Morning News: Oil ticks higher as investors weigh new US tariffs - By IIS Research

Feb 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices ticked higher on Monday even as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat, this time on all steel and aluminium imports, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand. Brent crude futures climbed 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $75.06 a barrel by 0133 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.38 a barrel, up 38 cents, or 0.5%. The market posted its third consecutive weekly decline last week on concerns about a global trade war.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) scoping mission is currently in Pakistan to undertake Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA) and examine the severity of corruption vulnerabilities across six core state functions including fiscal governance, central bank governance and operations, market regulation and rule of law.
  • Pakistan has met three out of the five major fiscal conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first review of the $7 billion programme, thanks to improved performance by the federal and provincial governments, according to a finance ministry report.

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Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.
Morning News: IMF objects to govt move to borrow Rs1.25tr for circular debt resolution - By IIS Research

Mar 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are poised to make key adjustments to the country’s macroeconomic and fiscal framework for the current fiscal year 2024-25. The upcoming policy-level talks, scheduled to commence from Monday, will finalize these adjustments.
  • The government is negotiating a Rs1.25 trillion ($4.47 billion) loan with commercial banks to reduce its bulging energy sector debt, the power minister and banking association said.
  • Energy Minister Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari on Sunday announced that no new surcharge would be imposed on electricity consumers to settle the Rs2400 billion circular debt
Economy: IMF Review Underway: Fiscal Discipline and Revenue Challenges in Focus - By IIS Research

Mar 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has arrived in Pakistan to conduct an economic review and determine the release of the next $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion loan program, with discussions set to continue until March 15.
  • As of now, there is a PKR 606 billion shortfall in the revenue target. However, we believe this can be largely offset by savings on interest costs, driven by the sharp 1,000 bps reduction in policy rates and a continued decline in government borrowing costs. With market yields already adjusting downward and a shift toward cheaper domestic financing, the government's overall debt servicing burden is easing. This should provide some fiscal space to absorb the revenue gap without requiring aggressive expenditure cuts or additional taxation in the near term.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1HFY25 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • Local dispatches of the industry declined by 10.4% YoY, reaching 18.1mn tons in 1HFY25 due to subdued demand, while exports saw a significant growth of 31.7% YoY. Local demand showed some improvement in 2QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22.8% QoQ. Looking ahead, the company expects demand to recover from this negative double-digit growth, hinging on factors such as decrease in interest rates. However, Ramazan and Eid factor will likely affect the sales in 2HFY25.
  • For LUCK, total dispatches increased by 8.7% YoY in 1HFY25, primarily driven by rise in exports, as the company continues to explore different export destinations. However, local dispatches declined by 14%, in line with the industry trend.
Morning News: Oil extends gains on strong US demand hopes, Russia supply concerns - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices extended gains on Friday, headed for a weekly increase, as falling inventories of U.S. gasoline and distillate raised expectations of solid demand while concerns over supply disruptions in Russia lent support. Brent futures climbed 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.64 a barrel by 0123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.65. Both benchmarks were set for a weekly gain of about 3%.
  • Federal Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday that the “country has lost its credibility,” emphasising that urgent economic reforms are necessary to restore trust. During a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, headed by Senator Sherry Rehman, the top financial czar briefed lawmakers on the country’s climate financing challenges and its negotiations with international lenders.
  • An International Monetary Fund mission will arrive in Islamabad next week to discuss around $1 billion in climate financing for Pakistan, an adviser to the country’s finance minister said on Thursday. Khurram Schehzad told Reuters that the mission would visit from February 24 to 28 for a “review and discussion” of climate resilience funding.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 4QCY24 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 4QCY24, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR14.4bn (EPS: PkR9.8) for the quarter (down 3%YoY/flat on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced final cash dividend of PkR4.25/share, taking total CY24 dividend to PkR16.25/sh (vs. PKR9.5sh in CY23).
  • Total deposits grew by 5.5% from Dec’23 to ~PKR 4.4 trn, with domestic deposits rising by PKR180 bn (5%), primarily driven by an increase in current accounts (PKR 176 bn). Average domestic deposits saw a significant YoY increase of PKR 627 Bn, mainly supported by PKR 405 Bn in low cost deposits. International deposits also expanded to $2.2 Bn, reflecting a $192 million increase over Dec’23. Bank expects 17-18% growth in deposits during CY25
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings surge 3x QoQ on Higher Sales - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 3.7bn (EPS: PKR 3.57) vs. PKR 1.3bn (EPS: PKR 1.28) in the previous quarter, reflecting a 3x QoQ increase. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to higher than projected revenue and gross margins.
  • The company’s topline grew by 21% QoQ to PKR 19bn, likely driven by 17% QoQ increase in total dispatches and improved export prices. On a YoY basis, revenue went up by 5%, supported by higher bag prices despite a 6% YoY decline in dispatches.
  • Gross margins stood at 40% compared to 32% in the previous quarter, benefiting from improved margins on white cement, an efficient fuel mix, and a decline in coal prices.
Morning News: IMF, govt teams to discuss energy reform mechanism - By IIS Research

Feb 17 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and government’s teams will discuss viable mechanism to extend electricity and gas tariff differential subsidy through Benazir Income Support Fund (BISP), adjustment of gas prices quarterly and additional levy on vehicles on use of liquid fuels on Tuesday (tomorrow), well informed sources in Finance Ministry told Business Recorder.
  • Supreme Court Bar Association of Pakistan (SCBAP) president met with representatives from the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Islamabad.
  • The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has announced plans to boost equity investments and target large-scale infrastructure financing in Pakistan, according to Radio Pakistan.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows.
  • To recall, in 4QCY24 the company has posted consolidated earnings of PKR 7.7/share (PKR 21.16/share in CY24). Alongside the result, the company announced a cash dividend of PKR 8.00/share (PKR 21.50/share in CY24).
  • The company highlighted the YoY improvement in annual performance, from revenue to EPS. However, quarterly results showed a 7.8% YoY decline in PAT, driven by discounts offered to dealers. The gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 35%, up from 31% in the previous quarter, attributed to the reclassification of expenses for better presentation.