Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 9.8; PAT down 2%YoY/up 2%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 9.8. 4QCY24 PAT down 2%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 39.9. CY24 PAT PKR 57.8Bn – above expectations. HBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 4.25, taking the full year payout to PKR 16.3/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 6%YoY/5%QoQ on account of lower net interest margin due to reduction in the policy rate by the SBP during the year, resulting in drop asset yields offsetting the decrease in the cost of funds.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 86%YoY/69%QoQ. Wherein, other income was up substantially on a sequential basis on the back of gain on closure/sale of branches amounting to PKR 14.3Bn. Fee income was up 4%QoQ. Capital gains down 27%QoQ.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 4QCY24 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 4QCY24, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR14.4bn (EPS: PkR9.8) for the quarter (down 3%YoY/flat on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced final cash dividend of PkR4.25/share, taking total CY24 dividend to PkR16.25/sh (vs. PKR9.5sh in CY23).
  • Total deposits grew by 5.5% from Dec’23 to ~PKR 4.4 trn, with domestic deposits rising by PKR180 bn (5%), primarily driven by an increase in current accounts (PKR 176 bn). Average domestic deposits saw a significant YoY increase of PKR 627 Bn, mainly supported by PKR 405 Bn in low cost deposits. International deposits also expanded to $2.2 Bn, reflecting a $192 million increase over Dec’23. Bank expects 17-18% growth in deposits during CY25
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 20 2025


Insight Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook of the bank. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • The bank retained its leadership in managing trade volumes and consumer lending segments.
  • In response to a question about the transition to Islamic banking, management stated that currently, one-third of the bank's operations are already Islamic. Moving forward, the bank remains committed to adhering to SBP’s guidelines for a complete shift toward Islamic banking.
Habib Bank (HBL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • Habib Bank (HBL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance for 2024 and future outlook.
  • HBL's deposits grew by 6% YoY to Rs4.37trn in 2024. Management expects depositsto grow by 17-18% in 2025 due to the low base.
  • HBL's advances grew by 31% to Rs2.435trn, taking the gross ADR to 59% in 2024. For 2025, management expects advances growth to be 12-13%.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR9.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • HBL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR14.6bn (EPS: PKR9.8) vs. PAT of PKR15.9bn (EPS: PKR10.1) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and other income.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR60.3bn in 4QCY24, down by 6%/5% YoY/QoQ. The decline is attributable to falling asset yields.
  • Non markup income inched up by 76%/69% YoY/QoQ, driven by fee income and gain on securities. Moreover, the bank recorded other income of ~PKR14.5bn in 4QCY24, attributable to sale of branches.

Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Result Review: HBL 4QCY24 EPS Rs9.1, DPS Rs4.25 - By Sherman Research

Feb 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited (HBL) announced 4QCY24 results today wherein the bank posted an unconsolidated profit-after-tax of Rs13.4bn (EPS Rs9.1) down 5%YoY. The decline in earnings is primarily due to decrease in net interest earned, higher provisioning during the period and higher non-interest expenses.
  • HBL’s interest earned clocked in at Rs176bn, down 7%YoY due to decrease in total earning asset yield, down by 3.6ppt reported at 15% during 4QCY24, indicating the impact of a 1,000bps cut in the policy rate during CY24.
  • Bank’s interest expense reached Rs121bn, down 9%YoY in 4QCY24 owing to decline in policy rate as total cost of funds lowered to 9.44%, down 2.54ppt.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 9.8; PAT down 2%YoY/up 2%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 9.8. 4QCY24 PAT down 2%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 39.9. CY24 PAT PKR 57.8Bn – above expectations. HBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 4.25, taking the full year payout to PKR 16.3/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 6%YoY/5%QoQ on account of lower net interest margin due to reduction in the policy rate by the SBP during the year, resulting in drop asset yields offsetting the decrease in the cost of funds.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 86%YoY/69%QoQ. Wherein, other income was up substantially on a sequential basis on the back of gain on closure/sale of branches amounting to PKR 14.3Bn. Fee income was up 4%QoQ. Capital gains down 27%QoQ.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Opportunities on the horizon - By Insight Research

Feb 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • Since Jun’23, HBL has underperformed its peer banks, primarily due to its higher operating and credit expenses, coupled with a lower share of current accounts in the deposit mix. Additionally, the bank’s strategic focus on future growth rather than aggressive payouts has kept its stock performance below peers, in our view. However, with a sharp decline in headline inflation and a subsequent reduction in policy rates, HBL stands to benefit as its cost of deposits will decline rapidly due to the lower share of current account, while lower inflation would keep operating expenses in check.
  • We have revised our estimates for HBL, incorporating the impact of higher taxation on banks, which has been offset by lower credit loss provisions. We maintain our BUY stance on the bank, with a DDM & P/BV based target price of PKR199/sh for Dec’25. The stock is currently trading at a P/E & P/B of 4.6x & 0.6x on CY25 estimates, with a DY of ~10%.
  • Key risk to our investment thesis are i) Lower than estimated deposit growth, ii) Deterioration in asset quality, iii) Higher than estimated operating cost and iv) Abrupt changes in regulatory framework.
Chenab Limited (CHBL): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 27 2025



  • In FY24, Chenab Limited (CHBL) reported a net loss of PKR 326.21 million (LPS: PKR 2.84) compared to a net loss of PKR 405.14 million (LPS: PKR 3.52) in the SPLY. In 1QFY25, the company recorded a net loss of PKR 111.82 million (LPS: PKR 0.97), higher than the net loss of PKR 45.03 million (LPS: PKR 0.39) in the SPLY.
  • The management disclosed that Chenab Limited is operating at 25% unit utilization. To optimize production capacity, the company is engaged in toll manufacturing of fabrics for the local market.
  • Gross profit for FY24 stood at PKR 10.87 million, impacted by higher fixed costs. The increase in freight costs, driven by the Red Sea crisis, further escalated selling and distribution expenses.
Pakistan Banks: Earnings Revised; MEBL and HBL Preferred Picks Maintained – By Topline Research

Nov 29 2024


Topline Securities


  • We have revisited our banking universe earnings following recent developments including (1) changes in the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) for both conventional and Islamic banks, (2) key takeaways from recent discussions with banks and analyst briefing meetings, and (3) revision in our deposit growth rate assumption.
  • To recall, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has removed the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) requirement for all conventional banks on deposits from financial institutions, public sector enterprises, and public limited companies. The MDR will now only be applicable to deposits of individual account holders. While in case of Islamic Banks, Central bank has imposed minimum profit sharing rate on saving deposits of individuals, details are mentioned on next page.
  • This shall be effective from January 01, 2025
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 9.8; PAT down 2%YoY/up 2%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 9.8. 4QCY24 PAT down 2%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 39.9. CY24 PAT PKR 57.8Bn – above expectations. HBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 4.25, taking the full year payout to PKR 16.3/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 6%YoY/5%QoQ on account of lower net interest margin due to reduction in the policy rate by the SBP during the year, resulting in drop asset yields offsetting the decrease in the cost of funds.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 86%YoY/69%QoQ. Wherein, other income was up substantially on a sequential basis on the back of gain on closure/sale of branches amounting to PKR 14.3Bn. Fee income was up 4%QoQ. Capital gains down 27%QoQ.
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