Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs15.86, up by 3% YoY – Earnings in-line with expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein the company recorded profit of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs15.86), up 3% YoY. On QoQ basis, earnings significantly increased by 434%. This takes 1H2025 earnings to Rs3.6bn (EPS of Rs19.01), down 31% YoY vs Rs5.2bn (EPS of Rs27.36) in 1H2024.
  • Though earnings were largely in line with expectations, however, gross margins have clocked in at lower than our estimates and were compensated by tax reversal.
  • Gross margins recorded at 25.4% in 2QFY25, down by ~350bps on QoQ basis despite higher sales. We attribute this decline in gross margins to higher sale under low priced/value Govt. scheme.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Positives are largely priced in Downgraded to HOLD - By Topline Research

Mar 11 2025


Topline Securities


  • We downgrade our previous BUY stance on Millat Tractors (MTL) to HOLD as we believe positive pertaining to clearance of backlog of dividend, current Punjab tractor scheme, and rescind of SRO 563(1)/2022 are priced-in in the share price of the company. Government of Punjab announced subsidized scheme of 9500 tractors for farmers of province of Punjab, a major portion of it is already delivered, in our view.
  • EPS expected at Rs48/59 in FY25/26: We expect company to post earnings of Rs48/59 per share in FY25/26. The earnings are likely to grow 23% in FY26 due to low base effect of volumetric sales in 1Q of FY25. We expect company to witness sales growth of 24% with unit sales reaching at 31,500 in FY26F from 25,407 in FY25E.
  • We have assumed gross margins of 25.8% and 25.5% in FY25 and FY26 for tractor business, respectively after taking cue from 2QFY25 results.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs15.86, up by 3% YoY – Earnings in-line with expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein the company recorded profit of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs15.86), up 3% YoY. On QoQ basis, earnings significantly increased by 434%. This takes 1H2025 earnings to Rs3.6bn (EPS of Rs19.01), down 31% YoY vs Rs5.2bn (EPS of Rs27.36) in 1H2024.
  • Though earnings were largely in line with expectations, however, gross margins have clocked in at lower than our estimates and were compensated by tax reversal.
  • Gross margins recorded at 25.4% in 2QFY25, down by ~350bps on QoQ basis despite higher sales. We attribute this decline in gross margins to higher sale under low priced/value Govt. scheme.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR 16, up 3%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 16, DPS: PKR 45, PAT: ~PKR 19.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT arrived at ~PKR 3Bn up 3%YoY/ 4.3xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP, positioning MTL as a significant beneficiary of the program.
  • On quarterly basis, the finance cost remained unchanged whereas it rose 3.5xYoY compared to the SPLY.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 expected EPS of PKR 18.14, up 18%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 13 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: 19th February 2025
  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 18.14, PAT: ~PKR 3.5Bn, up 5.1xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 27%YoY/2.9xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT is expected to arrive at ~PKR 3.5Bn up 18%YoY/ 5.1xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs15.86, up by 3% YoY – Earnings in-line with expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein the company recorded profit of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs15.86), up 3% YoY. On QoQ basis, earnings significantly increased by 434%. This takes 1H2025 earnings to Rs3.6bn (EPS of Rs19.01), down 31% YoY vs Rs5.2bn (EPS of Rs27.36) in 1H2024.
  • Though earnings were largely in line with expectations, however, gross margins have clocked in at lower than our estimates and were compensated by tax reversal.
  • Gross margins recorded at 25.4% in 2QFY25, down by ~350bps on QoQ basis despite higher sales. We attribute this decline in gross margins to higher sale under low priced/value Govt. scheme.
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