Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): FFC received board approval to submit EOI for PIACL privatization - By AKD Research

Jun 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) has announced that its Board of Directors, in a meeting held on June 13, 2025, approved the submission of an Expression of Interest (EOI) and prequalification documents to Privatization Commission for the potential acquisition of stakes in Pakistan International Airlines Corporation Ltd. (PIACL) and undertaking a comprehensive due diligence exercise as part of the process.
  • PIACL, the national flag carrier of Pakistan, holds the highest market share in the domestic aviation sector at 19% and operates fleet of 34 aircraft. In a major restructuring effort last year, gov’t carved out net liabilities amounting to PkR654bn and non-core assets into PIA Holding Company Ltd. (Holdco of PIACL), making PIACL a debt-lite entity. Notably, PIACL was EBITDA-positive in CY24, with a reported equity value of PkR3.6bn as of Dec’24.
  • To recall, Privatization Commission had set a minimum bid price of PkR85bn in the previous privatization attempt. While, FFC has cash and ST investments worth PkR147bn on a standalone basis as of Mar’25.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): Defying headwinds with strong peer positioning; Reiterate Buy - By JS Research

May 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We reiterate Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) as our top pick in the fertilizer sector, offering DY of 12% as per CY25 numbers. Despite limited impact on earnings compared to the industry, the stock has seen significant correction, presenting an attractive entry point.
  • Favorable gas pricing enables FFC to offer lower-priced urea helping it retain a 49% Urea market share amid sub-optimal farm economics impacting demand. FFC’s management, in its recent corporate briefing, indicated that the ongoing inventory glut is expected to ease, with CY25E off-take to cross 6mn tons, subsequently taking CY25E-end inventory to 400-500k tons.
  • The company raised DAP prices by Rs320/bag last month due to a rise in international phosphoric acid prices, now standing at US$1,153/ton with local DAP primary margins to US$272/ton, versus an average phos. acid price of US$1,060/ton during 4MCY25. Our estimates indicate that a US$20/ton drop in primary margins in 2HCY25 could reduce CY25E EPS by 2-3%.
Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC): 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaway - By IIS Research

May 6 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1QCY25 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • To recall, in 1QCY25 FFC on standalone basis reported earnings of PKR 13.3bn (EPS: PKR 9 .33), up 26%YoY from PkR10.5bn (EPS: PKR 7.39) in SPLY. Along side the result, FFC announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 7.0/sh.
  • The company noted that growth in the agriculture sector slowed sharply to 1.2% in 1QFY25, down from 8.1% during the SPLY. This deceleration was driven by weaker farm activity and lower overall profitability. Farmers faced a significant decline in net income across key crops, particularly wheat and rice. The impact was further compounded by rising input costs and the transition from support prices to a free market system.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) held its corporate briefing session today to discuss 1QCY25 financial results and future outlook. Key takeaways from the call are as follows:
  • Company reported earnings of PkR13.3bn (PkR9.3/sh) in 1QCY25, compared to PkR10.5bn (PkR8.3/sh) in SPLY. The growth in profitability is attributed to i) improved gross margins amid the absence of high-cost imported urea, and ii) higher DAP volumes due to the inclusion of FFBL figures.
  • The fertilizer business contributed PkR8.1bn in profitability, along with PkR2.0bn and PkR3.2bn stemming from dividend and portfolio income, respectively
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 6 2025


