Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): Staying the course - By Insight Research

Feb 24 2025


Insight Securities


  • Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) has consistently been one of the highest dividend-yielding script, maintaining an average payout ratio of 80% over the past five years. Its revenue is primarily driven by oil sales, insulating it from circular debt issues and enabling a strong dividend payout. In uncertain times, POL stands out among its peers due to visibility of its earning and dividend outlook. In a declining interest rate environment, where returns on fixed-income instruments have witnessed a steep decline, POL remains particularly attractive with its 11% dividend yield coupled with its upside potential, making it a compelling choice for passive investors.
  • The company is also working to sustain production levels and mitigate natural declines. It has increased production from the Jhandial field, rising from an FY24 average of 118bbl of oil and 1.4MMSCFD of gas to 814bbl of oil and 8.0MMSCFD of gas, respectively. However, with 65% of its oil production dependent on the TAL block, POL’s output remains closely tied to its joint venture partners. TAL block operator, MOL, is taking measures to arrest the decline in production, with Razgir coming online and drilling underway at Makori Deep-3.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on POL with reserves based Dec’25 target price of PKR709/sh, implying 35% potential upside. The company holds a strong cash position of PKR360/sh, reinforcing its ability to sustain high dividend payouts
Pakistan Economy: SBP holds policy rate at 12%, pausing the easing cycle - By JS Research

Mar 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained policy rate at 12% in the MPC meeting held yesterday, pausing the easing cycle despite rapidly declining inflation. In the last six MPC meetings, consecutive rate cuts brought the total reduction to 1,000bps from a peak of 22%.
  • The MPC’s cautious stance is on the back of emerging pressures on the external account, driven by rising imports and weak financial inflows. It should also be noted that core inflation is persistent at an elevated level, and thus any uptick in the food and energy prices may lead to rise in inflation going forward.
  • SBP Governor, in the post monetary policy briefing session, apprised that most key economic indicators have improved in this year. SBP’s FX reserves have also risen on a YoY basis, although a decline has been observed of late due to debt repayments, as there has been a delay in some planned inflows which may be unlocked post IMF review
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate left unchanged at 12.0% - By Foundation Research

Mar 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • SBP surprised markets on Monday by keeping the policy rate steady at 12.0%, defying expectations of a 50-100 basis point cut. Although February's inflation rate came in lower than expected, the SBP cited concerns over volatile food prices, persistent core inflation, and renewed external account pressures as reasons for maintaining the rate. The central bank believes real interest rate remains sufficiently high to support ongoing macroeconomic stability. We believe that the pause was also warranted by a desire to appease the visiting IMF mission which is undertaking the 1st review of the USD 7.0Bn facility, and concerns that the full impact of the 1,000bps cut in policy rate over the last 6 reviews would manifest itself in the form of higher growth and imports over the next 6-12 months and disbalance the external account.
  • February's CPI inflation dropped to 1.5% YoY, its lowest level since Sept’15, primarily due to a decrease in food prices resulting from ample agricultural supplies. However, core inflation in rural areas remained high, with double-digit growth indicating persistent underlying price pressures. Looking ahead, SBP expects headline inflation to decline further before gradually rising and stabilizing within the 5-7% target range.
  • Despite the ongoing decline in manufacturing output, the SBP remains optimistic about economic growth, pointing to encouraging high-frequency indicators and reduced risks to Rabi crops. The SBP expects economic activity to pick up pace during the 1HCY25, driven by easing financial conditions and the delayed impact of previous policy rate cuts. The GDP growth forecast for FY25 remains unchanged at 2.5-3.5%. This outlook follows a modest 0.9% YoY economic expansion in 1QFY25.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): Staying the course - By Insight Research

