Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at Rs1.95, down 37% YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL PA) profit clocked-in at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs1.95 in 4QCY24 against profit of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs3.11) in 4QCY23.
  • This cumulates into CY24 profit of Rs610mn (EPS Rs0.67) compared to profit of Rs9.2bn (EPS Rs7.63) in CY23.
  • The company did not announce any dividend during CY24
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Feb 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PVC prices dropped from USD 948/ton in June 2024 to USD 798/ton by year-end, which was a record low in recent years. This decline, driven by normalization of freight rates and supply chain constraints, put pressure on core delta which stood at USD 337/ton at the end of CY24, directly impacting EPCL’s margins and contributing to its poor financial performance.
  • Despite a tough year marked by a slowdown in the construction sector, domestic PVC demand grew by 8% due to cheaper imports from Indonesia & China. PVC sales volumes gradually increased on a QoQ basis by 10% on average due to EPCL's targeted pricing strategies, incentives and market confidence-building measures through which it sustained its market position.
  • Additionally, EPCL regained market share in caustic soda by onboarding new customers. Although domestic margins remained attractive, the Company maintained exports to support FX inflows. Supply to domestic Export-Oriented Units was sustained at 80%.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): EPCL: 4QCY24 EPS arrives at PKR 2.6, CY24 EPS to clocks-in at PKR 0.5 - By Taurus Research

Feb 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • EPCL reported a revenue of PKR 21.2Bn in 4QCY24, reflecting an increase of 11% YoY and 6% QoQ. Gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 14%, a significant decline from 27% in 4QCY23 but a notable recovery from the 5% margin in 3QCY24. The yearly dip in margins can be attributed to rising raw material costs driven by a surge in gas prices and lower core delta.
  • After struggling with losses throughout the first three quarters of CY24, EPCL achieved a turnaround with a positive PAT of PKR 2.3Bn in 4QCY24 mainly attributable to tax reversals and higher margins.
  • However, EPCL’s annual PAT for CY24 fell sharply to PKR 610Mn, a 93% plunge from PKR 9.2Bn in CY23. Wherein, profitability was mainly hit by subdued PVC demand especially from the construction sector and margin pressures due to surge in gas prices.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Tax reversal & improved margins drive profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 11 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR2.3), a 40%YoY decline from PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR3.7) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, primarily due to a tax reversal and better-than-expected gross margins. However, the annual decline in earnings is driven by lower gross margins and higher finance cost. On a sequential basis, the recovery from a loss of PkR2.0bn (LPS: PkR0.8) in 3Q is mainly due to improved gross margins.
  • Revenue increased by 11%YoY to PkR21.3bn, up from PkR19.2bn in SPLY, as higher PVC offtakes offset the impact of lower product prices.
  • Gross margins contracted to 14.1% from 26.9% in SPLY, primarily due to higher energy costs. Notably, gas prices for captive and process increased by 45%/15%YoY, averaging PkR3,000/2,150/mmbtu in 4QCY24, respectively, compared to an avg. of PkR2,067/1,867/mmbtu in SPLY. However, gross margins remained higher than expected, and we await further clarity on this.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at Rs1.95, down 37% YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL PA) profit clocked-in at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs1.95 in 4QCY24 against profit of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs3.11) in 4QCY23.
  • This cumulates into CY24 profit of Rs610mn (EPS Rs0.67) compared to profit of Rs9.2bn (EPS Rs7.63) in CY23.
  • The company did not announce any dividend during CY24
Engro Polymer and Chemicals Limited (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR2.3 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • EPCL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR2.1bn (EPS: PKR2.3) vs. PAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR4.4) in SPLY. The result is significantly above our expectation due to higher than estimated revenue, gross margins and tax credit in 4QCY24.
  • In 4QCY24, revenue increased by 11%/6% YoY/QoQ possibly due to better volumetric sales coupled with higher caustic soda prices.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 14.1%, up by 860bps QoQ, possibly due to premium charged over import parity price as core delta remained flat QoQ. However, we await further clarity on this.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL): 4QCY24 Preview: Loss expected as energy cost burden intensifies - By AKD Research

Feb 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL) to post a loss of PkR634mn (LPS: PkR0.7) in 4QCY24E, compared to a profit of PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR3.7) in SPLY.
  • We expect gross margins to contract to 7.9%, mainly due to higher energy prices with avg. gas prices for captive and process risen by 45%/15%YoY, respectively.
  • CY24 cumulative loss is anticipated at PkR2.9bn (LPS: PkR3.4), compared to a profit of PkR8.9bn (EPS: PkR9.1) in SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Pakistan Automobile: Strong auto sales momentum carried into Mar’25 - By Foundation Research