Taurus Securities


  • FFC’s management held a corporate briefing session for 1QCY25 results where they discussed some of the major aspects considering weak farm economics, higher inventory levels and update on “Pressure Enhancement Facility” program. They told that the Agricultural sector is currently facing poor farm income on cash crops where they projected negative cash flows for Wheat crops during CY25, possible impact of shifting support prices (PKR 3,500/bag) to free market prices (currently PKR 2,200/bag). Further they also highlighted that higher input cost i.e. Fuel, seed, utilities and land lease are also putting negative pressure on farm incomes.
  • On the brighter side, the Company has achieved a turnaround in its Goth Machhi (Plant 1) and Port Qasim (Plant 4) during 1QCY25. Although, production declined by 14%YoY to 797KT (40% of the industry) in 1QCY25 along with a drop in overall off-take by 32%YoY to 626KT, resulting in an increase of inventory to 242KT (Urea and DAP inventory went up to 132KT and 110KT, respectively) by end of Mar’25.
  • As per the financial performance, the management shared that the Company had achieved a net profitability of PKR 13.3Bn in 1QCY25, up 27%YoY. This profitability can be brokendown into PKR 8.1Bn from the core business, PKR 3.2Bn from investments and PKR 2Bn from Dividend income
Fauji Fertilizer (FFC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 6 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss financial result and future outlook of the company.
  • On the demand front, management commented that urea demand will be expected to be higher than 6mn tons, while industry is expected to rebound in coming quarters given Kharif and Rabi seasons. In 2024 urea sales for the industry was 6.57mn tons.
  • The company does not expect any urea exports this year as inventory
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
Fauji Fertilizer Limited (FFC): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • To recall, FFC posted its CY24 results for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The company demonstrated its financial performance in CY24 post merger, with equity and reserves rising to PKR 132 billion (vs. PKR 62 billion SPLY), long term investments reaching PKR 77 billion (vs. PKR 49 billion SPLY), short term investments increasing to PKR 216 billion (vs. PKR 96 billion SPLY), and property, plant & equipment expanding to PKR 58 billion (vs. PKR 40 billion SPLY). However, as a result of the merger, audit adjustments related to receivables and other items in 4QCY24 impacted profitability, leading to lower earnings than anticipated.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited has conducted its CY24 analyst briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • FFC has posted PAT of PKR64.7bn (EPS: PKR45.5) in CY24 vs. PKR29.7bn (EPS: PKR23.32) in SPLY, amid higher offtakes coupled with increase in product prices. Additionally, the CY24 income statement includes two quarters of FFBL's financials. Along with the result, company has also announced dividend of PKR36.5/sh in CY24 vs. PKR15.5/sh in SPLY.
  • On lower gross margins management mentioned that’s its mainly attributable to audit adjustment amid amalgamation of of FFBL into FFC. However, we await detailed account for further clarity on this front.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC): Dividend Below Expectations, But Overall Performance Holds Steady - By IIS Research

Jan 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • FFC posted its CY24 results today for the first time after the amalgamation with FFBL. On an unconsolidated basis, EPS stood at PKR 45.49, while on a consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 60.10. The company announced a DPS of PKR 21/sh for the quarter against our expectation of PKR 25/sh, in addition to the PKR 15.5 already paid (revised to PKR 13.86/sh based on the new number of shares), bringing the total CY24 payout to PKR 34.86/sh.
  • The results also reflect a PKR 4 billion impairment loss on the company's investment in its subsidiary. Gross profit and net profit margins stood at 34% and 17%, respectively, while the effective tax rate was recorded at 42%.
  • CY23 figures have not yet been restated to incorporate the FFBL amalgamation. A more detailed breakdown is awaited to allow for a comprehensive review, performance comparison, and clarity on specific financial line items.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Surges to Historic High, Ends Day Tepid - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark KSE-100 index touched a new all-time intraday high of 134,200 amid continued positive sentiment; however, gains were trimmed by the close, with the index settling nearly flat at 133,403—up just 33.05 points. Value buying was evident in the banking sector, while profit-taking emerged in selective bluechip stocks. Trading activity remained robust, with benchmark index volumes hitting 324mn shares and broader market participation crossing 1.2bn shares. Volume leaders for the day included TPLP (97mn), WTL (64mn), and HASCOL (48mn). Going forward, market direction will likely hinge on institutional flows and clarity on macroeconomic triggers. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Pakistan Bank: Banks core income to decline in 4QCY24E - By JS Rresearch

Feb 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 results for Pakistan banks which are expected to broadly report YoY decline in core income due to NIMs contraction. Moreover, higher taxation is expected to outweigh gains from elevated non-core income and asset base growth.
  • Despite the decline in core income and continued reduction in asset yields, which will impact future quarterly profits, we expect the dividend strategies for 4QCY24 to remain intact.
  • Within our Banking Universe, we expect HBL to report EPS of Rs7.5 (+74% YoY), UBL Rs11.9 (+108% YoY), MEBL Rs12.3 (+82% YoY), AKBL Rs3.4 (+72% YoY), HMB Rs4.4 (+89% YoY) and FABL Rs2.4 (+46% YoY) for 4QCY24.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 4Q EPS dent by merger adjustments; overall outlook remains intact - By JS Rresearch

Feb 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) completed the amalgamation process of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Lim. (FFBL). FFC reported its earnings of the merged entity amounting to Rs65bn, translating into an EPS (diluted) of Rs45.49. Alongside the result, the Company announced a cash dividend of Rs21/sh., taking the CY24 payout to Rs34.9/sh.
  • The company recently conducted its corporate briefing session, to discuss CY24 results and outlook of the merged entity. Management highlighted that audit adjustments on receivables related to sales tax and subsidies impacted margins in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we expect margins to stabilize in the upcoming quarters, hovering around 34%.
  • Further, the management apprised that the Port Qasim plant (formerly FFBL) turnaround is nearing completion, while one turnaround at base plant is expected this month, another is planned for Oct-2025. Moreover, the management reiterated that the gas supply agreement with MARI remains intact until 2029. We reiterate our liking for FFC, offering CY25E D/Y of 13%.
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