Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • MLCF is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,633mn (EPS: PKR 1.56) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 22% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 18,009mn, indicating slight decline of 0.35%YoY.
  • We estimate gross margins at 31%, representing a decrease of 0.3ppt QoQ and 4.1ppt YoY.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings surge 3x QoQ on Higher Sales - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 3.7bn (EPS: PKR 3.57) vs. PKR 1.3bn (EPS: PKR 1.28) in the previous quarter, reflecting a 3x QoQ increase. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to higher than projected revenue and gross margins.
  • The company’s topline grew by 21% QoQ to PKR 19bn, likely driven by 17% QoQ increase in total dispatches and improved export prices. On a YoY basis, revenue went up by 5%, supported by higher bag prices despite a 6% YoY decline in dispatches.
  • Gross margins stood at 40% compared to 32% in the previous quarter, benefiting from improved margins on white cement, an efficient fuel mix, and a decline in coal prices.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs3.57, up by 66% YoY (Earnings higher than expectations) - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • MLCF announced its 2QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs3.7bn (EPS of Rs3.57), up by 66% YoY and by 178% QoQ.
  • The result came higher than expectations in 2QFY25 due to higher-than-expected gross margins and higher than expected other income.
  • Alongside the result, the company did not announce any cash dividend which is as per expectations.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 2QFY25 Result Review — Higher retention & lower taxes lift earning - By AKD Research

Feb 20 2025


AKD Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting consolidated profitability of PkR3.7bn (EPS: PkR3.6), up 67%YoY compared to PkR2.2bn (EPS: PkR2.1) in SPLY. Earnings came above our expectations due to higher-than anticipated gross margins, elevated other income, and lower taxation.
  • Revenue clocked in at PkR19.0bn in 2QFY25, up 5%YoY from PkR18.0bn in SPLY, as higher retention prices outweighed the impact of 6%YoY decline in offtakes. Betterthan-expected retention prices were likely driven by increased sales of white cement and hdPutty.
  • Gross margins improved to 39.8% from 35.3% in SPLY, mainly on the back of aforementioned higher retention prices and a decline in weighted avg. coal prices
Maple Leaf cement (MLCF): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR3.6 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 20 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf cement has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR3.7bn (EPS: PKR3.6) vs. PAT of PKR2.2bn (EPS: PKR2.1). The result is above our expectation due to higher-than expected gross margins.
  • In 2QFY25, revenue increased by 5%/21% YoY/QoQ mainly due to higher volumetric sales and better retention prices.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 39.8%, up by 450bps/825bps YoY/QoQ, possibly due to increased usage of alternate fuel.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • MLCF is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,633mn (EPS: PKR 1.56) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 22% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 18,009mn, indicating slight decline of 0.35%YoY.
  • We estimate gross margins at 31%, representing a decrease of 0.3ppt QoQ and 4.1ppt YoY.
Pakistan Cement: PIOC, MLCF & FCCL: 2QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Feb 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QFY25 earnings expectations for Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC), Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF), and Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL). PIOC and MLCF are expected to report a decline in earnings, with EPS likely to arrive at Rs6.2 and Rs1.47, reflecting a YoY decrease of 17% and 16%, respectively. This decline is primarily driven by lower local dispatches and higher royalty charge.
  • On the other hand, we expect FCCL to post an EPS of Rs1.45 during the quarter, up 34% YoY, largely attributed to a 19% rise in dispatches, following the company’s expansion, which has increased its capacity-based market share.
  • Punjab-based manufacturers continue to face pressure from the higher royalty charge, which adds Rs60-70/bag to manufacturing costs. However, cost efficiencies and declining Afghan and local coal prices are expected to partially offset this impact.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF): Playing the long game – By Insight Research

