United Bank Ltd (UBL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Sharp rise in NFI income leads earnings incline - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR25bn (EPS: PkR20.4) for the quarter, up 85%YoY/36%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher gain on sale of securities expense and higher NII. This brings full-year profitability to PkR74.2bn (EPS: PkR60.3), reflecting a 34%YoY increase. In addition to the result, bank announced a final cash payout of PkR11/sh, taking total dividends during CY24 to PkR44/sh (payout: 73%)
  • NII recorded at PkR64.7bn in 4QCY24, up by 74%YoY/25%QoQ, primarily due to higher advances and investment book compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR27.2bn in 4QCY24, up 155%YoY/62%QoQ, on the back of PkR18.5bn in gain on sale of securities (up 16xYoY/3xQoQ). However, fee income dropped to PkR3.5bn during the quarter, down 31%YoY/45%QoQ.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Pakistan Cement: Dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches for Feb’25 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, an increase of 10%YoY, driven by 7%/34%YoY growth in local and export offtakes, respectively.
  • Profitability of AKD cement universe posted an increase of 29%YoY in 1HFY25, due to ease in coal prices and declining finance cost.
  • We expect FY25E cement offtakes to decline by 2%YoY, driven by a 6%YoY contraction in local dispatches, while exports are expected to rise.
United Bank Ltd (UBL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Sharp rise in NFI income leads earnings incline - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR25bn (EPS: PkR20.4) for the quarter, up 85%YoY/36%QoQ. The result is significantly above our expectations due to higher gain on sale of securities expense and higher NII. This brings full-year profitability to PkR74.2bn (EPS: PkR60.3), reflecting a 34%YoY increase. In addition to the result, bank announced a final cash payout of PkR11/sh, taking total dividends during CY24 to PkR44/sh (payout: 73%)
  • NII recorded at PkR64.7bn in 4QCY24, up by 74%YoY/25%QoQ, primarily due to higher advances and investment book compared to SPLY.
  • Non-Interest Income clocked in at PkR27.2bn in 4QCY24, up 155%YoY/62%QoQ, on the back of PkR18.5bn in gain on sale of securities (up 16xYoY/3xQoQ). However, fee income dropped to PkR3.5bn during the quarter, down 31%YoY/45%QoQ.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 21.3; PAT up 87%YoY/42%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 21.3. 4QCY24 PAT up 87%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 61.4. CY24 PAT up 34%YoY – above expectations. UBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 11.00, taking the full year payout to PKR 44.00/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 84%YoY/32%QoQ, which can be attributed to the substantial decrease in the cost of funds on the back of lower interest rates, offsetting the drop in yields; as well as likely build-up in current accounts during 4QCY24.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 24xYoY/64%QoQ, driven by exorbitant capital gains of ~PKR 19.7Bn (pre-tax PKR 16/sh.) booked by the Bank, which supported the bottom-line earnings significantly. Fee income was down 45% during 4QCY24.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Fourth discovery at Spinwam-1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Apr 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a milestone fourth discovery at the Spinwam-1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 70.3mmcfd of gas and 310bpd of oil (at choke size of 64/64”). The latest discovery is anticipated to push cumulative output from the field to 127.6mmcfd of gas and 569bpd of oil.
  • We estimate Spinwam-1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR13.35/sh for MARI and PkR2.37/sh for OGDC. Notably, the incremental EPS impact from the latest find comes out to be PkR7.4/1.3 per share for MARI and OGDC, respectively.
Economy: IMF supplements EFF program with Resilience and Sustainability Facility - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The IMF team has reached SLA with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of EFF and a new 28-month arrangement of US$1.3bn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Fund recognizes Pakistan's substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite a challenging global environment.
  • Successful completion of first review would pave the way for KSE-100 to reach 165,215 by Dec’25.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
Systems Limited (SYS): 4QCY24 Result Review - Earnings up 32% YoY, with MENA region at the helm - By AKD Research

Mar 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4QCY24 financial results today, wherein the company posted Profit after Tax (PAT) of PkR2.0bn (EPS: PkR6.9) vs. PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY, up 31.5%YoY. However, earnings were below our estimate, primarily due to higher than anticipated operating expenses and impairment losses. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR6.0/sh and announced a share split in a 5:1 ratio.
  • Company reported revenue of PkR19.2bn in 4QCY24, compared to PkR16.1bn in SPLY, up 19.0%YoY. The growth in topline is attributed to robust growth of 17.4%/13.6%/84.3%YoY in the MENA/North America/Europe regions, respectively.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 24.4%, up from 22.0% in 4QCY23. This increase can primarily be attributed to improvement in gross margins in North America region to 30.2% from 25.7% in 4QCY23. In contrast, MENA region saw a drop in gross margins to 26.8%, declining from 28.0% in 4QCY23.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Second discovery at Spinwam -1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a second discovery at the Spinwam -1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 20.5mmcfd of gas and 117bpd of oil. Notably, first discovery at Spinwam -1 was announced in late Feb’25, with the latest find bringing cumulative production potential to 33.4mmcfd of gas and 137bpd of oil. We estimate Spinwam -1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR3.48/sh for MARI and PkR0.62/sh for OGDC.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) : 4QCY24 Result Review Record earnings on higher sales and improved margins - By AKD Research

Mar 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, reporting consolidated earnings of PkR13.6bn (EPS: PkR6.5), compared to PkR10.0bn (EPS: PkR4.8) in SPLY, an increase of 36%YoY. The said growth is primarily attributed to higher sales and improved gross margins. The earnings came in line with our expectations. Alongside the result, company announced a final cash dividend of PkR4.25/sh, taking the full-year dividend to PkR7.0/sh.
  • Revenue stood at PkR85.9bn, a 16%YoY increase from PkR74.0bn in SPLY. The said growth is driven by increase in retention prices across the product line, with quarterly avg. prices rising 26%/23%/9%YoY for Urea, CAN, and NP, respectively. Additionally, sales volumes for Urea, CAN, and NP increased by 1%/1%/48%YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.5% from 30.3% in SPLY, mainly due to the increase in retention prices and the availability of comparatively low-cost gas for the company’s Sadiqabad plant.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto sales continue momentum in Feb’25 - By AKD Research

Mar 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • In Feb’25, the auto sector witnessed a surge in volumes, up 5%YoY, with total industry sales reaching 14,091 units. The incline in sales was largely attributable to a 24%YoY increase in passenger car and LCVs sales.
  • Segment-wise, passenger cars with engine capacities of 1000cc & above emerged as the top-performing segment, clocking in at 4,700 units (up 19%YoY), primarily attributable to increased sales of Fortuner & IMVs.
  • Amongst the major OEMs, INDU/HCAR posted growth of 28%/35%YoY, respectively.
Economy: Subdued economic activity and low inflation justify 100bps rate cut - By AKD Research

Mar 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • We anticipate SBP to lower interest rates by 100bps due to subdued economic activity, contraction in money and declining trade numbers.
  • We project positive real interest rates to remain around 7.0% based on our 12-M forward inflation forecast that are currently standing at 1,048bps in Feb’25.
  • Monetary easing on the back of improving macroeconomic situation and IMF Extended Fund Facility would increase appeal for equities, in our view.
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