Feb 24 2025


Insight Securities


  • Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) has consistently been one of the highest dividend-yielding script, maintaining an average payout ratio of 80% over the past five years. Its revenue is primarily driven by oil sales, insulating it from circular debt issues and enabling a strong dividend payout. In uncertain times, POL stands out among its peers due to visibility of its earning and dividend outlook. In a declining interest rate environment, where returns on fixed-income instruments have witnessed a steep decline, POL remains particularly attractive with its 11% dividend yield coupled with its upside potential, making it a compelling choice for passive investors.
  • The company is also working to sustain production levels and mitigate natural declines. It has increased production from the Jhandial field, rising from an FY24 average of 118bbl of oil and 1.4MMSCFD of gas to 814bbl of oil and 8.0MMSCFD of gas, respectively. However, with 65% of its oil production dependent on the TAL block, POL’s output remains closely tied to its joint venture partners. TAL block operator, MOL, is taking measures to arrest the decline in production, with Razgir coming online and drilling underway at Makori Deep-3.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on POL with reserves based Dec’25 target price of PKR709/sh, implying 35% potential upside. The company holds a strong cash position of PKR360/sh, reinforcing its ability to sustain high dividend payouts
Habib Metropolitan Bank Limited (HMB): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 5.6; PAT up 12%YoY/down 21%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 5.6. 4QCY24 PAT up 12%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 23.8. CY24 PAT up 2%YoY – in line with expectations. HMB also announced a final cash dividend of PKR 4.5/sh., taking the full year payout to PKR 12.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 2%YoY/5%QoQ with the Bank most likely benefitting from the re-pricing lag between assets and liabilities following reduction in the policy rate by the SBP, with the cost of funds falling more than the interest income.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 42%YoY/12%QoQ. Wherein, fee income remained flat on a sequential basis. However, income from foreign exchange and capital gains were up 20%QoQ. Other income was also up substantially during 4QCY24.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Feb 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PVC prices dropped from USD 948/ton in June 2024 to USD 798/ton by year-end, which was a record low in recent years. This decline, driven by normalization of freight rates and supply chain constraints, put pressure on core delta which stood at USD 337/ton at the end of CY24, directly impacting EPCL’s margins and contributing to its poor financial performance.
  • Despite a tough year marked by a slowdown in the construction sector, domestic PVC demand grew by 8% due to cheaper imports from Indonesia & China. PVC sales volumes gradually increased on a QoQ basis by 10% on average due to EPCL's targeted pricing strategies, incentives and market confidence-building measures through which it sustained its market position.
  • Additionally, EPCL regained market share in caustic soda by onboarding new customers. Although domestic margins remained attractive, the Company maintained exports to support FX inflows. Supply to domestic Export-Oriented Units was sustained at 80%.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): EPCL: 4QCY24 EPS arrives at PKR 2.6, CY24 EPS to clocks-in at PKR 0.5 - By Taurus Research

