Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Opportunities on the horizon - By Insight Research
Feb 10 2025
Insight Securities
- Since Jun’23, HBL has underperformed its peer banks, primarily due to its higher operating and credit expenses, coupled with a lower share of current accounts in the deposit mix. Additionally, the bank’s strategic focus on future growth rather than aggressive payouts has kept its stock performance below peers, in our view. However, with a sharp decline in headline inflation and a subsequent reduction in policy rates, HBL stands to benefit as its cost of deposits will decline rapidly due to the lower share of current account, while lower inflation would keep operating expenses in check.
- We have revised our estimates for HBL, incorporating the impact of higher taxation on banks, which has been offset by lower credit loss provisions. We maintain our BUY stance on the bank, with a DDM & P/BV based target price of PKR199/sh for Dec’25. The stock is currently trading at a P/E & P/B of 4.6x & 0.6x on CY25 estimates, with a DY of ~10%.
- Key risk to our investment thesis are i) Lower than estimated deposit growth, ii) Deterioration in asset quality, iii) Higher than estimated operating cost and iv) Abrupt changes in regulatory framework.
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