Habib Bank (HBL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • Habib Bank (HBL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance for 2024 and future outlook.
  • HBL's deposits grew by 6% YoY to Rs4.37trn in 2024. Management expects depositsto grow by 17-18% in 2025 due to the low base.
  • HBL's advances grew by 31% to Rs2.435trn, taking the gross ADR to 59% in 2024. For 2025, management expects advances growth to be 12-13%.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 4QCY24 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 4QCY24, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR14.4bn (EPS: PkR9.8) for the quarter (down 3%YoY/flat on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced final cash dividend of PkR4.25/share, taking total CY24 dividend to PkR16.25/sh (vs. PKR9.5sh in CY23).
  • Total deposits grew by 5.5% from Dec’23 to ~PKR 4.4 trn, with domestic deposits rising by PKR180 bn (5%), primarily driven by an increase in current accounts (PKR 176 bn). Average domestic deposits saw a significant YoY increase of PKR 627 Bn, mainly supported by PKR 405 Bn in low cost deposits. International deposits also expanded to $2.2 Bn, reflecting a $192 million increase over Dec’23. Bank expects 17-18% growth in deposits during CY25
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 20 2025


Insight Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook of the bank. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • The bank retained its leadership in managing trade volumes and consumer lending segments.
  • In response to a question about the transition to Islamic banking, management stated that currently, one-third of the bank's operations are already Islamic. Moving forward, the bank remains committed to adhering to SBP’s guidelines for a complete shift toward Islamic banking.
Habib Bank (HBL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • Habib Bank (HBL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance for 2024 and future outlook.
  • HBL's deposits grew by 6% YoY to Rs4.37trn in 2024. Management expects depositsto grow by 17-18% in 2025 due to the low base.
  • HBL's advances grew by 31% to Rs2.435trn, taking the gross ADR to 59% in 2024. For 2025, management expects advances growth to be 12-13%.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR9.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • HBL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR14.6bn (EPS: PKR9.8) vs. PAT of PKR15.9bn (EPS: PKR10.1) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and other income.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR60.3bn in 4QCY24, down by 6%/5% YoY/QoQ. The decline is attributable to falling asset yields.
  • Non markup income inched up by 76%/69% YoY/QoQ, driven by fee income and gain on securities. Moreover, the bank recorded other income of ~PKR14.5bn in 4QCY24, attributable to sale of branches.

Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Result Review: HBL 4QCY24 EPS Rs9.1, DPS Rs4.25 - By Sherman Research

Feb 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited (HBL) announced 4QCY24 results today wherein the bank posted an unconsolidated profit-after-tax of Rs13.4bn (EPS Rs9.1) down 5%YoY. The decline in earnings is primarily due to decrease in net interest earned, higher provisioning during the period and higher non-interest expenses.
  • HBL’s interest earned clocked in at Rs176bn, down 7%YoY due to decrease in total earning asset yield, down by 3.6ppt reported at 15% during 4QCY24, indicating the impact of a 1,000bps cut in the policy rate during CY24.
  • Bank’s interest expense reached Rs121bn, down 9%YoY in 4QCY24 owing to decline in policy rate as total cost of funds lowered to 9.44%, down 2.54ppt.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 9.8; PAT down 2%YoY/up 2%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 9.8. 4QCY24 PAT down 2%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 39.9. CY24 PAT PKR 57.8Bn – above expectations. HBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 4.25, taking the full year payout to PKR 16.3/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 6%YoY/5%QoQ on account of lower net interest margin due to reduction in the policy rate by the SBP during the year, resulting in drop asset yields offsetting the decrease in the cost of funds.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 86%YoY/69%QoQ. Wherein, other income was up substantially on a sequential basis on the back of gain on closure/sale of branches amounting to PKR 14.3Bn. Fee income was up 4%QoQ. Capital gains down 27%QoQ.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Opportunities on the horizon - By Insight Research

Feb 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • Since Jun’23, HBL has underperformed its peer banks, primarily due to its higher operating and credit expenses, coupled with a lower share of current accounts in the deposit mix. Additionally, the bank’s strategic focus on future growth rather than aggressive payouts has kept its stock performance below peers, in our view. However, with a sharp decline in headline inflation and a subsequent reduction in policy rates, HBL stands to benefit as its cost of deposits will decline rapidly due to the lower share of current account, while lower inflation would keep operating expenses in check.
  • We have revised our estimates for HBL, incorporating the impact of higher taxation on banks, which has been offset by lower credit loss provisions. We maintain our BUY stance on the bank, with a DDM & P/BV based target price of PKR199/sh for Dec’25. The stock is currently trading at a P/E & P/B of 4.6x & 0.6x on CY25 estimates, with a DY of ~10%.
  • Key risk to our investment thesis are i) Lower than estimated deposit growth, ii) Deterioration in asset quality, iii) Higher than estimated operating cost and iv) Abrupt changes in regulatory framework.
Chenab Limited (CHBL): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Jan 27 2025