Jan 1 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple leaf cement, one of the giants in cement industry, continues to exhibit a strong core business, supported by its strong focus on cost optimization, through diverse fuel mix and increasing reliance on renewable energy in its power mix. However, the cement industry’s profitability is volatile due to cyclical nature of cement demand, influenced by the country’s recurring economic boom & bust cycles. To note, cement industry utilization has remained below 60% for the past 2 years, showcasing longevity of economic trough with no foreseeable catalyst to boost demand. To counter this inherent cyclicality, the company is strategically diversifying into stable businesses. MLCF is venturing into the hospital business and pursuing the acquisition of a fertilizer company, both of which offer more stability than cement business.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on MLCF with DCF based TP of PKR59/sh for Dec’25, providing 29% capital upside from last closing price. Our liking for the stock stems from the following facts i) Continuous focus toward operational efficiencies, ii) Investments in hospital and fertilizer business, iii) Trading at an attractive EV/ton and iv) Strong balance sheet.
  • Key risks to our investment thesis include: i) Slowdown in construction activity ii) Stiff price competition , iii) Increase in coal prices, iv) Higher than expected hike in energy prices and v) Change in regulatory environment.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF): Corporate briefing key takeaways – By JS Research

Nov 21 2024


JS Global Capital


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) conducted its corporate briefing yesterday to discuss the recent financial results and outlook. On a consolidated basis, MLCF posted FY24 earnings of Rs6,891mn, up 20% YoY. Meanwhile, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1,343mn for 1QFY25, down 17% YoY.
  • The company revealed that their average retention price for local grey cement during FY24 was Rs14,887/ton (744/bag). Meanwhile, retention for white cement in FY24 stood at Rs1,262/bag. Current Retention price for the company is Rs17,500 (875/bag). While the current MRP is Rs1,450/bag.
  • Average power cost for MLCF stood at Rs19/kWh for FY24 and remains more or less the same, currently. The company is meeting ~94% of its electricity requirements from captive power which includes 20MW solar, 25MW WHR and 40MW CFBs while the remaining 6% is being procured from grid. The company disclosed that the grid rate is Rs48.6/KWH.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways – By Topline Research

Nov 20 2024


Topline Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) conducted analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook.
  • Company’s average grey cement retention price stood at Rs14.8k/ton in FY24 compared to Rs13.4k/ton in FY23. Currently the average grey cement retention price stands at Rs17.5k/ton. While white cement retention prices are Rs18k/ton. Export price for the company stands at US$45/ton.
  • Raw material cost for the company, on consolidated basis, increased to ~Rs3.9bn in FY24 compared to ~Rs2.9bn in FY23. This is an increase of 34% despite lower production in FY24. Main reason for increase was royalty on limestone increasing to Rs250/ton from Rs115/ton in FY23.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): FY24 & 1QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Nov 20 2024


Taurus Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF) is part of the Kohinoor Maple Leaf Group which also owns Kohinoor Textile Mills Limited and Maple Leaf Capital Limited. MLCF has two subsidiaries; Novacare Hospitals Private Limited and Maple Leaf Power Limited. It has a strong presence in the North and Central regions of Pakistan which constitute 97% of its sales. The remainder is exported to Afghanistan, Maldives, Oman, Qatar, Sri Lanka, South Africa, U.A.E., Yemen, and Tanzania.
  • At present, MLCF operates five production lines; four for grey and one for white cement. It has a 90% market share in white cement in Pakistan. MLCF has two separate plants for white and grey cement and in FY24 it added a state-of-the-art process plant sourced from FLSmidth. This enhanced its total capacity for clinker production to 7.8Mn tons annually or 26,000 tons daily. MLCF produces the following cement products: Ordinary Portland Cement, Sulphate Resistant Cement, Low Alkali Cement, White Cement, Wall Coat, HD Putty, and White Plast. It is also working on CPEC projects with Chinese clients.
  • MLCF’s FY24 topline grew by 7%YoY and was recorded at PKR 66Bn. Gross margin increased by 3%YoY to 34%. MLCF recorded PKR 6Bn in PAT at a net profit margin of 10.4% compared to 9.2% in FY23. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 6.51. MLCF’s taxation also decreased by 23%YoY. It also announced a competitive bid for 161Mn shares of AGL
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research

Apr 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
  • Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
  • MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.
Economy: Trade Tensions Trigger a Global Sell-Off - By AHCML Research