Feb 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • EPCL reported a revenue of PKR 21.2Bn in 4QCY24, reflecting an increase of 11% YoY and 6% QoQ. Gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 14%, a significant decline from 27% in 4QCY23 but a notable recovery from the 5% margin in 3QCY24. The yearly dip in margins can be attributed to rising raw material costs driven by a surge in gas prices and lower core delta.
  • After struggling with losses throughout the first three quarters of CY24, EPCL achieved a turnaround with a positive PAT of PKR 2.3Bn in 4QCY24 mainly attributable to tax reversals and higher margins.
  • However, EPCL’s annual PAT for CY24 fell sharply to PKR 610Mn, a 93% plunge from PKR 9.2Bn in CY23. Wherein, profitability was mainly hit by subdued PVC demand especially from the construction sector and margin pressures due to surge in gas prices.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Tax reversal & improved margins drive profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 11 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR2.3), a 40%YoY decline from PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR3.7) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, primarily due to a tax reversal and better-than-expected gross margins. However, the annual decline in earnings is driven by lower gross margins and higher finance cost. On a sequential basis, the recovery from a loss of PkR2.0bn (LPS: PkR0.8) in 3Q is mainly due to improved gross margins.
  • Revenue increased by 11%YoY to PkR21.3bn, up from PkR19.2bn in SPLY, as higher PVC offtakes offset the impact of lower product prices.
  • Gross margins contracted to 14.1% from 26.9% in SPLY, primarily due to higher energy costs. Notably, gas prices for captive and process increased by 45%/15%YoY, averaging PkR3,000/2,150/mmbtu in 4QCY24, respectively, compared to an avg. of PkR2,067/1,867/mmbtu in SPLY. However, gross margins remained higher than expected, and we await further clarity on this.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at Rs1.95, down 37% YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL PA) profit clocked-in at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs1.95 in 4QCY24 against profit of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs3.11) in 4QCY23.
  • This cumulates into CY24 profit of Rs610mn (EPS Rs0.67) compared to profit of Rs9.2bn (EPS Rs7.63) in CY23.
  • The company did not announce any dividend during CY24
Engro Polymer and Chemicals Limited (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR2.3 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • EPCL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR2.1bn (EPS: PKR2.3) vs. PAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR4.4) in SPLY. The result is significantly above our expectation due to higher than estimated revenue, gross margins and tax credit in 4QCY24.
  • In 4QCY24, revenue increased by 11%/6% YoY/QoQ possibly due to better volumetric sales coupled with higher caustic soda prices.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 14.1%, up by 860bps QoQ, possibly due to premium charged over import parity price as core delta remained flat QoQ. However, we await further clarity on this.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025



  • Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
  • In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL):1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 0.04; PAT of ~PKR 13Mn - By Taurus Reseach

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY25 EPS: PKR 0.04; PAT: PKR 13Mn, down 98%YoY over the SPLY.
  • Revenue is expected to grow slightly on a sequential basis due to seasonal pickup in demand. However, YoY topline may decline by 5% owing to the revised PPA structure, wherein ROE component has been shifted to the 'take-and-pay' basis, reducing guaranteed capacity revenues.
  • Finance costs & income are expected to undergo a structural shift – EPQL previously recorded sizable finance income from late payment surcharge, which has ceased following the full settlement of PKR 8.4Bn receivables. As a result, net finance income is expected to convert into finance cost, although lower short-term borrowings should limit the overall impact.
Pakistan Cement: FCCL & KOHC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) and Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC).
  • We expect FCCL and KOHC to post earnings of Rs1.02/share and Rs12.89/share, reflecting growth of 41% and 23% YoY, respectively. This improvement is primarily driven by higher gross margins — up 3.3ppt YoY for FCCL and 8.5ppts for KOHC — supported by higher retention prices and lower coal costs during 3QFY25 compared to 3QFY24.
  • The proposed increase in limestone royalty rates in KPK, aligning them with those in Punjab, is expected to weigh negatively on both companies. However, reduction in power tariffs may partially offset this impact, given both companies' significant reliance on the national grid.
Pakistan Economy: Tariffs put USD 115Trn world economy at risk - By Taurus Research

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Global equity markets plunged enormously in the aftermath of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on about 90 countries by the US President Donald Trump, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk. Wherein, the new tariff rates seemed to have been somewhat ludicrously calculated; inflicting disparate punishment on several countries, as they scrambled to renegotiate.
  • The tariffs include a 10% base-line tariff on all imports into the US, with additional tariffs of up to 34% on China (now raised to 145%), 20% on the EU, 29% on Pakistan, 26% on India and so on.
  • Accordingly, the MSCI World & the MSCI Emerging Markets Indices, which cover 85% of the free-float adjusted large-cap and mid-cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, respectively, were down ~11% owing to the announcement of the tariffs, with trillions of dollars being wiped out from the financial markets globally—amidst heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk.
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25 Preview: Lower offtakes to dent profitability - By Insight Research

