Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note - By IIS Research
Feb 6 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- The benchmark index closed on a negative note, staying volatile and largely in the red as investors remained cautious with fresh investments due to a lack of positive triggers. Concerns over potential hurdles in the IMF program, with no major developments easing the upcoming review, kept sentiment subdued. Meanwhile, profit taking persisted amid result season. Trading volumes increased to 174mn shares today as compared to 171mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 1,634 points to close at 110,301 level, down by -1.46% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Commercial Banks, and Fertilizer sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 939 points from the index.
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): EPS Clocked in at PKR23.3 – Inline with Expectations - By IIS Research
Apr 28 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) has announced its 3QFY25 results, reporting a Profit After Tax (PAT) of PKR 6.6bn (EPS: PKR 23.3/share), down 47% YoY and 13% QoQ. The result is broadly in line with our expectations. However, a few deviations were noted: taxation turned out lower than anticipated, while exploration costs were higher than projected, slightly offsetting operational performance.
- During 3QFY25, Revenue witnessed decline of 11% YoY, because of drop in hydrocarbon production and lower oil prices. Moreover, operating costs increased by 17% YoY and declined by 7% QoQ.
- Exploration expenses increased by 3.5x YoY and 2.25x, possibly de to higher seismic activity during the qtr. Other income decreased by 28% YoY and 38% QoQ, due to decline in interest rates. Other charges decreased by 39% YoY and 22% QoQ.
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR23.3 – Inline with expectation - By Insight Research
Apr 28 2025
Insight Securities
- Pakistan Oilfields has announced its 3QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted unconsolidated PAT of PKR6.6bn (EPS: PKR23.3) vs. PAT of PKR12.3bn (EPS: PKR43.4) in SPLY, down by 46% YoY. The result is inline with our expectation.
- Topline of the company decreased by 10%/2% YoY/QoQ, mainly due to lower oil prices coupled with decline in hydrocarbon production.
- Exploration cost increases by 351%/126% YoY/QoQ, possibly attributable to some seismic survey during the quarter.
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC):3QFY25 Preview: Earnings dip amid PPA setbacks - By AKD Research
Apr 28 2025
AKD Securities
- We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR10.7bn (EPS: PkR8.25) for 3QFY25, down 38%YoY.
- HUBC is anticipated to record its lowest consolidated topline in four years, expected to clock in at PkR14.3bn (down 55%YoY/8%QoQ).
- Mar’25 marked the first month of BYD’s official entry into the domestic auto market, with the commencement of sales for the Atto-3 and Seal models.
AGP Limited (AGP): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research
Apr 28 2025
Taurus Securities
- AGP Limited was incorporated as a public limited company in May 2014. The Company got listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited on 05 March 2018. The principal activities of the Company include import, marketing, export, dealership, distribution, wholesale and manufacturing of all kinds of pharmaceutical products.
- In CY24, stand-alone revenue clocked in at PKR 18.5Bn compared to PKR 13.8Bn, up 34% over the SPLY. While consolidated revenue clocked in at PKR 25Bn as compared to PKR 18.7Bn, up 34% driven by higher prices. Consolidated gross margins increased 4ppts arriving at 58% compared to 54% in the SPLY primarily attributable to pass on effects of prices to customers.
- Finance costs arrived at PKR 2.6Bn compared to PKR 1.6Bn, up 65% in the SPLY driven by higher interest rates on the back of higher borrowing requirement. Similarly, effective tax rate clocked in at 33% compared to 31% mainly due to the higher tax rate and shift to normal tax regime. Consequently, PAT arrived in at PKR 2.9Bn as compared to PKR 1.8Bn, up 64% over the SPLY. Resultantly, earnings increased by 70% arriving at PKR 9.53/sh compared to PKR 5.59/sh
Kohat Cement Company Ltd. (KOHC):3QFY25 Result Review — Declining coal prices overshadow reduced volumes - By AKD Research
Apr 28 2025
AKD Securities
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. (KOHC) announced its 3QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR2.3bn (EPS: PkR11.9), compared to PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR10.5) in SPLY, up 14%YoY, due to increase in gross margins. Earnings were in line with our expectations.