Apr 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In Mar’25, automobile sales grew 18% YoY, however, on a sequential basis volume declined 8% MoM to 11k units due to Ramadan effect. During 9MFY25, sales expanded by a mammoth 46% YoY to over 100k units. This surge can be attributed to declining interest rates, attractive auto financing schemes and promotional offers by both banks and auto assemblers. Player-wise breakdown portrays a notable volumetric surge of 84/87% YoY in INDU/SAZEW, respectively while HCAR recorded a decline of 35% YoY in Mar’25. Total automobile sales clocked in at 13k units (↓ 8/7% YoY/MoM) in Mar’25 whereas 9MFY25 sales were 127,463 units (↑20% YoY).
  • Positive sales growth remains prolific: The automobile sector witnessed a surge in sales during Mar’25 as Jeeps/Vans&LCVs/800/1300cc sales improved by 85/42/6/17% YoY while 1000c sales dropped by a sizeable 71% YoY. During 9MFY25, automobile sales surged 46% YoY to 100,868 units led by growth in INDU, HCAR, Pak Suzuki & SAZEW at 58%, 29%, 41% and 153% YoY, respectively. The healthy volumetric growth is on the back of (1) declining interest rates, (2) attractive auto financing schemes by banks & auto assemblers amid increasing market competition, (3) stable exchange rate and HRC prices, and (4) improving macroeconomic environment
  • INDU: INDU recorded volumes of 3,131 units, up 84% YoY (↑20% MoM) during Mar’25. The surge in sales is driven by a rise in sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaristo 2,378 units, a jump of 54% YoY (↑31% MoM), which we believe is owed to higher Yaris sales. Additionally, Fortuner+Hilux sales climbed 4.8x YoY (↓5% MoM) to 753 units with Hilux being the major contributor. During 9MFY25, sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris/Fortuner+Hilux swelled 49/90% YoY to 15,980/5,638 units respectively.
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Apr 9 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL PA) held its analyst briefing to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and outlook.
  • Mughal Iron & Steels Industries Ltd’s(MUGHAL PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 210Mn (EPS PKR 0.63, down 73% YoY) in 2QFY25 against PKR 773Mn (EPS PKR 2.30) in 2QFY24. This takes 1HFY25 profitability to PKR 217Mn (EPS PKR 0.65, down 83% YoY) as compared to profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS 3.84) in 1HFY24.
  • Currently, the company is operating at maximum operational capacity; capacity utilization of furnace plant for melting is 80% and 65-67% for re-rolling. Moreover, the production mix for girders and rebars is 40-45% and 50-55%, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Sales dropped MoM in Mar’25 due to Ramadan, prices in recovery phase - By Foundation Research

Apr 8 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pakistan cement industry dispatches notched down by 9.4% YoY in Mar’25 to 3.57Mn tons (9MFY25: down 1.5% YoY to 33.99Mn tons). Domestic sales plummeted 11.3% YoY to 2.96Mn tons (9MFY25: -6.6% YoY), while exports exhibited an increase of 0.6% YoY to 0.61Mn tons in Mar’25 (9MFY25: +28.1% YoY).
  • Local cement sales remained lackluster during Mar’25 MoM due to Ramadan effect and Eid-ul-fitr holidays. Exports shot up by 28.1% YoY in 9MFY25 as cement players continue to explore new export destinations given the prevailing weak local demand.
  • On a YoY basis, domestic cement sales declined 11.3% during Mar’25 YoY on the back of (1) rise in royalty rates, (2) cement dealers strike pertaining to WHT and implementation of Point of Sale (POS) in Jul’24, (3) hike in cement prices (FED increased to PKR 4/kg in FY25 Budget), (4) elevated construction costs, and (5) high base effect given that this year Ramadan fell during the month of Mar’25 (ie. 10 days earlier).
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Revving up for the new era - By Foundation Research

