Pakistan Economy: Jan’25 CAB posts USD 420Mn deficit - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account Balance (CAB) posted a deficit of USD 420Mn in Jan’25, after three consecutive months of surplus. This is also the highest monthly deficit recorded since Jun’24. However, cumulatively, 7MFY25 CAB remains in a surplus of USD 758Mn compared to a deficit of ~USD 1.8Bn over the SPLY.
  • An analysis of the components of the current account reveals a massive 37%MoM increase in the trade deficit owing to 11%MoM increase in imports as against a 4%MoM drop in exports. Wherein, the MoM growth in imports was primarily driven by: i) Petroleum products (up 25%MoM); ii) Metals i.e. engineering related (up 27%MoM); and iii) Machinery (up 11%MoM), respectively— emerging signs of recovering aggregate demand, going forward.
  • Elsewhere, MoM exports were down 4% mainly due to a 19% MoM fall in food exports led by the drop in exports of rice and sugar. Elsewhere, the services deficit continued to grow, up 30% MoM in Jan’25—resulting in a cumulative services deficit of ~USD 1.9Bn FYTD, up 14% over the similar period last year.

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Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Pakistan Economy: Tariffs put USD 115Trn world economy at risk - By Taurus Research

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Global equity markets plunged enormously in the aftermath of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on about 90 countries by the US President Donald Trump, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk. Wherein, the new tariff rates seemed to have been somewhat ludicrously calculated; inflicting disparate punishment on several countries, as they scrambled to renegotiate.
  • The tariffs include a 10% base-line tariff on all imports into the US, with additional tariffs of up to 34% on China (now raised to 145%), 20% on the EU, 29% on Pakistan, 26% on India and so on.
  • Accordingly, the MSCI World & the MSCI Emerging Markets Indices, which cover 85% of the free-float adjusted large-cap and mid-cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, respectively, were down ~11% owing to the announcement of the tariffs, with trillions of dollars being wiped out from the financial markets globally—amidst heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk.
Pakistan Auto: Mar’25: Passenger Vehicle Sales up 18%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • According to data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA), automobile sales in Mar’25 exhibited an increase of 56% in volumes for passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), and Jeeps, totaling 100,529 units in 9MFY25. Subsequently MoM sales experienced a 18% increase compared to Feb’25. INDU’s and SAZEW’s market share rose by 7ppts and 1ppts respectively, compared to the last month. Whereas, market share for, PSMC and HCAR declined by 3pptsMoM, and 4pptsMoM, respectively.
  • YoY growth in of sales during Mar’25 can be attributed to several factors, including falling inflation, lower fuel prices, reduction in interest rates and stable car prices along with the release of new variants. Moreover, the Government is also mulling to increase the cap on auto financing from the PKR 3Mn to PKR 6Mn. Regardless, of Feb’25, auto financing stood at ~PKR 317Bn, reflecting a 2%MoM increase.
Systems Limited (SYS): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Systems Limited posted a PAT of ~PKR 6.12Bn in CY24, down 29%YoY from ~PKR 8.56Bn in CY23, mainly due to PKR appreciation and higher retention costs. Management noted profits could have been 48% higher under historical currency trends and 10% higher with a stable exchange rate.
  • Despite the profit drop, revenue grew 20%YoY to ~PKR 38.53Bn, with 94% earned in foreign currency. Regional revenue was led by the Middle East & Africa (59%), followed by North America (21%), Pakistan (13%), Europe (4%) and Asia specific (3%), respectively.
  • Export revenue made up 90% of the total, with domestic contributions expected to remain around 10%.
Fertilizer:1QCY25E earnings to drop on lower off-take - By Taurus Research

Apr 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness a decline in profitability (24%YoY) on the back of drastic drop in off-take during 1QCY25 i.e. Urea down 40%YoY and DAP down 50% YoY, attributed to continuous disruption in water supply (Rabi Season 2024-25), lower farm economics, weak outlook for wheat and seasonality effect i.e. Ramazan and Eid Holidays.
  • However, EFERT’s market share dropped to 23% (down 10pptsYoY) in 1QCY25 owning to higher gas tariffs compared to FFC along with increase in the market share post amalgamation with FFBL during 2HCY24 (up 13pptsYoY in 1QFY25). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has put significant pressure on the margins (down 7pptsYoY in 1QCY25) of EFERT, forcing it to sell Urea at a discounted price (dropped by PKR 100/bag during 1QCY25).
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 9 2025


Taurus Securities


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  • With regards to the non-ferrous sales, the management discussed that the Company’s exports of Copper and Aluminum would remain subdued due to ongoing geo-political issues (US – China trade war), recent price competition in the EVs globally and sluggish growth in China’s industrial activity. However, the management expects slight recovery in exports on the back of anticipating some recovery in Chinese Economy during 2nd half of 2025.
  • The management shared some views regarding benefiting from the recent changes globally i.e. imposition of US tariffs. They told that the US administration did not discuss specifically about imposing tariffs on steel products. So, they expect steel market to remain stable and may not consider a backlash on the recent changes in global dynamics
Hoechst Pakistan Limited (HPL): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 8 2025


Taurus Securities


  • HPL, formerly known as Sanofi-Aventis Pakistan Limited, has experienced a remarkable transformation since its acquisition by Packages Group. The Company has seen significant growth, reflected in its recent financial performance, including its highest-ever PAT. In FY24, HPL reported a revenue of ~PKR 26Bn, marking a 25%YoY increase from PKR 21Bn in FY23.
  • The Company's margins improved by 6ppts, reaching 32%, driven by a favorable sales mix and a robust product portfolio. Notably, HPL achieved a PAT of ~PKR 1.8Bn, up 4.2xYoY from PKR 361Mn in the previous year. This impressive growth can be attributed to higher sales, enhanced gross margins, effective cost optimization, and a strategic pricing approach.
  • HPL's sales mix is composed of 30% non-essential drugs and 70% essential medications. The revenue stream is generated from 54% imported medicines, primarily essential drugs, and 46% locally produced products. The Company’s portfolio features well-known medications, including Flagyl, Clexane, Haemaccel, and Selsun Blue.