- Revenue decreased by 4%YoY to PkR8.1bn from PkR8.5bn in SPLY, wherein, 5%YoY decrease in volumes overshadowed 1%YoY rise in retention prices.
- Gross margins improved to 39.5% from 29.9% in SPLY, attributed to i) higher retention prices, ii) decline in coal prices, and iii) lower grid tariff (~40% of power reliance)
AGP Limited (AGP): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research
Apr 28 2025
- AGP Limited reported a net profit of PKR 2.08 billion (EPS: PKR 7.44) in CY24, reflecting a 75% increase compared to PKR 1.19 billion (EPS: PKR 4.25) in the previous year.
- Net sales rose 34% YoY to PKR 18.54 billion, while consolidated revenue reached PKR 25.03 billion, up from PKR 18.74 billion in SPLY. Growth was driven by a 21% increase in volumes and a 13% price impact. Consolidated gross margins improved to 58.1% from 53.6% in the SPLY, while operating margins expanded to 28.5% from 22.7%, attributed to successful price adjustments and operational efficiencies
- Management highlighted that recent acquisitions have contributed significantly to performance, with a 5-year consolidated revenue CAGR of 38%, of which 52% was driven by inorganic growth.
Attock Petroleum Limited (APL): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR 20.7, down 14%YoY - By Taurus Research
Apr 28 2025
Taurus Securities
- 3QFY25: – EPS: PKR 20.7, PAT: ~PKR 2.6Bn, 14% down over the SPLY.
- In 3QFY25, APL’s topline reached ~PKR 115Bn, down 7%YoY and 6%QoQ, driven by a 9% YoY drop in volumetric sales. Gross margins remained flat at 5%, mainly due to inventory losses amid falling MS and HSD prices.
- For 9MFY25, APL's revenue stood at ~PKR 347Bn, down 12%YoY, with PAT decreasing 29%YoY to ~PKR 7.7Bn compared to the SPLY.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 28 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Cherat Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,512 million (EPS: PKR 7.78) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22% YoY supported by higher retention prices and improved cost efficiencies
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 8,155 million, down 6% YoY, mainly due to decline in local and export dispatches.
- Gross margins are estimated at 32%, up 2ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy has contributed to this margin expansion.
Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC): 3QFY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 11.9, PAT down 32%QoQ - By Taurus Research
Apr 28 2025
Taurus Securities
- 3QFY25 – EPS: PKR 11.9, PAT: ~PKR 2.3Bn, up ~14% over the SPLY – below expectations.
- KOHC’s net revenue clocked-in at ~PKR 8.1Bn in 3QFY25, down 23%QoQ due to decrease in total dispatches by 14% i.e. domestic and export sales dropped by 14% and 80%, respectively. Gross margin hovered around 40% during 3QFY25, down 2pptsQoQ. Selling & distribution expenses down 2%QoQ and 10%QoQ in 3QFY25 - decreased in line with the decline in sales volume during the quarter. Finance cost plunged significantly by 36%QoQ in 3QFY25 on the back of lower interest rates during the period. PAT arrived at PKR 2.3Bn in 3QFY25, down 32% due to drop in sales along with decline in other income (down 42%QoQ). Lastly, the Company did not announce a cash dividend for the quarter.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Result Review: LUCK 3QFY25 Diluted EPS Rs9.2 - By Sherman Research
Apr 28 2025
Sherman Securities
- Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) announced its 3QFY25 result today wherein the company posted unconsolidated net earnings of Rs13.5bn (Diluted EPS Rs9.2) compared to net earnings of Rs4.9bn (Diluted EPS Rs3.4) during same period last year, up by 174%YoY. The result came above our estimate due to 1) Higher than expected other income and 2) lower effective taxation. Just to recall, this result incorporates the stock split with total outstanding shares of 1.46bn shares.
- During 3QFY25, net revenue surged by 10%YoY to Rs34.5bn primarily driven by elevated exports (up 52%YoY) while local dispatches remain stagnant.