  • In FY24, Chenab Limited (CHBL) reported a net loss of PKR 326.21 million (LPS: PKR 2.84) compared to a net loss of PKR 405.14 million (LPS: PKR 3.52) in the SPLY. In 1QFY25, the company recorded a net loss of PKR 111.82 million (LPS: PKR 0.97), higher than the net loss of PKR 45.03 million (LPS: PKR 0.39) in the SPLY.
  • The management disclosed that Chenab Limited is operating at 25% unit utilization. To optimize production capacity, the company is engaged in toll manufacturing of fabrics for the local market.
  • Gross profit for FY24 stood at PKR 10.87 million, impacted by higher fixed costs. The increase in freight costs, driven by the Red Sea crisis, further escalated selling and distribution expenses.
Pakistan Banks: Earnings Revised; MEBL and HBL Preferred Picks Maintained – By Topline Research

Nov 29 2024


Topline Securities


  • We have revisited our banking universe earnings following recent developments including (1) changes in the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) for both conventional and Islamic banks, (2) key takeaways from recent discussions with banks and analyst briefing meetings, and (3) revision in our deposit growth rate assumption.
  • To recall, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has removed the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) requirement for all conventional banks on deposits from financial institutions, public sector enterprises, and public limited companies. The MDR will now only be applicable to deposits of individual account holders. While in case of Islamic Banks, Central bank has imposed minimum profit sharing rate on saving deposits of individuals, details are mentioned on next page.
  • This shall be effective from January 01, 2025
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 29.3; PAT up 1xYoY/39%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 29.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 1xYoY. UBL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 11/sh. The Bank also plans to sub-divide the face value of its shares in the ratio of 2:1 subject to approval by shareholders.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2xYoY/24%QoQ, in line with expectations amid significant drop in interest expenses due to the lower cost of funds on the back of build-up in current accounts and the revised MDR regime. Deposits are up ~29% YTD.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Down 20%YoY/38%QoQ, owing to ~77% drop in capital gains compared to 4QCY24
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 LSMI down 5.9%MoM/down 3.5%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) down 5.9%MoM in Feb’25, due to decline from key sectors i.e. Furniture (-56%), Machinery & Equipment (-34%) and Chemical Products (-19%). Whereas, top contributors were Other Transport Equipment (38%), Automobiles (31%), Coke & Petroleum Products (23%) and Tobacco (18%), respectively. 8MFY25 LSMI was down 1.9%YoY.
  • Textile production declined by ~0.33%YoY in Feb’25 attributable to decline in production of jute goods, woolen & worsted cloth and woolen blankets by 36.65%YoY, 3.66%YoY and 94.76%YoY, respectively— mainly due to the lower domestic and international demand driven by a seasonal shift that reduced the overall requirement of these products. Whereas, on a monthly basis it significantly declined by ~3.24%MoM, mainly due to the decline in production of jute goods, terry & towels, woolen & carpet yarn and woolen blankets by 19.56%MoM, 7.34%MoM, 4.42%MoM and 94.21%MoM, respectively
  • Automobile production down ~5%MoM in Feb’25. Wherein, Jeeps & cars production declined by 10%MoM. Similarly, LCVs production down ~13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, production of LCVs, Jeeps & Cars, Trucks and Buses went up by ~23%, 26%, 1.8x and 48% on the back of controlled manufacturing costs, stable tariffs, eased import restrictions on CKD units and recovering demand due to improving macros.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): Earnings Hold Steady as PTA Margins Remain Underwhelming - By IIS Research

Apr 16 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We expect LOTCHEM to report a PAT of PKR 779 million (EPS: PKR 0.51) for 1QCY25, compared to LPS 0.01 in last quarter. This improvement comes as operations normalize following a one-month plant turnaround last quarter. PTA sales volumes are also anticipated to recover to typical levels. However, PTAPX margins have averaged USD 100/ton this quarter, lower than the USD 122/ton in the past six years and the long term average of USD 110/ton, largely due to global dynamics and subdued international demand.
  • Additionally, this quarter is affected by the recent gas price hike. Where, the gas price for captive power plants has increased to Rs 3,500 per MMBtu, effective February 1, 2025. While this increase poses some pressure, it's worth noting that LOTCHEM’s cost structure and margins are largely driven by international PTA-PX spreads. Notably, in CY24, only around 7% of COGS was from oil, gas, and electricity expenses. Furthermore, the company is in the process of being acquired, as AsiaPak Investments Limited and Montage Oil DMCC entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire a 75.01% stake in LOTCHEM.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation likely above key averages - By JS Research

