Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 20 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • CHCC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,107mn (EPS: PKR 10.84) in 2QFY25, reflecting a decline of 27% QoQ
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 10,193mn, indicating an increase of 6% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 34%, representing a decrease of 6.1ppt QoQ and 0.7ppt YoY
Cherat Cement Company Ltd. (CHCC): 2QFY25 Result Review — Earnings beat expectations on higher other income - By AKD Research

Feb 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cherat Cement Company Ltd. (CHCC) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting profitability of PkR2.3bn (EPS: PkR11.7), up 22%YoY from PkR1.9bn (EPS: PkR9.6) in SPLY. Earnings came slightly above our expectations due to higher-than-anticipated other income. Along with the results, company announced half-yearly dividend of PkR1.5/sh.
  • On a sequential basis, earnings declined by 21%QoQ, primarily due to tax reversal of PkR720mn booked in the prior quarter following a Supreme Court ruling against the retrospective reduction of tax credit from 10% to 5% on machinery imports for FY19.
  • Revenue inclined by 4%YoY to PkR10.6bn, where 10%YoY increase in retention prices outweighed the 5%YoY fall in company offtakes during the quarter.
Cherat Cement (CHCC) Result Review: CHCC 2QFY25 EPS Rs11.7, DPS Rs1.5 - By Sherman Research

Feb 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Cherat Cement (CHCC) announced 2QFY25 result today wherein company posted net earnings of Rs2.3bn (EPS of Rs11.7) as compared to Rs1.9bn (EPS of Rs9.6) during the same period last year (up 22%YoY). The result remained lower than our estimate mainly due to lower than expected gross margins. Along with the result, company announced cash dividend of Rs1.5/share.
  • During 2QFY25, CHCC’s topline increased to Rs10.6bn as compared to Rs10.2bn during the last year (up 4%YoY). Despite decline in volumetric sales (down 7%YoY), rise in topline is due to elevated cement prices.
  • CHCC’s gross margin clocked in at 36% during 2QFY25 as compared to 35% during the same period last year. The increase in margins is due to better retention prices during the period.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 20 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • CHCC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,107mn (EPS: PKR 10.84) in 2QFY25, reflecting a decline of 27% QoQ
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 10,193mn, indicating an increase of 6% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 34%, representing a decrease of 6.1ppt QoQ and 0.7ppt YoY
Pakistan Cement: CHCC & LUCK: 2QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Jan 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QFY25 earning expectations for Cherat Cement Company Ltd (CHCC) and Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK). We anticipate CHCC to post earnings of Rs10.1/sh., up 5% YoY. The growth is despite a 10% YoY decline in local dispatches for the company, which will likely be offset by higher retention prices in the North and the absence of royalty charge.
  • We expect LUCK to post an EPS of Rs20.2, down 13% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in gross margins of 3.9ppts owing to an increase of exports in the sales mix (39% in 2QFY25 vs 26% in 2QFY24), and a drop in other income of 18% YoY. On a consolidated basis, we expect LUCK to post an EPS of Rs63.7, +6% YoY.
  • CHCC and LUCK are well-positioned to benefit from the lack of royalty charges, unlike Punjab-based companies that face such charges.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research

Apr 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
  • Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
  • MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.
Economy: Trade Tensions Trigger a Global Sell-Off - By AHCML Research

Apr 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Global stock markets tumbled after a surprise move by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced new tariffs on imports, sparking fresh fears of a trade war. Countries like China responded with their own import duties, intensifying global tensions. Investors are now worried that escalating trade barriers could hurt global growth, profits, and jobs. Stock markets across Asia, Europe, and U.S. futures have all dropped sharply, as fear and uncertainty take the lead over company fundamentals. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for signs of de-escalation from world leaders.
  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recently faced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating global trade tensions and domestic economic factors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plummeted over 5%, triggering a temporary halt in trading. This sharp decline was largely a reaction to the U.S. government's implementation of new tariffs on imports, which unsettled global markets and prompted widespread investor concern.
  • The imposition of these tariffs has raised fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting investor sentiment worldwide. Pakistan, facing a steep 29% tariff on its exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable. In response, the Pakistani government announced plans to send a delegation to Washington to negotiate relief from these tariffs.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: Pakistan’s Current Account Cumulative surplus overshadows the monthly deficit - By AHCML Research