- LUCK’s gross margin clocked in at 33% as compared to 29% during the same period last year (up 4ppt). The increase in margins is mainly led by lower coal cost and efficient power mix
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): EPS Clocked in at PKR23.3 – Inline with Expectations - By IIS Research
Apr 28 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) has announced its 3QFY25 results, reporting a Profit After Tax (PAT) of PKR 6.6bn (EPS: PKR 23.3/share), down 47% YoY and 13% QoQ. The result is broadly in line with our expectations. However, a few deviations were noted: taxation turned out lower than anticipated, while exploration costs were higher than projected, slightly offsetting operational performance.
- During 3QFY25, Revenue witnessed decline of 11% YoY, because of drop in hydrocarbon production and lower oil prices. Moreover, operating costs increased by 17% YoY and declined by 7% QoQ.
- Exploration expenses increased by 3.5x YoY and 2.25x, possibly de to higher seismic activity during the qtr. Other income decreased by 28% YoY and 38% QoQ, due to decline in interest rates. Other charges decreased by 39% YoY and 22% QoQ.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Earnings Beat by Lower Than Expected ETR - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Mari Energies Limited (MARI PA) has announced its 3QFY25 profit of PKR 15.9bn (PKR 13.25/share), up by 13% YoY & 42% on QoQ basis. The result is above our expectations mainly due to lower than anticipated ETR.
- Revenue fell 5% YoY (up by 10% QoQ) in 3Q, driven by lower oil prices. Royalty rose 2x YoY due to a 15% hike in MARI field charges amid lease extension from Nov’24.
- Operating expenses declined by 27% YoY and 45% QoQ, mainly because of absence of amortization of dry well costs. Exploration expenses also decreased by 81% YoY and 22% on QoQ basis, mainly because of no dry well during the qtr.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA): Earnings Dip 39% QoQ on Lower Offtake - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- FATIMA announced its 1QCY25 results today. On a consolidated basis, EPS came in at PKR 3.99 (our expectations of PKR 4.21). with Sales declining by 21% YoY and 40% QoQ to PKR 51.96 billion, primarily due to lower Offtakes. Despite this, gross margins remained better at 40% (vs. 42% YoY and 32% QoQ) indicating cost efficiencies as production levels remained largely consistent.
- Inventory levels remain high, with FATIMA holding 233KT of urea, which accounts for 28% of the total industry stock, as well as 258KT of CAN, a product it produces exclusively within the industry. The overall industry continues to struggle with offtake, primarily due to reduced farm incomes following the shift from a crop support price regime to a free market system, while input costs have remained unchanged.
- Finance costs rose sharply by 131% YoY, due to higher borrowings. The effective tax rate for the quarter stood at 39%, compared to 49% in the SPLY and 37% in the previous quarter.
Pakistan Economy: CPI expected at 0.8% in April'25 - By IIS Research
Apr 25 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Inflation for Apr’25 is projected at 0.8%, sharply down from 17.3% in SPLY, indicating significant easing in price pressures. On a MoM basis, CPI is expected to decline by 0.29%, reversing the 0.89% increase in Mar’25. This drop is mainly driven by lower prices of Wheat, Eggs, Fresh fruits, Onions, and Tomatoes, leading to a 1.5% MoM decline in overall food inflation. The Housing index is also expected to fall by 0.8% MoM, despite rent adjustments, due to a reduction in the electricity index from negative fuel price adjustments in April.
- Core inflation is projected to ease to 8.4% from 15.6% in SPLY, with urban core at 7.6% and rural core at 9.5%. The sharp decline is due to the high base effect and improved price stability. However, rural core inflation remains relatively elevated due to persistent challenges like supply chain inefficiencies and higher transportation costs in rural areas.
- In its last meeting, the SBP maintained the policy rate at 12%, opting to pause after a cumulative 1,000 bps rate cut to evaluate its impact on inflation and overall macroeconomic stability. The MPC flagged persistent risks from elevated core inflation and possible upticks in food and energy prices. Meanwhile, the government raised the PDL by another PKR 8/liter, pushing the total to PKR 78/liter. The IMF has also stressed the need for continued monetary discipline, noting that the full effects of recent rate cuts are yet to be seen. Additionally, with the federal budget due in June, policymakers are likely to monitor its potential inflationary implications closely. Given these factors, we expect a status quo in the upcoming MPC.
