Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Higher growth ahead, Still a Buy - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 7 2025


Alpha Capital


  • FY24 was a tumultuous year for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), characterized by demand destruction, elevated fuel prices, and a resurgence of smuggling activities from across the border, all of which hurt the OMC industry. However, the start of FY25 has been promising, and the outlook for the sector is positive as we witness a significant rebound in sales volumes. The past six months have been favorable for OMCs due to high volumetric sales, primarily driven by increased demand for Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD).
  • The growth in MS and HSD sales reflects a recovery in economic activity, particularly in the transportation and agricultural sectors, driven by falling commodity prices. We believe with the economic conditions stabilizing, further growth in MS and HSD sales volume is expected. Inflation has been steadily coming down, with the average inflation during CY24 recorded at 13.1%, compared to 30.9% last year. This is coupled with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% and a gradual recovery in large-scale manufacturing and service sectors, which will stimulate demand.
  • The government is expected to approve an increase in the OMC margins in Feb’25 following a recommendation by OGRA to increase margins from PKR 7.86/l to PKR 9.22/l. This is in line with the CPI-linked methodology of implementing margins and has been long overdue. An increase in margins will set the sector up for profitability.

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Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in at PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY, DPS PKR 2.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • PPL announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein, the company reported an EPS of PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share.
  • Net sales clocked in at PKR 61.3bn during 2QFY25, compared to PKR 73.0bn in SPLY, down 16% YoY, due to PKR appreciation against the greenback (5% YoY) and a decline in oil/gas production (-13%/-10% YoY).
  • The company posted exploration expenses of PKR 5.3bn (-20% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 6.7bn in SPLY, due to reduced exploration activity during the quarter.
Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY, DPS PKR 4.05 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.05/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 clock in at PKR 100.4bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 13% YoY mainly on the back of a lower oil prices (-10.2% YoY), and an appreciating exchange rate (+5% YoY).
  • Exploration expenses climbed to PKR 4.0bn (+68% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 20 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM) owing to the rising POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (- 20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
  • The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for consumers in Feb-24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Higher growth ahead, Still a Buy - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 7 2025


Alpha Capital


  • FY24 was a tumultuous year for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), characterized by demand destruction, elevated fuel prices, and a resurgence of smuggling activities from across the border, all of which hurt the OMC industry. However, the start of FY25 has been promising, and the outlook for the sector is positive as we witness a significant rebound in sales volumes. The past six months have been favorable for OMCs due to high volumetric sales, primarily driven by increased demand for Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD).
  • The growth in MS and HSD sales reflects a recovery in economic activity, particularly in the transportation and agricultural sectors, driven by falling commodity prices. We believe with the economic conditions stabilizing, further growth in MS and HSD sales volume is expected. Inflation has been steadily coming down, with the average inflation during CY24 recorded at 13.1%, compared to 30.9% last year. This is coupled with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% and a gradual recovery in large-scale manufacturing and service sectors, which will stimulate demand.
  • The government is expected to approve an increase in the OMC margins in Feb’25 following a recommendation by OGRA to increase margins from PKR 7.86/l to PKR 9.22/l. This is in line with the CPI-linked methodology of implementing margins and has been long overdue. An increase in margins will set the sector up for profitability.
Morning News: Don’t take GSP+ for granted, says EU envoy: - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jan 31 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The European Union has warned Pakistan not to take its GSP+ status for granted.
  • Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb said the legislation concerning the Agriculture Income Tax had been approved by the two provincial assemblies and the IMF was fully cognisant that progress was underway in Sindh and Balochistan.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan Governor, Jamil Ahmed, has said that exporters are being provided with all possible facilities to increase the country’s exports.
Economy: Revenue surplus expected to drop to PKR 4bn - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jan 27 2025


Alpha Capital


  • As part of the IMF's conditions for the release of the USD 7bn tranche, Pakistan was required to terminate gas supplies to captive power producers (CPPs) by January 2025. This measure was intended to encourage a shift towards increased reliance on gridbased electricity consumption. However, following sustained efforts, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) succeeded in negotiating more favourable terms for CPPs.
  • Under the initial proposition, gas supply to the specified plants was to be discontinued by January 31st, 2025. However, the Government of Pakistan (GoP), while maintaining the gas supply for CPPs, has approved an increase in tariffs for CPPs, revising the rate from PKR 3,000/MMBTU (effective July 2024) to PKR 3,500/MMBTU (effective February 2025). All other categories, including domestic consumers, will remain unaffected by this tariff adjustment.
  • A total of 480 CPPs operate on the SNGPL network (54 MMCFD) and 800 on the SSGC network (118 MMCFD). With limited availability of capital, we anticipate minimal decline in demand in the short run. Additionally, the ECC has approved the imposition of a grid transition levy which penalises captive power, forcing the shift to grid power, thereby releasing the downward pressure on grid power consumption amid falling LSM index (-1.25% YoY) and transitions to solar power.
Economy: Dec-24 NCPI expected at 4.3% YoY, lowest since Apr-18 – By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 27 2024


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 4.3% YoY in Dec-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 4.9% YoY in Nov-24. This is expected to take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3% YoY. MoM inflation is expected to remain flattish, up by 0.3% MoM, primarily on the back of (i) a muted trend in the Food segment, (ii) a -1.1% MoM decrease in utilities segment due to a reduction in electricity charges, and (iii) a 0.7% MoM increase in Transport segment due to a rise in POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to stay flat with a slight increase of 0.2% MoM in Dec-24, indicating winter effect on perishable food items. Within this category, items driving the reduction in prices include: wheat flour (-2% MoM), chicken (-13% MoM), and tomatoes (-14% MoM).
  • Electricity tariff for Dec-24 depicts the continuation of a downward trend due to (i) a negative FCA of PKR 1.145/kwh, (ii) an updated QTA of PKR 0.196/kwh, and (iii) the introduction of Winter Demand Initiative (WDI) offering a discount on incremental consumption to domestic consumers (using above 200 units). Cumulatively, we expect these developments to reduce electricity charges by 5.9% MoM in Dec-24 and, consequently, a 1.1% MoM fall in the Utilities segment in the NCPI print.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024


Alpha Capital


  • We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.
  • Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.
  • Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.
Pakistan Economy: SBP slashes policy rate by 200bps to 13% - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 17 2024


Alpha Capital


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced its monetary policy on 16th December (Monday), wherein the policy rate was cut by 200bps to 13.0%, bringing down the real interest rate to ~850bps. This latest move brings the cumulative rate cuts to 900bps since Jun-24.
  • Some key developments influencing the macroeconomic outlook include (i) the current account recording a surplus for the third consecutive month in October 2024 amidst weak financial inflows and substantial debt repayments, (ii) global commodity prices remaining favorable, with positive spillovers on domestic inflation and the import bill, (iii) credit to the private sector increasing, reflecting the efforts of banks in meeting the advances-to-deposit ratio (ADR), and (iv) widening of shortfall in tax revenues from the target.