Mar 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 12mn in Feb’25 compared to deficit of USD 399mn in Jan’25. Moreover, CA balance was in surplus of USD 71mn in Feb’24.
  • Exports of goods reduced by 13% MoM to USD 2,593mn in Feb’25, similarly, imports reduced by 8% MoM to USD 5,023mn, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 2,430mn, down by a 1% MoM.
  • Exports of services grew by a meagre 2% MoM, reaching USD 709mn, while imports of services reduced by 1% MoM to USD 1,013mn, reducing the deficit on balance of services to USD 304mn.
Economy: SBP Keeps Benchmark Rate at 12%, Balancing Growth and External Account Stability - By AHCML Research

Mar 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% in the current monetary policy review. This decision reflects a careful balance in response to evolving economic conditions, particularly in light of inflation, external sector challenges, and growing signs of economic recovery.
  • The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explained that inflation in February 2025 came in lower than anticipated, largely due to a drop in both food and energy prices. However, the Committee cautioned that while inflation has eased, there are still risks related to the volatility in these prices. Core inflation, in particular, remains stubbornly high, which means any rebound in food and energy prices could reverse the current downward trend in overall inflation.
  • Despite the inflation concerns, economic activity has picked up, as seen in indicators like automobile sales, cement consumption, and the growth in private sector credit.
Cement: Results review 2QFY25: PAT up by 54% YoY - By AHCML Research

Mar 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The 2QFY25 financial results of 15 listed cement companies reflected strong growth in profitability, driven by higher dispatches, improved margins, and lower finance costs. The sector reported a cumulative PAT of PKR 34,749 million, up 54% YoY and 46% QoQ.
  • Net sales stood at PKR 196,657 million, up 21% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by a 23% QoQ increase in total dispatches.
  • Gross margins recorded at 33%, up 3ppt QoQ and 5ppt YoY, primarily due to reduction in international coal prices.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Oil Marketing Companies: Exploration Sector Performance 2QFY25 -- By AHCML Research

Mar 5 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The exploration sector revealed a mixed performance during 2QFY25, companies has posted net sales and PAT of ~PKR 217.32bn and ~PKR 87.51bn in 2QFY25, down by 13.23% YoY and 37.33% YoY, respectively. major companies include OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
  • The companies’ profitability was negatively impacted by lower realized prices, forced curtailment by SNGPL and UPL and absence of tax rebate which was in SPLY.
  • As the negative price variance stems from the PKR appreciation against the USD, averaging PKR 278/USD in 2QFY25 versus PKR 287/USD in the corresponding period, alongside a decline in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 87/bbl to USD 76/bbl over the same timeframe.
Pakistan Banks: Performance CY’24: Rate cut Headwinds Hindered the Headings - By AHCML Research

Mar 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The combined profit after tax of the top five banks—HBL, UBL, NBP, MCB, and ABL— deteriorated by 5.5%YoY to PKR82bn in 4QCY24, compared to PKR87bn in 4QCY23.
  • In 2024, Pakistan’s banking sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching historic milestones despite facing economic headwinds. UBL stood firm, delivering an impressive profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 75.78 billion, a testament to its strength in a challenging year. However, the journey wasn’t without hurdles—banks had to contend with a sharp 1,000 basis points cut in the policy rate, which put pressure on net interest margins and profitability.
  • In CY’24, Net Interest Income (NII) declined by approximately 6.6%YoY albeit witnessed an uptick of 15% on QoQ basis. The drop was primarily driven by the cuts in the policy rate and declining yields on investment assets. However, banks strategically shifted their focus to nonfunded income sources, which showed a 48% increase in 4QCY’24 compared to the same period last year (SPLY), a notable 68% rise on quarterly basis, and a 61.6%YoY growth in CY’24.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
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