Autos: Robust growth likely to continue in Jan-2025 - By JS Research

Feb 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We expect strong momentum in auto sales to persist, with the three major players – Pak Suzuki Motor Company, Indus Motors Ltd (INDU), and Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR) – expected to report a combined volume of 12.8k units in Jan-2025, reflecting a 47% YoY increase, the highest since Dec-2022.
  • In 7MFY25, the three companies that account for approximately 85% of the four-wheeler market are expected to achieve total volumes of ~64k units, reflecting a 50% YoY increase. This growth is driven by stable car prices, promotional offers from dealerships, and attractive financing rates from banks. Additionally, an improved macroeconomic environment has helped mitigate supply chain challenges for the companies.
  • Going forward, we expect stable car prices, a decline in auto financing rates, and a potential increase in SBP’s auto financing limit to stimulate sector demand. Meanwhile, new product launches, such as the JAC-T9 Hunter, Hyundai Sonata N-Line, and KIA Sportage-L, will further expand consumer choices.

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Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Autos: Volume likely to grow, albeit at a slower pace in Mar-2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Auto sales are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, with a projected 14% YoY increase in Mar-2025, although the growth momentum has slowed-down compared to the Jul-24 to Jan-25 period. The projected increase is likely to be led by Indus Motor Company (INDU), which is anticipated to post an 84% YoY jump in volumes.
  • Cumulatively, the three major OEMs – Pak Suzuki Motor Company, Indus Motors Ltd (INDU), and Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR) – are expected to record total sales of around 9.1k units in Mar-2025. However, on a MoM basis, sales for these players are projected to decline by 9%.
  • During 9MFY25, the three companies that account for ~84% of the four-wheeler market, are projected to achieve total volumes of ~84k units, marking a 42% YoY increase. We expect that gradual reduction in the weighted average tariff on imported vehicles could however pose a challenge for the domestic auto industry in the long-run.
Fertilizers: Urea sales to hit 5yr low in Mar-2025 - By JS Research

Apr 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fertilizer sales during Mar-2025 are expected to remain abysmal amid suboptimal farm economics. Accordingly, Urea offtake is likely to witness a decline of 54% YoY, arriving at 308k tons during the month. Cumulatively, Urea off-take during 1QCY25 is estimated to clock in at 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY. Likewise, DAP sales are likely to drop by 61% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 187k tons, down 26% YoY in Mar-2025. This includes 19k tons of granular Urea (ex. FFBL). EFERT’s Urea sales volume likely to arrive at 59k tons, down 60% YoY. Similarly, Urea off-take for FATIMA is likely to hover around 37k tons, down 53% YoY.
  • Continued slowdown in Urea market is expected to keep inventory levels significantly high, arriving at 840k tons with EFERT being the most affected amid dull off-take, losing its market share by 6ppts YoY to 24% during 1QCY24. On the contrary, FFC continued to hold lesser inventory levels with market share increasing to 49% YoY (up 9ppts YoY)
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 4, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged by 1.6%, crossing the historic 120,000-point milestone during intraday trading, driven by investor optimism following a 18% electricity tariff cut and easing inflation. However, it closed at 118,791, down 146 points, as global trade tensions and tariff disputes weighed on sentiment. Banking sector shares saw increased buying interest, while oil and gas stocks faced selling pressure. Looking ahead, market performance will depend on global economic stability and domestic policy measures to sustain investor confidence.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day March 19, 2025 - By JS Research

Mar 19 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls continued to dominate the trading floor as the benchmark index managed to close upwards for the 5th straight session at an alltime high of 117,974 points (+ve 973) mainly led by oil & gas, power, and fertilizer sector. This continuation of bullish activities was primarily attributed to likely resolution of circular debt and approval of IMF program. We are still positive on the market and advise investors to adopt a ‘Buy on dips’ strategy.
Fertilizers: Weak farm economics continue to dent sales in Feb-2025 - By JS Research

Mar 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fertilizer sales during Feb-2025 are likely to remain adversely impacted, with industry-wide Urea and DAP off-take expected to reach 341k tons (-37% YoY) and 41k tons (-64% YoY), respectively. The decline is driven by continued disruptions in water supply, weaker farm economics due to lower crop prices, and seasonality impacts.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record Urea sales of 155k tons in Feb-2025, down 25% YoY. Similarly, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to report subdued Urea sales of around 87k tons, marking a 54% YoY decline. In contrast, Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) may witness a 15% YoY increase in Urea off-take, arriving at 69k tons.
  • Cumulatively, Urea off-take declined by 32% YoY during 2MCY25. In terms of market share, FFC is expected to improve its position at 44%, up 3ppts YoY. Meanwhile, EFERT is likely to see a 10ppts YoY decline in market share to 25%, whereas FATIMA’s Urea market share is expected to rise to 22%, compared to 14% in the same period last year.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day February 28, 2025 - By JS Research

Feb 28 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The benchmark index KSE-100 closed at 113,252, declining by 0.5%. The market faced selling pressure in the energy sector, with stocks like MARI, POL, and PPL trading in the red. Despite buying interest in the banking sector, the overall sentiment remained cautious due to concerns over inflation and global economic uncertainties. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain volatile, with investors closely monitoring economic indicators and corporate earnings.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day February 25, 2025 - By JS Research

Feb 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index closed 198 points up after making an intraday high of 115,890 today. Investors’ optimism was spurred by anticipated fiscal incentives for the construction sector and positive economic indicators. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s supportive stance and robust economic data further bolstered confidence. The pre-budget rally suggests continued bullish sentiment, with hopes of IMF loan program expansion and strong remittance inflows driving future market gains
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day February 24, 2025 - By JS Research -- By JS Research

Feb 24 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged by 1,529 points (1.4%) to reach 114,330. Initially, stocks plunged over 900 points in the early hours of the session, but later buying spree helped recover the loss. Initially, the gain stemmed from cautious sentiment amid the ongoing result season, falling cement prices, and uncertainty ahead of the IMF review. However, the Finance Minister's reaffirmation of commitment to tackling tax evasion and corruption provides a positive outlook. Investors await the IMF review outcome, which could catalyze further market movement.