United Bank Limited (UBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 21.3; PAT up 87%YoY/42%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 21.3. 4QCY24 PAT up 87%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 61.4. CY24 PAT up 34%YoY – above expectations. UBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 11.00, taking the full year payout to PKR 44.00/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 84%YoY/32%QoQ, which can be attributed to the substantial decrease in the cost of funds on the back of lower interest rates, offsetting the drop in yields; as well as likely build-up in current accounts during 4QCY24.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 24xYoY/64%QoQ, driven by exorbitant capital gains of ~PKR 19.7Bn (pre-tax PKR 16/sh.) booked by the Bank, which supported the bottom-line earnings significantly. Fee income was down 45% during 4QCY24.
United Bank Limited (UBL): Earnings Revised Up; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

May 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised our earnings estimates for United Bank Limited (UBL) upward by 55% for both 2025 and 2026 to Rs96/share and Rs85/share, respectively following the incorporation of 1Q2025 results.
  • UBL’s 1Q2025 results came above industry expectations, primarily driven by higher-thanexpected Net Interest Income (NII). This was supported by strong growth in current account deposits, increased repo borrowings with improved spreads, and higher than expected capital gains.
  • Strong Deposit Growth: UBL reported a strong total deposit growth of 23% YoY and 29% QoQ in 1Q2025 compared to peer banks (HBL, MCB, ABL, NBP, MEBL) average of 15% YoY and 5% QoQ. UBL’s current account deposits also showed robust performance, rising by 50% YoY and 20% QoQ compared to peer banks average of 16% YoY and 11% QoQ. As a result, UBL’s current account mix improved to 54% as of Mar-2025, compared to 44% in Mar-2024.
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 1QCY25 Result Review — Higher NII led to earnings incline -- By AKD Research

Apr 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 1QCY25 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR36.1bn (EPS: PkR28.8) for the quarter, up 126%YoY/39%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher than expected NII and provisioning reversal. In addition to the result, bank announced an interim cash payout of PkR11/sh and stock split in the ratio of 2 shares for 1 share held.
  • NII recorded at PkR84.2bn in 1QCY25, up by 200%YoY/30%QoQ, primarily due to higher investment book, up 60%YoY/27%QoQ and advances, up 7.1%YoY, compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR17.0bn in 1QCY25, down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, on the back of 55%YoY/69%QoQ dropped in gain on sale of securities. However, fee income increased to PkR7.5bn during the quarter, up 26%YoY/113%QoQ
United Bank Limited (UBL): Result Review: UBL 1QCY25 EPS Rs28.9, DPS Rs11 - By Sherman Research

Apr 16 2025


Sherman Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced 1QCY25 results today wherein the bank posted unconsolidated net earnings of Rs35.6bn (EPS Rs28.9) compared to profit of Rs15.6bn, up 2.3xYoY.
  • Overall earnings remained higher than market expectations while the bank also announced interim dividend of Rs11 per share in 1QCY25 which is similar to last year.
  • Moreover, Board of Directors have recommended to sub-divide the shares from face value of Rs10/share to Rs5/share which is subject to shareholders approval.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Pakistan Cement: Dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches for Feb’25 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, an increase of 10%YoY, driven by 7%/34%YoY growth in local and export offtakes, respectively.
  • Profitability of AKD cement universe posted an increase of 29%YoY in 1HFY25, due to ease in coal prices and declining finance cost.
  • We expect FY25E cement offtakes to decline by 2%YoY, driven by a 6%YoY contraction in local dispatches, while exports are expected to rise.
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Sharp rise in NFI income leads earnings incline - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR25bn (EPS: PkR20.4) for the quarter, up 85%YoY/36%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher gain on sale of securities expense and higher NII. This brings full-year profitability to PkR74.2bn (EPS: PkR60.3), reflecting a 34%YoY increase. In addition to the result, bank announced a final cash payout of PkR11/sh, taking total dividends during CY24 to PkR44/sh (payout: 73%)
  • NII recorded at PkR64.7bn in 4QCY24, up by 74%YoY/25%QoQ, primarily due to higher advances and investment book compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR27.2bn in 4QCY24, up 155%YoY/62%QoQ, on the back of PkR18.5bn in gain on sale of securities (up 16xYoY/3xQoQ). However, fee income dropped to PkR3.5bn during the quarter, down 31%YoY/45%QoQ.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 21.3; PAT up 87%YoY/42%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 21.3. 4QCY24 PAT up 87%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 61.4. CY24 PAT up 34%YoY – above expectations. UBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 11.00, taking the full year payout to PKR 44.00/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 84%YoY/32%QoQ, which can be attributed to the substantial decrease in the cost of funds on the back of lower interest rates, offsetting the drop in yields; as well as likely build-up in current accounts during 4QCY24.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 24xYoY/64%QoQ, driven by exorbitant capital gains of ~PKR 19.7Bn (pre-tax PKR 16/sh.) booked by the Bank, which supported the bottom-line earnings significantly. Fee income was down 45% during 4QCY24.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 21.3; PAT up 87%YoY/42%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 21.3. 4QCY24 PAT up 87%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 61.4. CY24 PAT up 34%YoY – above expectations. UBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 11.00, taking the full year payout to PKR 44.00/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 84%YoY/32%QoQ, which can be attributed to the substantial decrease in the cost of funds on the back of lower interest rates, offsetting the drop in yields; as well as likely build-up in current accounts during 4QCY24.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 24xYoY/64%QoQ, driven by exorbitant capital gains of ~PKR 19.7Bn (pre-tax PKR 16/sh.) booked by the Bank, which supported the bottom-line earnings significantly. Fee income was down 45% during 4QCY24.
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