Apr 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In a rapidly evolving automotive landscape, SAZEW’s entry into Pakistan’s 4-wheeler market capitalizing on the surging demand for SUVs, marked a pivotal moment. At the heart of this transformation stood the company’s resolve at redefining the industry with its sustainable forward-thinking approach - leveraging Greenfield incentives and expanding into the electric and hybrid segments. With the expected resurgence in the Auto sector, our positive view is underpinned by the company’s (1) brand equity of “HAVAL” in the 4-wheeler market, (2) robust gross margins to upkeep bottom-line, (3) efforts to penetrate further into the EV and HEV segment solidifying its green foot prints and (4) growth in iconic “SAZGAR” 3-wheelers along with broad products offerings - diversifying operational risks. In the light of the above, we initiate coverage on SAZEW with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 1,504/sh, implying a 38% upside.
  • HAVAL's success story: HAVAL made its entry into the Pakistani market at a very opportune time. Where the SUV segment was slowly growing post the launch of KIA Sportage, MG-HS and Hyundai Tucson to name a few, HAVAL made a solid entry with the launch of Pakistan’s first locally assembled HEV. Consequently, the company has sold over 14k units in just 30 months. In 8MFY25, sales have exceeded 7k units and given the momentum, we opine reaching 12k mark in FY25 would not be a challenging feat. Plus, the collaboration with HIT to convert HAVAL H6 into a security vehicle and the recent MOU signed with Armed forces suggest robust volumetric growth going forward.
  • Elevated margins to stabilize but still remain higher than peers: SAZEW benefits greatly from its Greenfield status and AIDEP (2021-26) policy providing CD and ST concessions, which have resulted in stellar ~29% gross margins over the past 4 quarters compared to only ~10% when 3-wheelers was its main operating segment. Upwelling margins are expected to remain intact till FY26 when concessions end, whereby, we see them settling at ~16.5% in the longer term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Sluggish trend continues - By Foundation Research

Mar 17 2025


Foundation Securities


  • With the Rabi season ending and no major sowing being done, fertilizer offtake continues its sluggish trend. In Feb’25, Urea sales recorded a decline of 36/22% YoY/MoM to 347KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FATIMA urea offtake improved 42/24% YoY/MoM to 69KT in Feb’25, whereas FFC/EFERT recorded a decline of 35/52% YoY to 156/94KT, respectively. Industry DAP offtake dwindled 65/35% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to only 40KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined 83/86% YoY to 25/3KT, respectively, whereas FATIMA DAP offtake inclined 22/64% YoY/MoM to 4KT.
  • Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Feb’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined by 36/22% YoY/MoM in Feb’25, reaching 347KT. DAP offtake dropped 65/35% YoY/MoM to 40KT. NP offtake lessened/increased 46/19% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to 44KT, while CAN offtake deteriorated 3/12% YoY/MoM to 66KT. Industry urea inventory levels have stayed on the lower end due to no imports and lower production reaching 536KT in Feb’25. DAP inventory has also eased off to 160KT due to no imports in Feb’25. Companywise urea inventory was recorded at 67/280/168/21KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Feb’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 66/57KT.
  • FFC/EFERT offtake dropped YoY: FFC/EFERT urea offtake dwindled 35/52% YoY, respectively, to reach 156/94KT in Feb’25. We attribute this decline solely to the seasonality factor. Where the whole industry has undergone decline in offtake, FATIMA experienced a surge in Urea dispatches to the tune of 42% YoY to 69KT. This increase in sales is attributable to better gas availability in recent months.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Mar 13 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU PA) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and future outlook.
  • INDU posted net sales of PKR 84.8Bn (↑67% YoY) in 1HFY25, which were driven by surge in volumes. INDU sold 12,541 units (↑82% YoY) in 1HFY25, with contribution from Corolla+Yaris+Cross & Fortuner+Hilux of 9,633 & 2,908 units respectively, up 83% & 52% YoY.
  • The company’s gross margin improved from 9.3% to 13.8% in 1HFY25 given lower input cost aided by favorable exchange rate, cost optimization, and localization efforts. Additionally, investment in green energy has also been fruitful in reducing cost as Solar Energy contributes ~25% in the power mix.
Pakistan Automobile: Auto Sales remained upbeat in Feb’25 - By Foundation Research

Mar 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In Feb’25, automobile (PC&LCVs) sales grew 24% YoY, however, on a sequential basis volumes declined 27% MoM to 12k units as January effect dissipated. During 8MFY25, sales expanded by a significant 50% YoY to 89.8k units. This surge is accredited to declining interest rates, attractive auto financing schemes and promotional offers by both banks and companies. Player-wise breakdown portrays a notable volumetric surge of 28/35/113% YoY in INDU/HCAR/SAZEW respectively in Feb’25. Total automobile sales clocked in at 14,104 units (↑/↓ 5/30% YoY/MoM) in Feb’25 while 8MFY25 sales touched 114k units (↑24% YoY).
  • Positive sales growth momentum continues: The automobile sector witnessed a surge in sales during Feb’25 as 800/1000/1300cc sales improved modestly by 6/7/19% YoY. During 8MFY25, automobile sales increased 50% YoY to 89,770 units led by growth in INDU, HCAR, Pak Suzuki & SAZEW at 54%, 47%, 44% and 166% YoY respectively. The healthy volumetric growth is on the back of (1) monetary easing, (2) attractive auto financing schemes by banks amid increasing market competition, (3) stable exchange rates and HRC prices, and (4) improving macroeconomic environment.
  • INDU recorded volumes of 2,611 units, up 28% YoY (↓22% MoM) during Feb’25. The surge in sales is driven by a rise in sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris to 1,820 units, a marginal ↑3% YoY (↓15% MoM), with major portion coming from Yaris sales in our view. Additionally, despite tough competition from Ghandhara Automobiles (GAL) by their successful launch of JAC T9 Hunter (LCV), a direct competitor of Hilux, Fortuner+Hilux sales climbed 2.9x YoY (↓33% MoM) to 791 units. During 8MFY25, sales of Corolla+Cross+Yaris/Fortuner+Hilux expanded 48/74% YoY to 13,602/4,885 units respectively.
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate left unchanged at 12.0% - By Foundation Research

