3 2025
JS Global Capital
- PSX went through consolidation during the month of January, market hit a record high level of 117.5k points, but could not manage to sustain due to profit-taking/ redemptions by banks/mutual funds. PSX reported 0.8% MoM decline to 114k points in Jan-2025. Mutual funds broke a 4-month consecutive streak of inflows and became net sellers in the market with an outflow of ~US$12.3mn. Foreigners remained net seller since Sep-2024, taking 5-month cumulative net outflow to US$235mn. Trading volumes slashed by almost half in terms of shares traded (-46% MoM) and 38% MoM in terms of value.
- We also witnessed mixed trend in stock prices as 4QCY24 results announcement began. FFC’s stock price came down from its high during the month owing to below expected earnings, however, resumption of decent cash payout kept the stock price in positive territory (+7% MoM). This surge in FFC also fared well for the index in terms of partially off-setting the impact of MoM dip in key energy sector stocks (OGDC/PPL/PSO/MARI fell by 9%/12%/16%/18% during the month).
- Most Asian markets (China dropped 3%) closed in red zone, as the newly elected US President Trump threatened and later imposed a 10% hike in trade tariff on China. International oil prices (WTI) also corrected from the peak seen in mid-January (US$80/bbl) and are now stable ~US$73/bbl (+1% MoM), as the president intended to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude exporters to the US, effective from Feb-2025. Domestic petrol prices (MS) also witnessed Rs4/ltr or 2% hike during the month.