Apr 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Global stock markets tumbled after a surprise move by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced new tariffs on imports, sparking fresh fears of a trade war. Countries like China responded with their own import duties, intensifying global tensions. Investors are now worried that escalating trade barriers could hurt global growth, profits, and jobs. Stock markets across Asia, Europe, and U.S. futures have all dropped sharply, as fear and uncertainty take the lead over company fundamentals. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for signs of de-escalation from world leaders.
  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recently faced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating global trade tensions and domestic economic factors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plummeted over 5%, triggering a temporary halt in trading. This sharp decline was largely a reaction to the U.S. government's implementation of new tariffs on imports, which unsettled global markets and prompted widespread investor concern.
  • The imposition of these tariffs has raised fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting investor sentiment worldwide. Pakistan, facing a steep 29% tariff on its exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable. In response, the Pakistani government announced plans to send a delegation to Washington to negotiate relief from these tariffs.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: Pakistan’s Current Account Cumulative surplus overshadows the monthly deficit - By AHCML Research

Mar 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 12mn in Feb’25 compared to deficit of USD 399mn in Jan’25. Moreover, CA balance was in surplus of USD 71mn in Feb’24.
  • Exports of goods reduced by 13% MoM to USD 2,593mn in Feb’25, similarly, imports reduced by 8% MoM to USD 5,023mn, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 2,430mn, down by a 1% MoM.
  • Exports of services grew by a meagre 2% MoM, reaching USD 709mn, while imports of services reduced by 1% MoM to USD 1,013mn, reducing the deficit on balance of services to USD 304mn.
Economy: SBP Keeps Benchmark Rate at 12%, Balancing Growth and External Account Stability - By AHCML Research

Mar 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% in the current monetary policy review. This decision reflects a careful balance in response to evolving economic conditions, particularly in light of inflation, external sector challenges, and growing signs of economic recovery.
  • The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explained that inflation in February 2025 came in lower than anticipated, largely due to a drop in both food and energy prices. However, the Committee cautioned that while inflation has eased, there are still risks related to the volatility in these prices. Core inflation, in particular, remains stubbornly high, which means any rebound in food and energy prices could reverse the current downward trend in overall inflation.
  • Despite the inflation concerns, economic activity has picked up, as seen in indicators like automobile sales, cement consumption, and the growth in private sector credit.
Cement: Results review 2QFY25: PAT up by 54% YoY - By AHCML Research

Mar 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The 2QFY25 financial results of 15 listed cement companies reflected strong growth in profitability, driven by higher dispatches, improved margins, and lower finance costs. The sector reported a cumulative PAT of PKR 34,749 million, up 54% YoY and 46% QoQ.
  • Net sales stood at PKR 196,657 million, up 21% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by a 23% QoQ increase in total dispatches.
  • Gross margins recorded at 33%, up 3ppt QoQ and 5ppt YoY, primarily due to reduction in international coal prices.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Oil Marketing Companies: Exploration Sector Performance 2QFY25 -- By AHCML Research

Mar 5 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The exploration sector revealed a mixed performance during 2QFY25, companies has posted net sales and PAT of ~PKR 217.32bn and ~PKR 87.51bn in 2QFY25, down by 13.23% YoY and 37.33% YoY, respectively. major companies include OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
  • The companies’ profitability was negatively impacted by lower realized prices, forced curtailment by SNGPL and UPL and absence of tax rebate which was in SPLY.
  • As the negative price variance stems from the PKR appreciation against the USD, averaging PKR 278/USD in 2QFY25 versus PKR 287/USD in the corresponding period, alongside a decline in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 87/bbl to USD 76/bbl over the same timeframe.
Pakistan Banks: Performance CY’24: Rate cut Headwinds Hindered the Headings - By AHCML Research

Mar 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The combined profit after tax of the top five banks—HBL, UBL, NBP, MCB, and ABL— deteriorated by 5.5%YoY to PKR82bn in 4QCY24, compared to PKR87bn in 4QCY23.
  • In 2024, Pakistan’s banking sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching historic milestones despite facing economic headwinds. UBL stood firm, delivering an impressive profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 75.78 billion, a testament to its strength in a challenging year. However, the journey wasn’t without hurdles—banks had to contend with a sharp 1,000 basis points cut in the policy rate, which put pressure on net interest margins and profitability.
  • In CY’24, Net Interest Income (NII) declined by approximately 6.6%YoY albeit witnessed an uptick of 15% on QoQ basis. The drop was primarily driven by the cuts in the policy rate and declining yields on investment assets. However, banks strategically shifted their focus to nonfunded income sources, which showed a 48% increase in 4QCY’24 compared to the same period last year (SPLY), a notable 68% rise on quarterly basis, and a 61.6%YoY growth in CY’24.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
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