Apr 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the gain to close at 116,776, up 385 points DoD. Volumes stood at 479mn shares compared to 485mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 117,362 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. However, any downside will find support at the 30-DMA which is currently at 115,631. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 116,493 and 117,210 levels, respectively.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank (UBL): Recorded highest ever quarterly earnings in 1Q2025 - By Topline Research

Apr 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • United Bank (UBL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded highest ever quarterly earnings of Rs36bn (EPS of Rs28.9), up 126% YoY and 39% QoQ.
  • UBL's 1Q2025 earnings exceeded industry expectations, which ranged between Rs12.8–22.9 per share, and were also the highest ever recorded for any bank in a single quarter.
  • The significant jump in in earnings is due to increase in Net Interest Income (NII).
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Pakistan Bank: Banks earnings to fall 19% YoY and 12% QoQ in 1Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post a 12% QoQ decline in earnings in 1Q2025, amid a fall in Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to decrease by 11% QoQ to Rs279bn due to (1) a decline in the average policy rate from 15.2% in 4Q2024 to 12.3% in 1Q2025, and (2) 10% QoQ decline in advances growth.
  • As per SBP’s weekly publication, advances of the banking sector declined by 10% QoQ from Rs15.6trn as of Dec 27, 2024, to Rs13.9trn as of Feb 28, 2025
Economy: Falling Commodity Prices amidst tariff war Impact on Pakistan Economy and Stock Market - By Topline Research

Apr 8 2025


Topline Securities


  • In the aftermath of tariff war, initiated by US and retaliated by other nations, the Bloomberg commodity index has declined 8% in last 3 sessions. Within this, crude oil prices (brent) and Richards Bay Coal Future (April) are down by 14.3% to US$64.2/bbl and 6.1% to US$88.5/ton.
  • The falling commodity prices shall impact on Pakistan’s macros including external accounts mainly current account, inflation, and fiscal accounts amongst others. We have run sensitivity analysis of decline in oil prices by US$10/barrel, this brings down oil related import bill (including RLNG) to the extent of US$2-2.1bn. In addition to oil, Pakistan can also save US$250- 300mn annually from coal, LPG and Palm oil, if lower levels of prices persists. Oil prices also affects inflation directly and with US$10/barrel decline in oil, the inflation will be directly impacted by 20bps, assuming benefit passed on to the consumers. Details are below;
  • Pakistan Imports 20mn tons of crude and refined oil annually: During FY24, Pakistan imported 9mn tons of crude and 10.3mn tons of refined oil (HSD, Petrol etc.), translating into total ~145mn barrels of equivalent oil. Every US$1/barrel decline in oil prices will reduce import bill by US$145-150mn and every US$10 per barrel will bring savings of US$1.5bn on petroleum oil front.
Insurance: Listed Non-Life Insurance profits up 35% in 2024 to Rs17.4bn - By Topline Research

Apr 7 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's listed Non-Life (General) Insurance companies reported profits of Rs17.4bn in 2024 which is up by 35% YoY compared to 2023 and better than last 5-year CAGR of 19%.
  • Higher profits are led by better underwriting results, and higher Investment Income.
  • In 2024 Net Premiums increased by 25% YoY to reach Rs68.6bn compared to 2023. Net premiums have increased due to growth in all major segments including Fire & Property, Motor, Marine.
Fertilizer: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308K tons, down 54% YoY - By Topline Research

Apr 4 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Mar-2025 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54% YoY compared to 671k tons in Mar-2024.
  • Similarly, Urea sales is expected to decline by 11% MoM. This will take 1Q2025 offtake to 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY compared to 1.8mn tons in 1Q2024.
  • This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 837k tons in Mar-2025, up from 536k tons in Feb-2025.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Pharmaceuticals: Pakistan Listed Pharma Sector Analysis 2024 Deregulation improved sales and margins - By Topline Research

Mar 27 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan listed pharmaceuticals sector’s earnings were up 3.1x to Rs24.8bn in calendar year 2024. This jump in profitability is primarily attributed to higher net sales and improved gross margins.
  • Net sales increased by 15% YoY to Rs318bn in 2024, primarily driven by a increase in drug prices.
  • To recall, in Feb-2024 the government approved the deregulation of non-essential drug prices, which allowed companies to increase prices without any cap as it was under previous drug policy to increase the prices of all other non-essential drugs by up to the full increase in CPI (with a cap of 10%). While prices of essential drugs are still capped with formula of up to 70% of the increase in CPI (with cap of 7%).
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases
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