Apr 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • As per NFDC, urea offtakes decreased by 38% YoY to clock in at 1.13mn tons in 1QCY25, from 1.82mn tons in SPLY. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52% YoY to reach at 143kt, compared to 299kt in SPLY. This decrease is primarily attributable to weak farm economics. Due to steep decline in offtakes, we estimate EFERT/FFC/FATIMA to post EPS of PKR2.0/9.1/3.3 in 1QCY25, respectively.
  • FFC is expected to post unconsolidated PAT of PKR12.9bn (EPS: PKR9.1) in 1QCY25, reflecting a decline of ~13%/9% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by lower offtakes. In 1QCY25, FFC's urea offtakes decrease by 34%/36% YoY/QoQ to reach at 537kt, compared to 819kt in the SPLY and 839kt in previous quarter. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52%/77% YoY/QoQ. FFC's revenue is expected to clock in at PKR60.8bn, down from PKR104.9bn in SPLY. Gross margins are expected to increase by ~11ppts YoY, amid increase in product prices. Similarly on QoQ basis, gross margins improved by ~10ppts due to a one-off adjustment in the previous quarter following the FFBL merger. Additionally, company’s finance cost is anticipated to decrease by 35% YoY, primarily due to decline in interest rates. Other income is expected to witness a decrease of ~46% YoY, amid lower dividend income and interest rates. Whereas same is expected to increase by ~14% QoQ due to dividend income in the quarter and increase in cash & cash equivalent. Along with the result, we expect company to announce a cash dividend of PKR7.3/sh.
Pakistan Economy: Power tariff got slashed - By Insight Research

Apr 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, Prime Minister has announced a reduction in electricity tariffs by PKR7.41/unit for residential consumers and PKR7.59/unit for industrial users. This long-awaited relief had been widely anticipated in recent months, as rising administered energy prices were significantly eroding consumer purchasing power and were negatively impacting the overall economic activity. According to government sources, the IMF has endorsed this plan.
  • To address the issue, the government initiated measures such as revising/terminating contracts with IPPs and increasing the rate of PDL on petroleum products by PKR10/ltr last month, to finance tariff differential subsidy.
  • The primary contributors to the PKR7/unit tariff reduction includes termination of Power Purchase Agreements with certain IPPs along with renegotiation regarding hybrid take and pay model with others. Furthermore, the government plans to utilize the incremental revenue from the recent PKR10/ltr hike in PDL to fund Tariff Differential Subsidy. Moreover, Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of ~PKR1.9/unit, effective from Apr’25, along with expected fuel cost adjustments, will further support the government in implementing the announced relief of ~PKR7/unit.
Economy: Mar’25 CPI likely to clock in at 0.65% - By Insight Research

Mar 27 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is set to fall below 1% mark in Mar’25 and is estimated to clock in at ~0.65%. The decline in CPI is mainly driven by lower food prices and is further aided by decline in housing and transport index. On MoM basis, inflation is likely to inch up by 0.8%, amid higher food prices due to Ramzan seasonality. While housing and transport index is likely to decline MoM amid negative FCA in electricity charges and lower motor fuel prices, respectively. This will take 9MFY25 inflation to ~5.4% compared to ~27.2% in SPLY.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomatoes (42.5↑%), Fresh fruits (41.1↑%), Chicken (15.0%↑), Eggs (14.7%↑) & Sugar (11.4%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Onions (20.7%↓), Tea (11.8%↓), Fresh vegetables (8.9%↓), Potatoes (7.3%↓) & Pulse gram (6.7%↓).
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): Defensive play with steady gains - By Insight Research

Mar 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • MCB boasts one of the highest current account mixes in the banking sector. MCB presents a compelling investment case due to its attractive dividend yield and stable strategic approach. The bank has been focusing on building a low-cost deposit base and with interest rates dropping sharply in the last few quarters resulting in narrowing NIMs and the removal of ADR-based taxation, the bank is now more focused on increasing zero-cost deposits in its mix.
  • We maintain our BUY stance on MCB, with a DDM & P/BV based target price of PKR345/sh for Dec’25. The stock is currently trading at a P/E & P/B of 6.9x & 1.3x on CY25 estimates, with a DY of ~13%
  • Key risk to our investment thesis are i) Lower than estimated growth in current accounts, ii) Deterioration in asset quality, iii) Higher than estimated operating expenses and iv) Abrupt changes in regulatory framework.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): Analyst briefing takeaways - By insight Research

