Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • To recall, FFC posted its CY24 results for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The company demonstrated its financial performance in CY24 post merger, with equity and reserves rising to PKR 132 billion (vs. PKR 62 billion SPLY), long term investments reaching PKR 77 billion (vs. PKR 49 billion SPLY), short term investments increasing to PKR 216 billion (vs. PKR 96 billion SPLY), and property, plant & equipment expanding to PKR 58 billion (vs. PKR 40 billion SPLY). However, as a result of the merger, audit adjustments related to receivables and other items in 4QCY24 impacted profitability, leading to lower earnings than anticipated.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited has conducted its CY24 analyst briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • FFC has posted PAT of PKR64.7bn (EPS: PKR45.5) in CY24 vs. PKR29.7bn (EPS: PKR23.32) in SPLY, amid higher offtakes coupled with increase in product prices. Additionally, the CY24 income statement includes two quarters of FFBL's financials. Along with the result, company has also announced dividend of PKR36.5/sh in CY24 vs. PKR15.5/sh in SPLY.
  • On lower gross margins management mentioned that’s its mainly attributable to audit adjustment amid amalgamation of of FFBL into FFC. However, we await detailed account for further clarity on this front.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): Dividend Below Expectations, But Overall Performance Holds Steady - By IIS Research

Jan 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • FFC posted its CY24 results today for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On an unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on a consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter against our expectation of PKR 25/sh, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The results also reflect a PKR 4 billion impairment loss on the company's investment in its subsidiary. Gross profit and net profit margins stood at 34% and 17%, respectively, while the effective tax rate was recorded at 42%.
  • CY23 figures have not yet been restated to incorporate the FFBL amalgamation. A more detailed breakdown is awaited to allow for a comprehensive review, performance comparison, and clarity on specific financial line items.
Fertilizer: FFC & EFERT: Volume led EPS growth expected in 4Q – By JS Research

Jan 24 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 4QCY24 earnings estimates for Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), where we expect FFC to report EPS of Rs17.6 post-merger with Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL), while EFERT is likely to post an EPS of Rs8.4 for the quarter.
  • Alongside the result, we also expect FFC to announce a cash dividend of Rs24.5/share (2HCY24E DPS), resuming the payout post amalgamation of FFBL into FFC. To recall, FFC did not announce any cash dividend during 3QCY24 to ensure equitable distribution of dividends post-merger. Cumulatively, dividend payout during CY24 is likely to hover around Rs40/share.
  • We expect EFERT to announce Rs8.2 DPS for 4QCY24, taking CY24 DPS to Rs21.7. We believe EFERT will remain on investors radar due to its decent double-digit dividend yield of 13% for CY25E.
Pakistan Market: SAZEW, GLAXO, AIRLINK, FFC & MARI top performer in KSE 100 Basket – By Topline Research

Dec 30 2024


Topline Securities


  • Benchmark KSE 100 Index jumped 85% in PKR (87% in USD) in 2024, with only one trading session left. Market value (market capitalization) of listed companies at PSX also increased by 61% to reach Rs14.6trn.
  • Pharmaceuticals, Jute and Transport were the best performing sectors in 2024 as their market cap increased by 198%, 182%, and 130% respectively. On the other hand, chemicals, Modarabas, and Textile Weaving sectors remained the worst performing sectors posting decline of 54%, 33% and 2%, respectively in 2024.
  • Pharmaceuticals posted a strong performance due to the improved financial results after decline in raw material prices, stable currency, lower inflation and deregulation of non-essential drugs. Haleon Pakistan (HALEON) saw its market capitalization rise by 409%, followed by GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (GLAXO) with a 385% increase, and Macter International (MACTER) with a 274% rise in 2024.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Post merger 2025 consolidated EPS likely around Rs76 and SOTP at Rs474 BUY stance maintained – By Topline Research

Dec 12 2024


Topline Securities


  • On Dec 04, 2024, the Honorable Lahore High Court (LHC) has sanctioned the merger by way of amalgamation of FFBL with and into FFC.
  • The swap ratio worked out by auditor is 4.29 shares of FFBL for 1 share of FFC.
  • The record date to determine identities of FFBL shareholders for their respective entitlements shall be Thursday Dec 26, 2024.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Pakistan Bank: Banks core income to decline in 4QCY24E - By JS Rresearch

Feb 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 results for Pakistan banks which are expected to broadly report YoY decline in core income due to NIMs contraction. Moreover, higher taxation is expected to outweigh gains from elevated non-core income and asset base growth.
  • Despite the decline in core income and continued reduction in asset yields, which will impact future quarterly profits, we expect the dividend strategies for 4QCY24 to remain intact.
  • Within our Banking Universe, we expect HBL to report EPS of Rs7.5 (+74% YoY), UBL Rs11.9 (+108% YoY), MEBL Rs12.3 (+82% YoY), AKBL Rs3.4 (+72% YoY), HMB Rs4.4 (+89% YoY) and FABL Rs2.4 (+46% YoY) for 4QCY24.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
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