Oil & Gas Exploration: Earnings to Dip on Lower Oil Prices and Production - By IIS Research
Apr 24 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- We preview the IIS E&Ps universe, where 3QFY25 earnings are expected to decline by 12.6% YoY, though improve slightly by 1.8% QoQ. The YoY drop is mainly attributed to a 6.5% fall in oil prices, reduced hydrocarbon production, and a rise in MARI’s royalty expense following a lease extension. Revenues are projected to contract by 13.4% YoY (flat QoQ), led by the decline in both oil prices and production volumes. Meanwhile, other income is likely to shrink 20.1% QoQ, driven by lower interest rates.
- Exploration expenses are expected to decline by 67.8% YoY, mainly due to the absence of dry wells during the quarter and a high base effect stemming from a one-off impairment booked by MARI in the same period last year. On a QoQ basis, exploration costs are also lower. Although OGDC encountered a dry well (Chak 202- 2), it was developmental rather than exploratory, and its cost will be amortized accordingly. Operating expenses are projected to fall by 10% YoY and 15.6% QoQ, largely due to the absence of amortization-related charges recorded by MARI in the previous quarter.1
- At the company level, we expect YoY earnings declines across most of E&Ps universe. POL’s earnings are projected to drop by 43.1% YoY, owing to a one-off tax allowance in 3QFY24. OGDC & PPL are also likely to post lower earnings, down 10.1% and 9.4% YoY, respectively, on account of weaker oil prices and lower production. MARI’s earnings, however, are expected to remain flat YoY, with the impact of higher royalty charges offset by a lower effective tax rate in base period.
International Steels Limited (ISL): Earnings drop 41% YoY on Lower Sales and Margins - By IIS Research
Apr 24 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- International Steels Limited (ISL) announced its 3QFY25 results today, reporting a PAT of PKR 417 million (EPS: PKR 0.96), compared to PKR 706 million (EPS: PKR 1.63) in the same period last year, down by 41% YoY, mainly due to lower sales and gross margins. However, earnings increased by 18% QoQ.
- The company’s topline declined by 15% YoY and 24% QoQ to PKR 13.9 billion, primarily due to lower volumetric sales as cheaper imported material in the market made the company less competitive. Additionally, falling product prices further impacted revenue.
- Gross margins stood at 8.6% in 3QFY25, declining 300 bps YoY due to a contraction in CRC-HRC spread, while improving 50 bps QoQ.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings beat expectation on lower tax - By IIS Research
Apr 23 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 2.8bn (EPS: PKR 2.64) compared to PKR 1.5bn (EPS: PKR 1.44) in the same period last year, reflecting a 2x YoY increase. This strong performance was driven by improved gross margins and a lower effective tax rate.
- The company’s topline grew by 4% YoY to PKR 16.6bn, mainly due to higher bag prices. However, revenue declined by 13% QoQ, owing to a 10% drop in total dispatches and a 5% QoQ decline in prices.
- Gross margins stood at 36% compared to 30% in the same period last year, benefiting from an efficient fuel mix, increased use of alternative fuels and a decline in coal prices. On a QoQ basis, it declined by 400 bps.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Earnings Down 13% YoY; Dividend Maintained - By IIS Research
Apr 21 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- Meezan Bank Limited has announced 1QCY25 result, where the bank has posted unconsolidated earnings of PKR 12.28/sh, down by 13% YoY and 8% on QoQ basis. The result is inline with our expectations. The bank has announced interim cash dividend of PKR 7/sh.
- Net spread income declined by 9% YoY and 15% QoQ, reflecting the impact of asset repricing concentrated in 3Q/4Q and the implementation of the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) for Islamic banks. Fee income rose 10% YoY but dropped 8% QoQ, while FX income surged 3x amid higher trade activity and volumes.
- Operating expenses down by 7% YoY and increase by 11% QoQ. Bank also recorded a provisioning of PKR 1.86 billion in 1QCY25 vs. Reversal of PKR0.35 bn in SPLY.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research
Apr 16 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
- Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research
Apr 4 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
- On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
- For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.