Mar 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • SBP surprised markets on Monday by keeping the policy rate steady at 12.0%, defying expectations of a 50-100 basis point cut. Although February's inflation rate came in lower than expected, the SBP cited concerns over volatile food prices, persistent core inflation, and renewed external account pressures as reasons for maintaining the rate. The central bank believes real interest rate remains sufficiently high to support ongoing macroeconomic stability. We believe that the pause was also warranted by a desire to appease the visiting IMF mission which is undertaking the 1st review of the USD 7.0Bn facility, and concerns that the full impact of the 1,000bps cut in policy rate over the last 6 reviews would manifest itself in the form of higher growth and imports over the next 6-12 months and disbalance the external account.
  • February's CPI inflation dropped to 1.5% YoY, its lowest level since Sept’15, primarily due to a decrease in food prices resulting from ample agricultural supplies. However, core inflation in rural areas remained high, with double-digit growth indicating persistent underlying price pressures. Looking ahead, SBP expects headline inflation to decline further before gradually rising and stabilizing within the 5-7% target range.
  • Despite the ongoing decline in manufacturing output, the SBP remains optimistic about economic growth, pointing to encouraging high-frequency indicators and reduced risks to Rabi crops. The SBP expects economic activity to pick up pace during the 1HCY25, driven by easing financial conditions and the delayed impact of previous policy rate cuts. The GDP growth forecast for FY25 remains unchanged at 2.5-3.5%. This outlook follows a modest 0.9% YoY economic expansion in 1QFY25.
Pakistan Economy: Another 100bps cut expected - By Foundation Research

Mar 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The Central Bank has been in hot pursuit of the nose-diving inflation over the last nine months trying to catch up with the curve and narrow the real interest rate gap which is still 10/5/3% on current, 1-yr forward and core measures, respectively. Moreover, inflation has averaged 5.9% in 8MFY25 and avg. inflation during FY25 is expected to clock-in at only 5.4% which is near the lower end of the 5-7% inflation target range of the SBP.
  • Viewed together with being in an IMF program, a surplus in the external account during 7MFY25, stable exchange rate and subdued growth outlook, we believe the Central Bank is poised to deliver another cut of 100bps in the policy rate taking it to 11.0% at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 10th Mar’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight and data dependent (as required by IMF).
Oil Marketing Companies: Volumes register uptick - By Foundation Research

Mar 4 2025


Foundation Securities


  • During the month of Feb’25, POL sales increasd 2% YoY (↓18% MoM) to 1.1mn tons amid pick up in economic activity and reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Product-wise breakdown reveals MS/FO sales jumped 2/7% YoY during Feb’25 whereas HSD underwent a decline of 4% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL/WAFI volumes plummeted 17/10/6% YoY during Jan’25. Total sales clocked-in at 10.5mn tons (↑4% YoY) during 8MFY25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 2% YoY in Feb’25 while white oil sales declined a mere 1% YoY. Sequentially, volumes went down 18% given seasonality. Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 556/428K tons, up/down 2/4% YoY (↓11/29% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD rose MoM to ~Rs258/267/ltr during the month. This takes 8MFY25 sales of MS/HSD to 4.9/4.5mn tons, reflecting growth of 4/9% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales grew 7% YoY to 53K tons during Feb’25 despite lower demand from power producers amid higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation. During 8MFY25, FO sales fell 42% YoY.
Current:
Open:
Volume:
Change: ()
High:
Low:
52 Week High:
Vol Avg(12 m):
Free Float:
52 Week Low:
Market Cap:
Total Share:

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI:

MACD Signals

MACD DAILY:
MACD WEEKLY:

Simple Moving Avg (SMA)

SMA(10):
SMA(30):
SMA(60):
SMA(200):

Performance

One Month:
Three Months:
Six Months:
Twelve Months:

Support & Resistance

Support 1:
Resistance 1:
Support 2:
Resistance 2:

High & Lows

Period
High
Low