Economy: CPI for Jan’25 surges to 2.4%YoY/0.20%MoM - By AHCML Research

Feb 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The CPI for Jan’25 indicates a notable slowdown in inflation across key categories on a yearly basis, signalling a significant easing of price pressures compared to the previous year
  • CPI dropped to 2.4% in Jan’25 from 4.1% in Dec’24 and a staggering 28.3% in Jan’24. Similarly, urban CPI inflation decreased to 2.7%, while rural CPI inflation fell to 1.9%. This broad-based decline reflects improved supply chains, effective monetary policies, and favourable base effects. On Monthly it increases 0.2%, suggesting slowdown in the pace of inflation.
  • Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with significant increases in chicken (35.26%), pulse moong (5.43%), and fresh fruits (5.01%), while staples such as potatoes, tomatoes, and onions saw sharp declines. Non-food categories, including medical tests (5.36%) and solid fuel (2.51%), also experienced price hikes, indicating persistent cost pressures in essential services. On the other hand, decreases in electricity charges and motor fuel prices provided some relief to consumers.

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: Undefined variable: share_research

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research

Apr 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
  • Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
  • MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.
Economy: Trade Tensions Trigger a Global Sell-Off - By AHCML Research

Apr 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Global stock markets tumbled after a surprise move by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced new tariffs on imports, sparking fresh fears of a trade war. Countries like China responded with their own import duties, intensifying global tensions. Investors are now worried that escalating trade barriers could hurt global growth, profits, and jobs. Stock markets across Asia, Europe, and U.S. futures have all dropped sharply, as fear and uncertainty take the lead over company fundamentals. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for signs of de-escalation from world leaders.
  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recently faced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating global trade tensions and domestic economic factors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plummeted over 5%, triggering a temporary halt in trading. This sharp decline was largely a reaction to the U.S. government's implementation of new tariffs on imports, which unsettled global markets and prompted widespread investor concern.
  • The imposition of these tariffs has raised fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting investor sentiment worldwide. Pakistan, facing a steep 29% tariff on its exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable. In response, the Pakistani government announced plans to send a delegation to Washington to negotiate relief from these tariffs.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: Pakistan’s Current Account Cumulative surplus overshadows the monthly deficit - By AHCML Research

Mar 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 12mn in Feb’25 compared to deficit of USD 399mn in Jan’25. Moreover, CA balance was in surplus of USD 71mn in Feb’24.
  • Exports of goods reduced by 13% MoM to USD 2,593mn in Feb’25, similarly, imports reduced by 8% MoM to USD 5,023mn, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 2,430mn, down by a 1% MoM.
  • Exports of services grew by a meagre 2% MoM, reaching USD 709mn, while imports of services reduced by 1% MoM to USD 1,013mn, reducing the deficit on balance of services to USD 304mn.
Economy: SBP Keeps Benchmark Rate at 12%, Balancing Growth and External Account Stability - By AHCML Research

Mar 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% in the current monetary policy review. This decision reflects a careful balance in response to evolving economic conditions, particularly in light of inflation, external sector challenges, and growing signs of economic recovery.
  • The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explained that inflation in February 2025 came in lower than anticipated, largely due to a drop in both food and energy prices. However, the Committee cautioned that while inflation has eased, there are still risks related to the volatility in these prices. Core inflation, in particular, remains stubbornly high, which means any rebound in food and energy prices could reverse the current downward trend in overall inflation.
  • Despite the inflation concerns, economic activity has picked up, as seen in indicators like automobile sales, cement consumption, and the growth in private sector credit.
Cement: Results review 2QFY25: PAT up by 54% YoY - By AHCML Research

Mar 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The 2QFY25 financial results of 15 listed cement companies reflected strong growth in profitability, driven by higher dispatches, improved margins, and lower finance costs. The sector reported a cumulative PAT of PKR 34,749 million, up 54% YoY and 46% QoQ.
  • Net sales stood at PKR 196,657 million, up 21% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by a 23% QoQ increase in total dispatches.
  • Gross margins recorded at 33%, up 3ppt QoQ and 5ppt YoY, primarily due to reduction in international coal prices.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Oil Marketing Companies: Exploration Sector Performance 2QFY25 -- By AHCML Research

Mar 5 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The exploration sector revealed a mixed performance during 2QFY25, companies has posted net sales and PAT of ~PKR 217.32bn and ~PKR 87.51bn in 2QFY25, down by 13.23% YoY and 37.33% YoY, respectively. major companies include OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
  • The companies’ profitability was negatively impacted by lower realized prices, forced curtailment by SNGPL and UPL and absence of tax rebate which was in SPLY.
  • As the negative price variance stems from the PKR appreciation against the USD, averaging PKR 278/USD in 2QFY25 versus PKR 287/USD in the corresponding period, alongside a decline in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 87/bbl to USD 76/bbl over the same timeframe.
Pakistan Banks: Performance CY’24: Rate cut Headwinds Hindered the Headings - By AHCML Research

Mar 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The combined profit after tax of the top five banks—HBL, UBL, NBP, MCB, and ABL— deteriorated by 5.5%YoY to PKR82bn in 4QCY24, compared to PKR87bn in 4QCY23.
  • In 2024, Pakistan’s banking sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching historic milestones despite facing economic headwinds. UBL stood firm, delivering an impressive profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 75.78 billion, a testament to its strength in a challenging year. However, the journey wasn’t without hurdles—banks had to contend with a sharp 1,000 basis points cut in the policy rate, which put pressure on net interest margins and profitability.
  • In CY’24, Net Interest Income (NII) declined by approximately 6.6%YoY albeit witnessed an uptick of 15% on QoQ basis. The drop was primarily driven by the cuts in the policy rate and declining yields on investment assets. However, banks strategically shifted their focus to nonfunded income sources, which showed a 48% increase in 4QCY’24 compared to the same period last year (SPLY), a notable 68% rise on quarterly basis, and a 61.6%YoY growth in CY’24.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.