Mar 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing.
  • INDU posted a PAT of PKR9.96bn in 1HFY25 compared to PAT of PKR4.96bn in SPLY. The increase in profitability is driven by higher volumetric sales and healthy gross margins.
  • Management stated that improvement in gross margins is attributable to stable exchange rate, reduced fixed cost, higher localization level and efficient energy mix. To highlight, solar constitutes ~25% of total energy requirement.
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL): Solid foundations - By Insight Research

Mar 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on PPL with reserves based Dec’25 target price of PKR280/sh, implying 54% potential upside. With the consecutive increase in gas prices for past four semi-annual revisions, cashflow situation has improved significantly in state owned oil & gas companies where PPL’s cash collection ratio improved to ~100% in 1HFY25 vs. 73% in SPLY. As per 1HFY25 accounts, company’s CFO reached to PKR48.6bn vs. PKR32.1bn in SPLY, attributable to higher recovery from Sui companies.
  • The company's cash flow is expected to remain robust going forward due to higher recoveries from Sui companies. Additionally, IMF program will ensure that the Government will continue to pass on cost pressure to consumer. This will ease the company’s liquidity constraints, enabling it to expand exploration activities, focus on growth-related projects, and provide higher payouts.
  • The Government has taken steps to enhance the viability of the sector and reduce reliance on imports by increasing local production. Any progress in resolving the gas circular debt pileup would be highly beneficial for PPL, as company holds overdue trade debts of PKR544bn (PKR200/sh) from SOEs, as per Dec’24 accounts. Furthermore, Barrick Gold’s feasibility study for Reko Diq highlights a compelling 22% dollarized IRR, reinforcing its potential as a significant value driver for the company. Based on our initial estimates, Reko Diq is projected to contribute PKR87/sh to PPL’s valuation, positioning it as a key catalyst for long-term growth.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Analyst briefing takeaways -By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • Meezan Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • Bank’s deposit has grown at CAGR of ~34% between 2002-2024, compared to industry’s average of 8.5%.
  • During the year, bank opened 47 new branches taking total branches to 1,098
Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.96 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • NCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR231mn (EPS: PKR0.96) vs. LAT of PKR911mn (LPS: PKR3.8) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to higherthan-expected tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR20.7bn (US$74.2mn) compared to PKR20.1bn (US$71.0mn) in SPLY, up by ~3% YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales. However, same is down by ~11% on QoQ basis.
  • Gross margins clocked in at ~11% depicting an increase of ~2.3ppts QoQ, possibly due to operational efficiency and lower cotton prices.
Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR1.6 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • FCCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR1.6) vs. PAT of PKR2.7bn (EPS: PKR1.1) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher-than-expected gross margins.
  • In 2QFY25, revenue increased by 24%/8% YoY/QoQ mainly due to higher volumetric sales and better retention prices. To note, company’s local cement offtakes increased by 17%/14% YoY/QoQ.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 35.8%, up by 314bps/142bps YoY/QoQ, possibly due to optimal energy mix and decline in coal prices.
Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited (GATM): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.93 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • GATM has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR687mn (EPS: PKR0.93) vs. PKR547mn (EPS: PKR0.74) in SPLY, up by 26% YoY. The result is above our expectation due to higher-than-expected gross margin and lower tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR45.68bn compared to PKR41.23bn in SPLY, up by ~11 YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales.
  • In dollar terms, company’s revenue clocked in at US$164.0mn in 2QFY25 vs. US$145.5mn in SPLY, up by ~13 YoY. However, same is down by ~7 QoQ.
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